NFL Predictions and Analysis - Week 3
by Gregory Cox
College Football Director
9/26/09


Last Week - Straight Up - (23-9), Spread - 10-6 (17-15), Over/Under - 8-8 (14-18)


Oh those wacky NFL teams. Why don’t they just act like they are supposed to? If anyone read my first two score predictions last week I might be investigated for nefarious activity. I had the score spot on for the first two losers and missed by just one on both winners. Even if I was way off picking Green Bay to beat Cincinnati 31-12, I had their point total right as well, and Jacksonville’s. I was one point off on Philadelphia, San Francisco and Denver. In all I was within a point on 9/32 teams. It was just silly. You would think my results would be a little better overall although I’m not complaining.

Straight up I’ll take 11-5 (23-9 overall) although field goal troubles cost me my Pittsburgh pick (it was 19-13, they’d have been up 20-14 if normally reliable Reed makes both boots!) and Dallas was unable to hold on. That’s why I took the points. Speaking of which I rebounded against the spread at 10-6 (17-15) but with a flat 8-8 (14-18) on the over/under I’m still not beating Vegas. I just track this for fun and certainly do not recommend using my picks, no matter how informed, to gamble. Human beings are unpredictable by nature. Buy a lottery ticket if you must.

As for surprises I was a week late on both Houston and Tennessee. I thought the Texans would be good and the Titans would struggle this season. Had they played week one in Texas there is no question I pick Houston. Their opening performances swayed my opinion, but this result has tilted it back significantly. New York’s green team continued to be a thorn in New England’s side. It was a shrug of the shoulders result. I’ve been a Sanchez backer since the instant he declared for the draft. He is excelling much sooner than I anticipated though. The blue team, as I mentioned above, got a clutch finish. No sweat on my part having picked Dallas. Cincinnati stomping Green Bay was a stunner. Chad Clifton going down at left tackle hurt the Packers, but one player is not enough to hang this on. He doesn’t play defense or so the saying goes. My other miss was Chicago kicking past Chicago. Again, as outlined above missed kicks are hard to account for.

Cleveland (0-2) @ Baltimore (2-0): This is a really bad time for Brady Quinn to have a precarious hold on the starting quarterback job for the Browns. No one wants to visit this stadium needing to shine. His only saving grace is that the Ravens have weak starting cornerbacks. If his line protects him there might be some opportunity for hit some plays to Braylon Edwards. Making a case for them to do significant damage is another story. Jamal Lewis was once the hammer for the Ravens, but since joining the Browns he has been limited to 261 yards on 76 carries (3.43 average) and 2 touchdowns in four “revenge” games against his old team. Now it appears he will not even play meaning rookie James Davis might be given an opportunity. Good luck rook! Say hi to Ray Lewis who was last seen crushing Darren Sproles.

The only legitimate weapon on Cleveland at the moment is Joshua Cribbs, but as an offensive player he has just 42 yards on 11 touches with a fumble lost. He can turn a game around returning punts or kickoffs. It is not going to be enough here. That’s because the Ravens can score. This is the best kept secret in the NFL for some reason, probably due to a lack of “name” threats. Let’s not dig up the business of talking heads referring to their receivers as bums. However they do it, like when scoring 31 points on only 311 total yards last week, they do it. I wasn’t a big believer in Joe Flacco building on his winning rookie campaign. Thus far he is proving me wrong and putting up better numbers: Baltimore 26, Cleveland 8 (BAL -13.5/under 38.5)

Washington (1-1) @ Detroit (0-2): The Redskins have to be steaming mad. Every analyst trying to have their “I told you so!” moment is picking the Lions to snap a losing streak which has reached 19 games. It is almost scary to remember that on November 4, 2007 this team stood 6-2 and poised to make a genius out of then-quarterback Jon Kitna who famously predicted his team would go 10-6. Since that day’s 44-7 whipping of Denver this team has won only once, over similarly struggling Kansas City. Now they’re suddenly ready to knock off Washington? I mean, I get it on some level. Last year the ‘Skins lost at home to 0-4 St. Louis and this past week looked bad against the Rams again, failing to score a touchdown in a 9-7 win. There is also the matter of the 2008 meeting on this field. Detroit was very much in it, falling 25-17. More important than all of this is how intimidated Washington will be the moment they see the new “angrier” logo on the side of their helmets right? Ford Field is sure to be rocking with a non-capacity crowd as well. Maybe Kiss should show up to play Rock City and fire up the fans who do bother showing up.

I mention all of this because the Redskins are disrespected. They competed in a tight NFC East every week and fell short of last year’s playoffs due to consistency issues. Their talent level is higher than Detroit. Clinton Portis is on the injury report and might need to man up. This concerns me a bit. It would worry me a lot more if not for Jason Campbell completing 82% of his passes last time around for 328 yards. Santana Moss, who has been slumbering thus far in 2009, lit them up for 140 receiving yards and took a punt 80 yards for a touchdown. On the other side of things rookie Matthew Stafford, only two weeks into his career, is already dealing with people saying maybe they should have drafted Mark Sanchez. Hey guys, I told you that the day Sanchez shocked the world (and USC head coach Pete Carroll) by declaring for the NFL early. He is going to force some throws in a fairly close game. Campbell is fighting for his life and will perform like it: Washington 30, Detroit 20 (WAS -6/over 38.5)

Jacksonville (0-2) @ Houston (1-1): Being stuck in a division with the Colts during Peyton Manning’s prime has not been a lot of fun for these teams. Both have seemed to be on the verge of turning a corner only to find a brick wall waiting for them. The Jaguars are in a lot of trouble. Head coach Jack Del Rio is burning his bum at this point, and it will be scalded if he loses this game. Their quarterback did everything he could to improve in the offseason, but early on the results are not there. A slimmer, more agile Garrard has still taken 5 sacks and completed a mere 52% of his passes. They hung tough at Indianapolis in the opener, and last week had the game turned upside down on them when a blocked punt was returned for a touchdown by Arizona. Assuming their offensive line had done their job on the kick, it changes the final tally to 24-20 from 31-17 so the Cards were not as dominant as it may have seemed from scoreboard watching. The Texans found themselves in an unexpected shootout at Tennessee, and won it 34-31. Their concern has to be letting Chris Johnson pile up about 1,000 total yards. Fortunately for them Maurice Jones-Drew is banged up and Jacksonville lacks the personnel to duplicate the effort.

The passing game gets an emotional lift with rookies Mike Thomas and Jarrett Dillard, both Texas natives, trying to impress friends and family. We know how most first year receivers perform though and Jacksonville has been trying to get help at the position for a long, long time. Injuries have also hurt and now longtime Ram Torry Holt is their leader with 9 receptions and 112 yards in his first season with the team. Sadly, his prime is long gone and so are his days of making a killing for me in FFL. The guy who is doing that now is Andre Johnson. The Texans are hiding the best receiver in the NFL to never have made a playoff game. For their offense to really cook Steve Slaton needs to snap out of his sophomore slump. Early returns show this being a bad week to hope for it considering the (premature stat alert!) Jags allowing a stingy 3.2 yards per carry, but he makes his living on big plays. All it takes is one or two and the offense opens up. I believe they woke up last week and regained whatever confidence was lost in their embarrassing 24-7 home opening setback against the Jets who of course are led by a rookie quarterback. The Jaguars are ready to pack it in. I hate saying it since we are just in week 3. Hopefully they show up and fight for their season. For what it is worth the home team has won the past 4 games in the series and the Jags last won here in 2005. They have lost five of six road games to the Texans: Houston 30, Jacksonville 19 (HOU -3.5/over 47)

San Francisco (2-0) @ Minnesota (2-0): Is this the marquee game of the week? According to the records it is. Donovan McNabb declares this game is guaranteed to produce a 3-0 team. Speaking of quarterbacks, are these guys going to show up at the local watering hole, pull up a stool and drink a few beers with the locals afterwards or what? Brett Favre would get mugged by fans. Shaun Hill might be mistaken for one of his bodyguards if he was not so flabby. Don’t be fooled though. I like Hill on the field and as a leader of the 49ers. He is a proven winner thus far in the city by the Bay. Believe me it has been much appreciated in an area starving for sports victories. Even if their career stats are miles (literally) apart the goal will be the same here. Hand the ball off and rely on the defense to win the game.

Adrian Peterson is not human. We know this. Frank Gore has certainly been impressive one level below “All Day” in his young career. We could call him like “16 hours” maybe. He pretty much won the game against Seattle last week by himself with a pair of back breaking touchdown runs. The concern for San Francisco is that aside from those breakaway efforts he has 36 carries for 78 yards (2.17 average) on the season. Now he faces a stone wall run defense, and he is already nicked up with a sore ankle. The 49ers have some bragging rights over Peterson and are probably going to be the answer to a trivia question. When they first met up with him during his rookie season, a campaign ending with 1,341 rushing yards and a dozen touchdowns, he had an ugly stat line. How does 14 rushes for 3 yards strike you? The thing is, Minnesota won the game 27-7 so the strategy of locking him up cost them in the win column. This time, he is better and so is the surrounding talent. The venue has switched to the dome as well. Oddly enough, Hill replaced current ESPN analyst Trent Dilfer at quarterback in that game and was a sharp 22/27 passing with a touchdown. He will probably need to duplicate the effort to keep the 49ers in this game. Frankly, this is not the NFC West anymore. Don’t get me wrong. I love the effort of Mike Singletary’s team. They are going to make a serious run at their division title. Keep in mind that last year the Cardinals were 3-7 in the regular season when not playing the Rams, 49ers and Seahawks. I like the Viking defense quite a bit more than the 49ers in this setting. Favre is keeping his wild side under control. Did I mention it’s his home opener? I guess I should so I did. They win as comfortably as can be expected in the NFL: Minnesota 23, San Francisco 13 (MIN -7/under 40)

Atlanta (2-0) @ New England (1-1): I know this is a huge game between contenders, but can I digress at the start? Thank you. I really wish these teams both came out in their retro uniforms. Seeing the red helmets on the Falcons was awesome and “Flying Elvis” never goes out of style for the Patriots. Everyone seems convinced New England avoids losing consecutive games here because well, with the guy in the “hoodie” roaming the sideline they very rarely have. Trends have a place in predictions. Talent is more important. This brings me to Wes Welker possibly suiting up again. He is a unique offensive weapon. The rate at which he chews up little bits of yardage is invaluable. It was abundantly apparent last week against the Jets when Randy Moss was busy getting shut down. The allegedly poor running game which finished, uh, sixth in the NFL last year with 142.4 yards per game needs to get going. They utilize a variety of backs, mostly beyond the milk date expiration for the position. Naturally the real problem is the offensive line. It just didn’t matter when the defense kept giving the offense the ball and the receivers were dominating. Now their defense is in a bit of disarray and Tom Brady is having his every throw dissected by ESPN’s Ron Jaworski as if he is ogling a hot supermodel. Like say, Brady’s wife. There I go digressing again.

Where were we? Oh yeah, the Falcons. They are going to show up. This is a homecoming of sorts for former Boston College star Matt Ryan. He will be pumped. Thus far no signs of a sophomore slump with 68% of his passes completed for 5 touchdowns and 1 interception. Michael Turner might be the bigger concern for the Patriots. They must quietly wonder if trading Richard Seymour was prudent in the short term. Turner has slugged out 50 carries, but has a low average (3.4). For them to win this game he has to do better than that. Beating Miami and Carolina at home is one thing, New England on the road is quite another given their “backs against the wall” approach. Sometimes I talk myself out of a pick as I break the game down and it has almost happened again. The Falcons certainly have the potential to take this game out of Brady’s hands with power running and efficient passing. The banged up status of Welker and Moss is giving me a pit in my stomach as well. In a spot like this though, history tells me one of the teams is not good enough to go 0-3 and the other is not bad enough to be 1-2. Call it a hunch if you must: New England 20, Atlanta 17 (ATL +4.5/under 47)

Kansas City (0-2) @ Philadelphia (1-1): I hear a player with a name rhyming with “sick” is making his NFL debut in this game. Kind of ironic that a dog killer will be running the Wildcat offense don’t you think? Michael Vick takes a lot of focus in this game for obvious reasons, but other factors are far more important for the Eagles. Already several offensive starters are injured. McNabb is out. DeSean Jackson might be as well. Westbrook is, well, he’s always on the injury report so never mind. I am hammering the point that offensive chemistry will be tough to come by for them and egos might get in the way of a team effort. The opening 38-10 rout at Carolina seems like two months ago now doesn’t it? New Orleans put them very much back in their place. The defense is in fact considerably more vulnerable. Whether or not the Chiefs can do anything about it is quite a different story. Supposedly franchise quarterback Matt Cassel is already having trouble holding onto the starting job, partially due to a knee injury. He made the one big touchdown pass last week and it was almost enough to beat the rival Raiders until the defense choked. The player on the other end of that catch, Dwayne Bowe, is probably out. This is really bad news for a team lacking skill at the position already taking on a star studded secondary. Just as long as Sheldon Brown doesn’t come out in a Freddy Krueger mask they should be okay.

Maybe Larry Johnson, who went to Penn State, will be fired up to be back in the Keystone State! He did have 119 total yards last week against the Silver & Black, but no, he is not going to be a big factor. The Eagles are going to blitz the Chiefs until they force about 10 turnovers and then blitz a little more. Guys will seem like they are popping out of gopher holes in the turf by the end of this one. Philly knows how to expose weaknesses in an opponent and the Chiefs have a lot of them. Kansas City’s defense is on the rise, but the weight of being put on the field again and again will wear them out rather quickly. Those looking for a joyous Vick debut are not going to be disappointed because Andy Reid can carefully choose his spots to unleash (ironic word I know) his new threat. Before I put a score on this one I have to say I was surprised to hear Vick say he expected to be a starting quarterback immediately. This does not sound like a humble person grateful to be back in the league earning millions. I’m just saying: Philadelphia 34, Kansas City 10 (PHI -7.5/over 39.5)

Green Bay (1-1) @ St. Louis (0-2): Well I guess Packer fans can quit printing up Super Bowl tickets. They went from sleeper pick to their quarterback being put in a sleeper hold by Cincinnati’s Antwan Odom. Playing musical chairs on the offensive line this early in the season is never a promising sign, but injuries have forced Green Bay into that position. It has been 11 straight games without a sack for last season’s #2 overall pick Chris Long and the Rams would love for him to have a breakout performance here. The opportunity certainly looks like it will be there. Maybe watching former Los Angeles Ram great Deacon Jones have his #75, the same number his father Howie wore with the Los Angeles Raiders by the way, retired before the game will inspire him. Or perhaps I’m just grasping at straws for any way St. Louis might get into the win column. They did make big strides from week 1 to week 2. After getting shut out 28-0 at Seattle everyone was ready to bury them. At least the defense showed up in a 9-7 loss at Washington. Now comes the home opener, but is there really a big advantage for them here? The days of the Greatest Show on Turf are long gone. Their biggest offensive threat now (by far) is running back Steven Jackson. Like most teams, they want to run the ball and play defense. Spagnuolo brought over that philosophy from the Giants.

Green Bay, on the other hand, is a little free wheeling. Their defense tends to be hit and miss. Offensively Aaron Rodgers passing the ball is the focus. The biggest knock on him since he took over from a certain legend has been an inability to deliver the clutch winning drive. He delivered in the opener, and was on the brink of a miracle overtime-forcing touchdown last week before a false start penalty ended the game. What we really have here is the Rams trying to stay close by riding Jackson while the Packers want to put them out of their misery early on the arm of Rodgers. I’m looking at a surprisingly tight game because I see St. Louis staying in it. It is worth noting that in three dome games Rodgers is 1-2 and his quarterback rating is almost 10 point lower than it is outdoors. The win was over the eventually 0-16 Detroit Lions. He has to shake the dome blues and this is an ideal time to do it: Green Bay 27, St. Louis 20 (GB -6/over 41)

NY Giants (2-0) @ Tampa Bay (0-2): There are fond memories on one side and distant ones on the other. The Bucs must feel like January 7, 2008 was a lot more than 20 months ago given how much turmoil their franchise has gone through since then. A losing season and a fired head coach will do that. The Giants happily look back on the first road notch of their improbable run to the Super Bowl. They dominated that game and appear poised to dominate this one. Coming out of college I was high on Michigan’s Mario Manningham. He finally delivered on my expectations last week with 10 receptions for 150 yards. The “other” Steve Smith caught 10 passes as well, ringing up 134 yards. The pair now ranks second and fourth in the entire NFL for receiving yardage. Wasn’t this supposed to be even more of a smash mouth running team with Plaxico Burress out of the picture? Instead they have thrived with the threat of the run and let their young receivers make plays. The Bucs have been making due passing the football without a true #1 as well. Veteran Byron Leftwich is just 14 yards behind Eli Manning two games into the season. They have gotten behind in high scoring losses to Dallas and at Buffalo, which helps the passing stats. On the ground ex-Giant rusher Derrick Ward broke up with his former band mates and now due to an injury to Cadillac Williams might be embarking on a solo career. He will be inspired against his former teammates, but most of New York’s defensive efforts are going to be focused on stopping him, when they aren’t knocking Leftwich down.

It just seems to me at the moment that new head coach Raheem Morris is running his tail off to catch up. When Monte Kiffin ran the defense the Bucs could always lean on that side of the ball to stay in games. Now they lack any sort of identity. Most felt wide receiver Michael Clayton was grossly overpaid, and to some extent tight end Kellen Winslow as well yet they are tied for the team lead with 120 receiving yards. Do they scare anyone though? New York is suspect at the safety position following the season ending injury to Kenny Phillips. This might provide them an opportunity to hang around if they can hit a big play or two. I don’t think so. The Giants are ridiculously good on the road. They are coming off crashing a massive party opening up the new “palace at Dallas”. Even an understandably flat start coming off that high will not prevent them from slugging this one out: NY Giants 27, Tampa Bay 14 (NYG -6.5/under 46)

Tennessee (0-2) @ NY Jets (2-0): With one team coming off the NFL’s best regular season and the other starting a rookie quarterback most would expect these records to be reversed yet here we are. Head coach Rex Ryan saw what a rookie did for his Ravens last season and is enjoying the ride thus far. I have no problem admitting it surprises me to see them already notching a road win and upset of division favorite New England already. Conversely, the Titans are in a bit of trouble. Remember the, uh, Texans? New York dominated them 24-7 on their field. The following week Tennessee had them at home and lost a 34-31 shootout. Anyone who thinks last year’s performances by these teams will produce a “correction” needs to take that into account. Kerry Collins is not able to hand the ball off and watch the running game dominate while the defense shuts down the opposition. Now he has to throw and their receivers are a work in progress. Making matters worse, as Tom Brady found out last week these Jets blitz. It’s easier to do that when a guy like Revis completely eliminates the best receiving threat on the opposition.

Chris Johnson might be a dangerous running back, but Rex Ryan is not going to put his defense in position to allow him to make a single big play much less three long touchdowns like last week. Offensively New York has things under control. They run effectively and Sanchez converts on third down. This is not a potent attack. It is just good enough to beat you. There is a certain element of desperation working in the favor of the Titans, who know starting 0-3 just about dooms their playoff aspirations. The Jets put a lot on the line last week and are due for a letdown. It’s the kind of game where if both of those factors really apply I could see Tennessee streaking out to a big lead and everyone’s eyes popping out of their head when they see the score on the bottom of their television screen. I’m not predicting that though. My expectation is pretty simple. Although Collins is familiar with this stadium from his playing days with the Giants, he will be miserable: NY Jets 20, Tennessee 16 (NYJ -2.5/under 37.5)

New Orleans (2-0) @ Buffalo (1-1): I’m looking for some fireworks. Drew Brees has his eyes on some passing records. It doesn’t even matter if the Saints can play defense because they have scored 93 points. In two games the Bills have been involved in 102 total points have gone up. If Buffalo wants to win though, a shootout is ill-advised for obvious reasons. They contained a rusty Tom Brady for most of the opener, then watched Byron Leftwich pile up 296 yards and 3 touchdowns. With Mike Bell out, and it seems strange to consider this significant yet it is, their running back position is unsettled. Pierre Thomas could be back and someone named Lynell Hamilton might see action as well. More likely the Saints are going to keep the ball in the hands of Drew Brees and count on him delivering. It’s a good bet, especially if McGee and McKelvin are ineffective due to injuries. As for Buffalo’s offense, most of it has run through Fred Jackson as he “fills in” for suspended Marshawn Lynch. He has averaged a healthy 5.1 yards per carry and also leads the team in receptions (11) and receiving yards (108). To win this game Terrell Owens and Lee Evans have to get involved early because points are going to be flying.

Until proven otherwise Buffalo reeks of mediocrity. The Saints seem like the latest team to surprisingly claim the NFC South. They are fortunate to draw this game early in the season before the weather turns. A quick peek at the schedule reveals more of this good fortune in avoiding poor conditions down the line, notably after Thanksgiving when just one game (at Kansas City) will be played outdoors. This can be a tide turning game. The Bills are one blowout loss away from Terrell Owens imploding on them. I don’t see them getting wiped out here, but with three of their next four on the road this is one they must have to stay in contention. Once it slips away the timer starts on Owens: New Orleans 27, Buffalo 23 (BUF +6/under 52)

Chicago (1-1) @ Seattle (1-1): Even if the records are the same, these teams are not heading in the same direction. The Seahawks just lost their leader in the form of quarterback Matt Hasselbeck. The Bears got their signal caller “back” when Jay Cutler bounced back from a dismal debut with the team. I have heard a lot of chatter about how Seattle is not the same team with Seneca Wallace under center. Yep, that’s right. Last year they were 3-5 when he was their primary quarterback and 1-6 when the bald guy was at the controls. I think some analysts are just mesmerized into thinking that if a starter is out automatically a team is worse. Obviously the team prefers the guy who led them to their only Super Bowl appearance, but they are not exactly a lost cause without him. Of more importance the ‘Hawks could be without Walter Jones and Sean Locklear meaning they are down to their third option at left tackle. Any hopes of establishing a consistent offensive rhythm is going to be disrupted if that is the case.

Points should be at a premium because Chicago’s offense is also struggling. Matt Forte is making FFL owners frown with his 2.2 yards per carry. He has just 117 total yards and no touchdowns. Johnny Knox has been a bright spot for the receivers. They need someone, anyone to make some plays and he leads the team with 152 yards. Assuming Cutler plays within himself Chicago should grind out some yards. The “12th Man” atmosphere is always an advantage for Seattle, even at a time like this when they appear outclassed. Even while going 2-6 here in 2008 they were in almost every game. Defense is going to rule the afternoon and any big play on special teams could turn the tide. I’m already regretting this pick because the Seahawks always bring a little extra on their home turf, but in a low scoring game Cutler has one more scoring drive in him than Wallace: Chicago 19, Seattle 14 (CHI -2/under 37)

Pittsburgh (1-1) @ Cincinnati (1-1): Suddenly this game matters again. The Steelers dropped a game because their normally reliable kicker missed a pair of field goals. The Bengals surprised the Packers and now can push the defending champions to third place. I bashed a certain Twitter loving wide receiver in this space last week and his offense delivered a performance reminiscent of the early part of this decade. Can they do it again with a far superior defense opposing them? Anything is possible, but even without their hairy safety in the lineup Pittsburgh has an answer for every Cincinnati question if you catch my drift. On the other hand, the Steelers are dogged by questions about their shoddy offensive line. Didn’t we hear this all last season? It has in fact gotten worse because their running game is nil. Willie Parker has faded fast and they have only handed the ball to Rashard Mendenhall 7 times.

All of the pressure falls on the shoulders of Ben Roethlisberger. He is okay with that. Sure, he is on pace to be sacked 48 times. So what? He has taken 46, 47 and 46 the past three seasons. His game plan is keeping the play alive long enough to deliver a key pass. Sometimes he gets sacked. The defense is usually there to bail him out when a sack kills their drive. Thus far I’m cautiously impressed with Cincinnati’s defense. Early in the season everyone has a dream. The Bengals are dreaming big here. They have home field, but since Big Ben was drafted are 0-5 here against the Steelers. Pittsburgh has taken the past five meetings in a row overall. I’ll take the defense I know can do it over the one I think might do it: Pittsburgh 21, Cincinnati 17 (PIT -3.5/over 37)

Denver (2-0) @ Oakland (1-1): A moment of silence if you will for the Silver & Blackout imposed by the NFL in the Bay Area. I’ll be sure to watch the game online later which is totally the same thing. Yeah, right. This is actually shaping up to be a pivotal game for the AFC West race. The Broncos have scratched their way past both Ohio teams and for good reason most people are skeptical. The Raiders split with their other two division rivals in tightly contested games. Denver is trying to push Oakland into their annual spiral. If it goes the other way things could get interesting. Both teams have issues at quarterback. Kyle Orton is constantly under fire for not being Jay Cutler, or Matt Cassel for that matter. JaMarcus Russell is horribly inaccurate and trying to shake the “bust” label. Other than a few big throws down the field he has been awful.

The Raider running game suffered a blow when guard Robert Gallery broke his leg. Even with him they had yet to really establish a consistent rushing attack. Darren McFadden was expected by many to break out this season yet his longest run is 11 yards. Michael Bush has only been called on 21 times. If they are going to turn it around this week it has to come against a run defense that has improved dramatically since ex-49er head coach Mike Nolan took over the defensive coordinator position. It’s early, but they allowed 5.0 yards per carry in 2008 and are sitting on 2.9 right now. Oakland has also turned it up a notch on defense with the additions of veterans Richard Seymour and Greg Ellis. Both are adding the leadership many previous acquisitions failed to provide. This is going to be a tussle. These games always are. Even if Mike Shanahan is no longer involved in the rivalry there is genuine hatred between these teams. I feel like thus far the Josh McDaniels era has been living out a dream start on the field after a nightmare beginning off of it. Consider this waking up: Oakland 21, Denver 20 (OAK +2/over 36.5)

Miami (0-2) @ San Diego (1-1): Deep inside I think everyone knew the Dolphins were not really an 11-5 caliber team even if they finished that way in 2008. The same can be said about the Chargers being much better than their 8-8 campaign. We’ll see if those opinions hold true after the dust settles in this one. Miami has to be emotionally down. They did everything right against Indianapolis on MNF, holding the ball forever, running effectively and converting third downs. Eventually Peyton Manning got the football and beat them. Travelling across the country on a short week shackled with the 0-2 record is going to be tough on them. The Chargers are a little disappointed having lost a big one to the Ravens, but it was at home and their only plane ride has been a quick one to Northern California. They have the advantage in the “fresh” department.

At quarterback this might be it for Chad Pennington. He was smartly signed for two years by Bill Parcells and I would not be surprised to see him holding a clipboard very soon. Chad Henne was drafted to start and with their season on the line how much longer can they wait to see if he can provide a spark passing the ball down the field? They started using the Wildcat offense because of personnel deficiencies. It is still dangerous as they proved against the Colts. However, the Chargers need no such gimmicks to score points, even with LT on the sideline. With Philip Rivers they are always in it. I’m sure they would prefer to have a punishing running back, like say Michael Turner who they let get away, but in lieu of that Rivers can just throw for 350 yards right? I feel as if the ‘Fins have run out of steam. The quarterback switch might happen before this game is over in fact: San Diego 26, Miami 19 (SD -5.5/over 44)

Indianapolis (2-0) @ Arizona (1-1): IBig plays saved both of these teams last week. The Colts got a huge effort from tight end Dallas Clark (183 receiving yards) before unheralded Pierre Garcon scored the game winning touchdown at Miami. The Cardinals turned around their game at Jacksonville by returning a blocked field goal for a touchdown. This early in the season squeezing out a win can change a team’s outlook in a hurry. It definitely still applies here. The Cards have already lost at home and are in desperate need of a confidence boost. Starting 1-2 will keep everyone talking about the “Super Bowl loser curse” during their bye week. A signature win over an elite team quiets that for a while. The Colts are used to winning and up until now have made people forget Tony Dungy is no longer their head coach. As long as it keeps going everything is fine. The first loss will raise questions and in two weeks they visit division rival Tennessee.

Most of the SNF talk will be centered on the former MVP quarterbacks. Kurt Warner might still have it. Let’s not discuss text message from a teammate’s relative okay? Larry Fitzgerald was bound to appear mortal following his super human performance in the playoffs and the offensive overall is a little flat. First round pick Beanie Wells should eventually boost the running game. They can definitely challenge Indy’s defense which seemed overwhelmed by Miami last week. The Colts have just as many players as every other team, but only one really matters. It’s becoming redundant, but Peyton Manning simply wills them to victory regardless of the situation. Their rookie running back Donald Brown is coming around as well. This early in the season the offense looks ordinary other than clutch plays against the Dolphins. Remember, Jacksonville held them to 14. The Jags then let Warner finish 24/26 passing against them to set an NFL record. Under the lights I want to believe in the “underdog” Cardinals because their run last year was so magical. The party seems to be over though. Maybe it’s losing Haley at offensive coordinator, or James at running back. Whatever it is I see them falling off the map after letting this one get away: Indianapolis 31, Arizona 27 (IND +3/over 48)

Carolina (0-2) @ Dallas (1-1): Take two? Jerry Jones has a second chance to display his massive stadium to a national television audience. This time maybe the visitors will do the right thing and lose. There is never a dull moment in “Big D”. Tony Dorsett, a star running back from before some of you reading this were born, is criticizing starting quarterback Tony Romo. He probably deserves it. After lighting up Tampa Bay he failed to complete 50% of his passes and his interceptions handed the rival Giants a victory in a sense. I expected them to lean heavily on their running backs in the post-Owens era. Instead they have come out passing. It worked in the opener. Not so much against New York. Carolina can relate. Their starter was flat awful against Philadelphia before a much less repulsive effort at Atlanta. Both resulted in a loss, but at least Delhomme had 308 yards against the Falcons. Will the good or bad version of each quarterback show up?

The better question is why either offensive coordinator even has them in this position. The Panthers have two quality running backs. The Cowboys have three, two if Barber is unable to recover quickly from injury. Both defenses have been suspect which is great for viewers hoping to see some scoring. Which team is going to stick with the running game? I think both will have success. In high scoring games anything is possible. Steve Smith seems poised to post ridiculous numbers a week after another Steve Smith lit up this defense. Roy Williams wants to make a big impact, but has been unable to take over the Dallas offense like, well, T.O. used to at times. The prevailing thought in my mind is the odds of the Cowboys losing every significant closing and opening of a stadium game. Their SNF opener here went sour, which means the MNF debut will be sweet: Dallas 35, Carolina 24 (DAL -8.5/over 47)