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Now that every
NFL team has played at least eight games it's
time to run down the second half schedule and see which teams are going
to
surprise us in the second half of the season.
TEAMS SET TO
DECLINE:
Baltimore
Ravens (4-4)
The Ravens
entered the 2007 season with a lot of
expectations heaped on them after their 13-3 season in 2006. After last
night's trashing by the Steelers, fans probably and shouldn't be
hopeful about what's coming in the second half.
Their next two games are against divisional opponents (Cincinnati,
Cleveland). After that they play in San Diego
before hosting the Patriots and the Colts in back-to-back weeks. Games
against Miami
and Seattle give them an opportunity to get up to around eight wins,
but don't
count on a win in week seventeen against the Steelers.
I plotted out
each team's highest lead,
lowest deficit and closing margin on a chart and look for trends. The
relationship between a team's average margin and their average high and
low
tell us a lot about how good each team really is. The Ravens have
suffered from
some fourth quarter woes this year, most notably in weeks two and three
where
they took significant leads only to see them dissolve late in the game.
The
only game they've won this year in dominant fashion was against St.
Louis where they won by 19. These guys are lucky
to
have four wins at this point.
Projected finish: 8-8
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Buffalo
Bills (4-4)
The
Bills have surprised a lot of people by winning four out
of their last five games and almost beating the Dallas Cowboys.
Unfortunately
things won't be getting any better in Buffalo.
They have scored 130 points while giving up 156 this year, indicative
of a
sub-.500 team. Their last two games, both wins, have been above-average
performances that look good on paper but are indicative of a pending
regression
to their mean. Their second half schedule certainly doesn't look easy
as they
play the Patriots, Jaguars, and three NFC East teams.
This
team started 1-4 before their winning streak, including
two games where they took a lead and blew it and two games where they
were
blown out. Their latest three wins were against the Jets, Ravens and
Bengals –
not exactly the upper echelon of NFL teams. Their next game is against
the
winless Dolphins, and it certainly looks like a game that Miami
can win.
Projected
finish: 6-10
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Detroit
Lions (6-2)
The Lions are
coming off of their biggest win of the year, a
44-7 thrashing of the Denver Broncos. The Lions are 6-2 for the first
time
since the late nineties, and hopefully we all remember what happened
that year.
After beating the soon-to-be Super Bowl champion Rams the Lions went
2-6 and
finished with eight wins. Their decline in 2007 won't be quite so
climactic but
will prove that Matt Millen is still the worst GM in the business.
The Lions were
crushed by the Eagles and Redskins already
and have yet to play the best two teams in the NFC East. They will host
both
the Cowboys and Giants, but don't expect wins in either game. The Lions
also
have two games against 7-1 Green Bay.
This is
another team set up for a regression – their success
so far has put them on an unsustainable path and their week ten game at
Arizona
will be a nail-biter. From there it is all downhill. The Lions are
finally
showing some promise and if they can manage their young talent they may
be a
contender in 2009, but to get ten wins in 2007 they'll ruin their
chances for
any shot at the playoffs in 2008.
Projected
finish: 10-6
Other
potential decliners: New England,
Dallas,
Green
Bay, Cleveland,
Kansas
City
TEAMS SET TO
IMPROVE:
Cincinnati
Bengals (2-6)
The Bengals
were picked by many pundits (myself included) to
vie for a playoff spot this year and have been a huge disappointment.
They have
scored 198 points but have given up 244, so if they can improve their
play
defensively they will make a run at the second place spot in the AFC
North.
Their upcoming schedule is a cakewalk, especially weeks 14-17 when they
play St. Louis, San
Francisco,
Cleveland
and Miami.
All four games are winnable, so the season will come down to how well
they play
against Pittsburgh, Baltimore,
Tennessee
and Arizona
(not in that order). Nine wins certainly aren't out of the question.
It seems like
every game the Bengals play is a
back-and-forth shootout. As the defense improves they'll see a huge
difference
by taking larger leads and being able to hold off potential late-game
runs by
the opposing teams.
Projected
finish: 8-
Seattle
Seahawks (4-4)
The 2005 NFC
champs have had a tough time separating from
their divisional opponents this year. The Seahawks should be 5-3
according to
the proprietary Walters Trend Method, and they would be 5-3 if they
hadn't
blown a 15 point lead in their loss to Cleveland
yesterday. Their schedule doesn't get any tougher from here on out with
games
against their three divisional foes, Chicago,
Philadelphia,
Carolina
and Baltimore. They are
the only
team in the AFC West with more points scored than allowed this year
which bodes
well for yet another division championship this year.
Their losses
in weeks five and six have made a huge
difference so far – without those two losses this is a team that has an
improving slope. Ten wins is the least this team should produce in 2007.
Projected
finish: 10-6
Other
potential improvers: Minnesota,
Philadelphia,
Jacksonville
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