NFL Predictions and Analysis - Week 4
by Gregory Cox
College Football Director
10/4/09

For a change I'll be brief. It was another good week for me straight up (12-4) and I'm 35-13 overall. I beat the spread 9-7, staying just ahead for the season (26-22). However, I was again under water for the over/under at 7-9 and remain drowning overall (21-27).

Detroit (1-2) @ Chicago (2-1):I'm thrilled for the Lions. I really am. The jokes can end because let's face it St. Louis has lost 13 in a row and oh by the way Kansas City now has the same record as Detroit (1-14) since October 2008 right? In other words, they are still bad, but now just equally as bad as a few other teams. The Bears are only a game ahead in the NFC North standings, a fact that could change when this game ends. Make no mistake, Chicago is in it to win it this season. There have already been growing pains. Cutler had his interception issues in the opener. Hester continues to be a, let's say unorthodox leading receiver. Forte is for the moment suffering a sophomore slump with just 150 yards rushing and a horrific average (2.5). The defense though, has clicked right along even without emotional leader Brian Urlacher. It would be surprising to see them not harrass rookie Matthew Stafford, which is what the Redskins should have done last week.

The past five seasons one team has swept the series, with Detroit getting the better of Chicago twice in 2004 and 2007. NFC North action is traditionally full of surprising results, and ironically this one features two first round quarterbacks who played their college ball in the SEC. Neither team can run the ball so a lot of the pressure falls on them to deliver. I do expect both teams to be a little more successful running in this one due to the lack of resistance. An interesting twist is Chicago's defensive line being coached by Rod Marinelli who of course "led" Detroit to their 0-16 finish. His guys should be motivated to whip his former team. If they do, the Lions are going to struggle mightily on offense. I'm buying that. Assuming Cutler plays it cool (read: limit picks) I look for Stafford to implode while trying to play from behind: Chicago 30, Detroit 12 (CHI -9.5/over 40)

Cincinnati (2-1) @ Cleveland (0-3): The Bengals are a bad bounce away from possibly still being perfect. The Browns are as close to imperfect as can be. Hiring Eric Mangini at head coach and Rob Ryan at defensive coordinator is looking pretty questionable. It has to be a bit uncomfortable for these guys don't you think? Mangini was dumped by the Jets, who have hired Rob's twin brother Rex and are playing excellent football. I wonder if he has thought about pulling some sort of Disney movie switch to kickstart the Cleveland defense. Right now they are giving up a mind numbing 184.3 yards per game. Cedric Benson is feeling frisky for the visitors.

As for "Man-notsogenius" he has struggled with the quarterback decision. Quinn is a high draft pick. Anderson earned himself a nice contract. Neither of those decisions were made on his watch. Coming off the Favre debacle in New York I kind of feel bad for the guy. His back is against the wall so he made a move. It takes guts to start Anderson a week after he threw 3 interceptions. The switch is unlikely to spark a victory, but at least he is trying. On the other side of this Ohio rivalry Marvin Lewis is suddenly totally off the "hot seat" after a sweet comeback win over defending champion Pittsburgh. They are allowing over 100 fewer yards rushing per game than Cleveland. The offense has done just enough to get by and given the opposition here should flex a little muscle. Carson Palmer misses "Housh" but he has developed a chemistry with Caldwell, and savvy veteran Coles is getting there. Ochocinco's bite thus far matches his bark, and who knows what he will do in the "Dawg Pound" this week. Keep watching, it will be the only entertaining part of this game if he scores: Cincinnati 31, Cleveland 13 (CLE -6/over 37.5)

Oakland (1-2) @ Houston (1-2): As the first quarter of the season comes to a close, the loser of this game will be in serious jeopardy of missing the playoffs yet again. By now everyone knows the story about the Raiders. They have stunk since losing Super Bowl XXXVII. The Texans have never had a winning record. Despite being in different divisions the series has a bit of history. The past three seasons Oakland has hosted Houston, and last year scored their first ever win over the Texans. The first meeting, and only one thus far in Texas, was 2004. Rich Gannon was unable to start due to injury and since that day the Raiders have been looking for a quarterback because he never played again. JaMarcus Russell was a #1 overall pick because the team selected him. Being chosen does not make him great and he has done nothing to earn his huge paycheck.

The Texans also have quarterback issues, but as long as Matt Schaub is healthy they feel good about their chances. He has thrown for 357 and 300 yards the past two games, a win at Tennessee and a home loss to Jacksonville. I wouldn't say it is all his fault though considering the defense is allowing rushing yards by the dozen. This is a big concern because just about the only thing the Raiders can do is run the ball. No one can figure out exactly what this team is going to do though. Hot and cold seems to be their pattern, and this is their first game outside the decidedly weak AFC West. The Texans will need to avoid Asomugha when passing the ball, but that's fine. I'm not very excited about this game can you tell? It is a difficult call. My decision is based upon which team shows up ready to play. Complicating matters is the fact that Oakland tends to rise up on the road. Reference last year when they effectively knocked Denver and Tampa Bay out of the playoffs. Home field and better quarterback wins out: Houston 23, Oakland 20 (OAK +9/over 42)

Seattle (1-2) @ Indianapolis (3-0): Is anyone really surprised to see the Colts off to another fast start? They just shake off any issues and win the game. Two division winners from 2008 are already in their wake. Remember when the Seahawks were winning the NFC West? It seems like a long time ago. I wondered during draft season if they might go after USC's Mark Sanchez. No one really listened to me, partially because before draft day most expected him to go in the middle of the first round and also because Hasselbeck is still around. Now I'm pretty sure they would trade Aaron Curry, who might be a fine linebacker, for the guy who went one pick later. That's because Hasselbeck may never fully recover. Wallace is an underrated replacement who never wows, but is very capable. He will not be mistaken for Peyton Manning though.

Speaking of the guy who pitches every product on the planet, he is pretty good huh? Indy's offense always seems on the brink of disaster, and Peyton keeps it rolling. Pierre Garcon is now a household name for crying out loud. Rookie Donald Brown is working his way into the feature back role, which has helped. The bigger issue is defensively because pass rushing stud Dwight Freeney is hurt. One player can definitely turn the tide, especially someone who can put pressure on the opposing quarterback consistently. There are also other key Colts out on defense. One problem for the visitors is that their offensive line is also walking wounded, which could snowball when a rousing dome crowd gets in their ear. I'm not seeing how the 'Hawks stay in this game for too long. They are never as good on the road anyway and with their confidence waning this might get ugly: Indianapolis 33, Seattle 10 (IND -10/under 44)

Tennessee (0-3) @ Jacksonville (1-2): I was laughed at a bit when I expressed doubts in the Titans heading into the season. If they are going to turn it around and prove me wrong it has to start right now. The same could have been said for the Jaguars last week and they delivered their first win. The pressure is still on them as well considering that Indianapolis is churning out wins as usual. Run defense has to be considered a huge factor here. Tennessee was supposed to struggle in that area when Albert Haynesworth cashed Daniel Snyder's check. Instead they leading the NFL in yards per rush allowed (2.2). Just when Maurice Jones-Drew was getting his groove on right? MJD will have to earn every yard for the Jags. Tennessee's passing defense can't be as bad as they have shown this season. They have too much talent, and Jacksonville lacks the talent to hurt them. Actually only three teams are giving up more yards through the air than the Titans. Leading the way would be these Jags at almost 282 per game.

Kerry Collins might be running out of steam as an NFL quarterback, but when his running backs are going well he can still pick his spots to deliver a big play. I definitely like their offense to put up some points. On the road the defense has actually been better in the scoring department. Tennessee has won four of the past five in the series and has more talent. They also have a better head coach. Sooner or later the odds kick in. They will not dominate, but I can't see them at 0-4. Their running game starts the party and the passing game finishes it: Tennessee 27, Jacksonville 22 (TEN -3/over 41)

NY Giants (3-0) @ Kansas City (0-3): Can there be a bigger mismatch? The Giants are rolling again. They just put together a complete performance last week at Tampa Bay, smoking the Bucs 24-0. Meanwhile the Chiefs were getting whitewashed at Philadelphia. The culture of losing has not changed since adding a new general manager, head coach and quarterback which are three of the most important positions a team has to fill. I have to wonder if behind closed doors some interesting conversations are taking place. Cassel has been slowed by injury, but when he has played let's just say the results are not inspiring comparisons to Len Dawson. At least he doesn't have to worry about Thigpen looking over his shoulder. He was traded to Miami. Will Croyle see more action if Cassel struggles though? He might, and the Giants know how to make life difficult for quarterbacks.

On offense New York is able to physically dominate an opponent. If you look too hard at the rushing average stats it probably appears Kansas City has a chance. The Giants allow a crazy high 6.1 yards per carry, considerably higher than the young defense on the other side (3.8). Forget those numbers. They mean nothing this early in the season. New York is going to gain the advantage on the lines early and never let it go. Their field general is poised and Eli's young receivers look better and better every week. The Chiefs are still fighting to find someone to catch a few footballs. It is going to be lopsided. Perhaps not as much as it could be: NY Giants 27, Kansas City 9 (NYG -8.5/under 42.5)

Baltimore (3-0) @ New England (2-1): Flipping channels I caught a glimpse of the replay from 2007 when the Ravens nearly ruined the NFL's only 16-0 regular season. On that day their offense was led by Kyle Boller who despite still having a job (and a starting one for the moment) is not close to as dangerous as Joe Flacco. For the Patriots Tom Brady had a normal knee and was putting up huge numbers on everyone. In other words, the passing time seems to have improved one team's offense and hurt the other. Finally some people are recognizing what I have known since late last season. Baltimore can score in bunches. The perception of them as a dominant defense with just enough offense to get by was hammered into people's brains, but this is not the Super Bowl winning team by a long shot. Another misconception might be that New England can still crush an opponent with their defense. The turnover of personnel has really taken a toll on them.

It is definitely going to be a battle of wits as the coordinators attempt to exploit weaknesses. There is a lot of pride on both rosters. New England wants to score on a top defense and Baltimore wants to stop a top offense. I will readily admit I was not high on the Ravens entering the season. Flacco appeared ready for a sophomore slump, but it has not happened. Instead he has done what great quarterbacks do which is make the players around him better. The average guy at the bar could not name a receiver other than Mason or their tight end Heap. Even the running backs, aside from Willis McGahee, are under the radar. Speaking of which, both teams like using a lot of running backs in different situations. I like Baltimore having more success here while New England does their thing passing the football. This seems like it should be a low scoring game, and it might. I'm expected more points for some reason. Brady gets his third "kid" in a row. He lost to rookie Mark Sanchez, then beat Matt Ryan last week. Can he sweep the 2008 first round quarterback class? I think so, but it's going to be a struggle: New England 26, Baltimore 23 (NE -1.5/over 44.5)

Tampa Bay (0-3) @ Washington (1-2): Let me get this out of the way immediately. If the Redskins lose this game you can pretty much kiss head coach Jim Zorn goodbye. Immediately following their embarrassing loss at Detroit I consoled a longtime Washington fan by suggesting Mike Shanahan as a potential replacement. He would be reunited with Clinton Portis and assuming that goes well I'm confident he would kick their offense into gear. Not soon after my conversation I saw Adam Schefter report that Daniel Snyder's plane was in Shanahan country, but he quickly asserted it was a coincidence. Sure, and I wear a watch to weigh down my arm. Whatever happens it will have to wait because the Redskins are the better team.

The Bucs were just humilated by the Giants on their home field and are already in desperation mode. Hence the switch to Josh Johnson at quarterback. I have a devoted fan of this team who will be thrilled to see what the kid can do. There is a problem though. Didn't they just make a serious move by trading up in the first round to draft Josh Freeman? Why then is this the Josh being named to start? It's simple really. He is more prepared and at least the team can find out how much talent the quarterback chosen by the previous regime has to offer. He might be auditioning for other teams to up his trade value. It's all the rage to ship out backup quarterbacks. Either way, Washington is not going to make the same mistake this week against a young signal caller. They have to pressure him early and often. The offense was weak with Leftwich and in the short term is going to take a step back. Washington's offense is not as strong without Portis, but Campbell can hold them together against a team that is clearly falling apart: Washington 26, Tampa Bay 10 (TB -7.5/under 37.5)

Buffalo (1-2) @ Miami (0-3): I promise I am not psychic. When I said "this might be it for Chad Pennington" and "the quarterback switch might happen before this game is over" in my preview last week it referred to his potential poor play, not a season (career?) ending injury. At any rate, he is out and the quarterback of the future Chad Henne is the quarterback of the now. They passed up the opportunity to draft Matt Ryan and eventually wound up with a solid left tackle in addition to Henne, but if the quarterback position fails the decision will be heavily criticized. This is an ideal situation for him to make his first start though. The Dolphins are a little weary after returning from California. They need a spark and he is eager to impress the home crowd against a beatable (whatever that means) division rival. How his presence impacts the percentage of plays run from the Wildcat remains to be seen.

The Bills get their own spark with the return of suspended running back Marshawn Lynch. Fred Jackson has been running hard, and well, in his absence. This gives them a second option to bolster their stagnant offense. Things are already turning a shade sour a month into the Terrell Owens era. He was supposed to make their passing attack viable. Instead he seems most determined when deflecting questions from the media. Both pass defenses have been torched. Miami has yet to intercept a pass. However, they do stuff the run and Buffalo does not. Edwards will be throwing a lot of passes and probably completing quite a few of them. However, the Dolphins will be successful with pretty much whatever they try. Their level of effort is there. The only thing missing is a victory. This week it comes together: Miami 24, Buffalo 17 (MIA +1/over 37)

NY Jets (3-0) @ New Orleans (3-0): It is probably premature to call this a Super Bowl preview, but it would be fun wouldn't it? In reality these are two teams off to hot starts and nothing more. Neither of them have proven consistent enough yet to be considered a serious contender. The Jets are basically living up to how good they appeared to be on paper before the season began. Flashy rookie quarterback Mark Sanchez would do exactly what he did at USC. He made the key throws, handed the ball off to capable running backs and watched the defense dominate. Said defense was, on paper, improved with Rex Ryan coming over from the Ravens and bringing some players with him. So here they are at 3-0 having just knocked off the teams with the NFL's best regular season record over the past two seasons respectively.

When it comes to the Saints we have seen this before. The offense is great. The defense, well, not so much. Drew Brees is a fantasy football machine. Their running backs are a little suspect due to injuries and erratic play, but does it matter? They are certain to be one-dimensional against New York. However, something seems to happen when a good defense hits the road in a dome. The rough and tumble, hard hitting play is gone and speed becomes more of a factor. I like the Saints to get into open spaces and make big plays down the field. When New York has the ball, they might struggle to run a little because so far New Orleans has gotten it done up front. Their pass defense is just as suspect as ever, but as hot as Sanchez is can he really win a shootout against Brees? I know he just beat Brady. That was a low scoring slugfest. I don't see him keeping up here and although the atmosphere will not rattle him much he is not going to take down another star: New Orleans 28, NY Jets 20 (NO -7/over 45)

Dallas (2-1) @ Denver (3-0): The running back position is the key to this game. The Cowboys might be down to Tashard Choice as they attempt to rush for about 10,000 yards this season. It is only the erractic play of Romo that has prevented their offense from dominating. On the other side rookie Knowshon Moreno is ready to explode. He has been getting healthy and each week gets more carries. When it comes to the resistance each young lead rusher will face, the numbers are surprising through three weeks. The Broncos couldn't stop a soul in 2008. Mike Nolan has them allowing just 3.3 yards per rush. The Cowboys give up 4.7 despite having a much hypsed defense. When it comes to passing defense, Denver is second only to the Giants with 136.3 yards per game allowed. They have 5 interceptions and are the only team yet to have allowed a touchdown pass. Whatever Nolan is doing, it is working and he is bailing out Josh McDaniels because the offense has been average.

Most of the talk surrounding this game is Denver facing their first "real" opponent. It is true that Oakland and the Ohio teams all struggled last year and two of the three are still looking lost. The Broncos will be using this as motivation. The Cowboys are in a different position. For one thing the spotlight is turned off so to speak after two home primetime spectacles in a row which focused more on their fancy new stadium. I see them actually playing better on the road with a little of the pressure off and attention diverted. Either way, one of the quarterbacks is going to blow it with an interception. Is it going to be Orton, who has yet to throw one since a spotty preseason, or Romo? I'm conflicted, mostly because I'm not sure the Cowboys can run effectively if they are without Barber and Jones. The odds catch up to the Broncos here. They are due to fall flat and the Cowboys can capitalize: Dallas 23, Denver 21 (DEN +3/over 42)

St. Louis (0-3) @ San Francisco (2-1): The 49ers are definitely bumming after falling victim to a Favre touchdown pass we will be subjected to seeing replayed over and over. Mike Singletary is going to have them focused and ready for the final leg of their early tour through the NFC West I assure you. The Rams are coming in with the momentum of a feather in a windstorm. Kyle Boller makes his return to the Bay Area. Just across the bridge he was good enough for the Cal Bears to warrant Baltimore selecting him in the first round. Obviously he flamed out, the team drafted Joe Flacco a few seasons later and following an injury to starter Marc Bulger here he is. Boller is sort of a space filler. His play is steady and unspectacular. San Francisco is going to make him look almost as bad as current Cal quarterback Kevin Riley. Their defense is playing with their head coach's intensity. All that is missing is the crazy eyes popping out of their helmet.

One thing working against the 49ers is doing without stud running back Frank Gore. Rookie Glen Coffee has filled in nicely, but probably can't deal with too many carries. Shaun Hill is a winning quarterback and might need to throw a few more passes than usual in Gore's absence. He is certain to hook up with dynamic rookie Michael Crabtree. Oh, sorry, I forgot he is still unsigned. As much as 49er fans might think the rook would light up the passing game, the truth is that history tells us first year receivers often struggle. San Francisco is doing fine without him. Although this is still a rivalry game, the Rams are helpless. They were swamped 28-0 at Seattle in the opener and I expect a similar result here: San Francisco 27, St. Louis 6 (SF -9.5/under 37)

San Diego (2-1) @ Pittsburgh (1-2): Quite frankly the Steelers could be 0-3 if a flipped coin had gone the other way. Instead of getting the ball first in OT against Tennessee, let's say they don't. Would their defense had held? Based on the past two weeks, I doubt it. Troy Polamalu is out with the Madden Curse and they have not been able to get it done in crunch time. Worse yet, their running game is a mess. When is the last time they could muster just 3.3 yards per carry and 81 per game? They miss the days of riding "The Bus" because these days it is more like driving a clunker they should have traded in. Actually, they tried. Rashard Mendenhall is, straight from the lips of head coach Mike Tomlin, not in the "dog house". Why then has last year's first round pick not been a bigger factor considering Willie Parker is fading fast? Their next pick from that draft, wide receiver Limas Sweed, is also having a tough time. He dropped a sure touchdown pass and will be seeing less of the field.

With all of this drama, a lot of the attention goes to the defending champions and rightfully so. The Chargers are more focused on revenge for their season ending on this field in the divisional round of the playoffs. After a quick start they never really put a serious scare into the Heinz Field crowd. In nearly 40 years worth of games they have never won in Pittsburgh during the regular season. That's a lot of history to overcome, but I can see it happening. Rivers is going to hurt them down the field. Right now the Chargers are the better team. It is merely a matter of execution. They are similarly inept running the football, and spare me the "Tomlinson is playing!" nonsense because he is nowhere close to an impact player. The enormous pressure of falling into a deep hole should propel the Steelers to, well, steal this one so I'm going with that: Pittsburgh 20, San Diego 17 (SD +7/under 43)

Green Bay (2-1) @ Minnesota (3-0): It is often said that two quarterbacks are facing off when of course they will never be on the field at the same time. Maybe Aaron Rodgers and Brett Favre can go through a gauntlet of games reminiscent of a "Bill & Ted's Excellent Adventure" montage before kickoff. No? We'll have to settle for ESPN acting as if this is the biggest game of the season when in reality it just an important early season barometer in the NFC North. Favre is going to lean on his team's true star Adrian Peterson. I've already heard AD saying he wants to win for the old man as he tries to earn a little revenge against his former team. The miraculous game winning touchdowns seems to have united the Vikings. On defense their "Williams wall" faught the law and won. As a result Rodgers will be counted on by his team a lot more than Favre will. I could see Rodgers passing for let's say 100 more yards than Favre and losing.

The emotion of this game is going to spill into the stands. The dome will be rocking. Thus far Rodgers has struggled a bit indoors. He needs to play at a high level to keep the visitors in the mix. This one could get out of hand early if the Vikings are able to build a lead and the Packers try too hard to come back. Even with teams unable to run on them and focused on the pass Minnesota is still allowing just 167.7 yards per game through the air. Their defense is the biggest factor in the game. Unless Favre starts making his typical crazy throws this should be a relatively easy win: Minnesota 23, Green Bay 16 (MIN -3.5/under