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Super Bowl XLIII Prediction and Analysis
by Gregory
Cox
Director of NFL
Analysis
1/30/09
I have the AFC figured out pretty well considering I finished 4-1 on
that side of the playoff bracket. The miss was the overtime wild card
game when the Chargers won the flip and the Colts imploded with
penalties. Here is the problem. Arizona is an NFC team and I was just
2-3 picking their conference games including twice doubting the Cards
only to have them prove me wrong. I’m not too upset about my NFC title
game pick. I had Philly 23-20 and suggested it might go to overtime. If
Akers does not kick like the mafia has his family locked in a basement
and the defense stiffens a little at the end the pick would have worked
out. Instead the Cardinals delivered a sweet trick play touchdown and
clutch final drive which accounted for 15 points and turned what might
have been a 25-17 loss (closer to my pick) into a 32-25 win.
Arizona (12-7) vs. Pittsburgh (14-4): pick PIT -6.5/under 47
Are these teams lucky to be here? I think so.
By no means am I trying to take away from their conference title wins,
but certain breaks definitely made it easier for them to reach Tampa.
The Cardinals would make Muhammad Ali proud with their rope-a-dope
finish to the regular season. Opponents looked the films of them
getting blown out game after game and had no idea what this team was
really capable of. The team was able to tank those games because the
three teams opposing them in the NFC West went a grand total of 7-23
when playing teams outside of the division. That’s a .233 winning
percentage. Coasting home kept them rested, and winning the division
put them at home for their tilt with Atlanta, an 11-5 team to their
9-7. To their credit Arizona went to Carolina and toasted the Panthers,
but did it seem like the rain was just waiting to pour down at any
moment? If it had I wonder how the game might have turned out. Finally,
Philadelphia did them a huge favor taking out New York. Understanding
that the Cards were on a roll I’m positive they would not have enjoyed
the freezing Meadowlands.
Their lucky breaks pale in comparison to the Steelers actually. The
first came when San Diego knocked off Indianapolis. Peyton Manning’s
Colts had already registered a win over Pittsburgh at Heinz Field in
November. Avoiding that rematch provided a little relief. Another loss
was a 34-13 thrashing at Tennessee, but rival Baltimore took them out
meaning there would be no return visit to the Music City. I realize the
players say they would have relished a shot for revenge, but the fact
remains that they lost the first meeting by three touchdowns. Finally,
these Cardinals also did them a favor. I know it was September, but
Philadelphia handled these Steelers pretty well in a 15-6 win.
Amazingly, Pittsburgh was favored to play a team that had beaten them
this season 3 times in a row (they lost just 4 games remember) only to
have an upset win “save” them. Personally I think these guys would
dominate any team in the NFL on any field, but it’s interesting anyway.
Did I just give away my pick? We’ll see. I like the deceiving running
game for the Cardinals. They don’t run for average. They run just to
keep the defense occupied while they are preparing for their next pass.
The key for them is staying close enough that Kurt Warner will not be
forced into 50 pass attempts. In half of their regular season games he
threw 39+ passes, but in the three playoff games his average is 30.7.
Oh, and they were 3-5 in those high pass games meaning their record is
now 9-2 when he keeps his pass total below 34. One of those losses
doesn’t even count because it was at snowy New England when the team
didn’t care. Even with 690 passes thrown on the season he has been
sacked only 1.68 times per game. The guy can beat the blitz. Pittsburgh
will bring it because that’s what they do. Their safety play will keep
their defense from being burned for huge plays.
When the Steelers have the ball it’s on Roethlisberger’s shoulders. In
18 games this season he has only 15 interceptions, but 9 of those came
in three losses. Naturally they would like to get ahead as well and not
put him in the position of leading a comeback. If he is in that spot he
might have Super Bowl XL flashbacks and start going Rich Gannon. Hey,
he is facing the guy who once led his offense (Arizona head coach Ken
Whisenhunt) right? His offense has the better running game. Willie
Parker is ready to go and has already done his thing in the big game,
knocking Marcus Allen out of the record books with a 75 yard touchdown
to help beat Seattle. His opposite number Edgerrin James is I’m sure
motivated to be playing his home state of Florida and has definitely
surged in his past four games. He has carried the ball 66 times for 303
yards (4.59 average) including the season finale against Seattle when
he was basically taken off the bench (11 carries the previous 8 games).
He’s not going to beat this defense. In fact, based on his “I’m not a
blocker” comments I would be looking for those blitzing Steelers to
knock him around a little.
Super
Bowls are very emotional which muddies the water. The teams are rested.
They know each other a bit. Haley is a great play caller and in my
opinion is Kansas City’s new head coach in a week. Tomlin makes
questionable calls in clutch spots. If this game is close I would favor
Arizona. They need their inevitable trick play to work as it did in the
NFC title game. I believe it will backfire and result in a turnover.
The Cardinals have gotten this fire by muscling through the NFC. Both
teams split their 4 games against the opposite conference, but
Pittsburgh faced the rugged NFC East while Arizona took on a soft AFC
East. Baltimore crushing champion Miami illustrated that. My
inclination here is that the better conference flexes a bit.
The wrench in my plans is a strange dream I had shortly after the title
games were over. Pittsburgh was leading the game 18-16 (don’t ask me
how the point totals got there) late when Arizona hit a big play to get
into field goal range. Naturally that was all I got. I have no idea if
Rackers joined Vinatieri or Norwood in Super Bowl lore. I find it hard
to even admit I dream about football results, but I feel like if I
don’t mention it and by some miracle it comes to pass no one will
believe me. Instead I’m dealing with reality. The Steelers are much
better. Their defense is going to somehow slow down an effective
Fitzgerald and, yes, Boldin to force field goals. If you noticed the
Cards converted only two field goals in their home playoff wins meaning
their red zone offense killed. This will not happen in the Super Bowl
against the Steelers. Get ready for 3, 6 and 9 to pop up on your sheets
for Arizona. Meanwhile field position will favor Pittsburgh because
their defense is more likely to create turnovers. All it really takes
is one touchdown drive to turn the tide. They get it early and honestly
never look back.
Just for fun I’ll break it down by quarter. I’ll take Pittsburgh 10-3
after the first and 13-9 at halftime. Everyone will believe they are in
for a great second half. Through the third quarter it still looks that
way with the Steelers up 20-12, but when they cash in a touchdown
midway through the quarter the game is ostensibly over. Perhaps the
only question remaining is if Arizona goes for two points after their
“garbage” touchdown. Nah, they take the point: Pittsburgh 27, Arizona 19
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