8 picks - #20, 51, 81, 118, 150, 187, 197sd, 227
Free Safety
The Chiefs are wondering how they could have allowed Pollard to exit. He has been an excellent addition to one of the league's quietly emerging young defenses. They put the first round tender on him as a restricted free agent (which he signed) after he tied for the team lead with 4 interceptions while making a killing in run support. Then there is Eugene Wilson on the free side. He has only appeared in 35 of his team's past 64 games spanning two seasons here and his final two in New England. He will only be 30 by the season opener, but already he is a shadow of the player he was while playing on the championship Patriot teams his first two seasons (2003-2004) with a combined 8 interceptions. It is time for them to move on and draft a playmaker. Other than Pollard the position is thin. Ferguson spent time at both spots, but is facing retirement at 35 years old and is an unrestricted free agent. Russell is a journeyman vet they added for depth. He is also free to exit and likely will not be signed. They did not tender restricted free agent Busing and while he has position versatility he is most valued on special teams if brought back. If there is a standout available in the first round (think Texas star Earl Thomas) expect them to pull the trigger.
Cornerback
Even if he sat out a dozen games in 2007-2008 the Texans are going to miss Dunta Robinson quite a bit. For one thing, even at just 28 on draft day he was the elder statesman of the corners. Reeves is now the "old man" and will be one starter. The other spot falls on a rookie, Quin, and another rookie McCain is the primary nickel option. Drafting these two last year showed nice foresight given Robinson's aforementioned unreliability. Quin now has 13 starts under his belt and has performed well. McCain fits the nickel as a pure cover guy with great range and not much to offer in the size or toughness departments. Recent middle round picks Bennett (in and out of the lineup) and Molden (injury prone) getting leapfrogged by the new kids is not a great sign. With so much youth it almost seems counterintuitive for them to go after a new #1 early in the draft. I'm expecting them to take advantage of a deep class by bringing someone in to put someone out of a job while hoping the increased competition elevates the play of their best three.
Running Back
TThere are some options in the backfield, but no clear cut "feature" back to rely on. Even if the NFL has gone away from players carrying the lion's share of the work load, right now Houston has no idea what to expect from any of their young rushers. The leader was Slaton, who was expected to be their future at the position, but he had just 131 rushes for 437 yards and is recovering from neck surgery. Injury aside, it was a huge step back from his relatively huge rookie season (1,282 yards). Moats might be their most reliable player, but as a poor pass protector in an offense built to go aerial he is strictly a complementary option. They tendered him (third round) as a restricted free agent and he signed it. Chris Brown tried to revive his NFL career by switching teams, but his 3.4 yard average rush was well below any of his five seasons with the division rival Titans. He is an unrestricted free agent and likely has no spot. The final primary rusher they used was undrafted rookie Arian Foster. He took advantage of tired and uninterested defenses late in the season to post 39 carries for 216 yards over the final two weeks. Quietly the aforementioned quartet piled up a respectable 1,351 rushing yards, but it took 365 carries and the 3.70 average was pretty weak. At #20 this could be a surprise landing spot for a speedy threat like Spiller (Clemson) if he is still on the board or Best (California) after a trade down.
Defensive Tackle
In three consecutive drafts from 2005-2007 the Texans hit their defensive line in the first round with tackle Travis Johnson, end Mario Williams and tackle Amobi Okoye with mixed results. Johnson is gone (Chargers) Williams is a stud, and Okoye is still a work in progress although he is only 22 years old. The knock has been getting after the passer, and it is also an issue with Cody after his first season with the team coming over from the Lions. There is more to the tackle position than stopping the run and their rotation is lacking players capable of penetrating gaps. A roster spot is available with Zgonina, an unrestricted free agent, probably out. His age, he would be the oldest defender (39) in the NFL if he suits up this season, plus the need for a pass rusher inside seem to doom him. DelJuan Robinson was tendered as an exclusive rights free agent, but with zero sacks in 27 appearances is strictly backup material at this point. Given their history anything is possible, even using their first round pick yet again if the right player is available. If this defense keeps adding parts the team might finally live up to the annual preseason hype.
Interior Offensive Line
We never know exactly how a team's depth chart will shake out, but it does appear signing Wade Smith (Chiefs) is going to bolster this area and point them in another direction during the draft. He gives them yet another option at guard/center and will start at one of the interior spots. Caldwell, a center at Alabama, could be the future there after rotating at right guard during his rookie season last year. White, a tendered restricted free agent, served as the backup center while making some late season starts at right guard. Before he went on IR with a broken foot Brisiel, an exclusive rights free agent, had the starting job. On the left side it looks like unrestricted free agent Pitts, an original Texan, will walk because Studdard gives them a younger, cheaper alternative. There are question marks, and as much as they struggled to run the ball it is probably wishful thinking to assume Smith's signing plus a healthy group solves all their problems. However, they do have talent if all the pieces come together in a cohesive unit.
Special Teams
Punter Matt Turk turns 42 in June, but is coming off a good season and the coverage unit allowed a mere 4.3 yards per return. They might look for someone to store on the practice squad as a rookie free agent after the draft after signing him for one more season. Kicker Kris Brown can probably be blamed for them not making the playoffs after blowing key field goals. Most damning is converting just 40% of his attempts beyond 40 yards. He missed three more in the 30-39 range and was an embarrassing 65.6% overall. Only three kickers with qualifying stats from 2009 were worse, and two of them were fired. The team even brought long snapper Bryan Pittman back hoping he could help break the spell. No luck, and at this point I said "it is probably time to move on from the only player to ever attempt a field goal (regular season) for them in franchise history". They did, sort of, by inking Neil Rackers (Cardinals) for two years. The trick is that his deal has only $350,000 guaranteed money in case he is unable to beat out Brown.
Linebacker
The chances they do not lock up Ryans, who was given the highest tender as a restricted free agent, long term are slim and none. Rookie star Cushing will be next to him for years to come. On the other side they have Diles and Adibi from the previous two drafts. They have plenty of youth and quality starters. Perhaps the only concern is Diles hitting free agency next year because of the budget at the position. If the plan is to let him walk in favor of making sure Ryans is satisfied and the bank isn't broken, another option could be sought out in this draft. Obviously they know how to find talent in various rounds having taken the aforementioned quartet of players in the first, second, fourth and seventh rounds. Look for them to pick someone up on day three for depth and with an eye on the future.
Backup Quarterback
One of the great mysteries could be how Pete Carroll actually thought the USC Trojans were better off with John David Booty starting over Mark Sanchez a few years ago. After Booty was forced out of Minnesota in a numbers game when Favre unretired he landed with the Texans to compete with Orlovsky for the right to back up Schaub now that Rex Grossman (Redskins) is gone. Does this sound a bit shaky? This is a dreadful quarterback class by most accounts, and anyone drafted would be then battling with Booty for the third string role, which doesn't do anything to protect them against Schaub reverting to his "I'll just miss 5 games okay?" mode. After the draft, assuming they stand pat, I expect them to go dumpster diving for another option. If this offense falls into the hands of Orlovsky no end zone line is safe.
