NFL Predictions and Analysis - Week 6
by Gregory Cox
College Football Director
10/20/09


I am hard pressed to recall a week where I had fewer regrets. The process of predicting outcomes is far from an exact science so let's get that straight immediately. Luck is a huge factor and I recognize these are just educated guesses on my part. However, I had a legit shot at sweeping every straight up pick this past week. As it was I finished 10-4 (57-19 overall, 75%) which I will take. Believe me, upsets are going to happen and when they do even the best prognosticators are going to be feeling the pain. For now, let's take a quick peek back at my 4 misses shall we? The Jets and Ravens had the lead in the final minute. No shame there. The Bills were getting the ball in a dreary 3-3 snoozer when their punt returner fumbled away the game late. The Patriots lost in OT, the first such loss in Brady's career. Clearly some of my 10 were also "lucky" (Cowboys in OT, Panthers comeback) but you see my point. Plus, I've never been perfect in all my years of picking games and before I get hit by a truck I would sure like to.

Vegas is always tough on me. The most painful blow was having the Steelers covering the 10.5 with an under of 44 while leading the dreadful Lions 28-13. Then Daunte "freaking" Culpepper throws a touchdown pass to ruin both "bets". Or how about the Seahawks putting up 41 and the Jaguars contributing nada to help my over 44? Such is the reason I can't stomch betting myself. It's just fun to see if I can stay afloat. Against the spread I finished 7-7 so I'm still ahead there at 42-34. The over/under though, usually my strength, produced a 6-8 mark leaving me behind at 35-41. Stats are starting to come into play so let's see if I can improve on those numbers.

Houston (2-3) @ Cincinnati (4-1): I had no idea when I was suffering through the Bengals-Broncos game in week 1 it was a preview of the AFC Championship Game. Okay, maybe it's too soon for excited fans in either city to realistically dream of a Super Bowl, but you get my point. The deflection that nearly caused an announcer to die of a heart attack did not derail Cincinnati as it might have in season's past. I'll readily admit I was suprised to see them take it to the physical Ravens last week to continue their winning ways since Stokley's streak. Now the team has to figure out a way to beat teams it "should" and the Texans are a prime example. Houston always seems to be on the brink of a breakthrough only to finish out of the money every season. This is one of those games where they stand at a fork in the road. Losing puts them 2-4 with a realistic shot at being 3-6 into their bye week considering they face San Francisco next and visit Indianapolis in two weeks. I'll give them a win at Buffalo. However, the shot in the arm of a big road win leaves them feeling good about the 49ers and might lift them to 5-3 thinking upset when they go to the Colts.

Getting this victory is another story. It is easy to trace why this team is struggling. The Texans are #31 in yards per carry (3.0) because, well, their feature back is not physical. Steve Slaton had a fantastic change of pace back, but when he doesn't get the long run he is ineffective. He has yet to run for 100 yards this season and in 2008 every time he cracked the barrier he had a run of 34+ yards. Houston's offense has gotten by with a great passing game and will continue to do so until Matt Schaub inevitably gets hurt. In his past 4 starts Schaub is averaging a crisp 313 yards passing and the team has scored 27.0 points over that span. Unfortunately, the defense is still a liability. If only Slaton could run against his own guys. Their defensive line is littered with first round picks, but is dead last in yards per carry allowed (5.2) and rushing touchdowns (9). Ignoring their shutdown job on the Raiders they have given up 28.5 points per game. This is particularly bad news because the revitalized Cedric Benson is supremely confident after becoming the first player ever (okay, not really) to rush for over 100 yards on the Ravens. Incidentally he proved me 100% wrong in the process. Cincinnati is now in the top 10 for average per carry (4.4) and game (126.9). The Bengals need to be effective running the ball because their completion percentage (57.6) is low and the Texans are tough on opposing quarterbacks in that department (57.7).

Cincinnati will want to have their way running the ball rather than try their luck with a low percentage passing game. It seems likely the star receiver still named Johnson, as in Andre, will be in line to have a much better game against an average pass defense although it's safe to assume Schaub is going to be sacked a few times, unlike Palmer against a line with just 6 sacks on the season. Finally, the Bengals are returning home after playing three of four on the road. Will their fans recognize them? This is a first place team people! Nothing is going to surprise me in this game, but I finally concede they are going to keep finding a way. Ochocinco, with help from a sponsor, helped get this game sold out. Those watching in the stands and on television will not be disappointed: Cincinnati 31, Houston 23 (CIN -4.5/over 45)

Detroit (1-4) @ Green Bay (2-2): Is it fair to say the Lions played their best game in a long, long time last week? Sure, they lost 28-20 against the defending champion Steelers. Who would have guessed this hapless team would have the ball in Pittsburgh territory (as deep as the 21 before a trio of sacks in a row) in the final minutes with a chance to tie the game? No one, that's who. Rookie Matthew Stafford might not play again. That might not be such a bad thing. Culpepper had his best passing game since 2007. His only problem was the aforementioned sacks. Seven of them to be exact. Neither quarterback is safe in this game though. Thanks to this performance the Lions have the third most sacks allowed (17) but the Packers are first (20) and have only four games played. Their offensive line is a mess. Writers are speculating about possible trades to get them straightened out. It hasn't stopped Aaron Rodgers from leading the #6 passing attack at 274.5 yards per game and although they are towards the bottom in rushing yards per game (99.8) the average (4.2) is in the middle.

All told, Green Bay is better than their record indicates. The Bears have not lost since their rivals beat them in the opener. The Bengals (31-24 loss) are in first place and the Vikings (30-23 loss) are undefeated. Right now it's just a matter of getting to the easier portion of the schedule, which is now, and finding a way to win close games. This has been a troubling issue for Rodgers. He has followed Favre in most statistical categories, but can't seem to deliver the clutch drive at the end to win. It probably won't happen this week because the Pack should build a big lead. The Lions allow opposing quarterbacks to complete an NFL high 73.3% of their passes and give up the sixth most yards per game (244.6). If the protection falls apart he will dink and dunk them to death. Or the running game will get started. Detroit has given up the fourth highest average rush (4.9) although for some reason teams have not run on them much (23.0 per game, seventh lowest in NFL). On the probably not frozen tundra expect that to change. Even if Ryan Grant has faltered since fattening his wallet this should be his first trip past the century mark in 2009.

Having established that the bye week rested home team will be moving the ball and scoring points, what about the visitors? It doesn't look like their biggest offensive weapon, receiver Calvin Johnson, is going to play. The team would be stupid to put him on the field during an already lost season and risk a more serious injury. Their rush offense is towards the bottom of the NFL at just 3.7 yards per carry while the Packer defense is near the top (3.5). If those numbers hold, and I believe they will, someone better stop the fight early. When Detroit is unable to run the ball and has no #1 receiver at their disposal how can they keep up? In two road games they have allowed 45 and 48 points. The number is going to be lower this time because, unlike those games, their opponent will not be threatened by an offense scoring 24 and 27 respectively: Green Bay 34, Detroit 13 (GB -14/under 49)

St. Louis (0-5) @ Jacksonville (2-3): There is already talk of the Rams joining last year's Lions as the only teams ever to go 0-16. It's way too soon for that chatter. Right now both of these teams would just like to erase the memory of routs. The Rams were smacked 38-10 by the Vikings on their home turf while the Jags took a beating in the Pacific Northwest to the tune of 41-0 courtesy of the Seahawks. Aside from Jacksonville enjoying a return home, they also have the benefit of what I like to call "hope". St. Louis knows their season is over. The Jags, who are off next week, face two more 0-5 teams (at Tennessee, vs. Kansas City) after the break. They can realistically dream of being 5-3 at midseason and right in the thick of the wild card race.

The ability to run the ball is going to be imperative for the Rams as they try to stay close, but the Jaguars would love to get MJD back in high gear. He is a totally different back than Steven Jackson, obviously yet can be just as effective in the box score. The early returns are pretty similar on both offense and defense for these teams running the ball. Jacksonville's offense holds a slight edge in average rush (4.6 to 4.4) and their defense is also slightly better (3.8 to 4.0). The "hope" factor is likely to push the advantage in favor of the home team though.

In the passing game, neither team has managed to crack 60% passing on the season. This week's opposing defenses should provide the cure for that as both are in the bottom five when it comes to completion percentage allowed. St. Louis is bad (65.8%) but Jacksonville (69.9%) is worse and has also given up the fourth most touchdown passes (11). However, I don't expect Kyle Boller on the road to take advantage of this. David Garrard on the other side is going to have a nice outing. Until the Rams prove they can score (6.8 average) or stop anyone (36.3 average last three weeks) it's tough to pick them to do anything even if some of these numbers indicate they could keep it close: Jacksonville 30, St. Louis 10 (JAX -9.5/under 43)

Baltimore (3-2) @ Minnesota (5-0): The Ravens are probably glad this is their last game in the month of October. After going 3-0 in September they are in danger of finishing 0-3 his month heading into their bye week. Two close losses were the product of the offense being less potent and the opponent being more capable. After averaging 34.3 points while sweeping away Kansas City, San Diego and Cleveland the Ravens have posted a total of 35 points while losing their last two games to New England and Cincinnati. It's not going to be easy in their first ever visit to the Metrodome, and the first time this franchise has ever been to Minnesota. I'm going to call out the mismatch right off the top. Rookie Michael Oher is going to be a great pro, but forced into anchoring Baltimore's offensive line with Jared Gaither out will put the visitors at an extreme disadvantage. It is nice to have one player who is very familiar with these surroundings, ex-Viking star Matt Birk, starting at center. He will do his best to manage the line around him and tutor his teammates on dealing with the crowd noise. In the final analysis, these guys just aren't used to playing indoors very much and when they do the results are not good.

Defensively Baltimore is also weakened by the venue. I always downgrade physical defenses when the game is played indoors. There are fewer opportunities for defenders to deliver game changing hits and more often speedy offensive players run by them. Back to the offense, the Ravens have been able to get it done running the ball with a solid 4.9 average per carry. However, with a weakened line and going up against the "Williams Wall" they are not going to dominate. Their best chance of moving the sticks is on the arm of Joe Flacco if he can stay upright against a defense leading the NFL with 18 sacks, and some big runs from either Ray Rice or Willis McGahee. When the Vikings have the ball, they have to be feeling good about Cincinnati's Cedric Benson having some rushing success against them last week. He is not exactly on the same level as Adrian Peterson. If Benson can break through against a defense now allowing a paltry 3.0 yards per carry certainly AD can find a few holes.

They key every week for the Minnesota offense is Brett Favre not imploding. Having him at quarterback is a bit like holding something valuable in a wet paper bag over an open man hole. One false move and your stuff is down the drain. For now he has the passing offense humming to the tune of 69% completions, third best in the NFL behind recent ring bearers known as Peyton and Big Ben. Only three teams have fewer interceptions than the Vikes (2) and he has zero fumbles period. You can bet the Ravens will change that this weekend. Ray Lewis might be old, but he's not as old as Favre. He is going to make it his personal mission to make Favre wish he was back in Wrangler jeans shooting a commercial. Any way I cut this up it's a fight. The odds are with the home team though, and when in doubt that's the way I lean. Adrian Peterson finds his yards. Flacco makes some plays to keep it close, but without a running game is forced into too many bad throws: Minnesota 24, Baltimore 20 (MIN -3/under 46)

NY Giants (5-0) @ New Orleans (4-0): I really dislike how the NFL deals with bye weeks and this is a perfect example. The Saints have been sitting at home for two weeks getting ready to play this game. Some moronic bloggers might joke that the Giants had their bye in the form of pounding the Raiders, but they still suited up so it's not the same. It's impossible to measure the impact and if New York loses no one is going to cite this as a reason I assure you. An argument can be made that they are on a roll while New Orleans might be shaking off some rust. I don't buy that. Either way this in the hand the Giants are dealt and truth be told nothing scares them when it comes to playing on the road. Their tune might change is Eli Manning, who was able to leave last week's rout early, is not healthy enough to be effective. Nothing will keep him out of his first trip to the Superdome where his father once played. Emotion and adrenaline might be enough to compensate.

Nothing is physically bothering Drew Brees, but he has failed to help his FFL owners in his past two starts with a total of 362 passing yards and no touchdowns. The Saints won both games of course, and have been relying on an unusually effective running game. This chair I'm sitting in is rather stable which is a good thing. Otherwise I might be on the floor after realizing they are #2 in the NFL with 166.3 rushing yards per game. Even if their backs are always nicked up, the trio of Bell, Thomas and Bush has gotten it done with the league's third best average rush (5.0). As dangerous as New York's defense is on paper, their run defense allows a healthy 4.8 yards per carry. Long runs impact that average because opponents run on them just 22.0 times per game, third fewest in the NFL. New Orleans is going to come out them on the ground more than that I assure you. New York's front seven is talented, but has not yet reached their potential playing together.

Remember me saying New York's opponents don't run on them much? Well, they also face the fewest passes per game (25.2) as well. Anyone familiar with basic math can figure out their offense keeps the opposing team off the field. Teams have run just 50 plays per game against them, by far the lowest in the NFL. Because quarterbacks throw so few passes, none have gotten into much of a rhythm. The result is the lowest completion percentage allowed (52.4) and NFL best 104.8 yards per game allowed. They lead the league by 61 yards in that department. Brees is going to put a dent in those shiny numbers. Meanwhile, the New Orleans defense is #2 in completion percentage allowed (53.9) with a league leading 10 picks. If Manning's bum wheel causes him to be errant it will result in a turnover. The Saints also are effective stopping the run, allowing 3.7 yards per carry. The hype is probably warranted, but with Eli not quite himself and Shockey ready to exact revenge (I'm kidding - I think) this isn't a great situation for the visitors. They will show better if given another shot in the playoffs: New Orleans 28, NY Giants 20 (NO -3/over 47.5)

Cleveland (1-4) @ Pittsburgh (3-2): The Browns are more interesting off the field than on it these days. Wide receiver Braylon Edwards was traded and rumors are swirling about current backup quarterback Brady Quinn following him out the door. He can't beat out a guy who just went 2/17 so I can only imagine how interesting those phone calls must be. The man known by his coach as "DA" will continue to start, but with a rookie (Massaquoi) and journeyman (Furrey) at receiver how effective can they be? The only good news is that the current version of the Steel Curtain will be without defensive end Aaron Smith who is out for the season. It might mean an extra instant for Anderson to look down the field and realize stud safety Troy Polamalu is back from injury before throwing another incompletion instead of getting sacked. I'm always looking for the positives.

When perusing the stats for these teams I blinked when I came across passing offense. Pittsburgh leads the NFL in completion percentage (74.0%). Roethlisberger has become increasingly important to the Steelers, who no longer possess a dominant running game. Limas Sweed might be a bust, and Hines Ward is towards the end of his career, but here comes rookie Mike Wallace to fill in the gaps. Along with Santonio Holmes and reliable tight end Heath Miller the offense has several threats in the passing game. A bright spot for Cleveland is their defense holding opposing quarterbacks to a low completion percentage (57.3) but the equation changes when faced with this much talent. Aside from that, Rashard Mendenhall seems to be reviving the running game and the Browns give up 5.1 yards per carry and an NFL high 170.4 yards per game. There is really no reason to believe this will go any differently than the past 11 in the series won by the Steelers. They will beat them every which way on offense and do the same on defense: Pittsburgh 31, Cleveland 3 (PIT -13.5/under 38)

Carolina (1-3) @ Tampa Bay (0-5): I'm grateful ex-Bucs coach Jon Gruden will not be announcing the game. It would be tough to listen to him describing (yet again) how the Panthers ran over his team on Monday Night Football. If Carolina watched tape of the game from last December they might not recognize the guys wearing their own uniforms. This team has not resembled the 12-4 NFC South division champions from 2008 whatsoever. Last week's comeback against Washington kept them on life support and if they can leave Florida with a victory their season outlook could be changing. Next week the Bills visit them and reaching 3-3 might change the focus from John Fox getting fired to aiming for a wild card berth. On the other side Tampa Bay is just trying to avoid going 0-16. I know I said above it is too soon for such talk where the Rams are concerned, but taking a look ahead for the Bucs it is looking bleak. The three teams with a losing record they face are these Panthers, the defending AFC East champion Dolphins and a Seahawks team that dominates at home. Coming into RJ? Three teams with a winning record (Saints, Jets, Falcons) and the Packers. It's safe to say this team will be drafting in the top 5.

One thing Tampa Bay does have going for it is the encouraging play of second year quarterback Josh Johnson. In roughly half the game play of his peers Johnson still ranks fourth in rushing yards (96) at the position. He threw up 50 passes last week at Philadelphia against a defense known for ruining quarterbacks and while he didn't light up the stat sheet I've seen much worse in that situation. I'm already wondering if this turns into a situation similar to Cleveland where the team thinks they have two quality quarterbacks (rookie Josh Freeman being the other) and ultimately doesn't have one. He will have a chance to shine this week. The Panthers allow quarterbacks to complete 68.8% of their passes and are tied for the NFL low with 2 interceptions. Then again Tampa Bay's pass defense has been torched for 12 touchdown passes so Jake Delhomme's sagging career might be revived for one week as well.

The bigger key is which team is up to stopping the run. Both are in the bottom 5 for rushing yards allowed per game. Carolina's average rush allowed (5.0) is a little higher than Tampa Bay (4.7). Thus far neither rushing offense has done much. While the Panthers boast more talent in their backfield the average rush edge goes to the Bucs 4.2 to 3.8. Because the numbers are fairly close I'm looking for a reason to make this the first win for Tampa Bay, but home field is not enough. This is one of those picks I tend to regret as soon as I type in the score. However, I feel like the Panthers showed some fight in their comeback and will ride the backfield of Stewart and Williams to a road win: Carolina 19, Tampa Bay 17 (TB +3.5/under 39.5)

Kansas City (0-5) @ Washington (2-3): Unless you never watch ESPN by now you know this is the sixth consecutive winless team the Redskins have faced. Of course, it is a bit of a farced considering the Giants were 0-0. The point is that for this team to have a losing record against such pitiful competition speaks volumes about how badly they have underachieved. Their 2-0 home record has come at the expense of two teams (St. Louis, Tampa Bay) who are now a combined 0-10. Washington won by a combined score of 25-20. All of their games this season have been close and with a few more positive plays the 'Skins would be 4-1. The Chiefs are probably a little better than their record as well, having lost on a late touchdown to Oakland 13-10 and last week to Dallas in overtime.

The statistic jumping off the page is pass defense. Washington has allowed just 171.2 passing yards per game, third best in the NFL. Kansas City has given up the fourth most (270.0) and the fifth most touchdown passes (10) although their completion percentage allowed (56.1) is the fourth lowest in the NFL. If Campbell can be accurate with the football (the Chiefs have only 2 interceptions) he should be able to drive his team down the field through the air. Washington's running game has a slight edge on paper looking at both sides of the ball over Kansas City. Each team will be without their starting left tackle. Campbell is the more experienced quarterback and should be able to adapt with his blind side a little more vulnerable. Cassel on the other hand has taken 14 sacks in his 4 games since missing the opener. Every game is a struggle for the Redskins. They slug their way out of this wet (literally, there's a 50% chance of rain) paper bag though and "save" Jim Zorn's job for another week: Washington 21, Kansas City 17 (KC +6.5/over 37)

Philadelphia (3-1) @ Oakland (1-4): Can it get any worse for the Raiders? Their defense will not know where to start when it comes to covering offensive players the Eagles throw at them. DeSean Jackson, who played his college ball at nearby California, returns to make them regret not drafting them. Truly they never had a chance, but I'll bet Al Davis wishes he hadn't dealt a second round pick prior to the draft for DeAngelo Hall and instead took the local star. Right now the Raiders need someone to catch passes, almost as bad as they need someone to throw a decent ball. JaMarcus Russell is not interested in playing football. He enjoys eating and collecting his money. The quarterback position in unlike any other spot on the field. It requires a lot of work in the film room and based on his play on the field Russell is not putting that time in. Clearly his leadership skills are lacking as well. If he wants a role model all he has to do is look on the opposite sideline.

Last Thanksgiving I defended "poor" Donovan McNabb in a radio interview, just before I said he would lead the then struggling Eagles past a hot Cardinals team. It's criminal how little respect he gets for taking his team into the final four on six different occasions. Injuries have slowed him down, but when you can put your team on the brink of the Super Bowl 60% of the time you're doing something right. He asked for offensive help in the draft and the team got it for him. Jeremy Maclin has a dozen catches and solid average (15.6 yards) with a couple touchdowns. LeSean McCoy leads the team in rushing yards, albeit with a modest 162 yards. The Michael Vick signing was probably a good thing in retrospect to deflect attention from the fact that this team is loaded with offensive talent without him. Vick, who showed his true scum self by refusing this week to visit the dogs he formerly tortured, has been an absolute afterthought with 1 completed pass and 17 yards rushing.

There is little reason to pile on the Raiders at this point. They have the worst passing offense in the NFL by 32.2 yards per game, and a league worst 1 passing touchdown. Since opponents know they are unable to pass, the rushing offense averages just 3.3 yards per carry. The Eagles can stop the run and pass equally well. More importantly their game plan is going to make it look easy on both sides of the ball. Typically Oakland is game at home, but if Denver can come into the Black Hole and rout them 23-3 I see no reason the Iggles can't do pretty much the same: Philadelphia 31, Oakland 7 (PHI -14.5/under 41)

Arizona (2-2) @ Seattle (2-3): I have seen this called an "elimination" game in the NFC West. It's way too early for that considering the division leading 49ers are only 3-2. Still, this is an important game between the defending champion Cards and the formerly dominant Seahawks. Seattle gained a considerable amount of swagger last week by pummeling Jacksonville 41-0. It was one thing to open their home schedule shutting out St. Louis 28-0. This was taking it to another level. I thought "Housh" and Burleson would go big and the duo caught 11 passes for 175 yards and 4 touchdowns. The backfield rotation of new (Forsett) old (James) and used (Jones) totaled 34 carries for 123 yards. Confidence is one thing, repeating the performance against a totally different opponent is another.

The Cards have some of the strangest stats in the NFL. Their rushing offense is pitiful at 3.1 yards per carry and 56.5 yards per game despite drafting Ohio State's Beanie Wells in the first round. Stopping the run is another story. They lead the NFL in yards per game allowed (71.0) and are second in average per carry (2.9). The situation is nearly identical when it comes to passing the football. On offense they rank third in yards per game (298.5) and on defense sit dead last (303.0). I guess when you break it down, they wish their quarterback Kurt Warner was back in the Arena Football League where it is all passing all the time. Seattle will let Warner complete his passes, but he's not going to put up huge fantasy numbers like his last trip here (395 yards). Their run defense is soft enough to help the Cards aim for some rare balance. I don't see the champs getting wiped out here, but they are a poor road team and the 'Hawks have quite a bit of magic in their stadium: Seattle 28, Arizona 23 (SEA -3/over 46.5)

Tennessee (0-5) @ New England (3-2): Are the Patriots really any good? They were supposed to be "back" this season with Tom Brady returning at quarterback. Instead their scoring offense is #18 in the NFL at 20.8 points per game and Brady is on pace for 19 touchdown passes. The last season he was healthy he put up the NFL record of 50. Their running game has regressed badly compared to 2008. When losing free agent pickup Fred Taylor, who is 33, hurts your offensive game plan things are bad. Usually this offense can find mismatches at will, making even average players look great. This season it has been a struggle. Speaking of a struggle, I give you last year's 13-3 Titans still looking for a win. Their problems are a little more predictable. In the NFL if you are not improving you are getting worse. They gave quarterback Kerry Collins another shot, but without the dominant running game or stout defense it has not worked out.

The focal point of their failure is pass defense. Pro Bowl talent has not been enough to prevent them from giving up 287.6 yards per game and 13 touchdown passes, both second most in the NFL. I think Randy Moss is dreaming up a touchdown dance. It is worth noting that starting corners Harper and Finnegan are out. Because teams have passed on them at will, and scored so much, their own mediocre offense has been exposed. Last year it might have been enough to just score 17 points. Throwing out a meaningless season finale, and including their playoff loss the 2008 version of this team allowed more than 17 points twice in 16 games. Twice! It sure looks now like the season opener (13-10 loss at Pittsburgh) was a mirage. Since then they have allowed 34, 24, 37 and 31 points. I'll do the math. That's 31.5 points per game. I'm not sure how any team can lead the NFL in yards per carry allowed (2.8) and rank second on the offensive side (5.3) while getting beaten so soundly. It's a mystery there is no point in solving. Wins and losses tell the story.

Clearly Brady is lined up to have a big game. The key for him will be adjusting to the loss of left tackle Matt Light. Come to think of it will any team have their starting tackle this week? At any rate, if he is still nervous about his weakened knee it might be exasperated by the lingering doubt of Kyle Vanden Bosch ringing up his first sack(s) of the season. The Patriot defense is definitely sagging, and they are likely to give up some rushing yards in this game to keep it close for the visitors. However, whenever Brady needs a touchdown he can just deliver it down the field to Moss or over the middle to Welker: New England 31, Tennessee 17 (NE -9/over 40.5)

Buffalo (1-4) @ NY Jets (3-2): Is there any question New York leads the NFL in head coach trash talk? The problem lately has been backing it up. After a hot start the J-E-T-S have lost their past two games, on the road at New Orleans and Miami. Perhaps leaving Super Bowl cities and returning to Jersey will reverse their fortunes. It should, considering the Bills are the opponent. Buffalo nearly stunned New England on opening night and would have if not for an untimely fumble, then creamed Tampa Bay. After that things have come apart. Last week's horrific 6-3 home loss to Cleveland sent their fans off the deep end. How often do you see 18 year old kids raising funds to put up a billboard ripping team management? Yeah, it's bad in Buffalo and there is no end in sight.

Looking at the game on paper, it's not too lopsided when it comes to running the ball. Both teams should be able to have some success. The Bills attack with the combination of Lynch and Jackson while the Jets go with Jones and Washington. New York's advantage comes from Buffalo being without pretty much every linebacker on their roster. Two young former Pac-10 quarterbacks are experiencing mixed results at the moment. Former Stanford quarterback Edwards has fallen out of favor a bit with QB ratings of 56.4, 51.0 and 52.1 over the past three weeks, all losses. He was supposed to take a big step forward this season with the addition of Terrell Owens. It has not happened and writers want the team to trade him. Mark Sanchez declared for the draft early out of USC and has already experienced some growing pains himself. He was the toast of Broadway during the 3-0 start, but as teams have gotten film on him he has started to struggle. Both teams are in the top 8 for completion percentage and yards per game allowed. So both guys could be up against it.

I'm looking for Buffalo to struggle on offense a bit more because their offensive line is so weak and Rex Ryan will be on them like white on rice. He is going to find a way to make them look bad, and given how they have looked lately it shouldn't be hard. Field position is going to be the biggest factor and I expect the team in green to be on the positive side of it all game: NY Jets 23, Buffalo 6 (NYJ -9.5/under 38)

Chicago (3-1) @ Atlanta (3-1): Even being traded will not keep Jay Cutler out of primetime this week. His former team Denver goes on MNF and he settles for SNF. I wonder if he is going to get into a shouting match with Matt Ryan. Nah, Ryan would probably just shrug off whatever the brash Cutler has to say. First let's try to figure out which quarterback will be in position to talk a little smack. I'm very concerned about the Falcons when it comes to run defense. A good team should not be allowing 4.9 yards per carry. As I expected, Matt Forte shook off a slow start and ran for 121 yards last week in Chicago's 48-24 rout of Detroit. The bad news is that over half of it (61 yards) came on one run. They need him to start chugging out 20+ carries and wearing down opposing defense. The same can be said for Michael Turner, even if he did score 3 touchdowns last week. He has a low average rush (3.7) and only one 100+ yard game.

If running the ball is not working for either team the passing game will be there. Both defenses give up 220+ yards per game. They key is making the big touchdown pass because neither has allowed many this season. Atlanta is third (3) and Chicago sixth (4) in that department. The Falcons are also superior in completion percentage allowed. If they can frustrate Cutler he is likely to start throwing interceptions. He is a hot and cold quarterback. I'm looking for a little cold against a team very happy to be at home for the first time in a month. The Falcons are also thrilled to be on SNF and will be up for this game. I pause knowing the Bears were off last week and didn't have to fly to California and back. They are fresher to be sure, but it won't factor in: Atlanta 24, Chicago 20 (ATL -3.5/under 46)

Denver (5-0) @ San Diego (2-2): Almost everyone expected this to be a meeting of the AFC West's two best teams, but no one thought the Broncos would be trying to put the Chargers into a hole similar to the one they stuck them with in 2008. Denver of course blew that lead, culminating with a 52-21 loss in the MNF season finale on this field. It seems like San Diego's strategy of setting up their team for a playoff run without thinking about what it takes to get there backfired a bit. Even if they kept their icon LT in the fold, their running game is averaging an NFL low 2.7 yards per carry. The fire might be in Tomlinson's belly to prove his critics wrong, but the spark is no longer in his legs. Their only other rushing option, franchise player Darren Sproles, has 90 yards on 37 carries. I don't need to tell you the average on that do I? Remember when 2008 third round pick Jacob Hester was supposed to be a factor? They desperately need someone to carry the rock.

The Broncos have someone in rookie Knowshon Moreno. As he has gotten healthy his production has edged up. Last week's 24 touches for 124 yards helped key a big win over New England. Defensively the revitalized Broncos somehow give up just 3.3 yards per carry, while the Chargers have been gashed (4.6). You have to love Rivers passing the ball, and he has the team trailing only Peyton's Colts with 311.3 yards per game. However, he has just 6 touchdown passes and the Broncos have allowed an NFL low 2. Denver's pass defense is fifth in yards per game allowed (171.8) and I didn't think much of that until they stopped Tom Brady and the Patriots last week. I'm still not sure how this defense has gone from swiss cheese in 2008 to marble in 2009, but until someone figures out a way to move the ball on them just call it Orange Crush II. I'll be honest I was intent on taking the Chargers to win this game. They appear to have more talent. They are due. They are rested off the bye week. Those factors aren't enough. Put me in a padded room after this pick because I'll be banging my head if it goes the other way: Denver 20, San Diego 16 (DEN +4/under 45)