Breaking Down the Psychology of the NFL Draft
by Michael Abromowitz
NFL Draft Director
3/31/09


Why did I become an NFL Draft analyst?  Besides my previous experience in football recruiting, my mathematics and statistics ability/interest was enough for me to try my hand at the NFL Draft.  I studied Economics and Statistics in college with the belief that anything could be predicted with numbers.  My obsessive compulsiveness with predictability forced me to use regression analysis.  I attempted to create equations using previous data I collected.  Much of our day to day activities can be predicted with regression analysis. Our life is hypothetically a formula and all we have to do is to input the variables. 

I thought I could do the same with the NFL Draft and predicting players’ success and team’s likelihood of drafting certain players.  I believed my mathematical and statistical knowledge gave me a competitive advantage compared to the other NFL Draft analysts.  Grant it, most fans, general managers, and coaches would laugh at you for using equations to analyzed prospects, but the Oakland Athletics have been doing just that and it has been chronicled in the novel Moneyball, another novel written by Michael Lewis.  Lewis also wrote The Blind Side, the much talked about story of Michael Oher.  However, after treacherous years of research and about 10,000 excel tables later, I have come to the conclusion, unlike baseball; the NFL is no longer about statistics, but rather about psychology.  Not only do you have to look at the psychology and mental makeup of an NFL player, but you also have to look at the inner thought process of NFL teams.  My purpose of writing this article is not to share how psychology is able to predict one’s success in the NFL, but rather one team’s decision making process during the NFL Draft.  

Every team and every decision maker is aware of all the statistics and measurements of every prospect in the NFL Draft.  We have done the draft long enough to realize there is no predictable way for experts to project NFL teams’ picks.  We look too much at the numbers rather than the minds of the people making the decision.  The analogy could easily translate into dating.  Gisele Bundchen is considered one of the most attractive women in the world and almost everyone agrees on that.  Now what about Natalie Portman the actress?  If you were “forced” to make a decision in the dating draft, who would you choose: the tall, sexy model or the petite, Harvard-educated actress?  On paper, Bundchen would seem to be the unanimous winner, but not the guaranteed selection.  I myself and many others prefer the educated Portman.  Portman has that sweet, adorable thing going for her.  Bundchen is absolutely stunning, but I doubt I would have much in common with her.  The decision depends solely on the person.


When projecting the Detroit Lions’ top pick, it doesn’t matter how much analysis and game film sessions I do, I can’t make my draft projection just on that.  I have to study the decision makers.  Do they consider a franchise quarterback to be a greater need than an offensive tackle?  What kind of offensive system do they plan to run?  Do they prefer prospects with the NFL ready characteristic or the one with more potential?  How important do leadership and off the field issues matter?  How much do they factor in timed speed vs. game speed?  Does the college system the prospect played in matter?  Is signability a factor?   What doe the team consider more important when drafting:  need or value?

These are just a few questions I have asked myself when making each and every pick.  I may think Matthew Stafford should be the choice, but what do I think the Lions think?  That can get pretty confusing.  Sometimes I wish I would have taken more Psychology classes in college.  That one introduction class was useful, but there is far more depth and analysis in projecting what NFL teams will do compared to Pavlov's dog theory.

After hours of deliberation and playing mind reader, I make my draft choice for the Lions and move on.  Only 255 draft picks to go.  This is the exact process I really do.  Two teams that really interest me in this draft are the Oakland Raiders and the San Francisco 49ers.  First, every Al Davis’ draft interests me.  I have thrown my conventional wisdom/NFL Draft expertise out the window every time I make my projection for the Raiders.  I instead turn to the question: what would Al do?  Let’s go back to the Bundchen and Portman decision.  If I was Al Davis, I would take Bundchen.  Bundchen is going to be the one who looks better in a Raiders’ uniform and going to put fans in the seats.  Al Davis might not have a need for another supermodel, but Bundchen is that “wow” factor that Davis cannot pass up.  This is exactly why so many experts project Michel Johnson, defensive end from Georgia Tech to the Raiders, in the first round!  Johnson has the measurables: 6-6, with 4.5 speed, but on film he lacks the burst you want out of a top pass rusher.  In four years, he never really developed into being the next Mario Williams we thought he would become.  But Al Davis may not care.  He has the size and speed and the “potential” to be a superstar.  To him, that may just be enough to pull the trigger at number seven.  My job is to get inside Davis’ head and project if he would really draft Johnson that high, even though I would not do it myself.

The San Francisco 49ers is another interesting team because one of their glaring needs is quarterback and either Matthew Stafford or Mark Sanchez could very well be available at the tenth pick.  To many teams with quarterback questions like the 49ers this would be a no-brainer.  You take the franchise quarterback, develop him, and hope for him to be your quarterback for the next 10 seasons.  However, reading the mindset of the 49ers this may not be the situation.  They may feel they have their current quarterback on their team and rather draft and create a defensive minded team with a run first attitude on offense.  The 49ers might be thinking if they can shore up their offensive line and have a defense that manages to keep points off the board, the quarterbacks on their roster already is exactly what they need to be a winning team.  However, this could be all for show to confuse other NFL teams.  My job is to try to break everything down and dissect what the 49ers are really thinking.  And if they don’t take a quarterback, what kind of defenders do they want on their defense?  Aaron Mabin may be an ideal 3-4 OLB, but Mike Singletary may feel he is too raw and instead elect to take someone else, even if his potential is not as great.  The 49ers may decide they will take the best player on the board no matter what.  And some teams have this philosophy.  It is our job to figure out what each team thinks.

So even if the Jaguars are on the clock and defensive tackle B.J. Raji is available and I believe he is the perfect fit to team up with John Henderson, I can’t immediately make the selection.  I have to try to figure out what the Jaguars are thinking.  My quick analysis with the Jaguars is that Coach Del Rio is on the hot seat and cannot afford another poor season or else he will probably get fired.  With that, I believe a quarterback is not a likely selection for Jacksonville.  I think the Jaguars are going to try to do the “quick fix” and draft an immediate hole.  With that, I believe wide receiver or defensive tackle would be the selection.  And even if I decide the Jaguars will take a wide receiver, which receiver will it be? 


With all this psychology, statistics and measurements still matter.  Our job as NFL Draft analysts is to figure out what numbers matter to what teams.  Some teams may prefer game speed rather than timed speed, making the 40 time insignificant.  Others, including Al Davis, live by the 40.

It is amazing to think how complex and unpredictable the NFL draft really is.  It doesn’t matter how much analysis you do because when projecting the draft it all depends on the human mind.  Because of that, most draft experts prefer their own rankings and analysis.  Because what would be a bigger bragging statement:  projecting the Patriots to draft Tom Brady or projecting Tom Brady to become a Hall of Famer?  The choice is obvious.   Most of us draft experts love statistics and watching game film.  Regarding the mastery of mind reading, that is still a work in progress.  I am not going to lie, trying to figure out what Al Davis can be kind of fun.  Trying to figure out what the masterminds in New England are thinking is a different story.  So even if you think Gisele Bundchen is the hottest girl alive, the important thing you need to know is not everyone thinks so.  The true test of an NFL Draft analyst is not projecting what prospects each team will draft, but rather what prospects will do well in the NFL.  And as mentioned earlier, even that lacks statistical evidence to measure success.  Most of that success depends on the person and his own mental state.  Measuring success of an NFL prospect is just as much psychology as anything else.  In a world where mathematicians have created formulas to predict almost anything, the one thing we still can’t predict is the human element and that is what makes the NFL Draft so amazing.  Numbers tell a story, but it is the human mind that creates it. 


Michael Abromowitz has been quoted in numerous publications, both internet and print and is a proud member of the Football Writers Association of America.


Abromowitz's 2009 NFL Mock Draft - 7 rounds
Cox's 2009 NFL Mock Draft - 4 rounds
MockDraftDatabase.com (our mock draft database)