NFL Predictions and Analysis - Week 1
by Gregory Cox
College Football Director
9/13/09

Dallas @ Tampa Bay: I think the Cowboys are happy to have the NFC spotlight shining on other teams. This time last year they were coming off a summer of “Hard Knocks”. It was all about T.O. and Super Bowl expectations for a team without a playoff win in over a decade. Now the focus is on the defense and running game, which was the recipe for division rival New York winning their title. Perhaps the lack of a #1 receiver is going to hurt their chances at some point, but not in the opener. The Bucs are in transition. They have no quarterback and against a likely top 10 defense it’s just not happening. Their own defense has gotten younger and will now be built in the image of Morris after the departure of Kiffin. Tampa Bay is going to come out fighting. Florida is a tough place to play in September. Eventually the disparity in level of talent should shine through: Dallas 22, Tampa Bay 10 (DAL -4/under 40.5)

Detroit @ New Orleans: There are always eye popping games in the first week. I would not bat an eye if the Lions win this game straight up. The Saints are horribly inconsistent and disorganized. They lack direction. Matthew Stafford vs. Drew Brees is a mismatch if there ever was one on paper. On the field who knows. Reggie Bush is talking about running straight ahead this season because, unlike his days at USC, he is incapable of making anyone miss. He will be catching passes more than running in this one. Brees is going to have a big game because he makes the most of players around him. Stafford has Calvin Johnson at his disposal and an underrated backfield of Kevin Smith and possibly some Aaron Brown mixed in. Their offense will sting the Saints on occasion. One thing I am certain of is that no one will be laughing at Detroit after this game. Their effort level will be way up compared to their record setting 0-16 campaign. It should be close for a while: New Orleans 31, Detroit 21 (DET +13.5/over 48.5)

Miami @ Atlanta: A lot has changed since these teams had their openers in 2008. Now they are coming off stunning playoff appearances and their fan bases want more. I’m just not sure if either team really has what it takes to make the next step. The Dolphins tricked the NFL with their Wildcat and took advantage of New England losing Tom Brady en route to winning the AFC East. Baltimore took the wind out of their sails in a hurry when it mattered. The Falcons continue to turn over a lot of personnel and are younger on defense. If the guys being plugged in can deliver this might be an elite NFC team for a few years to come because the offense has the parts to get the job done. Matt Ryan will be fighting a sophomore slump and at least can be happy he stayed off the Madden cover, unlike Vince Young. Emotion should rule the day here because not much separates these teams. Michael Turner is capable of keeping the Wildcat in the cage as the Falcons dominate time of possession. I’m seeing Atlanta building a steady lead which will force Miami into counting too much on Chad Pennington actually completing passes. Comeback player of the year (twice) or not this will not lead to a happy result for the visitors: Atlanta 27, Miami 19 (ATL -4/over 43)

NY Jets @ Houston: What’s the over/under on Pete Carroll tweets as he watches Brian Cushing attempting to sack Mark Sanchez in their pro debuts? I’ll take the over if it is a single digit number. I really like the Texans this season and I’m not alone. The reason is pretty simple. They put up good yardage totals on both sides of the ball in 2008, but couldn’t finish games. Part of it was having Sage Rosenfels on the roster and they fixed that. Matt Schaub is bound to stay healthy for a full 16 at some point right? All I really care about is the full 60 for this game. He has much better passing options than Joe Namath Jr. on the other side and the Texans should put up some points. New York is going to be a lot like USC. On offense their stable of backs will do the heavy lifting and it is up to the defense to put them in position to succeed. Eventually this is going to work for Rex Ryan’s bunch. They will bring swagger to the Big Apple and maybe even a championship before too long. Right now them chemistry just isn’t there: Houston 28, NY Jets 17 (HOU -4/over 43)

Denver @ Cincinnati: I never expected to believe the Bengals would easily win this game, but it sure looks that way. The Broncos got rid of their franchise quarterback and his replacement has a boo-boo on his finger. They do have a star receiver, but his status is unclear because he is insane. The defense is probably still terrible which certainly helps. I have a feeling Cincinnati is happy to open against a team with more problems. Their franchise quarterback is also dinged up. First round pick Andre Smith signed late and immediately got hurt so he’s not going to be helping out on the offensive line for a while. Chad Ochocinco is mouthing off to anyone who will listen about how well he will play this season – for a team likely going nowhere. How do you really decide between two teams with no definitive strength and so many issues to work out? Home field, that’s how. Cedric Benson might be the star of this game which should make fantasy football players happy: Cincinnati 31, Denver 13 (CIN -4/over 42.5)

Philadelphia @ Carolina: Either these teams are going to meet with a Super Bowl on the line or neither makes the playoffs. Things are that wacky in the NFC. The Eagles alienated dog owners and rational people everywhere when they signed Michael Vick. It was a desperate move by a team that obviously believes a few more positive plays is all they need to claim a championship. Team chemistry is not on the menu. Their first two draft picks somewhat mirrored what Pittsburgh did preceding their title run – a running back and receiver. The Steelers were applauded for “stealing” Mendenhall and Sweed on draft day, but got hardly anything out of them. Now the Eagles are hoping McCoy can ease the pain of Westbrook being constantly nicked up and Maclin builds on the spark rookie DeSean Jackson provided last year to the downfield passing game. On paper it sounds great. Hey what about the Panthers? Oh, I guess they have a shot too. It would be a better shot if Jake Delhomme was not allowed to throw any more passes. He might be a bum, but he’s their bum and apparently they are okay with it. As much grief as McNabb gets in Philly can you imagine if Delhomme was donning wings? They would be torching his jerseys outside the stadium. If the Panthers are going to win DeAngelo Williams must take over. Jim Johnson’s passing creates an opportunity to catch this defense when they are down. Dawkins is gone. Bradley is hurt. It seems like there will be some scoring and when the chips are down I’ll take the better running team: Carolina 31, Philadelphia 24 (CAR +2.5/over 43.5)

Jacksonville @ Indianapolis: Remember when the Jags were a trendy Super Bowl pick? Yeah, me neither. I do remember the Colts winning a dozen games as usual. There always seem to be lingering issues with Indy, but Peyton Manning is a constant. He is always there to bail them out. Conversely, the Jaguars are hoping an overpaid quarterback and somewhat unproven running back can lead their offense. Garrard is about as average as they come. Jones-Drew can be brilliant in spots, but has yet to prove he can be “the guy”. Their defense is far from dominant they need to be if this team wants to make the playoffs. The Colts might have a few different parts on offense, but the result is going to be familiar. I wish I had more to say. This could wind up being a snoozer: Indianapolis 30, Jacksonville 14 (IND -6.5/under 45)

Minnesota @ Cleveland: Perhaps Eric Mangini wanted to steal some of the spotlight from his former quarterback’s return to the NFL by withholding his own team’s starter from the media. The quarterbacks are really not the issue in this game. I make no secret of my opinion that quarterback play is a big factor most of the time. In this case not so much. The Vikings have a vastly underrated defense that is going to maul the Browns. Their running back is a machine, and smart enough to hang up the phone when EA Sports calls. Everyone will be talking about Favre and perhaps even Quinn. Neither guy will do much to impact the outcome – at least not in a positive way. Subplots could help viewers stay awake in the second half when Adrian Peterson is helping the visitors salt this one away: Minnesota 24, Cleveland 14 (MIN -3/under 40)

Kansas City @ Baltimore: There is some question about whether or not Matt Cassel will start for the Chiefs due to injury. Let me help Haley and Pioli make this decision. Are you nuts? You just signed this guy to be the future and you want to throw him to the Ravens? I’m not convinced Baltimore will build on their surprising run through the AFC playoffs, but this is a game they should dominate. Kansas City is in serious flux. Their offensive line is not what it used to be when Priest Holmes was a fantasy football god. The defense is showing signs of turning it around in time. By that I mean 2010, possibly 2011. The Ravens should overwhelm the visitors from the opening gun. Flacco knows how to stick to the game plan. Hand the ball off and when you pass it make sure the other guys do not catch it: Baltimore 34, Kansas City 6 (BAL -12.5/over 36)

Washington @ NY Giants: The Redskins are a bit of a nuisance. They always seem capable of beating anyone only to blow it. New York is under a lot of pressure to deliver after bolstering their defensive front seven. Then there is the Plaxico Burress nightmare. Can the Giants win it all without a legit receiver? Time will tell, but we know their offense can run the ball. No one really knows what the ‘Skins can do. Their defensive line is awesome on my computer screen. We are going to find out how it looks in action against a team determined to come straight at them. Most of these meetings are low scoring. Do we have an ETA on Jason Campbell actually breaking out as an impact quarterback? His own team tried to run him out of town more than once this past offseason. Eli Manning puts his guys ahead with an ugly field goal drive and the visitors are unable to answer: NY Giants 17, Washington 14 (WAS +6.5/under 37)

St. Louis @ Seattle: Both teams are hoping to take advantage of a dreadful NFC West division, but do either have the talent to get it done? A new head coach can be a fresh start and each team has one. The Rams are trying to shift their emphasis towards more a blue collar approach. The days of the “Greatest Show on Turf” are long gone and perhaps watching Holt exit drove that message home. Steven Jackson is a tremendous running back who is languishing on a team unable to support him. As for the Seahawks, they have high hopes for some strange reason. True, Matt Hasselbeck might play. Edgerrin James might even run the ball effectively a few times as well. Overall, as Mora’s father might say the “playoffs?!” are not in their future. Some false hope is going to be created when they look impressive in this one: Seattle 28, St. Louis 10 (SEA -7/under 41)

San Francisco @ Arizona: The 49ers were very close to stealing the NFC West last season. Instead the Cardinals swept them and of course marched within one drive of winning it all. These teams are actually fairly evenly matched. San Francisco is building a contender. Arizona might be a bit of an illusion. The euphoria of defending as NFC champions should be enough to lift the home team to a solid start. Hill can’t rally the visitors from behind. He lacks the skill passing the ball down the field and has no rock solid targets. My biggest doubt where the Cards are concerned is Warner staying healthy. Chris “Beanie” Wells might help balance the offense and keep Warner from having to throw the ball on every down – eventually. Boldin is not expected to play which means all eyes are on Fitzgerald and other Arizona receivers need to do some damage. I think they can and will: Arizona 28, San Francisco 20 (AZ -6/over 46)

Chicago @ Green Bay: Everyone wants to talk about Cutler. The better quarterback in this game is Rodgers. Defense usually rules these games. Fans are used to bruising, low scoring affairs with a lot of running. This is SNF though and crazy stuff happens under the lights. For me the biggest difference is talent around the quarterbacks. Chicago has none. Green Bay has some. This rivalry will be a lot better now that both teams have someone capable of delivering the football. The biggest issue Rodgers had last year, and the reason the Packers failed, was closing. This time he finishes: Green Bay 34, Chicago 27 (GB -3.5/over 46)

Buffalo @ New England: How nice of the NFL to give us T.O. in primetime. Too bad his team has no firepower to keep this game interesting. It isn’t just Lynch being out at running back due to a suspension. Their offensive line is a serious weakness. Evans and Owens form a nice duo at receiver if Edwards had time to find them. The Patriots might be in a weakened state on defense, especially in the leadership department, but does it really matter? Their offense is going to score as long as Brady is able to throw passes. The running back position has a decent committee going. As fun as it would be to see the Bills return to relevance I’m not seeing it: New England 31, Buffalo 13 (NE -10.5/under 47.5)

San Diego @ Oakland: This is the second half of the MNF doubleheader instead of Cards/49ers because of the AFL anniversary celebration. Fans of the Raider Nation continue to believe their team’s talent is going to trump obvious failures in coaching and team chemistry. Trading for Richard Seymour is a prime example of this. He might help them plug a few holes in the running game and record a few sacks. Now if they can trade for another handful of quality players for their defense it might make a difference. The lone distraction for the Chargers, everyone’s pick to steamroll the AFC West, is Shawne Merriman engaging in a PR battle with a reality television “star”. Who really cares if “Lights Out” plays though? He might not even be at full speed. He might never regain his once dominant form. The guys who will play include Rivers who is going to dink and dunk his way down the field all night. LT is in the twilight of his career, but he always brings out his best for the Silver & Black. The only chance Oakland has is making big plays on offense and dominating on special teams. The Chargers are going to make this look very easy: San Diego 28, Oakland 9 (SD -9/under 43)