NFL Predictions and Analysis - Week 5
by Gregory Cox
College Football Director
10/10/09

For most of the NFL the first quarter of the season is now over. Some teams are surprising in a good way (Bengals, Broncos, Saints, 49ers) while others are falling on their face (Titans, Panthers, Dolphins) despite coming off a division title. Whatever the case may be I finally have a nice sampling of game data to go on for future predictions. I did pretty well last week, especially straight up with a 12-2 mark (47-15 overall). My only misses were Denver beating Dallas (a pick I agonized over) and Jacksonville over Tennessee (a pick I have no regrets over making). Against the spread I started slow and finished very strong, finishing at 9-5 and staying on the positive side (35-27). The over/under continues to frustrate me although I held even at 7-7 last week which keeps me behind (29-33).

I’m going to talk a little about yards per play differential, which will start to influence my picks, and for good reason. After the 9 worst teams there is a significant jump (-0.9 to -0.4) so thus far clearly they are the bottom of the barrel. All of those teams are either winless or 1-3, and collectively have 2 wins against teams outside of this inept group. Conversely, the top 5 teams (also decisively separated from the next team at +1.4 to +0.9) are all undefeated save for the Eagles who lost to another team (Saints) in the group which does not count because with apologies to Gannon and McNabb someone had to win right? Time will tell if this helps my prognostications.

Cincinnati (3-1) @ Baltimore (3-1): Apparently appearing on “Hard Knocks” agrees with the Bengals. If they can somehow win this game it would leave them 3-0 on the road, which is pretty amazing consider the previous two seasons the “Bungles” were 3-13 when eating hotel food before games. As sweet as their start has been, does anyone think they are in the same class as the Ravens? Baltimore’s offense has ripped off 6.0 yards per play, fourth best in the NFL behind the Colts, Cowboys and Saints. Those teams have stars most football fans on a bar stool can name. Certainly Joe “Cool” Flacco, Willis McGahee and Derrick Mason are quality players, but none create a stir on Twitter like say Chad Ochocinco. Likewise Carson Palmer’s name is floated when top quarterbacks are discussed.

For as much name recognition and “Who Dey?” momentum this team has going, most of it will be out the window when Ray Lewis delivers his first hit. Even with early success on the road Cincinnati is in over their head in this environment. There is a glimmer of hope since Baltimore has uncharacteristically allowed 24+ points in three of four games. If they can get the game into the 20’s it could pave the way for another cardiac finish in their favor. I don’t think they can hold up their end though. Not without the offensive balance they have experienced thus far. Cedric Benson is about to be treated like it is 2007 against a defense allowing an NFL low 2.6 yards per carry. Palmer would love to relive 2007 because he led the Bengals to a 21-7 win here, completing 23/34 for 271 yards. Actually he is 3-2 on the road against the Ravens although last year’s season opener (9/24, 94 yards) was by far his worst showing. This outing falls somewhere in between: Baltimore 28, Cincinnati 17 (BAL -8.5/over 42)

Cleveland (0-4) @ Buffalo (1-3): Well I guess if the teams are going to play I have to predict an outcome. Truth is I would rather just skip this one. Braylon Edwards felt the same way apparently and now finds himself in the Big Apple (sort of) as a member of the Jets. Well, until the commish suspends him that is. Terrell Owens also might wish he was in another uniform although he seems intent on not letting his mouth speak was his heart has to be shouting. The Bills have no offensive line and if you have read my mock draft pieces in recent seasons you will know this has been a problem for a while. The bookend tackles are good at getting their own quarterback tackled. Trent Edwards has gone down 16 times, second most in the NFL. This sort of negates having receivers like T.O. and Lee Evans plus a backfield of Fred Jackson and Marshawn Lynch.

There is good news. Remember the yards per play differential? They are one of two teams (Tennessee is the other) with a losing record despite not appearing in the dreaded bottom 9 in that department. They are smack dab in the middle of the NFL at 17^th with a -0.1 differential. Cleveland? Yeah, they are tied with Detroit for an NFL worst -1.6. Things are so bad for them their defensive coordinator is mouthing off about last week’s game ending field goal by the Bengals against them not being good. This is a hysterical story because I was watching the CBS post-game as it unfolded and Shannon Sharpe declared the field goal no good from the studio. At the time it was blown off by the other guys when the official call came in. The only significant part is that it seems like Rob Ryan is trying to add a brash, vocal attitude similar to what his twin is doing, but he is not the head coach. Look, the Browns are lost. On the road the smallest misstep will crush them. For as much as the Bills have failed to impress this season this is a case of ugly and hideous. In two road games the team with orange helmets has failed to score a touchdown, albeit against two good defenses (Baltimore, Denver). It might get uglier than this: Buffalo 27, Cleveland 13 (BUF -6/under 41.5)

Washington (2-2) @ Carolina (0-3): The Redskins are their own worst enemy. There is no reason for a quality team to lose to Detroit and struggle with both St. Louis and Tampa Bay on their home field. This schedule screamed 3-1, but the offense has been unable to deliver. Their high point total is 17 points. The Panthers actually have a lower scoring average (12.3 to 14.0) but had an open week to figure out what ails them. Every armchair analyst would say quarterback Jake Delhomme is at fault. I am inclined to believe the schedule has a lot to do with why the Panthers are seeking their first win. Philadelphia, Atlanta and Dallas have rosters littered with talent. Comparing those three teams to the aforementioned opponents of the Redskins is not even close. So it makes comparing stats a little bit pointless.

I’m looking for both teams to have some success running the football. They will need to because both teams are in the top 6 for pass defense with fewer than 180 yards per game allowed. As much as Delhomme is under fire, Jason Campbell is close to playing out the string for his career in D.C. Perhaps his only motivation now is auditioning for a new team. I think he would look good in silver and black, but I digress. This game seems destined to be fairly low scoring and relatively close. The Redskins have pulled Sherman Lewis away from calling Bingo to spark their offense. Desperate much? Speaking of desperate, the Panthers can forget the season if they lose this game. There are no excuses for losing at home to a beatable opponent coming off a bye week: Carolina 23, Washington 16 (CAR -4/over 37.5)

Pittsburgh (2-2) @ Detroit (1-3): If you can believe this, ex-Steeler and current Lion linebacker Larry Foote is actually sounding off about some sort of revenge. I can’t be sure what he said because as soon as I heard he had spoken I started laughing so hard I passed out. When I woke up I thought it was a dream. The Steelers shook off whatever rust it was that had been holding their running game in check. Rashard Mendenhall was unleashed on the Chargers and now appears poised to be the feature back they expected when drafting him in the first round out of Illinois. I have come to respect the “button pushing” ability of head coach Mike Tomlin. This guy is as mentally capable as any coach in the NFL. He can keep his roster going in the right direction at all times.

Because it is rather obvious I am picking the Steelers, the question is really how much they will win by. It really hurts the Lions to lose rookie quarterback Matthew Stafford, who I do not expect to play injured against this punishing defense. He has played much better the past two weeks with 537 yards passing while completing 45/72 throws. Daunte Culpepper has been around the block in 98 career appearances, but only two of them have come against the Steelers. Both were losses, in 2006 as a member of the Dolphins and in 2001 with the Vikings. His next touchdown pass against this defense will be his first. Pittsburgh is due for a road win having lost heartbreakers at Chicago and Cincinnati. They will take the Ford Field crowd out of it early and grind this one out: Pittsburgh 26, Detroit 13 (PIT -10.5/under 44)

Dallas (2-2) @ Kansas City (0-4): Even with a decent #10 ranking in yards per play differential at +0.4 the Cowboys are not as good as their perception. Their supposedly solid defense is allowing 6.0 yards per play. That’s a big number considering a first down is 10 yards. Obviously huge gains account for a lot of that, but they need to figure out what is wrong in a hurry or this season will get away from them. Even the Chiefs have been gashed less (5.6) despite playing with young players trying to adjust to the 3-4 alignment. Offense is the big difference. Dallas can gain yards easily with the NFL’s second best rate of 6.4 yards per play while Kansas City is tied for the second lowest (4.2) average. Matt Cassel has thus far done little to justify his hefty contract. Last year he had games passing for 400, 415 and 345 yards for the Patriots. In three games spanning 89 pass attempts he has only 458 yards passing this season.

Still, even if this seems like a mismatch the Chiefs are poised to be a fly in the ointment of the Cowboys getting back into the NFC’s upper echelon. Arrowhead Stadium can be a great equalizer if the home team can stay in the hunt. With both teams in the bottom five for pass defense it looks like a distinct possibility. Dallas actually allows a higher average rush (4.7) than Kansas City (4.1) as well. The stumbling block for a potential shootout is that both offenses have struggled to put up points of late. The Cowboys have scored just 24 points on offense the past two games. The Chiefs have scored 40 points total in their last three. I can’t totally throw this out the window, or ignore the fact that offensive weapons are going to be out for the visiting team. There will be points, just not an all out onslaught. This time Romo delivers in the clutch: Dallas 28, Kansas City 24 (KC +8.5/over 42.5)

Oakland (1-3) @ NY Giants (4-0): The big story is obviously Eli Manning’s starting status. Really though, the only person it really matters to is Eli himself. Sibling rivalry certainly impacts his desire to get on the field. He is third on the active list among quarterbacks for active starts. Mr. Indecision is obviously first, and older brother Peyton is second. Already little brother is unable to match his bro in terms of starting every single game of his professional career, but conceivably he might have someday been able to best him in longevity. The truth is that not playing is a very, very easy decision. This is the Raiders. Their defense is not playing well. The Giants can run the ball and at this point in his career former #1 overall pick David Carr knows his role. Hand the ball off, don’t turn it over and let the defense win the game. Ironically this shapes up to be a pairing of two top pick busts assuming Manning, himself a top pick for the Chargers before a draft day trade, is in street clothes which as I write this appears slightly unlikely despite the risk of playing hurt.

Piling on JaMarcus Russell is sort of pointless so I will try to sum it up succinctly. He is unprepared and in his third season as a pro it is unacceptable. Analysts like to make excuses for quarterbacks by saying if their offensive line was protecting him, the running game kept the defense honest or his receivers were better then everything would be fine. Give me a break. Yes, Oakland is starting rookies outside, none of the offensive linemen are going to the Pro Bowl and the running backs are struggling. Has Russell done anything to make this situation better? The key to this game is rather simple. Their offensive line is banged up and the Giants have a defensive front capable of blowing up anything the Raiders try. Michael Bush getting in the lineup over Darren McFadden actually helps in this situation, but with so many injuries up front who is going to open holes for him? In a game like this New York wants to treat Oakland like a mud puddle. They want to walk over them without getting their pants dirty. This is the NFL so there is always a chance the visitors show up ready to shock the world. Based on last week in Houston this team is ready to go into full tailspin mode. It might not even matter if the Napa police get around to arresting Tom Cable. Other than the entertainment value of Al Davis appointing himself head coach. I would watch that: NY Giants 30, Oakland 6 (NYG -15.5/under 37.5)

Tampa Bay (0-4) @ Philadelphia (2-1): Somewhere Jon “Chucky” Gruden will be watching this game and remembering when he led his Bucs into this city and walked away champions of the NFC. His former team’s fortunes have clearly dimmed. The Eagles remain consistently in the hunt for a conference title. There is an obvious difference between them. One team has a long term quarterback and head coach combination. The other team struggled to find a quarterback to lead them several seasons in a row and as a result wound up firing their head coach. For the moment Tampa Bay is going with Josh at quarterback. No it is not the rookie first round pick Freeman. It is the Gruden draft pick Johnson. He threw a quick touchdown pass last week at Washington after being handed the ball at the 10 coming off a turnover. However, only 2 of his other 11 possessions resulted in the Bucs gaining more than 18 net yards. Their two field goal marches of 60 and 61 yards took 12 plays. In other words, this is not a potent offense.

On the other side the Eagles do have an attacking defense. Rest in peace Jim Johnson, but the players he coached up know how to get after a quarterback. They are especially tough on a young signal caller who is a bit indecisive. You can almost expect a few turnovers and possibly a defensive score. The Philly offense probably does not need the help. Their bye week allowed McNabb and Westbrook to heal up. Neither guy is a necessity in order to win this game with Kolb and McCoy around, but obviously they prefer to have their established stars. I expect offensive chemistry and egos to be a problem down the line against a better defense. In this game everyone will want to get their hands on the football and whoever does is going to do big things. One stat I have to share is third down conversions. Philadelphia’s defense allows their opponents to convert and NFL low 22% while Tampa Bay’s offense is the NFL’s second worst, also at 22%. How are the Bucs going to sustain drives in this game? They will not, and it is going to get out of hand in a hurry: Philadelphia 34, Tampa Bay 10 (PHI -15/over 42)

Minnesota (4-0) @ St. Louis (0-4): Of the five teams sitting on perfect records the Vikings are by far the worst in yards per play differential. Their offense and defense are both in the bottom half of the NFL at 5 yards gained and allowed. The net zero puts them at a very average #17. Eventually this is going to catch up to them when they play better teams. Like, let’s say next week against Baltimore or the week after that at Pittsburgh. For now it is just worth noting. This is not a dominant, overwhelming team right now. They have gone from competitive to fans hoping for a Super Bowl based on the emotion of the Brett Favre addition and a court room ruling saving their “Williams Wall” from four game suspensions. Poor competition has also helped. The Browns and Lions are terrible. The 49ers and Packers are better, but both teams had losing records in 2008. Now they visit the Rams, another inept opponent. It will be their fourth straight game indoors by the way.

There was a time when domes were hard on Favre, but not now. There was also a time when St. Louis had a serious advantage with their “Greatest Show on Turf”. Those days are long gone, even if the team will be wearing those jerseys from 1999. For the record, now Faulk is talking about running the football for NFL Network, Holt (Jaguars) and Bruce (49ers) are padding their receiving stats at the end of their productive careers and Warner is quarterbacking the Cardinals. They are definitely pleased to be home considering that in 3 road games the team was shut out twice and scored 7 points total. Their only home game was a 36-17 loss to Green Bay and that has to be considered an offensive explosion. A lot of the talk has been about the Vikings suffering a letdown following their obviously high drama MNF win over those same Packers. If a little more travel was involved and a lot higher level of competition I might be more concerned. The game plan here is pretty straightforward. Adrian Peterson all day, and that is why they call him “AD”. Favre has been a good soldier not making the killer interception and assuming at age 40 his body holds up there is no reason to doubt his ability to get it done. The hard running of Steven Jackson could help the Rams maintain possession and keep it close. In the end the old man takes out his second ex-Cal quarterback in a row because Kyle Boller is expected to start: Minnesota 26, St. Louis 17 (STL +10.5/over 40.5)

Atlanta (2-1) @ San Francisco (3-1): When I think about these teams hooking up I immediately think about a decade ago in the playoffs at the Georgia Dome. Back then it was all about the “Dirty Bird” dance with star running back Jamal Anderson eventually leading the Falcons to the Super Bowl. Michael Turner does not have a fancy celebration dance because the NFL would garnish his wages if he did, but he managed to nearly lead the league in rushing yards last year. In that playoff game, the 49ers fell short in part because their standout running back Garrison Hearst was lost due to injury. This time around they will not need to adjust during the game because they know Frank Gore is out. The similarities end at the quarterback position because two experienced old men, Young and DeBerg, started that game. Shaun Hill is no spring chicken, but in terms of games started he is on par with young stud Matt Ryan. All they do is win games.

Their success is underscored by the fact that while neither team stands out in yards per play differential, both have a winning record. The Falcons have had to do it against two teams defending division titles, and a third having just finished 11-5. The 49ers swept through a weak NFC West and lost their showdown at Minnesota in a nightmare (for them) finish. This is my way of saying Atlanta’s 2-1 record is more impressive than San Francisco’s 3-1 record. They are rested off the bye week and should be prepared to defend a limited offensive attack. Rookie Glen Coffee is better than the miniscule 2.3 yard per rush he is averaging, but clearly the aggressive Falcon defense will force Hill to beat them. Fellow rookie Michael Crabtree is not going to be helpful this week although he did decide there are worse fates in this world than earning millions of dollars before actually doing anything on the field. Instead it will be up to revitalized tight end Vernon Davis. Again, the defense can focus on him and force someone else to make big catches. The Falcons face a stern test against a unit allowing just 284 yards per game, sixth lowest in the NFL. Remember though, it came against some bad teams. As much as Atlanta’s defense has been gashed (381.3 yards, third most in NFL) their strategy will turn that result around. I am looking for a tough, grind it out game. Which team wants it more? I like Ryan and Turner more than Hill and Coffee. In a game of limited scoring that is the difference: Atlanta 20, San Francisco 17 (ATL +2.5/under 41)

Houston (2-2) @ Arizona (1-2): Never mind the records. This looks like one of the more entertaining games to watch this week. After getting shut down in the opener by Rex Ryan’s Jet defense the Texans have scored 34, 24 and 29 points. The Cardinals have yet to open up on offense this season, but coming off the bye week should be ready to put some points on the board. The one problem both offenses have had is converting on third down. Arizona is #28 (27%) and Houston is #25 (29%) in that category. Usually the problem is predictable play calling or the absence of a punishing short yardage back. The Texans have a big play threat in Steve Slaton, but only 9 of his 59 runs have resulted in a first down. The Cardinals drafted Beanie Wells to balance their offense. He has only 16 carries, and combining his numbers with Hightower 8 of the tandem’s 48 rushes have moved the chains. To crystallize this thought, notoriously hard running Marion Barber of the Cowboys has 16 first down runs on just 43 carries all by himself.

With all of that being said, which team will get stuck in third down situations more? Both teams have top 10 passing offenses, but the Cards are the third worst passing defense in the NFL. The Texans have the fourth worst run defense and allow an NFL worst 5.5 yards per carry. Therefore the answer might be neither. Schaub should have a big day passing the football while the rookie Wells is in line for a breakout performance. I wouldn’t be too fooled by Houston shutting down Oakland’s running game last week. The Raider line is a scramble at the moment due to injuries. In addition to the straight runs Warner can use the thus far very effective screen passes to Hightower as well. Because both teams can flash brilliance at times and look horrible at others this is a tough outcome to predict. I anticipate a lot of scoring and big plays from two of the best receivers out there, Andre Johnson and Larry Fitzgerald. Either quarterback could blow it with a turnover. When in doubt I’ll take the home team most often and especially when on paper it seems like they will be able to run the ball: Arizona 35, Houston 28 (AZ -5/over 50)

New England (3-1) @ Denver (4-0): This game reminds me a lot of USC travelling to Washington earlier this year on the college level. Steve Sarkisian went from coordinating the Trojan offense to head coach of the Huskies and of course pulled off the big upset. In this game Josh McDaniels is faced with the same task of besting a championship winning former boss in a battle of wits. One of the biggest stories of this young season is the Broncos winning more games already than some expected them to win total. Their defense has somehow, under the direction of coordinator Mike Nolan, made one of the most dramatic turnarounds in NFL history. Last year they were unable to stop a soul. Now they rank second in yards per game (239.8). Denver not only leads the NFL in scoring defense (6.5) you could double that average and they would still be setting the pace.

Obviously the Patriot offense presents a much bigger challenge than anything the Ohio teams, Oakland or even Dallas offered. Fred Taylor is hurt (shocker) and that means New England will as usual shuffle up their backfield. Or they will just hope Tom Brady has shaken off the early season, post-surgery rust. Moss had his first touchdown reception last week and Welker is healthy. Just because McDaniels can outline for Nolan exactly how their offense will go about their business does not mean the players can execute. This is not going to be a Gruden mimicking Gannon in advance of Super Bowl XXXVII situation by any means. His insight only helps though. More importantly the Pats have regained a lot of confidence the past two weeks by dispatching two quality opponents at home. Now they take their act on the road for just the second time this season. The first was a dreary loss to the Jets and an ugly offensive showing. I’m not looking for much more offense in this one, just a different outcome. Do you think Brady is going to let Orton get the better of him in a game this important to the Patriots because of the McDaniels factor? I don’t: New England 20, Denver 16 (NE -3/under 41.5)

Jacksonville (2-2) @ Seattle (1-3): I would dub this the Disappointment Bowl. Neither team did anything in 2008, but because of past success and the return of Matt Hasselbeck the Seahawks had hopes of bouncing back. The Jaguars are stuck in a brutal division and can turn the disappointment into hope with a victory that could leave them alone in second place. Having already played every division opponent Jacksonville has already proven on the field they are second best in the AFC South by losing only to the Colts. Seattle just took their turn losing to Indy last week at the dome, but the 34-17 outcome does no justice to how lopsided the game was. Conversely, the Jags lost a tight one 14-12 there on opening day.

In terms of total yards Jacksonville has an edge on offense and Seattle has a bigger edge on the defensive side. However, the Jags have faced better opponents and tougher offenses overall. It seems like Garrard really turned a corner last week against the Titans with a great game passing the football, but in two road games this season he is just 32/58 for 336 yards combined without a touchdown or interception. Dating back to 2008 he has shown poorly in his last four road starts. Seattle is generally not a kind place for visitors. Even if the team is struggling, on their home field the ‘Hawks routed the Rams 28-0 and lost a tussle to the Bears 25-19 thanks in part to a pair of missed field goals. This has “take your pick” written all over it. Will Maurice Jones-Drew show up and run wild? He might, considering Seattle allows 5.1 yards per carry. Will Hasselbeck make a triumphant return? It looks like he will play and with both Burleson and Houshmandzadeh on pace for 1,000 yards receiving against a defense allowing an NFL high 282.2 passing yards per game it seems likely. I’m cautious of the visitors pulling something off, but whether it is Hasselbeck or Wallace at quarterback I don’t know how they can stop the home team from ripping off big chunks of yardage down the field so that’s the direction I am going in what amounts to my only surprise pick of the week: Seattle 30, Jacksonville 24 (SEA -1/over 44)

Indianapolis (4-0) @ Tennessee (0-4): When NBC secured this game for primetime it looked like a winner. Now they might be wishing the “flex” was already in play so they could broadcast the Patriots/Broncos game. The thing is, regardless of the records this is going to be a fight. These teams obviously know each other and are competitive division rivals. The last four meaningful games (throwing out two meaningless week 17 meetings) over the past three seasons have all been competitive and each team has won twice. Both of the Titan wins were at home. From their perspective, this might as well be a Super Bowl in October. If they lose it is really over. Where the Colts are concerned, they have an opportunity to ostensibly eliminate the defending division champion Titans. It doesn’t seem likely for Tennessee to catch Indy even if they are able to win this game, but falling behind 5 games plus a tiebreaker with 11 to play is a deficit even the Twins would have a tough time overcoming.

Other than being inspired by needing to win, and by all accounts still talented enough to pull it off can the Titans do this? My logical Vulcan side says there is very little chance. The Colts lead the NFL with an impressive 7.1 yards per offensive play, nearly a yard better than any other team. Their differential of +2.7 is 50% better than anyone else can boast. Sure, Tennessee is the only team with a positive differential (just barely, +0.3) that has not already won twice, but they are up against it here. Their pass defense has been torched. Peyton Manning makes more stars out of receivers than American Idol makes out of singers. He is on, as usual. There is a pride factor under the lights and when we last saw these Titans in primetime it was the NFL season opening event, a very tough 13-10 overtime loss at Pittsburgh. They are going to fight. Their hopes rest with their stingy third down defense (32%) against an offense very successful in those situations (49%). Getting, and keeping Peyton off the field is not necessarily a sure way to win though. Just ask Miami. I’m taking the odds in this one and if the home team rises up I will gladly tip my cap to them: Indianapolis 31, Tennessee 17 (IND -3.5/over 44)

NY Jets (3-1) @ Miami (1-3): This is going to be a better game than one might expect by looking at the records. It’s the Wildcat against Rex Ryan’s defense. For college football fans the quarterbacks will give this game a bit of a Rose Bowl flavor even if the game will be played in Orange Bowl territory. That’s because just a couple seasons ago Chad Henne’s Michigan Wolverines lost the battle for the roses against Mark Sanchez’s USC Trojans. This will be their first meeting as starters though because at that time Sanchez was backing up John David Booty. Speaking of waiting your turn to start, now this looks to be Henne’s team. Chad Pennington has two “Comeback Player of the Year” awards in his trophy case, but I will call it right now that he is done. All he needs to do is accept it and file the papers.

Henne’s first start was successful in most ways. He was accurate in limited throws (14/22) and the team won easily over Buffalo. Now about those 6 sacks, do you think the Jets might be licking their chops a bit? Part of it is a lack of mobility and some of it is adjusting to the pro game. Ryan is going to come after him. Well, not him personally because he’s kind of fat, slow and not on the roster. He’ll send his players. That’s what I mean. It is hard to know exactly how the “Wildcat” offense will come into play because although the teams faced each other twice last year the games were bookends to the season. In week 1 they had not yet gone, well, wild. In the finale played at the Meadowlands it was more about Pennington’s revenge and Favre blowing it. There is one person I know will be excited to see the offense used and that is the announcing team, notably Jon Gruden. Give it a rest already. We get it Chucky, you like the formation. I suggest a hostile takeover of a UFL team and convincing Tim Tebow he should play for the love of the game instead of taking money from the evil NFL. Yeah, I’m digressing because this is a tough game to gauge. The Dolphins can fire it up at home, especially on MNF. The Jets look like the better team and although their quarterback is younger they are more equipped to take advantage of an inexperienced starter. Third downs will be interesting. The Dolphins lead the NFL converting 54% while the Jets struggle (35%). Both defenses are solid when it comes to forcing the punter onto the field. Miami has really shut down the run, with the third lowest average rush allowed (2.9) in the NFL. Their pass defense though has been very suspect when it comes to yardage. Sanchez does have to be patient against a unit allowing quarterbacks to complete just 57.6% of their passes. After all of this I’m fighting a hunch that the ‘Fins find a way. I can’t pull the trigger though: NY Jets 20, Miami 17 (NYJ -2/over 36)