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2009 NFL Draft - Top 54
NFL Draft Prospects
by Gregory Cox
Director
of NFL and College Analysis
7/21/08
Will an offensive lineman be taken #1 overall two years in a row? It is
quite possible if you believe the early consensus of 2009 mock drafts.
I have compiled data from 45, yes 45 mock drafts including our
president Michael Abromowitz. I used the average of players included on
at least 9 lists to come up with a top 54. This is a pretty good
consensus considering 19 players were on two-thirds of the mocks and 30
appeared on half. Bear in mind most of these mocks only went one round.
The ratings are weighted to reflect the number of times they were
ranked such that players ranked more times will jump those with a
slightly better average who appeared on fewer lists. This hurts
underclassmen of course because some mocks don’t account for them
whatsoever.
*-underclassmen
#1
OT Michael Oher (Mississippi) - He almost came out before
stepping back. The difference will come in his guaranteed money because
unless something strange happens he is a first round pick. This year I
believe his value would have lingered around that of Clady and Albert
who were taken #12 and #15 respectively. It is certainly possible for
him to have gone sooner. At the 2009 combine he will be fighting for a
top five if not #1 overall selection.
#2
*WR Michael Crabtree (Texas Tech) - His numbers as a freshman
were astounding, but with his quarterback in his final season it would
be a bit of a risk for him to stay with the Red Raiders. Another season
like he had in 2007 will lean him towards the NFL.
#3
CB Malcolm Jenkins (Ohio State) - The 2008 draft was loaded at
cornerback so it was smart business for him to avoid the competition by
returning for his senior season. Scouts have already seen what they
need, but it would help him to end the year not getting blown out by an
SEC team in the title game.
#4
ILB Rey Maualuga (USC) - The Trojan defense is so good one of
their backup linebackers Thomas Williams was taken in this draft.
Maualuga is no reserve. He is among only four players on this list
included on every mock draft I looked at.
#5
ILB James Laurinaitis (Ohio State) - In this year’s draft I have
no doubt he would have been gone in the top 15 because the Lions would
have selected him at #15. Now he has to hold his value and fight off
any upstarts because he should be one of the top three linebackers when
the combine rolls around.
#6
*QB Matthew Stafford (Georgia) - It looks like the ‘Dawgs will
be competing for a national title. If they win it or come close you can
expect him to enter the draft. He is already seen as the top NFL ready
passer by a lot of people and do you see a lot of quarterbacks on this
list?
#7
*RB Chris “Beanie” Wells (Ohio State) - After a bevy of running
backs left early the 2009 class certainly caught a break and this could
be an early addition who reaps the benefit of not competing with some
of those guys. The most important fact about him is that he has the
size to take an NFL pounding.
#8
DE/OLB Michael Johnson (Georgia Tech) - Going into the season
he is highest rated senior at his position meaning he has the most at
stake. Other top players can always come back for another season.
#9
DT Fili Maola (USC) - His line mates Jackson and Ellis just
went in the first round not to mention another top 10 behind him at
linebacker (Rivers). Now it is his time to shine and ironically (see
next pick) next year’s battle at defensive tackle might have the same
flavor of this year’s Ellis vs. Dorsey battle.
#10
*QB Tim Tebow (Florida) - How do you follow up 55 touchdowns and
a Heisman a year after winning a national title? By proving to NFL
scouts you can be an NFL passer. This guy isn’t going to run past or
over anyone on Sundays. If he comes out it will be because he feels he
has shown enough passing ability to be taken early in a draft already
being called weak at the position.
#11
DE Tyson Jackson (LSU) - I can see why he stayed in school to
avoid competing with some high profile players at his position. Now he
has the opportunity to stand out and possibly be selected in the top
10.
#12
*OT Andre’ Smith (Alabama) - One of the surprises this year was
a crazy rush for tackles with eight (if you include Albert) in the top
26 selections. The emphasis on rushing the passer obviously creates a
need to counter that attack.
#13
*DE George Selvie (South Florida) - In the 2008 draft pass
rushers were a big priority and next year should be no different.
Someone had to make 2008 picks Jenkins and Williams (cornerbacks) look
good back there right?
#14
*WR Percy Harvin (Florida) - He is the next exciting multiple
threat at the receiver position. The backlash of Ginn being seen as a
disappointment after going in the top 10 (2007) and fall of Jackson to
the second round (2008) will certainly influence how he is evaluated.
The truth is, there is no comparison to either. He is a serious weapon
and if Tebows leaves he will certainly follow. Otherwise he still might
go.
#15
OLB Brian Cushing (USC) - After two of his teammates were
drafted at the position this year and with another drawing more
attention it will be interesting to see how he performs. Scouts have
undoubtedly already seen plenty of his game tape simply by watching the
other guys.
#16
CB Vontae Davis (Illinois) - There were a ton of siblings in
this past draft and none of them will match the hype of him being the
younger brother of 49er tight end Vernon. However, his blood lines have
nothing to do with his ability and many scouts said he would have been
the top corner in 2008.
#17
RB Knowshon Moreno (Georgia) - Before too long this is a name
you will “know”. There is a great tradition of running backs that came
before him and while I don’t think he can live up to the Herschel
Walker or Terrell Davis standard I believe this is one of the guys
fighting for a first round grade.
#18
*WR Darrius Heyward-Bey (Maryland) - Last year no receivers were
taken in the first round. I would expect this to really light a fire
under players thinking they can just put up numbers and be selected on
Saturday. This year we had “DRC” in the form of Tennessee State’s
Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie (Cardinals) at cornerback. Maybe “DHB” will
be running patterns against him. His mid-4.2 time in the 40 would
indicate that.
#19
OG Duke Robinson (Oklahoma) - He is one of two Sooner linemen
who could be taken before the first round is over, and will compete
with Johnson (see below) to be the top guard. Typically guards aren’t
regarded as top selections, but if they are elite it is a different
story.
#20
*S Taylor Mays (USC) - The football factory has produced so
many NFL players, but now they have to fight off the reputation of not
living up to the hype. One guy who did is their last great safety
Polamalu (Steelers).
#21
OT Alex Boone (Ohio State) - Is he the next great Big Ten
tackle? There is a lot to live up to after Thomas (Wisconsin) was a Pro
Bowl rookie and Long (Michigan) went #1 overall the past two drafts.
#22
*S Myron Rolle (Florida State) - Don’t lump him in with his
character challenged teammates. He is going to provide intelligence,
size and experience to the team drafting him and because he is almost
finished with his education is likely to depart after this season.
#23
SS William Moore (Missouri) - Certainly the 2008 draft was light
at the safety position and this is one of the players who should change
that. He is a decorated, experienced player who needs to shake off
shoulder surgery and have a solid year to stay in the round 1
conversation.
#24
TE Travis Beckum (Wisconsin) - His size isn’t ideal for the
position at the NFL level, but after two seasons with over 900 yards
receiving he is certain to find a role in some team’s offense.
#25
*DT Sen’Derrick Adams (Auburn) - I haven’t seen a name this
interesting since Virginia tackle D’Brickashaw Ferguson. Heaven help
the announcer who has to call a game if those two tangle in the NFL.
His height (6’1”) shouldn’t be much of a problem considering Trevor
Laws (Notre Dame) went on day 1 this year.
#26
OT Phil Loadholt (Oklahoma) - He will certainly be one of the
tackles much sought after in the next draft. As you will see below
there are a lot of highly rated offensive linemen, but he is going to
stand out when all is said and done.
#27
CB Victor Harris (Virginia Tech) - How do you not like a guy
with a nickname like Macho? He had declared for the 2008 draft, but
changed his mind. It was a smart move because the class was loaded at
the position including his teammate Brandon Flowers, a second round
pick by the Chiefs. Now he can stand out as their top corner and join a
weaker draft class.
#28
*OT Ciron Black (LSU) - I’m sure he will be disappointed if he
isn’t selected by the Packers. You see, he blocked for Matt Flynn at
Lee High School and for the Tigers which would make it a clean sweep.
He is going to be one of the top left tackle prospects with his
extensive experience there.
#29
*DT Al Woods (LSU) - I certainly have my doubts about his
ability to play without Dorsey. This year’s #5 pick made a huge impact
on the run defense and without him Woods will need to prove to me he is
also an elite player.
#30
OT Max Unger (Oregon) - Two of his line mates were recent
selections and he is certainly a big part of running back Jonathan
Stewart (Panthers) going #13 overall.
#31
*ILB Brandon Spikes (Florida) - He really came onto the scene
last year and with another big season could jump into the draft.
#32
*DE Greg Hardy (Mississippi) - The Jaguars probably won’t take
him. They already have two SEC pass rushers from this past draft.
Everyone else, however, will be interested if he comes out.
#33
*RB C.J. Spiller (Clemson) - Again, with all the running backs
who left early last year there is an opportunity for the guys who want
to do the same this year. He forms a dynamic duo with James Davis, but
is more versatile than his partner in crime.
#34
QB Curtis Painter (Purdue) - He looks to be leading the list as
far as senior quarterbacks go, but that isn’t saying very much.
#35
*DE Greg Middleton (Indiana) - It’s not just about basketball
for the Hoosiers any longer. Having already been a finalist for the
Hendricks Award and given the emphasis on the position it would only
take a good junior year for him to declare.
#36
OT Eugene Monroe (Virginia) - He is the other half of the
reason 2008 draft riser Brandon Albert stayed at guard. The other was
top five pick D’Brickasaw Ferguson (Jets). Enough said, and as this
season plays out he might also be taken in the top 10 as they were.
#37
RB LeSean McCoy (Pittsburgh) - The Panthers are picked to be a
surprise Top 25 team this season. Even during last year’s losing
campaign he was a bright spot including their upset of West Virginia
when he flat out carried them.
#38
WR Demetrius Byrd (LSU) - Two Tiger receivers were taken in the
first round of the 2007 draft and this year Early Doucet went in the
third. He was brought in as a JUCO transfer to offset those losses. He
caught only 35 passes this year, but was second on the team in yards
because of his high average (17.7 yards) and led the team with 7
touchdown receptions. Now if they can just find a quarterback.
#39
*WR Jeremy Maclin (Missouri) - Last season was about as
consistent as it gets. Other than the opener and bowl game (combined 5
receptions for 75 yards 1 TD) he had 52+ yards every time out (12
games). Late in the season he went on a three game tear catching 20
passes for 397 yards and 5 touchdowns. With his quarterback Chase
Daniel in his final year I think he will leave early.
#40
CB Mike Mickens (Cincinnati) - He is another corner who wisely
avoided the logjam by sticking around for his senior season. After a
season with 6 interceptions, two he brought back to the house, it must
have been a tough decision.
#41
OG Herman Johnson (LSU) - Another top flight guard. Apparently
he is the biggest player ever to suit up for the Tigers and is listed
at 6’7” and 351 pounds. I would not be surprised to see him in the
first round mix.
#42
DT *DeMarcus Granger (Oklahoma) - The Sooners might be losing
ground as the dominant force of the Big XII, but their defense is
always top flight. Granger will be at the front of that unit this year.
#43
LB Darry Beckwith (LSU) - He is an undersized, versatile and
fast prospect who was highly recruited out of high school.
#44
WR Brian Robiskie (Ohio State) - When the NFL scooped up his
teammates Ginn Jr. and Gonzalez he took full advantage of the spotlight
posting 935 yards receiving with 11 touchdowns and a solid 17.0 yard
average. At 6’3” he is definitely going to be garnering first day
interest.
#45
C Alex Mack (California) - One of the reasons this past draft
was weak at the center position was because he stayed with the Golden
Bears. There are few players who can be truly elite and he has the
ability to be one of them. Cal has always produced good linemen and
paved the way for productive rushers like Marshawn Lynch (Bills) and
Justin Forsett (Seahawks).
#46
TE Brandon Pettigrew (Oklahoma State) - This could be the
equivalent of Martellus Bennett (Texas A&M) who was taken in the
second round by the Cowboys. Pettigrew already plays for the Cowboys –
in college. He has the frame scouts look for at the position, is a
solid blocker and can catch passes.
#47
*DE/OLB Maurice Evans (Penn State) - After piling up 12.5 sacks
as a sophomore it seems probable that another similar season puts him
into the draft. His size and speed make him enticing to teams running
the 3-4.
#48
TE Chase Coffman (Missouri) - His teammate Martin Rucker went
in the fourth round after watching his stock drop late. It will take
more than a good year on the stat sheet for Coffman to stand out.
#49
RB James Davis (Clemson) - He is looking to lead the Tigers in
rushing for the fourth consecutive season this fall. Clearly he is the
“thunder” to teammate and fellow day one prospect C.J. Spiller’s
“lightning”. In 21 of 36 games he has rushed for 82+ yards which is
impressive given the split backfield. Sixteen times he has logged 18+
carries and his average for those games is 106.3 yards. He hasn’t
caught the ball (37 receptions) with Spiller around, but he has rushed
for 36 touchdowns and is a lead back.
#50
SS Nic Harris (Oklahoma) - The Sooner secondary has been known
for producing NFL caliber players in the secondary and he is the next
in line.
#51
QB Cullen Harper (Clemson) - A lot of quarterbacks would love
to have the weapons at his disposal and the Tigers might be a national
title contender if they can take down Alabama early. In a weak year at
the quarterback position he has a chance to crack round 1, especially
if Tebow stays in school.
#52
DT Jeff Owens (Georgia) - The ‘Dawgs will be in the title hunt
and if their run defense is a big part of that his stock will shoot up.
#53
OG Jeremy Perry (Oregon State) - Injuries have hurt his
collegiate career including a broken leg that stole almost his entire
2007 campaign. This season will be about him staying healthy and
showing that size (6’2” and 334 pounds) matters.
#54
WR Aaron Kelly (Clemson) - Their offense is ready for a big
season with all of this talent. He had six games with 95+ yards
receiving and scored in eight of their thirteen games while averaging
6.77 receptions. With a quality quarterback and two NFL ready running
backs he is primed for another big season.
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