Adrian Peterson - Growing Up or Growing Down?
by Michael Cooper
Host of Michael Cooper Sports Talk & The Football Expert Radio Show
6/11/08

As I contemplate my #1 Running Back in this year’s Fantasy Draft everything points to only one choice.  Adrian Peterson is running behind the best offensive line in football and appears superhuman.  His backup, Chester Taylor, continues to fumble the ball at the goal line – a sure fire formula for keeping Running Backs on the bench.  The only thing that has been holding me back on making Adrian Peterson my top choice is the dreaded Sophomore Slump

I’ve watched it work its evil curse recently on the likes of Cadillac Williams, Reggie Bush, Brandon Jacobs, Lawrence Maroney and Maurice Jones Drew and it had me concerned.

On the June 7th broadcast of The Football Expert Radio Show my co-host, Paul Eide, and I broke down our list of the top 20 Fantasy Running Backs LISTEN HERE and I kept using the cliché “Sophomore Slump” to explain away some rather disastrous second year performances by players.  So in order to bring some clarity to my dilemma and to determine just what a Sophomore Slump is I decided to do something highly unusual on my part – RESEARCH!!!

Sophomore Slump originated in academia and is defined as a "period of developmental confusion resulting from student's struggles with achieving competence, desiring autonomy, establishing identity, and developing purpose."  There’s a mouthful.

For NFL Running Backs that translates into: the excitement of entering the NFL is over and now the reality that hard work is required in order to stay in the league is all that’s left (along with the need of some big offensive linemen). 

So the Chicago Punk band “Fall Out Boy” has a song titled “Sophomore Slump or Comeback of the Year” with the lyrics, “Are we growing up or just growing down  - it’s just a matter of time before we’re all found out.” 

To me that says it all… you have to determine if your Fantasy Running Back is growing up after his rookie year or growing down! For history’s sake, the first deadly case of the NFL Sophomore Slump appears to date back to just over 20 years ago.  In 1987, Washington Redskins rookie, Timmy Smith, set a Super Bowl rushing record that still stands today (204 yards) and in his sophomore season disappeared from the face of the earth (well almost).  The slump continued next with Cincinnati Running Back, Icky Woods, who went from a thousand yard season and 15 TD’s in 1988 to two scores and 94 yards during his sophomore season – Ouch!!!  It continued to spread with Rashann Salaam in Chicago in 1996 when he dropped from over a thousand yards and 10 TD’s in his rookie year to less than 500 with 3 rushing scores in his second.  I could go on but it gets more painful…

Recently, Cadillac Williams was touted by Tampa Bay coach, Jon Gruden, as the second coming of Barry Sanders and he started his career by rushing for more yards in his first three games than any Running Back in NFL history.  Then the wheels came off and it was just a matter of time before we all found out Cadillac was a lemon.  Unfortunately that didn’t stop thousands of people from taking Williams in the first round of his sophomore season.  Reggie Bush excited everyone in his rookie year and garnered the handle “Phenom” prematurely but he too seemed to grow down and become a second year bust.  Laurence Maroney also had moments of brilliance in his rookie year.  This made him another top sophomore draft choice who only served to disappoint fantasy owners but I think the jury is still out on him and another slumper, Maurice Jones Drew.

The best argument against putting any credence in the Sophomore Slump lies with the games best runners.  Jim Brown, Walter Payton, Barry Sanders and Emmitt Smith all turned their second seasons into Fantasy scoring spectaculars.  Further support that the slump isn’t contagious can be found in the past decade. The two most consistent top backs LaDanian Tomlinson and Shaun Alexander also eluded the dreaded second year slump turning in some of their best all time numbers.  So maybe it really is like the song by Fall Out Boy - it’s just a matter of time before we’re all found out. 

So my [non-academic] definition of Sophomore Slump is simply: are you a contender or a pretender.  I’ve solved my dilemma - I believe Adrian Peterson is a contender and the #1 back in the NFL.  He’s definitely on his way up, not down.