8 picks
#31, 63, 94, 129, 162, 238, 240comp, 246comp
Left Tackle
Over the past six seasons, starting in 2004 when he set a then-record single season touchdown mark with 49, Peyton Manning has been sacked just 14.8 times per season. Much of that is because of his skill reading defenses and releasing the football quickly. You would think he had a stalwart left tackle to help him as well, but it is not the case. Ugoh has had three seasons to develop there and his time is just about up in that role for a Super Bowl caliber team. Charles Johnson, tendered as a restricted free agent, is not up to the task either and he should be a primary backup on both sides. Actually, he can play four spots and even tight end in a loaded front. The signing of Adam Terry (Ravens) provides a solid backup on the right side to Diem although he missed 2009 with a knee injury in training camp after logging 18 starts the previous three seasons. Toudouze, an exclusive rights free agent, is another backup who in a pinch could play the left. He has bounced between the practice squad and team roster since 2006. Now that the star line coach Howard Mudd has retired and former tight end Pete Metzelaars has taken over, they can't rely as much on him coaching up lesser players. They need a franchise player on the left side immediately and while I thought they would have to find one in the draft, their reported pursuit of Marcus McNeill (Chargers) at the possible expense of their #31 and #94 overall picks is an option if San Diego does not match the offer sheet.
Interior Offensive Line
There is plenty of youth at guard, but an upgrade in talent could be sought. Lilja was cut, and replaced by the signing of Alleman (Chiefs) in what amounted to a player swap. Federkeil was not tendered as a restricted free agent, and the one time defensive end from a few years back now plays guard and tackle. In a time of change with the departure of Howard Mudd coaching the line, the team could seek out some bigger, stronger run blockers. I can't imagine how impossible this offense would be to stop with a consistent running game while Peyton is still in his prime. Center Jeff Saturday has continued playing at a high level into his mid-30's so it is not crucial for them to worry about a future replacement. If someone crosses their path who also fits their short term needs at guard it might spark their interest.
Defensive Tackle
This is a delicate position to analyze because typically the Colts avoid drafting them high. However, at the moment they are in need of some talent here and given the overall condition of their roster an early pick makes sense. Mind you, when I say they don't take them early I mean it. Since 1990 they have chosen exactly 3 players at the position in the top 100. Larry Tripplett (#42, 2002) played a few seasons, left for Buffalo and had an uneventful career. Quinn Pitcock (#98, 2007) gave them one year and decided football wasn't for him so he retired. Last year they bucked their trend by selecting USC's Fili Moala (#56) and has yet to set the league on fire although let's give him time. At least he hasn't quit the sport. So while there is a need, when it is addressed is debatable considering their track record of seeking out late round picks or preferably rookie free agents (see: Mitch King and John Gill last year) instead of premium picks. In free agency, Antonio Johnson and Daniel Muir are both of the exclusive rights variety. Johnson has been a bit of a diamond in the rough since latching on two years ago following his departure from division rival Tennessee. Muir, who signed his tender, is a solid piece at a position with no top shelf talent. Their run defense gave up 126.5 yards per game last season. Eight teams were worse. Those teams, other than 8-8 Denver, will be picking #1, #2, #3, #5, #7, #8 and #9 coming off 10+ loss seasons. This is why the team will pay Peyton whatever he wants. Can you imagine their run defense if he wasn't putting up points? It might be time for a change in philosophy and a long overdue first round pick.
Safety
There is plenty of talent here, but nothing locked up long term. Bethea was the star of their secondary and after another Pro Bowl was given a first round restricted free agent tender. Bullitt has occupied the spot vacated by seemingly always injured Sanders, and garnered a second round tender which he signed. It's never comfortable when both starters are without lengthy deals, and considering Sanders has appeared in just 47 of their 96 games since being drafted in 2004 there is some uncertainty. They lost Francisco (Panthers) who was a primary backup who contributed on special teams. I can understand not wanting to hand out contracts with labor unrest on the horizon, and if that is the strategy another option on the strong side should be sought in the draft. Better yet, someone who can play both spots.
Running Back
Joseph Addai had big shoes to fill considering Marshall Faulk and Edgerrin James were previously in his spot, but after four seasons it is apparent this is the only way he will be mentioned in the same sentence as those standouts. I correctly foresaw them taking another shot in the first round, and even got the player right with Donald Brown. He was slowed by injuries as a rookie and never really got going. Mike Hart continues clinging to a spot on this roster after he plunged to the sixth round in the 2008 draft following a great career at Michigan. His grip tightened when Chad Simpson was cut. The Colts are known for surrounding Peyton with talent and clearly running back is the weakest link of the "skill" positions. Perhaps with an eye on return help a unique threat such as Mississippi's Dexter McCluster could be targeted in the draft, especially since Simpson handled 38 of the 55 kickoff returns last year.
Special Teams
Don't look now, but Adam Vinatieri is 37. Moving indoors to join the Colts in 2006 was a good move to lengthen his career and of course he quickly added a fourth ring to his hand. In 3 1/2 years of work he has converted 82.4% which is almost exactly his career average, but it's the "half" part that is an issue. He broke down in early October and while he tried to return was unable to help them in the Super Bowl where as it turns out they could have used him. Instead an even older kicker with a title on his resume, 42 year old Matt Stover, was unable to hit from 51. The answer could be in house if their punter McAfee (who kicked field goals at West Virginia) is given a shot, but they need a solid plan at kicker. Another issue is the returns. Reserve running back Chad Simpson (kickoff) and cornerback T.J. Rushing (punt) leave a lot to be desired, and after I said that Simpson was cut. Fans I'm sure would like to see them improve returns and put this prolific offense in better field position.
Linebacker
After locking up Gary Brackett, their key cog, the emphasis shifts to just a little depth. Hagler and Keiaho are both unrestricted free agents after not being tendered. Both of them were in this same boat last year. Hagler has been beset by injuries, and Keiaho is a valued backup with versatility. With an eye on the future, Session hits free agency next year although every time I type that I wonder if the 2011 season will even start. The usual speedy, undersized types will be targeted late in the draft to keep the competitive juices flowing behind the starters.
Cornerback
Depth has become a concern after losing Marlin Jackson (Eagles) and Tim Jennings (Bears) in free agency. Jackson barely played in the past two seasons with knee injuries and you can't really miss a player who appeared so infrequently, but Jennings made starts at corner and showed up in the nickel at various times. Someone will be drafted, likely on day three, to fill up the depth chart.
Quarterback
Despite being 8 months older than Donovan McNabb, who any moment could be sporting a different uniform, the Colts are not worried about finding Peyton Manning's successor. He has been sacked far fewer times (357 to 215) which might have something to do with their confidence level. Last year rookie Curtis Painter made one of the most infamous relief appearances in NFL history. He was largely blamed for wrecking their perfect season, but in fact it was the coaching staff's decision to put him in there. How many guys seeing their first live NFL action would have fared better against an attacking defense charging for a playoff berth? Still, is he the guy they want at the controls should Peyton's knees flare up and cause him to (gasp) actually miss a game? Or rookie free agent Drew Willy out of Buffalo? Their safety net Jim Sorgi has headed to the Giants where he will back up the younger Manning brother. In what is regarded as a weak draft at the position I would not be surprised to see them take another shot and force three guys to battle it out for two spots.
