NFL Predictions and Analysis - Week 9
by Gregory Cox
College Football Director
11/7/09

There is not much to say about my picks last week other than I blew it. The best way I can describe it is by saying every game I grinded over went the opposite direction. Mix in two winless teams breaking through and a shocking Carolina upset at Arizona. I really had a tough time straight up at 7-6, dropping my season mark to 83-33. Any lead I had over some of the other experts evaporated and it pains me to even type this. My performance against the spread was a dismal 4-9, dropping me into the red overall (57-58-1). The lone bright spot was a sparkling 10-3 showing on the over/under which pushed me into the black overall (58-55-3).

Washington (2-5) @ Atlanta (4-3): I'm sure a lot of people want to talk about formerly relevant cornerback DeAngelo Hall coming back to face his former team. He might get some garbage interceptions, but his play on the field at the moment is a small fraction of what comes out of his mouth. I'll take a different angle. Because I am writing this Saturday afternoon, I can announce that Arkansas whipped South Carolina on the college level. Why is this relevant? Well, those teams are both coached by men who jumped from college to lead the Redskins and Falcons. This of course ties in to Hall, who bumped heads badly with Bobby Petrino prior to him bolting Atlanta to coach the Razorbacks. It has been a while since Steve Spurrier wore his visor on the sideline for Washington, and now he is throwing it to the ground while trying to lead the Gamecocks out of mediocrity. My point here is that one franchise has recovered from poor choices while the other has not. Atlanta found their general manager, head coach and quarterback in short order. Washington tried to regain past glory with Joe Gibbs and is still floundering.

On the field breaking this down it is fairly simple. The Redskins have not been able to score. Usually I would say a bye week gives them time to figure out a way to score more than 17 points for the first time this season. For them it will not be the case because there is no firm direction or leadership. Their leader in receptions, tight end Chris Cooley, is gone. In his place Fred Davis has a chance. He was a tremendous athlete at USC and great in the passing game. The problem is that the Redskins need to run the ball. Clinton Portis, the only back they really utilize, has been over 100 yards just once and it was a bit misleading because 78 of 109 yards came on one run. Throw out that scamper and his average rush this season drops from 4.08 to 3.46. Now we see why this offense is struggling behind a porous offensive line.

There is good news for the visitors. Defensively they have a huge edge. Their defense is fourth best in total yards per game allowed (283.4) while Atlanta is fourth worst (378.1). I was surprised a bit by that number for the Falcons. Stats can be misleading and in terms of points, a much more important factor, the difference is much slimmer (17.6 to 21.3). In yards per game the advantage for Washington is built virtually entirely on pass defense, but while the run defense is almost even in yards per game Atlanta is giving up 4.5 yards per rush to 3.9 for Washington. I have to say, this game has "ugly" written all over it. The Redskins can play some defense. The Falcons are perceived to be a much better team. They have to come out and mix it up on offense. If Michael Turner has trouble getting loose, and the deep passes are not working they need to use screen passes and veteran tight end Tony Gonzalez to move the chains. I'm counting on the 'Skins to come out flat and rusty on the road. The Falcons are reeling from two road losses and on a short week, but talent wins out: Atlanta 23, Washington 14 (ATL -8.5/under 42)

Arizona (4-3) @ Chicago (4-3): They are who we thought they were! And we let 'em off the hook! Those words are going to be connected to these teams meeting for quite some time. No one really thinks about this game featuring two teams who have recently won the NFC because the Bears faded as most Super Bowl losers have lately. The Cardinals seemed like they might go in that direction as well, but recovered from a 1-2 start by winning three in a row after their bye. Then came last week's head scratching 34-21 home loss to Carolina. A ton of the blame falls on quarterback Kurt Warner who entered the game with 7 turnovers and exited with 13. Outings like that were the reason he fell into the background from 2002-2006 because they were the norm. Perhaps those issues are resurfacing because he now has 2+ turnovers in 4 of 7 games. By contrast he had just 7 such multiple turnover games last year in 19 games including the playoffs. The emphasis has been on him getting the ball down the field as opposed to dumping it to Tim Hightower. They want bigger chunks of yardage.

Ironically, for all the superior athletes Arizona has their passing touchdown total of 11 is identical to Chicago. The interception total is also 11 thanks in part to Jay Cutler adjusting to a new offense. Four of those came in the opener at Green Bay and 3 more were two weeks ago at Cincinnati. He has just one in three home games. Both defenses also have allowed the same number of touchdown passes (11), but the Bears have the edge in yards given up. Each team can stop the run fairly well, and most of the action should come via the pass because neither offense has mounted much of a rushing attack. The hope in the Windy City is that Matt Forte will regain his rookie form, but against a horrible Browns team at home last week it took him 26 carries to reach 90 yards. That's 3.5 per tote. In the desert Beanie Wells is trying to get his rookie groove on. Over the past two games he has totaled 114 yards on 22 carries for a much higher average (5.2). Eventually they are going to lean more on him and it might be this week. It goes without saying quarterback play is going to be huge. Warner on the road is no longer a disaster waiting to happen. The Cards are 3-0 away from the sand and his quarterback rating is considerably higher at 102.0. This comes down to instinct. I can build a case for either team and it will be a pile of dust if either quarterback chokes. I'm seeing pretty steady performances on both sides so I will take the team with more offensive playmakers: Arizona 24, Chicago 23 (AZ +3/over 44.5)

Baltimore (4-3) @ Cincinnati (5-2): In a rematch the analysis changes because we have already seen these teams take the field. Anyone who thought the Bengals would be taking the spot of the Ravens in terms of challenging the Steelers for the AFC North title is either lying or psychic. I am neither although I did expect Baltimore to be about where they are at the moment fighting for another wild card. The records would be switched if not for a dramatic Palmer to Caldwell connection in the final minute. It's what led up to that game winner, and I don't mean brain dead penalties, that I want to talk about though. Cincinnati really took the game to Baltimore physically. It showed with their advantage in first downs (22-12) and total yards (403-257). Cedric Benson ran like the man he was in college at Texas and has been tremendous thus far. There is little doubt he will win Comeback Player of the Year if he keeps up this pace (over 1,600 yards) and with just 28 yards this will be his most productive season as a pro.

Believe me I wish I had more to say when breaking this down. The key factor is whether or not the Bengals can come out rested off their bye week and once again physically stand up to the Ravens for 60 minutes. Not playing last week helped them rest their bodies, but it probably took away some momentum emotionally because when last seen they were pummeling Chicago 45-10. Baltimore now has a head of steam after blemishing Denver's previously spotless record. In two games sandwiched around their bye week since losing to Cincinnati it seems like they regained their ability to score 30+ points every time out. After opening the season with 38, 31, 34 they went 31 and 30 after the 17-14 setback. I could pick this game 10 times and wind up with completely different scores favoring each team equally. For me, the visitors are a little more desperate and hungry. They are going to get one back after letting one slip away last time: Baltimore 21, Cincinnati 20 (CIN +3/under 45)

Houston (5-3) @ Indianapolis (7-0): Eventually the Texans are going to break through, but for now the disparity between these franchises is a lot wider than the difference in their records this season. For the first time in their franchise history they are 2 games over .500. The Colts run through the first two months of their season undefeated just about every year. Then there is the matter of head to head meetings. Christmas Eve 2004 at Reliant Stadium stands as the only Houston victory in 14 tries. At least after last week's ugly 18-14 win over San Francisco the Colts look a little beatable. Their previous four wins were by an average of 35-11. Doubters are pointing to the level of competition as one reason Indy has been able to continue their ridiculous regular season roll. Their questions will be answered this month which starts and finishes with these Texans. In between they host rival New England and travel to Baltimore. Anyone who wonders about Peyton Manning in his extended prime has to be a little crazy though.

It isn't all about Mr. Commercial though. Indianapolis leads the NFL in scoring defense allowing just 13.0 points per game. Last week I mentioned my surprise they were doing it without star safety Bob Sanders and now he is officially out of the mix for the entire season. This defense has given up just 3 passing touchdowns, fewest in the NFL, and are fifth in sacks (20). On the other side the Houston defense is getting nasty against the run. In this case it doesn't really factor in. The Colts are near the bottom of the NFL in rushes per game and they are fine with that while Peyton is being Peyton. This one comes down to their ability to come at yet another opponent exactly how they are expected to and do so effectively. It is hard for me to go against them doing it because they always do. Conversely, to spring the upset the Texans need to get something out of their backfield. Moats did a nice job taking over from Slaton who was benched for fumbling issues. Indy's defense allows a pretty high average rush (4.5) but last week in particular that was pretty deceiving. They gave up 6.3 technically, but Gore broke loose for 64 yards on one run and quarterback Alex Smith had 10 on his only scramble. Throwing those two plays out they gave up 29 yards rushing on 16 attempts. Considering the visitors don't really know who their starting running back is I don't see them putting it together. There will be too much pressure on Schaub to match scores with Manning: Indianapolis 27, Houston 20 (HOU +9/under 49)

Kansas City (1-6) @ Jacksonville (3-4): The difference in this game is pretty simple. The Jaguars probably are not this bad and the Chiefs are. KC even found a way to lose during their bye week when Larry Johnson allowed lonely typists on Twitter bait him into some unfortunate comments. He will be suspended which is probably for the best at this point. There is no blocking in front of him and at this stage of his career LJ lacks the willingness to fight for extra yardage. A lot of that has to do with his big contract being behind him. Older readers might recall ex-49er running back Ricky Watters telling reporters "For who? For what?" when discussing lack of effort in a rout loss. The same is true for a player with a fat wallet on a bad team. Why would Johnson put himself on the line trying to turn a 3 yard gain into 5 yards? Now that responsibility falls on Jamaal Charles who was an awesome rusher at Texas, particularly in the fourth quarter, but has just 90 carries in the NFL.

While I'm on the subject of running the football it is going to be the determining factor in this game. The run defenses are comparable on the stat sheet, but as I've already started to talk about the other sides are much different. The Chiefs get only 3.5 yards per carry, fourth worst in the NFL. The Jags are second best (5.4). Their offensive spark plug is Maurice Jones-Drew. The key for Jacksonville is keeping him involved. He has seen games with 13, 6, 12 and 8 carries which are low for a featured back. Sometimes the game dictates abandoning the running game and in the 3 losses out of those 4 games the defense gave up 30+ points. On the flip side, in games he ran 21, 23 and 33 times they won twice. The loss was a 14-12 struggle at Indianapolis in the opener. If MJD does not get 20+ rushes in this game it will be because he suffers an injury or is kidnapped by fans of the Chiefs prior to kickoff.

Both pass defenses have been struggling and rank in the bottom 7 for yards per game allowed, each having given up 13 touchdown strikes. A lot of it has to do with a poor pass rush. Jacksonville has the lowest sack total (5) and Kansas City (9) is next. Remember when the Jags drafted Groves and Harvey trying to solve that problem? They combined for 6 as rookies, but neither has a sack this season. Perhaps this explains why opponents complete 70.2% of their passes, third highest in the NFL. I don't think the Chiefs can make them pay. Their passing game is so poor all they can do is keep claiming players other teams don't want. The latest is Chris Chambers. They are going to fall behind early and quit: Jacksonville 30, Kansas City 13 (JAX -6/over 41.5)

Miami (3-4) @ New England (5-2): I will give the Dolphins credit. They found a way to save their season by beating the Jets again. It is hard to win a game with 104 total yards, but thanks to 299 kickoff return yards from their benched receiver Ted Ginn Jr. they managed. Right off the bat I can tell you no team coached by Bill Belichick is going to him do that two weeks in a row. Last season the Pats were stung by the Wildcat offense and lost the first meeting decisively 38-13. In the rematch they held the Brown/Williams backfield to 58 yards and won 48-28. This is a very different roster on both sides. To wit, Pennington and Cassel were at quarterback. Now it will be Henne and Brady in a battle of former Michigan Wolverines. No doubt NFL Network's Rich Eisen, who went to Michigan, will mention this about a thousand times. Even if both guys went to the same college the passing disparity could not be much wider. New England's average per game (291.0) puts them behind only Indianapolis while Miami (152.0) has the fourth lowest output. Their thing is balance and with 153.4 yards per game rushing it is hard to argue.

Predicting the Wildcat is probably even more difficult than defending it. I have always said the Patriot defense is about being in the right place at the right time and making the tackle. Their linebackers are not going to run a 4.3 or leap over the line to tackle running backs behind the line of scrimmage. The challenge has been adjusting to so many new faces. Even if a lot of stars are no longer on the roster, New England is still third in scoring defense giving up just 14.0 points per game. What else is there? In their last two games, on two continents, they gave up 7 points total to a pair of bad teams. In those games they turned the corner. Old faces are fading out and the new guys are getting it done. After an open week this is the start of their push for yet another AFC East title. Miami has kept it interesting this season, but bottom line they are 1-4 when not facing the Jets. Similar to the Colts-Texans game, the Dolphins can stop the run but that's fine with the Patriots. Their backfield is banged up and with left tackle Matt Light uncertain to play their game plan will be to light up their secondary. Miami's strength in pass defense is a low completion percentage (56.7) allowed. With Brady throwing underneath to Welker and over the top to Moss I'm not sure it matters. It is always a surprise to me when the Pats lose a game like this. They can really shake off the rest of the East by winning this game: New England 31, Miami 19 (NE -10.5/over 46.5)

Green Bay (4-3) @ Tampa Bay (0-7): Not all that long ago this game was entertaining just to see Warren Sapp getting after Brett Favre. Now Sapp has moved on to dancing and broadcasting while Favre is back on top wearing a different jersey. Now it's a battle between two franchises in transition for different reasons. The Packers, as you might have heard on ESPN a few times, have a new quarterback. Their switch to Aaron Rodgers has been a rough one in the win column at 10-13. He has repeatedly been unable to rally them to victory in close games which as anyone who watches highlights knows is a strength of Favre. He is a horrific 1-9 over their past ten games decided by no more than a touchdown. Getting sacked 65 times in 23 games since taking over for a legend doesn't help though. He appeared beaten like a gladiator in some black and white movie last week. Getting back to the Bucs, their transition is to a totally new regime. In addition to those changes now they are also breaking in a new quarterback. Rookie Josh Freeman will get his first start. Let me get this out of the way, he is not ready to start an NFL game. I wouldn't put him on the field in the CFL. Maybe the UFL where some of the Orlando players say they could give Tampa Bay a fight. Yes, that's how bad it is for the league's last winless team.

On the stat sheet Green Bay's offense is about 100 yards better per game and will hold a huge advantage at the quarterback position. The Pack are also almost 100 yards per game better defensively. Most significantly their run defense allows just 3.5 yards per carry. In other words, they will force a rookie making his first pro start to beat them. Oh, and Green Bay has the fourth most interceptions (11) in the NFL. There really isn't much more to say. The visitors are going to come in and impose their will early. Scoring has been a constant for them all season with 21+ points every time out. Tampa Bay has topped 20 just three times and only once in their past five games. It's simple math really. They can't keep up on the scoreboard: Green Bay 27, Tampa Bay 10 (GB -9.5/under 43.5)

Carolina (3-4) @ New Orleans (7-0): If last week was the season opener for both teams I would call this a huge game in the NFC South. The Saints took care of Atlanta on MNF. The Panthers got 245 yards rushing on 40 carries out of their backfield tandem at Arizona, the defending NFC champs and won big. It's those first six games that separate these teams. Carolina started 0-3 and their only loss since the bye week was a frustrating 20-9 setback against Buffalo despite a huge 425-167 edge in total yards. New Orleans has been consistently solid on both sides of the ball which is why they are still perfect. Any talk of them going 16-0 is premature, but 10-0 seems likely with a win here considering they travel to St. Louis (1-7) and Tampa Bay (0-7) over the next two weeks. Their mission here is to remained focused against a team that is playing much better of late.

No one has figured out a way to stop the Saints. Two rugged AFC East teams (Jets, Bills) slowed them down before the bye week to the tune of 24 and 27 points scored. In five games sandwiched around those outings they average 44.4 points scored. That's college football scoring and let's take into account that four of the five opponents were in the playoffs last year. If Carolina leans on their fifth ranked running game (148.9 yards per game) that's fine. The Saints have the most productive quarterback in the NFL plus an even better running game (153.3). They also don't have to worry about their guy leading the NFL in interceptions (14) going up against the leaders in picking off passes (16). If the averages hold Delhomme throws 2. We know the Louisiana native wants to play well here. He is 4-1 when visiting his former team. It should be noted two of those were in the final week of the season and two others came in the final month. None of them really had huge implications. This one does. The Panthers will be ostensibly eliminated from defending their South division title and even wild card hopes will be in jeopardy. It's going to be a long day for Delhomme unless his running backs go off. Brees is taking on the #1 pass defense in yards per game allowed (160.6) but again, his backfield will bail him out if necessary: New Orleans 35, Carolina 20 (NO -13/over 51.5)

Detroit (1-6) @ Seattle (2-5): The Lions last won a road game October 28, 2007. In other words, their children have worn three different Halloween costumes since the team last had a happy flight home. For goodness sake Jon Kitna to Roy Williams was their passing threat in that game, a 16-7 win at Chicago. Both are now members of the Cowboys. Kevin Jones had 105 yards rushing for them and with his career in limbo it might forever go down as his final trip past the century mark. It's now 14 road losses in a row and with trips to Minnesota, Cincinnati, Baltimore and San Francisco left on the schedule I think their next road win might be in 2010. Interestingly, even with some veterans on offense the Seahawks are not mustering much more than the Lions in scoring (19.3 to 16.1) or yardage per game (309.9 to 292.6). Part of the problem is no running game. The Edgerrin James experiment is over. When your team has 2 rushing touchdowns, 88.7 yards a game and 3.5 per carry those decisions are rather easy. Detroit's run defense is softer, and cutting James will open up opportunities for a couple of little known (nationally) former Pac-10 standouts. Justin Forsett (California) and Louis Rankin (Washington) ranked #2 and #3 in the conference during the 2007 season with 1,546 and 1,294 yards respectively. The leader? That would be Oregon's Jonathan Stewart, now with the Panthers.

Even if the kids are not alright, the passing game should be. I even recommended a childhood friend make a bold move in his fantasy league by benching Rivers for Hasselbeck. The following stats will explain why. The Lions give up the fifth most passing yards per game (251.9) second most touchdowns (18) and second highest completion percentage (70.5). He has already gone off on two bad teams on this field, totaling 520 yards with 7 touchdowns against the Jags and Rams. They might be struggling and only a game above Detroit in the standings, but with this crowd behind them things should go their way. The visitors do get a boost with Calvin Johnson expected to play. However, Daunte Culpepper probably gives them a better shot at victory than Matthew Stafford at this point. Mind you, it is the right move to play the rookie. I'm just pointing it out because I'm a little miffed I picked them to win last week in part because of a veteran quarterback being in the lineup. This should be a bore: Seattle 28, Detroit 10 (SEA -10/under 43.5)

San Diego (4-3) @ NY Giants (5-3): As long as Eli Manning and Philip Rivers are quarterbacking these teams the story will be the draft day trade when the Chargers got picks used on kicker Nate Kaeding and linebacker Shawne Merriman to make the swap. When Merriman was going well it looked like they got the best of it. A series of unfortunate events later it does not look that way, especially since New York has the Super Bowl title. Rivers lost a bitter rival when Denver traded Jay Cutler away. Now his main focus is trying to become the last of the three early 2004 first round draft picks to earn a ring. Their season has gotten back on course thanks to wins over the AFC West deadbeats Kansas City and Oakland. Getting above .500 is a big deal. It changes the perspective from staving off elimination to staying in the hunt. There are four more teams with a losing record left on the schedule. Sweeping those games will put them on 8 wins. This year that's not good enough and this is one of their few remaining opportunities to earn their way into the playoffs.

The Giants are working hard in the opposite direction. At 5-0 they were earning #1 marks on useless power rankings. Three losses and 112 points allowed later they just want the bye week to get here in a hurry. They are 60 minutes of fight against a good football team away from their break. Sometimes it can be an advantage with an open week ahead. It's sort of like running on a treadmill knowing the timer is almost over. The end is tangible so you might as well go all out. San Diego has the challenge of a long road trip and their last such jaunt back in week 4, also their last game outside of AFC West play, resulted in a horrific start and 38-28 loss at Pittsburgh. No one knows what to expect from the Giants at this point though. Anyone who says they do needs to be examined by the Tim Roth character on Lie to Me.

Both offenses are effective on the stat sheet, ranking in the top 12 for scoring and total yards. New York has great balance while San Diego can't run out of a paper bag. It might be deceiving to see the Chargers at #12 in total defense because they have already played the Raiders twice and the Chiefs. The Giants are at #3. A deceiving stat is rushing yards allowed per game because most of the time yards per carry is a better determining factor. To wit, the Chargers are giving up more per game (132.1 to 113.1) but less per carry (4.6 to 4.2). The factor I'm looking at is personnel. New York has the players to hurt this defense. Tomlinson and Sproles are mostly hype at this point. Combined they have 436 rushing yards and a dismal 3.43 yard average with 4 touchdowns. If not for Sproles contributing 267 yards receiving the pair would be just about useless. Conversely both Bradshaw and Jacobs have more rushing yards individually. Their offensive problem is consistency from young wide receivers. It's going to be a tough day for both passers because the Giants are #3 and the Chargers #6 in passing yards allowed per game. That's why the better running game will be so important and the G-Men grind it out: NY Giants 21, San Diego 16 (NYG -3/under 48)

Tennessee (1-6) @ San Francisco (3-4): It is very easy to see the similarities for the young starting quarterbacks on both sides. In consecutive drafts Alex Smith and Vince Young were the top signal callers selected. Both had their opportunities to start. Smith had virtually no success. Young had a run of success before fading. As of the start of this season they were on the bench behind guys who are not exactly heading to the Hall of Fame. No offense to Kerry Collins who has certainly seen team success, but most people figured his career would be over by now. Shaun Hill, as I've said before, looks like the guy at the end of the bar talking about the errant throw not the guy making said throw. The Titans need to see VY on the field. Sure, he has seen plenty of action, but with big money coming his way and Collins staring at a full head of gray hair they might need to draft a quarterback early if he is not the future. Last week he did what he does best which is not screwing up a great rushing effort from Chris Johnson. I'm not overly excited about 8.3 yards per completion even if he did go 15/18 without an interception. 

As for Smith, he has totaled 404 yards passing in 6 quarters since taking over, but does not have a win to show for it. Unlike Young the money is not a factor because he fixed his contract. They are going to play the better quarterback and right now Singletary is calling his number. Until proven otherwise Tennessee's wounded pass defense is the worst in the NFL by a wide margin giving up 282.4 yards per game with league highs in touchdown passes (19) and first downs passing (101). The run defense is suffering without "Fat" Albert, but more than that the push up the middle is hurting their pass rush. The 49ers are not a scary offense. However, Michael Crabtree is adjusting quite well and Frank Gore was healthy enough to break off a long run last week at Indianapolis. Back at home against a team going nowhere I like their chances. On the other hand, SF has the top run defense in yards per carry allowed (3.2) and rank second in both yards per game (84.9) and first downs rushing (30). They can tackle Chris Johnson and when they do it's on the shoulders of Vince Young. His collegiate success in California came down the coast at the Rose Bowl. This will not be a pleasant trip to the Sunshine State for him: San Francisco 24, Tennessee 10 (SF -4/under 41)

Dallas (5-2) @ Philadelphia (5-2): If I had my way these teams would always be in primetime when they play each other. Just for good measure this is meeting #100. To be honest I could throw darts and probably be more accurate when predicting outcomes for these teams in 2009. The Eagles have seemed great most of the time, but were creamed at home by New Orleans and lost a shocker at Oakland. Similarly the Cowboys just go about their business of winning while the critics throw rocks at them. Most people either love or hate this team. Last year's high expectations ended with a thud when these hated Eagles put a 44-6 thrashing on them in this very stadium. I'm not sure revenge carries over to the next season, or that anything would add extra motivation for Dallas on top of leading the NFC East.

I'm not sure any team can match the young offensive talent on Philadelphia. Their big play ability is evident when you consider they rank a very average #15 in total yards per game (344.4) yet are third in scoring average (29.0). They put up points. Conversely Dallas has scored a little less (28.1) while gaining a lot more (411.1). The opposite is true for the respective defenses. The Eagles have a slight edge in scoring (19.0 to 19.4) while giving up roughly 45 more yards. Last week I didn't expect Philly to be overcome the loss of Westbrook. Their offense spread it around to everyone on the field and destroyed the Giants 40-17. When I say "the offense" I mean Donovan McNabb. His quarterback rating was a crisp 146.7. If it comes down to him against Romo to determine the outcome he has the edge not only in big games won during his career but also because his defense is more imposing.

Philadelphia has a 14 interceptions to just 4 for Dallas, and a 23-17 advantage in sacks. Romo has a history of shrinking on the big stage. The Eagles have a stronger run defense while the Cowboys are a bigger threat to run the ball. Honestly, a lot of the stats can be thrown out the window as they should have been in last year's rout. I didn't do it then so I have to do it now. The home team is ready for the big stage. The visitors couldn't even protect their fancy stadium in a high profile opener: Philadelphia 26, Dallas 17 (PHI -3/under 50)

Pittsburgh (5-2) @ Denver (6-1): I'm pretty sure the schedule makers were feeling a little nervous during the preseason about this one. Instead of the Broncos folding and posing no threat to the defending champion Steelers now this is a measuring stick game for both teams. Pittsburgh is fighting to regain control of the AFC North. They are currently tied with the Bengals, but trail on the tiebreaker having lost the first meeting. Denver very much has command of the AFC West with effectively a three game edge over the Chargers, but after getting whipped 30-7 at Baltimore last week are lacking conference respect. They will get it with a win here. Beyond the impact in the standings they want to showcase their #1 total defense against Pittsburgh's #8 unit. The Steelers are first in rushing yards per game, and the Broncos are third. Combined they have allowed 5 rushing scores. The pressure seems to fall on the quarterbacks and what a disparity we have there.

Kyle Orton has been a tremendous boost for the surprise Broncos. However, when faced with the Baltimore defense last week he averaged 6.6 yards per completion and was completely vanilla. Pittsburgh is going to make him look just about the same. Roethlisberger has been in so many big games and come up a winner plenty of times. He spent his bye week icing down his body I'm sure after suffering 20 sacks in the first seven games. He also reflected upon his pace because after never throwing for more than 3,513 yards in a season he is looking at over 4,700. Maybe Rashard Mendenhall provides a boost to the running game and maybe not. I'm not sure it matters. This is going to be a street fight. Points will be at a premium. One team is going to do just a little more and get into position for a field goal, or score a long touchdown. I think you know which team is better at that: Pittsburgh 17, Denver 16 (DEN +3/under 40)