NFL Predictions and Analysis - Week 7
by Gregory Cox
College Football Director
10/25/09

Just thinking about failing to pick double digit winners was enough to wreck my season opening streak. I still managed to go 9-5 straight up, thank you Denver, and stand 66-24 overall (73.3%). Cincinnati tripped me up although I did say “nothing will surprise me” and Houston showed up ready to play on the road. I wasn’t about to pick Kansas City under any circumstances so I can live with that one. As for Philadelphia choking at Oakland, you could knock me over with a feather and I will not say that very often. It was not stunning to see Arizona win at Seattle, but wiping out the Seahawks did have me shaking my head. The New York Jets had every opportunity to dispatch Buffalo and Mark Sanchez kept throwing it away. Hey, I didn’t throw those passes so don’t blame me.

When it comes to “taking on” Vegas I was my typical mediocre self. I took a step back against the spread at 6-8 and stand just ahead on the season at 48-42. After five weeks without a tie, there were a pair this week on the over under at 6-6-2 leaving me at 41-47-2 overall. Remember, these picks are for entertainment purposes only. I list the spread because I like to see how I do against it, but I do not gamble on football personally. End of public service announcement and on to this week’s predictions.

Green Bay (3-2) @ Cleveland (1-5): The NFL can be a battle of attrition. It is said the best teams are the healthiest ones. The Packers found a pair of healthy bodies to help them offset injuries. Tackle Chad Clifton and running back Ahman Green were unemployment statistics last week. Now both are being counted on to give this team some semblance of a running game. This is a good time to establish it against the Browns, who are the third most porous run defense at 165.3 yards per game and also third worst per carry (4.9). Even getting carved up the easy way has not kept them from getting beaten via the pass and Raider fans probably recognize Rob Ryan’s NFL worst overall defense well. Head coach Eric Mangini might wish he had the flu that has plagued his roster this week, anything to keep from having to witness this disaster.

If having the worst defense was not enough, how about the #31 ranked offense at 239.8 yards per game? They are actually down 10 yards per game compared to 2008. It is hard to win while facing an average -167.5 yard deficit. Naturally a lot of the attention centers on the quarterback position. Derek Anderson remains in charge of the offense, possibly because it saves the team money on incentives to keep Brady Quinn on the bench. I’m speculating of course, but would it surprise anyone? There is talk of this team getting rookie running back James Davis hurt during practice when he was hit while not wearing shoulder pads so nothing is out of the question when it comes to the Brownies.

The only positive for Cleveland is being back in the Dawg Pound after spending four of the past five weeks on the road. When last seen on this field they were losing on a last second field goal to rival Cincinnati in OT. It is hard to estimate how much more effort they will generate being back at home, especially coming off a somewhat decent showing at Pittsburgh despite being outgained 543-197. Green Bay came out of their bye week and smothered Detroit 26-0. This will be their first outdoor road game this season having won in St. Louis and lost in Minnesota previously. I mention this because the Packers are primarily a passing team at the moment. This game could be played on Mars and I would not pick the Browns. It’s now how, it’s by how much. I will go with a more than a little: Green Bay 25, Cleveland 12 (GB -8.5/under 41)

San Francisco (3-2) @ Houston (3-3): Things change very quickly in the NFL. Just a few weeks ago the 49ers were 3-1 having swept their division foes and talking playoffs. A crushing 45-10 home loss to Atlanta sent them reeling into their bye week. The Texans have alternated wins and losses thus far, but are clearly a better team in September compared to October. They also come in with momentum after last week’s solid 28-17 win at Cincinnati. There is a common opponent to consider as well. Both teams went to Arizona. San Francisco stunned the defending NFC champs 20-16 in week 1. Houston lost 28-21 when “DRC” took a Schaub interception to the house with just a few minutes to play.

There is also the business of Michael Crabtree’s season debut. I was sky high on him dating back to 2007, his freshman year at Texas Tech. I touted him as a Heisman candidate based on his ridiculous 134 receptions for 1,962 yards and 22 touchdowns. His numbers were down in his sophomore campaign and after getting hurt late in the season decided to enter the draft. I bring this up because I’m not sure he is really healthy enough to be the player who was well worth the #10 overall spot. In a strange way this contract dispute might have helped his career along. Now the expectations for 2009 are lowered due to the money issues when in reality he might have re-injured himself had he been participating fully with the team from the jump.

Now back to players who will actually make an impact in this game, like Andre Johnson. When last seen the 49er secondary was being torched by Matt Ryan’s Falcons. Enter the hottest quarterback in the league and an elite receiver. Thanks in part to guys named Peyton and Drew already having had their bye week Schaub has an NFL high 14 touchdown passes. The 49ers can’t afford to get involved in a high scoring game because Hill, who gets sacked 3 times per game, has just 5 scoring strikes all season. The running game has been merely average. They did spend the off week shaking up the right side of their offensive line and getting Gore healthy. If the Texans weren’t passing for over 300 yards a game someone might notice them near the bottom of the NFL in yards per carry (3.0) and game (77.3). However, Slaton provides big plays in their offense. The hot defense will carry the day in this one. Never mind the Texans allowing 4.9 yards per rush on the season they are containing the run this month: Houston 27, San Francisco 14 (HOU -3/under 44.5)

San Diego (2-3) @ Kansas City (1-5): Perhaps the Chargers bought into the notion that they would walk to the AFC West title this season. After getting smacked by the shocking Broncos on their home turf for everyone to see on MNF how will this team respond? Suddenly, an AFC powerhouse has turned into a team wondering if they can contend for a wild card. After starting 4-8 last year and rebounding to win the division at least they know a rally is in them. The Chiefs are elated to have just won a game. They were victimized on this very field by the late season run by San Diego. Their 21-10 lead seemed secure as the announcers repeatedly talked about the game being over with just a few minutes to play. A pair of touchdowns sandwiched around on onside kick recover later it was not the case.

One thing that game proved is that Kansas City can play with San Diego. The stat sheet tells a strange tale about these defenses. You would expect the Chargers to have a huge edge, but it’s not the case. Both are in the bottom 10 for total yards allowed and while the Chiefs give up more yards per game (379.8-358.2) they have the scoring edge (24.0-27.2). Another eyebrow raising stat is the Chiefs ranking #4 in the NFL when it comes to quarterback completion percentage allowed (55.2). The problem for them is the 10/3 touchdown to interception ratio and a healthy 249.5 yards per game given up. If Rivers can be patient he should have a big day. He was over 300 yards in both meetings last year after being ineffective against this defense previously in his young career.

It’s unusual not to be talking about the marquee running backs in this game, but neither team has been able to do much in that area. The guys known simply as LJ and LT have gone from fantasy football elite to afterthoughts. San Diego is tied for dead last in the NFL for yards per carry (2.9) and game (57.6). Kansas City is not far behind in either category (3.4, 98.0) and is one of 3 teams without a single rushing touchdown on the season. With each run defense in the bottom 8 for yards per game allowed this is a good time for both teams to pull their running game off life support. It is going to be harder for the Chiefs because their offensive line is a mess. In fact, that’s the difference in what will be a surprisingly close game: San Diego 23, Kansas City 17 (SD -5/under 44)

Minnesota (6-0) @ Pittsburgh (4-2): The Favre honeymoon has lasted almost two months. This appears to be a wake up call waiting to happen. Roethlisberger might be down 3-0 in the MVP count to the old man, but he is 2-1 up in the ring count and has home field advantage. Playing behind an offensive line that gets bad mouthed more than any starting five on a playoff caliber team Big Ben has managed to complete 72.5% of his passes for 314.5 yards per game. Playing with the best running back of his two decade career Favre is also sharper than ever completing 69.7% of his passes and has only 2 turnovers. The Vikings lean on Adrian Peterson running the ball, but lack reliable threats in the passing game. Sidney Rice is off to a nice start. Bernard Berrian is averaging 10.6 yards per reception which is awful for a big play threat. Rookie Percy Harvin is either injured or sick every week. Against a defense like Pittsburgh if you are unable to maintain balance they are going to come after the quarterback in a hurry or stack up to stop the run.

The Steelers, conversely, have no standout running back. Rashard Mendenhall is showing signs of being worthy of the first round pick they spent on him last year, but Willie Parker is flailing with a 3.1 per carry average. However, in the passing game Hines Ward, Santonio Holmes, tight end Heath Miller and even rookie Mike Wallace are threats to make plays. The receiving trio is averaging 14.6+ yards per reception and all four of them have at least 296 yards on the season with a combined 8 touchdowns. The problem for Minnesota is that cornerback Antoine Winfield is out and three of their safeties are ailing. Who is going to cover these guys? It is understood that the Williams Wall is going to stop the run. Jared Allen is going to wreak some havoc rushing at Big Ben. At some point the secondary needs to make a few plays though and I see Pittsburgh carving them up.

Can Favre win a shootout? Nothing is out of the question. The better strategy is slowing the game down with a heavy dose of Peterson which is easier said than done against the #2 run defense at 74.5 yards per game. Eventually the Vikings will need to pass their way back into this game. Troy Polamalu is back in the lineup this week and is always up for a big game like this. I’ll take the guy with more jewelry: Pittsburgh 23, Minnesota 20 (MIN +6/under 46)

Indianapolis (5-0) @ St. Louis (0-6): Is there anything to discuss here? The Colts are going to be a popular pick in suicide pools this week for sure. They will have to beat the Rams here for the first time ever. Okay, they’re 0-1 but still. In years past we would be talking about a high scoring game on the turf. St. Louis is having a hard time scoring these days. Last week’s 20 point effort at Jacksonville set a new season high. The result was another loss, and just to make it more painful it came in OT. Ironically, considering the Colts sputtered past the Jags 14-12 in the season opener maybe they have a chance right? Well, the other common opponent result is not so positive. Seattle smoked the Rams 28-0 and got wasted by the Colts 34-17 including two garbage time touchdowns.

There are times when Indy struggles in games like this on the road against an obviously inferior opponent for whatever reason. To avoid getting involved in a tussle Manning has to put the hammer down early. He should be able to do it against a defense giving up 252.0 yards per game passing and allowing opposing quarterbacks to complete 66.7% of their passes. St. Louis can probably hold up defending the run. The Colts yet again struggle in terms of average per rush (3.3) whether it’s Addai or the rookie Brown. The duo has 291 yards receiving on 33 catches compared to just 364 yards rushing on 106 carries. This is certainly not a smash mouth attack folks.

The Rams on the other hand would like to punch their opponents in the face with the running game. Elite running back Steven Jackson already has 501 yards rushing and another 170 receiving despite playing on the lowest scoring team in the NFL. I used to say with him in there the Rams have a fighting chance. Right now everyone knows he is their only offensive threat. Bulger returned at quarterback last week and had his best game of the season, which isn’t saying much considering it was his first trip past 200 yards – barely at 213. They are so desperate for receiver help they had to trade for Brandon Gibson (Eagles). Usually I have a hard time picking a team to get routed on their home field under any circumstances. In this case it will only be a matter of how badly the Colts want to put it on them. I think they want to get Peyton past 300 yards again to keep his streak going so I’ll factor that in. Any rust from the bye week will be worked out early: Indianapolis 31, St. Louis 13 (IND -14/under 45)

New England (4-2) @ Tampa Bay (0-6): Technically this is a home game for the Bucs, but obviously it will be at Wembley Stadium in London, England. Their owner Malcolm Glazer also has the pink slip for Manchester United so he is familiar with the territory at least. I keep thinking Peter Griffin, the father from Family Guy, is somehow going to show up and play for the Patriots just to keep things interesting. Everyone seems to be talking about how New England is not going to blow Tampa Bay out. It is not going to snow this week, but it is hard to get the image of them annihilating the Titans 59-0 last week. By contrast it was only a month ago that the Bucs were shut out on their home field by the Giants. In three games since then the offense has scored a total of 27 points. One of the touchdowns was late in a blowout loss at Philadelphia. I’m not seeing how they can match scores with Brady spraying the ball all over the field, or “pitch” as the locals might call it.

The disparity in total yards is pretty jarring. New England is +111.4 yards per game and Tampa Bay is -92.5. Josh Johnson has proven to be a rushing threat at quarterback with 40+ yards in each of the past three games, but going up against a living legend that’s not enough. They actually average a solid 4.4 yards per rushing attempt. The issue has been falling behind and having to abandon the run. They have the third fewest rushes per game at 22.8. Is it too late to convert this to a soccer game? Tampa Bay has to keep it low scoring. Their defense has given up the third most passing touchdowns (13) in the NFL. Guess what? The Pats have their offense back in 2007 form. Plus, their stable of running backs is depleted by injury. New England needs to throw the ball. Even if Tampa Bay can have success against a defense running out of linebackers and allowing an uncharacteristically high 4.7 yards per carry, eventually they need to give it up. When they do, it will be lights out: New England 34, Tampa Bay 9 (NE -14.5/under 45)

Buffalo (2-4) @ Carolina (2-3): Even with similar records coming off a victory these teams are not in the same situation. The Bills are starting three rookies on their offensive line and a backup quarterback. What they were hoping would be a surprise breakout season after signing wide receiver Terrell Owens has quickly deteriorated into coach Dick Jauron seeing a clock ticking down above his head. As in when he will be fired. Last week’s OT win over the Jets cooled down his proverbial hot seat. However, there are not too many wins left on the schedule. The Panthers are trying to keep their coach John Fox from getting fired as well, and getting back to .500 would be a step in that direction. Their prospects are a lot better because they have viable defense and potentially dominant running game.

This week the glaring weakness on both sides is run defense. Buffalo allows the most yards per carry (5.3) and per game (181.8). Carolina is not far behind in either department (5.0, 149.2). The Panthers have the more experienced offensive line to take advantage of this mismatch. Meanwhile, their defensive line for all the problems stopping the run still has Julius Peppers to harass Ryan Fitzpatrick. Without the threat of a passing game their linebackers and a safety will creep up towards the line. Even if Jake Delhomme is a turnover machine it seems like the coaching staff has figured out how to limit his passes and still move the football. Another common thread is underutilized star receivers. Steve Smith and Terrell Owens have been dominant this decade. Expect big plays from Smith and more silence from TO: Carolina 28, Buffalo 10 (CAR -7/over 37)

NY Jets (3-3) @ Oakland (2-4): A few weeks ago everyone would have been picking New York to win this game in a heartbeat. They were 3-0 feeding off the swagger of head coach Rex Ryan and solid play of rookie quarterback Mark Sanchez. A bevy of turnovers later and those words are ringing a little hollow now. I’m sure he will be fired up this week to lead his guys into the Black Hole where his twin brother was essentially run out as defensive coordinator last year. As for picking against the Raiders, up until last week they had no pulse whatsoever. In the previous three games Oakland had been outscored 96-16 and needed a wake up call. It came in the form of Giants linebacker Antonio Pierce comparing playing them to a “scrimmage”.

Anyone who thinks this is a lock for the J-E-T-S only needs to remember last year, and Tom Cable’s first win as a head coach against this same team. Thomas Jones did his work running the ball, but ultimately the Raiders prevailed thanks to a 57-yard field goal in overtime 16-13. Favre was the quarterback in that one and this time California native Sanchez is going to be playing for friends and family. I’m not sure the added pressure helps him. Quarterbacks have had a tough time in this stadium. Even with probably the best cornerback in the game, Nnamdi Asomugha, out with a poked eye Oakland was able to wreak havoc on McNabb’s Eagles. A lot of it was the shock factor of them blitzing which is highly unusual for a Raider defense. Will they do it again? I think they have to, but while Philly stubbornly refused to run the ball against a defense thus far unable to stop it New York will definitely come after them with Jones and Washington.

The real problem with counting on another upset for the Silver & Black is their lack of offense. Never mind the box score showing Russell going 17/28 for 224 yards and a touchdown against the Eagles last week. A huge chunk, 38% if you want the exact number, came on the TD to tight end Zach Miller. He did most of the work on that play. If he had dropped it Russell would have been looking at 138 yards and a pair of interceptions, which has been common for him this season. Their running game kicked it up a notch last week, but is still not up to what it was in 2008. The offensive line is still banged up. Big play threat Darren McFadden is out, but the power combo of Fargas and Bush might be more effective. New York losing Kris Jenkins weakens their run defense considerably. I don’t think they strike lightning in a bottle again because I have watched enough Raider football to know that just when you think they can rise up they blow it: NY Jets 17, Oakland 13 (OAK +7/under 35)

Chicago (3-2) @ Cincinnati (4-2): This game has become more about a disgruntled player’s gripe than two teams trying to stay in the early playoff picture. Cedric Benson was dumped by the Bears, who had taken him #5 overall in the 2005 draft, after three ineffective seasons. The Bengals picked him up and after he had some success late last year retained his services. He is third in the NFL with 531 yards and feeling good about the move. It’s hard to believe him when he says revenge is not on his mind after he said the team tried to blackball him, therefore preventing him from catching on to keep his career alive. Here and now he just needs to run the ball. Chicago looks like they will be missing defensive tackle Tommie Harris which weakens their better than average run defense. The man who replaced Benson, Matt Forte, is mired in a bit of a slump. His only game with over 70 yards was against hopeless Detroit and his season average is 3.4 yards per carry.

However, this game is probably going to be decided through the air. On paper it looks like the Bengals have a lot more receiving talent with media mogul Ochocinco, big play threat Henry, the veteran Coles and clutch Caldwell. With Palmer at the controls they are averaging more passing yards than the Bears then right? Well, not exactly. There is a reason Jay Cutler had years added to his contract aside from being the first franchise quarterback they have had since the wheel was invented. For the record the edge is 11 passing yards per game. Cutler has done it thanks to long passing plays to the rookie Knox while reigniting the career of former college teammate Bennett and keeping the Hester as a #1 receiver project alive.

It has been a sweet run for the Bengals, but I think last week’s loss to Houston exposed their pass defense a little bit. They allow the fifth most passing yards in the NFL per game (254.8). Making matters worse, without top sack threat Odom their secondary will be under fire for precious extra seconds. Maybe all they need to get straight is for me to start picking against them. I have reason to. Their home field hasn’t been very cozy with a 1-2 record. Chicago is also 1-2 on the road, but both losses were close. Speaking of close it seems crazy to go against the Bengals in a tight game considering their good fortune this season. I’m doing it anyway: Chicago 24, Cincinnati 21 (CHI +1/over 42.5)

Atlanta (4-1) @ Dallas (3-2): The Cowboys had a lot to think about on their bye week. At the top of the list is figuring out why rushing for an even 161 yards rushing per game has not translated into a better result in the wins column. Usually the best rushing teams are successful, but this season although 3 of the top 8 teams in yards per game are undefeated (Saints, Giants, Broncos) four teams are around .500 and the Titans are winless. The Falcons have been able to get by without a dominant running game. Even with Michael Turner at their disposal their average per rush (3.4) is near the bottom of the NFL. Part of the problem is not having his backup Jerious Norwood healthy. The Cowboys have had injury issues in their backfield as well, but with Barber, Jones and Choice at their disposal have been able to get enough out of whoever was available to be successful.

A stat jumping out at me is the Falcons allowing 4.7 yards per rush. They drafted Peria Jerry to help them up front, but he has already been lost for the season. The Cowboys would be best served going straight at this defense. We all know they can’t help themselves and will call plenty of passes. Romo has the ‘Boys #11 in passing offense at 268.2 yards per game, but has just 6 touchdowns. Roy Williams should be healthy off the bye week and Miles Austin is coming off a franchise record receiving performance. Atlanta cornerback Brian Williams has been lost for the season and their young secondary will be on the spot. This defense has gotten the job done all year though and even as I point out their weaknesses consider the most important statistic. That would be scoring defense where they rank fourth in the NFL (15.4).

There are enough advantages for the Cowboys to get them over the top here. The Falcons are coming off a hard fought win over the Bears. While that game was going on their next opponent sat at home watching television resting up and preparing. It is historically a huge advantage. With all other things being equal I favor home teams coming off a bye week. In this case I feel like the Cowboys can run a lot and pass a little. Ryan is an elite quarterback of the future, but he is facing a defense that seems to be rounding into form: Dallas 28, Atlanta 20 (DAL -4/over 47)

New Orleans (5-0) @ Miami (2-3): The Dolphins were gaining momentum into their bye week and are hoping to restart their surge. Some thought the Saints would come out flat following their bye week. Instead they rolled past the Giants 48-27. The perception might be that New Orleans is a far superior team, but I will quickly point to both teams facing the Bills and Jets in the past few weeks. Both routed Buffalo and downed New York. The margin of victory for the Saints was 51-17 combined compared to 69-37 for the ‘Fins. Another positive for Miami is a ridiculously balanced offense. I guess I’m putting a positive spin on things though. They are #1 in rushing at 177.0 yard per game and #29 in passing at 176.4. Henne’s performance on MNF two weeks ago was a promising look at the future. For the first time since Marino’s retirement they might actually have a franchise quarterback.

It could have been Brees if the team, then coached by Nick Saban, would have pursued him a little more vigorously. Things worked out better for Brees going to New Orleans because of the surrounding talent. He has been great for the city in the difficult post-Katrina climate off the field and on the field is piling up passing yards. This year he is not close to the pace of last year’s 5K season because the running game is fourth in the NFL with 157.8 yards per game. I think I prefer their balance when considering 280 passing yards mixed in.

Defensively it’s all about defending the Wildcat for New Orleans. Their defense enters the game ranked #5 in yards per game allowed (83.4). Throw it out the window because this offense changes the equation. Ricky Williams, who they once traded an entire draft for, has been taking snaps in the Ronnie Brown role which adds a level of intrigue. Miami can stop the run as well. They are third in both yards per game (76.4) and attempt (3.4). Where the rubber meets the road for the Dolphins is pass defense. Rookie Sean Smith has been solid, but when comparing these passing defenses there is one big difference. While both teams are in the bottom 5 when it comes to opposing completion percentage the Saints have a huge 11-3 edge in interceptions. Their quarterback is better and assuming both run defenses are capable of forcing their opponent into plenty of passing situations this is the difference maker for me in a close game: New Orleans 28, Miami 24 (MIA +7/over 47.5)

Arizona (3-2) @ NY Giants (5-1): Maybe the road woes are over for the Cardinals. It was one thing to win at Jacksonville in good weather. Last week they won at Seattle in dreary conditions and facing a hostile crowd. This is their biggest challenge though because even with an east coast win in their pocket cold weather has given them the most trouble. Going on the road again and the high pressure of Sunday Night Football adds even more pressure to the equation. On the plus side New York is also coming off a road game and it was ugly. New Orleans flat out tore up their defense, and didn’t punt until the second half. Even after the onslaught their secondary is still sitting at #1 in passing yards allowed (148.8). The Cards are on the other end of the spectrum (265.2) at #31. Eli Manning replaced Kurt Warner during the 2004 season and if there is any revenge factor for the old man it will be more difficult for him to have success. Beyond the personnel factor, one reason this was the only unsuccessful stop in his career was his inability to handle the windy stadium.

Last year’s meeting in the desert was an epic battle won by the Giants 37-29. The venue will change the complexion of this game entirely. When you look at Warner’s split stats, he is measurably inferior during windy, wet or cold conditions. If he gets pressured the turnovers start to mount. Unfortunately he has no running game to lean on. Hightower and first round pick Wells have combined for just 282 yards and a 3.28 average carry. The flip side of that is Arizona’s ability to stop the run themselves. They lead the NFL in yards per carry allowed (2.8) by half a yard and in yards per game (74.5) by nearly 15. For good measure teams have an NFL low 16 first downs rushing against them. The Giants would love nothing more than to impose their will by running the ball, but can they? Eventually I believe they can after winning the battle of field position. As it gets deeper into the night their advantage becomes more dramatic. Ultimately I can’t go against the G-Men in primetime on their field: NY Giants 30, Arizona 21 (NYG -7/over 46)

Philadelphia (3-2) @ Washington (2-4): It is usually a safe bet to put great rivalry games on MNF. Even better, last year the Eagles were within a whisker of the Super Bowl while the Giants just missed the playoffs at 8-8. Good game right? It has not turned out that way. The Eagles are coming off an embarrassing loss at Oakland. Their problems pale in comparison to the ‘Skins. D.C. is buzzing with talk about head coach Jim Zorn. Everyone from plumbers to bloggers to team legends has an opinion. While the team announced he is going to finish the season, clearly it will be as a lame duck. His marbles were placed in a jar when Sherm Lewis, recently pulled out of retirement, was handed play calling duties. How else is management supposed to react after losing 14-6, at home, to a team that had won twice in their past 30 games?

All of that being said the Eagles learned last week that rolling out the helmets on the road is no way to win a game over a bad team. Both pass defenses can make this game interesting, and are in the top 5 for yards allowed per game while not keeping opposing quarterbacks under 60%. The one disparity is interceptions, with Philly holding an 11-3 edge. The rushing defenses are pretty good too, ranking in the top 10 for yards per carry and allowing a combined 5 rushing touchdowns. This is looking like a typical black and blue NFC East defensive struggle. Philly learned last week that abandoning the run is dangerous. Washington has the front seven to terrorize McNabb if they become one dimensional. Meanwhile Campbell is on thin ice after it was announced their backup Collins was told to “be ready” in case he is called upon. Uh, is this not a professional football league? I thought the #2 player at every position prepared during the week to play. This franchise is struggling.

Clearly the Redskins have the ability to make this game interesting and even win it. Picking them to do it is another story. The Eagles are going to blitz a bunch and force turnovers to change field position. Westbrook is averages 104.6 total yards per game over the course of his career in this series and should be one of the difference makers. DeSean Jackson is usually good for at least one big play under the lights as well. I am probably going to regret not taking a home ‘dog on MNF, but here I go again: Philadelphia 21, Washington 17 (WAS +7/over 37)