NFL Predictions and Analysis - Week 8
by Gregory Cox
College Football Director
11/1/09

I was pleased with my predictions last week. One of the games I missed was Buffalo over Carolina. The Panthers had a 425-167 edge in total yards, but a 4-0 deficit in turnovers because Jake Delhomme is one of the NFL’s worst quarterbacks. I had the Giants over Arizona and the Cards made me look bad with a solid showing under the SNF lights. Speaking of egg on my face, Chicago not only didn’t beat Cincinnati they were blitzed by them 45-10. I bit the bullet on that one. That was it though on the straight up ledger where I finished 10-3 to up my season mark to 76-27 (73.8%). My mediocrity when taking on Vegas continues. I stumbled against the spread at 5-7-1 leaving me slightly ahead overall (53-49-1). I did finally get on the plus side for the over/under at 7-5-1, but still trail overall (48-52-3). In case you haven’t added that up it is 101-101-4 which means only the house wins on the juice right? Now on to this week’s picks.

Denver (6-0) @ Baltimore (3-3): Just about halfway through the season I can say one of these teams is about where I expected them to be. I hope you can guess which one I'm talking about. The Ravens were great in the playoffs and a popular choice to join the elite. I was not so sure because quarterback Joe Flacco was simply managing games. My rationale for them hovering just over .500 fighting for a playoff berth as opposed to challenging for a bye week was his inability to take this team on his back offensively. This is what I like to call irony. He has been terrific for the most part, already throwing for 300+ yard three times plus another game with 264. By contrast last year even including 3 playoff games his high mark was 297. In 11 of 19 games he failed to reach 165. He has gone from "game manager" to a guy capable of moving the chains. Sticking with the theme of being wrong, his opposite number Kyle Orton has made the same transition. In Chicago he won games, but the defense always got the credit. Now in Denver he has an even better defense thus far. He has also thrown for at least 229 yards in five of six games. The exception was a 23-3 rout of Oakland. He has thrown 2 touchdown passes in each of the past three wins, all over quality opponents in the form of Dallas, New England and San Diego.

This time last year if anyone mentioned a Flacco vs. Orton quarterback showdown the expectation would be two guys trying not to lose the game. Suddenly both guys have the confidence to deliver under any circumstances. Obviously the Broncos have the edge with their sparkling record and the Ravens are reeling with three losses in a row. However, those were all tight starting at New England clouded in controversy. The home loss to Cincinnati came on the final drive and last week's road heartbreaker in Minnesota was painful when Hauschka failed to deliver from 44 yards out on the final play. For me this is just about a wash in terms of which team is better. It is more about effort. The Ravens have a little more on offense statistically. They have the stacked backfield and the Broncos are more talented at receiver. Discipline favors the Broncos who are one of the least penalized teams in the NFL with 33.

It is easy to say the home team has the better defense, but for 2009 clearly the visitors do. Denver leads the NFL in scoring defense (11.0) while Baltimore (21.7) is not even in the top half of the league. In terms of total yards allowed the Broncos are second (262.5) and again the Ravens are well down the list at #19 (332.7). The difference is defending the pass. Baltimore has lost too much talent at the cornerback position and superstar safety Ed Reed can't be everywhere at once. This is a problem with Brandon Marshall back on the straight and narrow. I feel like Denver is everything Baltimore used to be. They lead them in forced fumbles 10-4. Ray Lewis is great at giving speeches, but can the team deliver on the field? I kept doubting the Broncos until their last game two weeks ago. Both teams are coming off a bye which is how it should be whenever possible so that's a wash in terms of rest. In the momentum department Denver loses some and of course travels a great distance. Baltimore resets their confidence level. Here is what makes the difference for me. Orton has just 1 turnover this season. Eventually he is going to make a mistake. Emotion can play a role in big games and he finally gets rattled. This will be an epic: Baltimore 21, Denver 20 (DEN +3/under 42)

Houston (4-3) @ Buffalo (3-4): Before the season both of these teams had relatively high expectations. Adding Terrell Owens gave the Bills hope. The Texans always seem to be a trendy choice to finally get into the playoffs. After slow starts perception is starting to change back towards a possible wild care push for both teams. Buffalo could easily be 5-2 right now. Their opening night collapse against New England seems like it happened a long time ago doesn't it? Rock bottom was three weeks ago at home when a fumbled punt return helped Cleveland beat them 6-3 in by far the ugliest NFL game this season. However, somehow they have recovered behind backup quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick to beat the Jets and Carolina on the road the past two weeks. In the last three games their defense has allowed 26 points (discounting a safety given up by the offense) and two touchdowns. Who cares if T.O. can't catch a pass? On the other side the Texans were 3-1 in October with the only loss coming 28-21 at Arizona on a late pick six. Don't look now, but if the rest of the regular season was cancelled they would be a tiebreaker (head to head loss to Jets) away from claiming a wild card berth. This game has implications!

I know, it's hard to get excited for it. Andre Johnson might not play even as badly as he wants to. Even without him the Texans have weapons on offense. Matt Schaub leads the NFL with 16 touchdown passes. Steve Slaton has 645 total yards almost evenly split between rushing and receiving with 5 touchdowns. Their offensive weakness is converting third downs (34.8%) partially because they do not have a power running back for short yardage. Buffalo is much worse (26.6%) ranking ahead of only Cleveland and Kansas City, two of the worst teams in the NFL. Some of that comes from putting themselves in long situations with a league leading 55 penalties. Last week I thought the Bills would be victimized by Carolina's running game considering their run defense gives up an NFL high 172.4 yards per game. It didn't turn out that way. Slaton is not a punishing rusher, but he is vicious in open space and is comfortable playing in cold weather having played his college ball in the Big East.

Another glaring reason I can't see going with the Bills is Fitzpatrick leading the offense. However, the Texans have just 9 sacks which is third lowest in the NFL. If the Harvard grad can stay comfortable in the pocket and mostly hand the ball off to Jackson and Lynch against a defense giving up 4.7 yards per rush he could lead another unlikely win. It is always tough to judge a game when you don't know if a key player will be able to go. Houston's passing game might be in trouble here. The Bills allow the fourth lowest completion percentage (54.7%) to opposing quarterbacks and after wrecking Delhomme last week are now tied for the NFL lead in interceptions (13). I guess the summary is that I expect Buffalo to be able to run the ball in this game and any time you can do that at home it will be close unless turnovers become a big factor. Houston could struggle to pass the ball, especially if Johnson is out, but can rely on Slaton to deliver big plays. I would rather not pick this game to be honest because I can make a great argument on either side. When in doubt I'm taking Schaub over Fitzpatrick: Houston 19, Buffalo 13 (HOU -3.5/under 41.5)

Cleveland (1-6) @ Chicago (3-3): Things could not be worse for the Browns. Last week's home thrashing at the hands of Green Bay was their fifth loss by at least 13 points this season. Fans are protesting. The starting quarterback Derek Anderson has an NFL low (qualified "leaders") 40.6 rating, 43.8% completion rate and a vote of confidence. Which of those three does not belong in the sentence? Former first round pick Brady Quinn is languishing on the bench while he chats with his real estate agent about when his property will sell. Things are not too much better in the Windy City, also centered around the quarterback position. The guy they traded away has 1 turnover period on the season. Their new "franchise" signal caller has 11 interceptions. Ten of those have come in their three losses including a trio during last week's 45-10 thrashing at Cincinnati. Still, the popular opinion is that the Bears are a lot more talented than the Browns. I absolutely agree.

Offensively Cleveland is scoring just 10.3 points per game, third lowest in the NFL. Chicago is only #20 (21.5) but doubles their opponent. Both teams are giving up plenty of scoring, but the Browns are dead last in total yards (414.9) allowed with an NFL low 3 interceptions. Remember, Cutler has only 1 pick in three wins. Neither offense is picking up yardage. The Browns are second worst in both 225.4 yards per game and third down conversions (26.5%). We're looking at two of the 10 worst running teams, which is not surprising where Cleveland is concerned with the aging Jamal Lewis. It is eye opening for Chicago with Matt Forte coming off a great rookie season in 2008.

Those numbers will not hold in this game because the visiting Browns have the second worst run defense in average per carry (4.9). The Bears are more respectable and bolstered by the home crowd their defense helps them get a huge edge in rushing yards. Once they break the will of the visitors it is all over. The biggest challenge for Lovie Smith is calling as many running plays as possible until that happens. There is not much else to say. They are mad and take it out on the Browns: Chicago 31, Cleveland 7 (CHI -13/under 40.5)

Seattle (2-4) @ Dallas (4-2): Consistency is the key to success in the NFL. Injuries obviously hamper a team's ability to execute on a consistent basis, but you get my point. Here we have two teams struggling to perform at a high level every week. The Seahawks can put on game film of their shutouts of St. Louis or Jacksonville and feel pretty good. They can look at getting hammered at Indianapolis and when last seen two weeks ago against Arizona and feel pretty bad. Their bye week has given them a chance to catch their breath, but do they have the personnel to make any sort of run? I don't think so, and this game could put a stamp on their season as one that ends without a playoff berth again. Last year they played in the old stadium on Thanksgiving at got hammered by the Cowboys 34-9. This year it's the day after Halloween and a shiny new building. Their only hope is to see the inconsistent version of the 'Boys. Every game had been a struggle for Dallas since whipping Tampa Bay in the opener until they came out of their bye week and put one on Atlanta 37-21. In the weird stat department they are now 3-0 against the NFC South and obviously 1-2 against everyone else. Seattle qualifies as the latter.

If I'm looking for anything else to swing this towards the 'Hawks I guess I could point to an NFL low 27 penalties. They have been able to have a little more success on defense statistically both against the run and pass. Those numbers don't mean that much because of their two dominant efforts over struggling teams. One other stat I point to is these defenses combining for just 7 interceptions. The quarterbacks should have a lot of success in this game. Seattle allows opposing signal callers to complete 68.4% of their passes, fourth worst in the NFL. Dallas is not far behind (61.5%) and has been struggling to mount a consistent pass rush after leading the NFL with 59 sacks last season.

Run defense has not been a strength of either team as well with both averaging 4.3 yards per carry allowed and lingering the middle of the pack for rushing yards given up per game. The Dallas running backs have been banged up, but they are going to have someone ready to do some damage. Seattle has the jilted ex-Cowboy Julius Jones making his second appearance against his former team. I am not expecting him to go Cedric Benson let's leave it at that. This game is about Tony Romo having a decent day throwing the ball to new best friend Miles Austin and letting the running game do the rest. On the other side Matt Hasselbeck wishes he had Walter Jones from a few years back healthy to protect his blind side. Expect a few turnovers from him, probably fumbles, to put them in a hole they can't get out of: Dallas 31, Seattle 17 (DAL -9.5/over 45.5)

St. Louis (0-7) @ Detroit (1-5): The tendency here is to assume the Rams get their first win because they are due and this is their best chance. If they lose this game to enter their bye week halfway towards joining last year's Lions as the only 0-16 teams ever consider what they will be facing. Sure, Seattle is 2-4. They also spanked them 28-0 to open the season at Qwest. Tennessee is 0-6, but has a lot of the personnel left from last year's 13-3 unit plus the game is in the Music City. The rest of their opponents are 3-3 or better. Obviously Detroit knows how they feel having gone 2-28 since about this time in 2008. The bigger problem for St. Louis is that with 17 losses in a row already on their ledger suddenly they could be chasing the Bucs who lost their first 26 as an expansion team in 1976. Somewhere Steve Spurrier is smiling at the prospect of the Rams losing out and needing a win to start the 2010 season to avoid standing alone as the biggest losers. When two losers get together, something has to give right? Sometimes the teams look average when paired up on the same field.

For as bad as the Detroit offense has been scoring 17.2 points per game they are twice as prolific as NFL worst St. Louis (8.6). Both offenses are in the bottom 8 for total yards per game. On the defensive side it is just as ugly. Only the Titans have given up more points per game than the Rams (30.1) or Lions (31.3) and both are in the bottom 7 when it comes to total yards given up each game. There is some separation in run defense where St. Louis gives up 23.6 more yards a game, but they allow 4.3 yards per carry to Detroit's 4.6. Muddying the waters even more is the fact that clearly Steven Jackson is a superior feature back when compared to Kevin Smith. He is a gamer and even during another lost season has surpassed the century mark three times rushing and five times when adding in receiving yards.

The other factor to consider is quarterback play. Bulger went back into his hole last week after showing a glimpse of his Martz era form the previous week in an OT loss at Jacksonville. Speaking of ex-St. Louis head coaches who went to Detroit and became offensive coordinators, I present Scott Linehan trying to draw up a game plan for Daunte Culpepper. It looks like rookie Matthew Stafford will be out again. Come to think of it, Bulger vs. Culpepper might have been exciting a few years ago. Now it's just two guys holding the spot. Bulger's replacement will be determined in the 2010 draft. As much as I like the desperation factor for the Rams and the running of Jackson, I also like how Detroit played to the end when last seen at Ford Field throwing a bit of a scare into Pittsburgh before falling 28-20. Their defense is run by Jim Schwartz and anyone watching the Titans without him knows what this guy can do. He does not have the personnel to make a difference yet, but with every passing week they should be closer. Against a one-dimensional opponent they will do just enough: Detroit 24, St. Louis 19 (DET -3.5/under 45)

San Francisco (3-3) @ Indianapolis (6-0): Last year the Colts took a break from their typical winning streak to start the season. Instead they won their final 9. If there is a "Tiger Slam" in golf I guess this is a "Peyton Perfection" on the line as they try to go 16-0 in a calender year for the regular season. Manning finally failed to throw for 300 yards last week in a 42-6 rout at St. Louis. I'm sure he is heartbroken. He is still on pace to join the elite group of passers with 5,000 yards in a season. The NFL is built for parity, but they have won by 17+ points in their past four games. Things are not quite as rosy for the visiting 49ers. About the only similarity is that they too will start a former #1 overall pick at quarterback. Alex Smith shook off the rust and played a tremendous second half at Houston, falling just short of rallying the team to victory. Mike Singletary anointed him starter over Shaun Hill who is now 10-6 for his brief career. The switch coincides with flashy rookie wide receiver Michael Crabtree finally getting on the field. It might indicate the offense is ready to start trying to win games as opposed to just plodding along.

I'm seeing this as a pretty big mismatch. We all know the Colts can move the football, but most think the 49ers can run the ball a little bit right? Their rushing offense is only slightly more effective in nearly the identical number of carries. I'm talking 0.3 yards per carry and neither team has managed 100 yards a game. The difference of course is that one team can turn to one of the best quarterbacks ever to wear a uniform if the running game is not there. The other team goes to Alex Smith, who might not even be the best Alex Smith playing professional football at the moment. Okay, maybe he is better than the tight end now playing for the Eagles. You get my point.

Let's talk a little defense. Would you be surprised to hear Indy is #2 in scoring defense at 12.8 points per game? Basically all of that has come without impact safety Bob Sanders who typically pushes their unit over the top. He is on the mend and could see more time this week. The 49ers do have a better run defense and have been very stingy giving up 3.3 yards per rush and 88.8 yards per game on the ground. The way I expect this game to go, however, San Francisco will pass by necessity and Indianapolis will do so because they are awesome at it. Even without Sanders the Colts have given up just 179.8 yards passing per game and an NFL low 2 touchdown passes. It was nice to see Alex Smith look like a #1 pick last week, but this week is going to be a different story. I don't see them staying in the game. The Colts sort of hold out their arm, put it on the head of their opponent and make like an older brother teasing a little brother: Indianapolis 27, San Francisco 13 (IND -13/under 45)

Miami (2-4) @ NY Jets (4-3): All bets are off when these teams get together. They have played classic after classic including the meeting earlier this season on Monday Night Football. The Dolphins won 31-27 largely on the back of their Wildcat offense and the efficient passing of new starting quarterback Chad Henne. The key to the game was three long, grind it out touchdown scoring drives. The first was right out of the gate, 12 plays covering 80 yards chewing up 7:29 off the clock. Then starting midway through the third quarter came another huge march of 15 plays eating up another 8:41. Finally, they took the ball down 3 with 5:05 to play and 13 plays later scored the winning touchdown with just a few seconds left. If Miami wants to save their season, bear in mind a visit to New England is next on the schedule, their game plan has to be geared towards duplicating that type of effort. New York is ready for them this time though, even without run stuffer Kris Jenkins and dynamic scoring threat Leon Washington. Their biggest problem last week at Oakland was quarterback Mark Sanchez's sideline eating habits.

Injuries are never good, but at least the Jets know rookie Shonn Greene can carry the football at this level. He logged 19 carries for 144 yards and scored twice, albeit against a Raider defense that gets disinterested when an opponent is crushing them. Greene is not by any stretch a replacement for Washington because his style is similar to their leading rusher Thomas Jones. He gives them more of a pounding two-back running game. They need all the help they can get against a Miami defense allowing just 86.7 yards per game on the ground, fourth best in the NFL, and 3.7 yards per carry. As a result the Jets are likely to attack a pass defense weakened by the loss of cornerback Will Allen. Either way, I'm not expecting a lot of points this time around after the 58 put up in the first meeting. When Miami goes to the air it will be against a secondary giving up just 181.4 yards per game. New York has allowed the second worst opposing completion percentage (54.0%) and the third fewest touchdown passes (4). Their big issue is mounting a pass rush with 8 sacks, besting only Jacksonville in that category.

There is a lot of trash talk and emotion on both sides. Henne has been pretty good in ostensibly a month quarterbacking this team, but his only action on the road was in relief of the injured Chad Pennington. This will be hostile territory and unpleasant conditions. I think Sanchez settled down a bit last week and will not be put into a position to blow a game as he did against Buffalo recently on this field. In a typical fist fight in the AFC East I have to take the home field advantage and I'm counting on Rex Ryan figuring out a way to mask the absence of Jenkins while knocking Henne off his spot in the pocket at the same time: NY Jets 17, Miami 13 (NYJ -3.5/under 41)

NY Giants (5-2) @ Philadelphia (4-2): These people keep telling me about something known as the “World Series” between teams referred to as the Yankees and Phillies. Does anyone know what this is? Apparently these two cities are involved. As far as I’m concerned it pales in comparison to this NFC East showdown. It would be an even bigger game if not for both teams playing so poorly the past two weeks. The Giants had their helmets handed to them at New Orleans and then got dumped at home by Arizona on national television. The Eagles were stunned at Oakland and mustered up just 262 total yards at Washington last week despite being in control of the scoreboard throughout. Whoever wins this game (the McNabb tie jokes are worn out right?) is going to gain an instant shot of momentum going into the second half of the season.

Eli Manning has the advantage of not being intimidated to play in this stadium where he is 4-0. It is worth noting he did lose twice to the Eagles at home last year including the divisional playoffs. McNabb hasn’t beaten the Giants at home since T.O. was his receiver and Tiki Barber was running for New York. Scoring hasn’t been a problem for either offense under their Pro Bowl caliber quarterbacks with both averaging better than 27 points per game. The Giants average 54.6 more yards per game though and have a 9% edge converting third downs. Defensively New York leads the NFL in yards per game allowed (262.0) and Philadelphia is seventh (287.0) although neither team is in the top 10 for scoring defense. The Eagles are third in interceptions (12) and second in sacks (21) during their first season without the late Jim Johnson calling the shots.

A lot of this information can be thrown out the window if Brian Westbrook is not able to go. Even if Philly has a lot of weapons on offense he holds the attention of the opposing defense on every play. That being said, it might be better for their offense to unleash LeSean McCoy against a defense allowing a mediocre 4.2 yards per carry. The Giants have given up 10 rushing touchdowns, third most in the NFL. It probably doesn’t matter because the Eagles refuse to run the football. I hate to base a prediction on an iffy injury report, but without Westbrook they are 0-3 against these guys: NY Giants 22, Philadelphia 19 (NYG -1/under 45)

Oakland (2-5) @ San Diego (3-3): Although the first meeting was a fight to the end to close the season’s first week it is hard to see the rematch being a repeat of that 24-20 decision won by the Chargers on a late touchdown. The Raiders have not scored more than 13 points in a game since and throwing out their stunning upset of the Eagles allowed an average of 37 points in three October losses. Even if San Diego is not living up to their preseason hype as the cream of the AFC West they can still compete with any team in the conference. Losses to Baltimore, Pittsburgh and Denver were all competitive. Their defense is down, that much is clear. Their offense, however, has been consistent with 23+ points in every game of the season. It doesn’t take much scoring to put Oakland away given their offensive ineptitude.

Let me explain it this way. The Raiders average 220.9 total yards per game. Half the NFL averages more than that when only counting their passing yardage. How about first downs per game? They average 12.1 or roughly half of NFL leading New England (23.9). In time of possession their 26:13 average tops only winless Tennessee. It is easy to hang this on JaMarcus Russell. I could pile on him every week and be justified in doing so. A lot of it has to do with the offensive line being banged up and not a great unit to start with. The running game, a rare bright spot in 2008, has managed just 3.6 yards per carry. Shockingly, the Chargers are even worse in that department (3.1) and ahead of only Arizona in rushing yards per game (70.5). They have Philip Rivers though and he has thrown for 250+ yards in every game this season.

On the stat sheet this is a mismatch, but probably not as much as most would think. San Diego’s run defense has given up the fifth most yards per game (137.7). Oakland is third (169.7) with an NFL worst 11 rushing touchdowns allowed. LT might not be able to destroy them at this point in his career, but Sproles will do some damage. There could even be a Jacob Hester or Michael Bennett sighting. They have to find someone to run the ball in the unlikely event Rivers is having an off game. Stranger things have happened. The Raiders have a tendency to come up big when no one expects it. I’m not seeing it here. In their last two road games they have been listless. The days of it being a “home” game in this stadium are long gone. Even a near blackout crowd is enough to intimidate them into folding early: San Diego 31, Oakland 10 (SD -16.5/under 42.5)

Jacksonville (3-3) @ Tennessee (0-6): When I picked all of the games prior to the season as I always do the Titans came out dead last in this division. It now seems likely this bold prediction will come true, especially if the Jags are able to beat them. Considering it is the same team that smacked them around 37-17 a month ago in the Sunshine State I would say last place is a realistic landing spot. There will be a change at quarterback for the rematch because, well, owner Bud Adams says so. Vince Young will be trying to channel his rookie season back in 2006 when he took the full reins of a team floundering at 0-5 and helped them finish 7-9. The next season he guided the Titans into the playoffs. Since then let’s just say the road has been rocky. He is probably not the answer to their offensive woes, but at this point what is there to lose? Giving him another shot to start let’s them know once and for all that he is a draft bust. He is not accurate enough to cut the mustard and not athletic enough to compensate for it with his legs.

His opposite number David Garrard has a chance to keep the Jags in the playoff hunt. Sure, they were last seen escaping against St. Louis in OT prior to their bye week, but now they get winless Tennessee and next up is hapless Kansas City. They could be 5-3 at midseason feeling pretty good. Garrard has three games with 280+ yards passing after going 275+ only five times all of last season. Their difficulties finding help at receiver are well chronicled. When Sims-Walker is not misbehaving he has been decent and even if Holt is playing out the string of his possibly Hall of Fame career he has been okay.

The difference in this game is going to be running the football. I’m still trying to figure out how the Titans average 5.3 yards per carry, second best in the NFL, and allow 3.4 for fourth best yet have failed to win a game. Isn’t running the ball and stopping it the key to victory? Well, only if the passing offense isn’t inept and passing offense isn’t horrendous. If a quarterback threw for 4,971 yards with 51 touchdowns and 11 interceptions would that be a good season? That’s what the stats put up so far against this defense translate to for a full season. It is eye popping. Albert Haynesworth providing a push up the middle on the defensive line and Jim Schwartz coordinating the unit are sorely missed. The Jaguars are the second worst pass defense, but at 262.0 yards per game are still significantly less horrible than the Titans (310.7). Neither team is much of a threat to sack the passer. I would love to find a reason I could pick Tennessee to get off the zero. Maybe they are rested off the bye week? Oh, so is their opponent. It’s close, but with Young at the controls the Jags can put more attention towards stopping the run: Jacksonville 26, Tennessee 20 (JAX +3/over 44)

Minnesota (6-1) @ Green Bay (4-2): Thanks to the World Series this game was pushed to a late start and will be seen by everyone not in Arizona or Carolina territory. If you thought the first game against his former team was big, Favre’s return to Cheesehead country will dwarf that in the emotion department. This time the fans have the option of cheering for or against him. There could be fights in the stands between Packer fans. In the first meeting Rodgers was nearly able to spoil the party with 384 yards passing, but Green Bay’s offense hurt its own cause with turnovers and 8 sacks allowed in a 30-23 loss. Everyone expected Adrian Peterson to carry the Viking offense all season, but he was limited to 2.2 yards per carry by the Packer defense while Favre passed for 271 yards and 3 touchdowns.

Injuries could play a big part in the rematch. Antoine Winfield puts the Viking secondary down one playmaker and his replacement Karl Paymah is dealing with a quad injury. If Rodgers nearly went for four bills against these guys at full strength he has to be looking for a career game. On the other side Favre loses a weapon in Bernard Berrian. Percy Harvin is also sick, as usual, although he probably will play. Filed under “strange stats that do not make sense” I present the offensive rushing stats. You would think AD gives Minnesota a huge edge, but both teams average 4.3 yards per carry and the Vikes hold a 119.9-118.0 edge in yards per game. Some of that is a result of Rodgers scrambling for 136 yards, and Ryan Grant surging for 238 yards the past two weeks against bad defenses (Detroit, Cleveland). The “Williams Wall” has been fairly mortal this season giving up 4.1 yards per carry, but can still make an opponent one-dimensional.

I’m looking at Rodgers feeding off the Lambeau crowd and having a big game against this weakened secondary. Favre got his revenge already and while he wants to do it on the frozen tundra his former team’s secondary is having a great season. Green Bay is fourth in passing yards allowed (174.0) with the fourth most interceptions (11) and third lowest completion percentage allowed (54.4%). Needless to say they also know how to play Favre. It’s an emotional game. Anything can happen, but having seen the Pack shut down “All Day” once they should be able to limit him enough to force Favre into some of his trademark killer mistakes: Green Bay 31, Minnesota 27 (GB -3/over 47)

Carolina (2-4) @ Arizona (4-2): Jake Delhomme has something to be thankful for. If not for the World Series this might have been a primetime game considering it is a playoff rematch. More than that, thanks to Favre’s little Wisconsin homecoming only the local markets in these two cities will be watching this game from start to finish. As a result not too many eyes are going to be on him as he tries not to repeat one of the ugliest playoff performances ever. Delhomme has 15 of the team’s NFL high 21 turnovers this season, so not much has changed since he handed it to the Cards 6 times in January to jump start their run to the Super Bowl. Fox is sticking with him, giving the old “best chance to win” argument. He is probably right because A.J. Feeley and Matt Moore have backup stamped on their foreheads. Aside from the obvious, there are other reasons to love Arizona here. Carolina can still do somedamage running the football. They will be facing the #1 run defense in yards per carry (3.0) and per game (67.5) in this one. It seems like we have established the Panthers will not be able to pass the ball without turning it over and are going to struggle running the ball. Does anything else matter? One thing going for the visitors is an NFL leading pass defense. Carolina has given up just 149.7 yards passing per game, but they also have faced the fewest pass attempts on average (25.2) and allow the sixth highest completion percentage (65.6%). Kurt Warner is still an accurate passer at 38 years old and carries the Arizona offense at the moment. He could be getting more help from rookie running back Beanie Wells who has seen his work load increase of late. Any way this game is cut up, the Cards seem to be playing more like the defending NFC champs while the Panthers are heading down the drain. Any momentum built up from knocking off Washington and Tampa Bay was washed away during a mind numbing loss to Buffalo last week. Next up is a trip to New Orleans which should drop them to 2-6 and officially out of it: Arizona 28, Carolina 17 (CAR -9/over 41)

Atlanta (4-2) @ New Orleans (6-0): For a change the MNF audience will be treated a game most people want to see. In a wacky bit of scheduling this marks the first divisional game for the Saints. By contrast there are 29 teams who have already played twice within their division. This game will have a huge impact on what looks like a two-team race in the South. If Atlanta wins they will trail by a single game and control their own destiny. If New Orleans wins the lead is three games plus a tiebreaker. With three meetings against winless teams (St. Louis, Tampa Bay twice) left that would be a tough deficit to overcome. This seems like a season of destiny for the Saints after their dramatic comeback from 24-3 down to 46-34 up last week at Miami. They are leading the NFL in scoring by almost 10 points per game and on pace to put up 635. The record setting Patriots of 2007 posted 589.

The scary part about their offense is the balance. They are sixth in passing and fourth in rushing. Atlanta doesn’t rank in the top half of the NFL in either category. The lack of a consistent running game has held down the Falcons on offense. Their average per carry is a dismal 3.6. After tearing up the league last year Michael Turner has topped 100 yards only once and it took him 28 carries to get there. Jerious Norwood’s inability to stay healthy has certainly not helped. On the other side the Saints have masterfully utilized Bell, Thomas and Bush who collectively average 173.5 total yards per game. Drew Brees has connected with six different receivers at least 10 times so it is easy to see why teams are having difficulty stopping this offense. The Falcons are now #25 in total defense allowing 368.3 yards per game. Their run defense has been suspect giving up 4.6 yards per carry, fifth most in the NFL. I’m not seeing them being able to keep up. It will be fun to watch Matt Ryan try, but if he gets behind by too much Darren Sharper might bring back another pick to the house: New Orleans 33, Atlanta 24 (ATL +11/over 54)