NFL Predictions - Divisional Round Playoffs
by Gregory Cox
Director of NFL Analysis
1/9/09


I failed to mention my final record in last week’s previews, but my regular season ended 163-92-1. I was 3-1 in the wild card round and demand a change to the overtime rule. We can fix that in a future column I hope the NFL competition committee reads.

Baltimore (12-5) @ Tennessee (13-3): Here we go again. It’s almost like the past half dozen years never happened. I think we all remember a younger Ray Lewis leading his Ravens into this stadium against the #1 seeded Titans. The players are distancing themselves from that 24-10 Baltimore upset in 2000 en route to their Super Bowl title and a subsequent “revenge” win by Tennessee a few seasons later. I can sort of see why. Three current Ravens were Titans for that big upset. All of them will play a role in the outcome this time and perhaps in their mind “revenge” will be beating the team that did not want them to stay badly enough.

When teams have played a lot, or in this case met just two months ago, the familiarity causes me to dump a lot of the statistical analysis. The first ex-Titan is wide receiver Derrick Mason. He could be the most overlooked player in NFL history with 7 seasons of 1,000+ receiving yards. This season he was responsible for 35% of rookie Joe Flacco’s yardage total. Any time the Ravens were in need of a big catch Mason was there as evidenced by his 60 receptions for first down yardage. Did you know he is #7 in the NFL for that category? Ahead of him are Johnson (Houston) Gonzalez (Kansas City) Fitzgerald (Arizona) Marshall (Denver) Wayne (Indianapolis) and White (Atlanta). Other than White, those are bona fide stars. Those guy shave made a living showing up on ESPN in their careers. Mason is the tiebreaker in this game. When it gets to third down where do the Titans turn? None of their players had 30 receptions for first downs. Tight end Bo Scaife led the team in total receptions (58) and Justin Gage was tops in yards (551) despite missing four games.

We know these teams will both run the ball and play defense. If you don’t know I suggest watching another sport. What we don’t know is which quarterback will perform better. Flacco is a rookie, but he’s got Mason and the kind of confidence that comes from not knowing any better. His mentality might be similar to that of another former Pitt Panther, where he started his college career. Dan Marino went to the Super Bowl in his second season and on the way to a Hall of Fame career never returned. Flacco acts like this is a high school playoff game. He’s “Joe Cool” as his teammates call him. Kerry Collins has been here. He knows what is at stake. Chad Pennington to a lesser extent did too. We saw how that turned out. Ironically Collins threw 7 interceptions on the season, the exact number Pennington had thrown before hitting Baltimore players 4 times last week. His 8 total turnovers have been largely responsible for this team going 12-1 before losing their focus a bit at the end. Four of his picks came in two of their wins and actually only one turnover came during a loss (13-12 at Houston). However, two of those interceptions were in the first meeting with Baltimore. The Ravens feel jobbed by a questionable call. They are mad, and it’s another factor in their favor.

The second ex-Titan is fullback Lorenzo Neal. I’m not sure how the Saints, Jets, Bucs, Titans, Bengals and Chargers could all decide it was not a good idea to keep this guy. I realize now he is 38 years old playing a position that by nature uses the human body as a wrecking ball, but all he does is produce. If he wants to play I want him on my team. When both teams want to run the ball, which one has “Lo” leading the way? I combine this with the attitude problems of Tennessee’s backfield tandem. LenDale White has whined about getting more carries as if his average is not 3.9 yards per carry. Chris Johnson complained about losing out on the Rookie of the Year even after finishing third among rookies in rushing yards. Guys, there is no “I” in team. To make matters worse the Ravens have three determined guys at their disposal.

The road was a problem for Baltimore when they played the Colts (31-3 dome loss) and Giants (30-10 loss to a team on a roll). For all of their success Tennessee has had some close calls at home against average teams like Jacksonville early (17-10) and Green Bay at mid-season (19-16) plus getting hammered late by the Jets (34-13 loss). They quieted some of that by handling Pittsburgh (31-14) in week 16. I never want to discount home field advantage at LP Field, but honestly this game is about which defense is a shade nastier, which fullback opens a few more holes and which receiver comes up clutch. All of those things point to the Ravens for me. I know it’s risky banking on a rookie quarterback in this spot, but it worked last week and I’m rolling with it again: Baltimore 15, Tennessee 13

Arizona (10-7) @ Carolina (12-4): Rematch weekend turns my predictions into more of a feeling, which is somewhat ironic considering that Boston’s More Than a Feeling is playing on my internet radio at the moment. It is more than a feeling. It’s about using the past to predict the future. The Panthers and Cardinals met on this field on Halloween week. Arizona played sound defense in the first half and when their offense opened the third quarter with a touchdown drive putting them ahead 17-3 things looked pretty good. However, Carolina answered the scoring drive, recovered a fumble, and scored again to tie it. Arizona continued battling and answered, but a quick march of 3 plays for 73 yards put Carolina up to stay in their 27-23 win. What did we learn that day? The answer is nothing really because two months later weather is going to be a much bigger factor in the outcome.

Struggling in this time zone has been a big problem for the Cardinals. They lost road games to the Redskins (24-17) Jets (56-35) Eagles (48-20) and Patriots (47-7) leaving them 0-5 when you include the first meeting here. Granted, the last game in New England was an exhibition. I am totally fine with Ken Whisenhunt protecting his players in that snowy mess with nothing on the line. He got his team back in order by dispatching Seattle 34-21 in the finale and it carried over to a home playoff win last week. Their confidence is reasonably high. I really don’t think it matters. They will be cold. Anquan Boldin is a fantastic wide receiver. I would not expect him to appear or if he does be a factor in the game. I know he is a tough guy and wants to do it so we will see. Without him suddenly coverage rolls over to another star Larry Fitzgerald. Steve Breaston has been a great addition to this offense, but let’s be honest he is no Boldin and as the third option this offense is in much better shape.

I am glad to see Edgerrin James got his carries. I was afraid his next move would be crying to his mother about not wanting to block. Dude, you are paid millions of dollars to play football. Quit complaining and play, or better yet just retire. If he is inspired to play in the cold after playing his career in sunny Miami (college) Indianapolis (dome) and Arizona (desert) it would stun me. In the 2004 playoffs at New England he had 14 carries for 39 yards (2.8 average) although he did pick up 69 yards receiving during a 20-3 wipeout loss. The previous season there he had 21 touches for 91 yards. In 2002, and I still remember this one, he had 11 touches for 23 yards in Indy’s 41-0 loss to the Jets at the Meadowlands. As the weather drops his average does too. In the coldest weather he is at 3.7 for his career so while it has been nice to see “Edge” get going a bit in Arizona with 30 carries for 173 yards the past two weeks don’t count on him balancing the offense here with Boldin out.

I like the NFL Europe angle. Jake Delhomme and Kurt Warner were teammates on the Amsterdam Admirals at one point with Warner the starter. I miss not watching those games and not caring what happens. I am going to get nostalgic about Warner for a moment and in the process give away my pick. I think this is it for him. I do not expect the Cardinals to win the NFC West next season after having it handed to them in 2008. He’s approaching 40 and maybe five really prolific seasons are enough to get him into the Hall of Fame. It is hard to be critical of a guy so devoted to his religion and in general so nice, but he’s a turnover machine. I realize this season he threw 598 passes in a video game offense. He also had 21 turnovers after giving it away 23 times in 2007. He is prone to fumbling when sacked and throwing the much talked about “killer” interception. His QB rating during the four coldest games of his career is a dismal 41.8 and unlike Delhomme he has no running game to fall back on. The Panthers have an advantage in the sack department, and it will come into play here.

Other than their home opener over Chicago (20-17) the only other team to come within a single score (8 points) of the Panthers on this field, where they were 8-0, was Arizona. Believe me their guys are going to show up just like they did last week. The weather is expected to be in the 40’s and windy. The first part is not as bad as the second part for Arizona. The Panthers will be able to really power this one out in the running game. For me it’s just a matter of how much they will win by. I think they stay close through three quarters and slightly implode late for a somewhat deceiving final margin: Carolina 30, Arizona 17

Philadelphia (10-6-1) @ NY Giants (12-4): All of these games are rematches, but this is the one with the least mystery because it is the only game between division rivals. It’s also their third meeting since November 9. Of the Giants’ games over that stretch, including this one, one-third of them will have been played against the Eagles. They say familiarity breeds contempt. These teams do not like each other. The road team won both games this season with New York getting the best of it first 36-31 and Philadelphia gaining revenge 20-14. There were some constants. Both teams had 2 turnovers in the first meeting, and neither had one in the rematch at the Meadowlands. Offense was steady on paper for the Eagles in total yards (300, 331) but the Giants were vastly different (401, 211) which is why they lost the second game. Much of the blame fell on Plaxico Burress shooting himself in the leg and derailing their balanced attack.

Another really interesting stat jumps out at me from these two meetings. The quarterbacks were sacked a grand total of once each. In the other combined 28 regular season games these teams played the defenses had a grand total of 88 times or 3.14 per game played. Pressuring the quarterback is the key to any defense. Getting to the quarterback and actually sacking him is game changing. For two defenses ranked in the top six for total sacks this season it’s unlikely a third meeting will not produce some drive killing sacks.

One more difference in this game compared to the others, all east of the Mississippi, is the nastiest weather. It will be in the freezing range and windy. There is a chance of precipitation. Under these conditions the tendency is to run, but the Eagles have been stubborn in their insistence to really feature the short passing game. The Giants obviously will send Earth, Wind & Fire onto the field. If the weather turns as expected these guys will be even more effective. In the regular season New York had a nearly perfect 30.7/ 31.4 pass to rush balance while Philadelphia was 37.9/26.7. In the rematch, however, Brian Westbrook had 33 carries for 131 yards to key the victory plus 6 receptions for 72 yards. If he rolls up another two bills in the total yards department the G-Men can consider their title defense over. The big difference for me is how effective his backup Correll Buckhalter can be. He tore up Dallas for 122 yards on 13 touches to get this team into the playoffs. Out of Nebraska there is no issue with him playing in the cold. Still, if Brandon Jacobs is healthy as expected I’m taking the trio of Giants against this duo of Eagles.

One thing I overlooked a bit in last week’s preview for Philadelphia is their terrific secondary. This week I think their biggest impact will be made forcing turnovers on rare third down passes and dominating the New York receivers. Eli Manning has a ring, but that jewelry does not mean he is necessarily the best quarterback on the field. Donovan McNabb is more relaxed than I have seen him in years. When he is smiling it is bad news for the opposing team. Every week it seems there is a coin flip game and while I started this preview leaning in one direction I would easily go the other way.

Here is the decision making difference and surprisingly it is home field. It is surprising because New York made their dramatic run last year on the road, and at times when they play at home this team appears tight with their intense fans looking down at them. Their 7-1 home record was of course blemished by these very Eagles, but at that time this team was in a funk. Philadelphia has done a lot of their damage at home. Last week was a nice victory at Minnesota, but I’m still troubled by their Christmas week 10-3 loss at Washington. The stakes are high. The teams are even and this should be the game of the week. I won’t say it comes down to a coin flip because there is little chance of overtime in this one. Instead I kind of like the two old men playing punter and kicker for the Giants. Their savvy experience in a battle of field position is the key: NY Giants 16, Philadelphia 14

San Diego (9-8) @ Pittsburgh (12-4): An awesome weekend of football ends with the coldest weather and a field that has come under fire for being torn up. However, Ben Roethlisberger credited the decision to stick with grass (which was replaced during the season) with lessening the impact of his concussion suffered in the regular season finale. I can tell what I would credit with eliminating it – a little intelligence by coach Mike Tomlin who should not have let him suit up for that exhibition. He made an inexperienced mistake and likely will not repeat it in his career. The goods new for fans of the Steelers is that backup Byron Leftwich is an overlooked gem. This offense is not counted on to score much because their defense is as dominant as any since the famous Steel Curtain era of the 1970’s.

There are injury problems on the other side too. LaDainian Tomlinson has been the face of the Chargers for years. This season has been trying for him playing hurt and now it looks like he will be out. Darren Sproles came through huge in their win over the Colts last week. He proved me wrong to be sure by keying that victory. However, this is a totally different atmosphere on the road in bad conditions. Some are citing his diminutive size as an advantage. I have even heard the example he is like “tackling oil” because of his elusiveness. I am more concerned about how he will feel when the Pittsburgh defenders do hit him. If he is going to help balance the offense, along with career backup Michael Bennett, he probably needs to carry the ball another 20 or so times. Can he handle all of those hits in weather conditions (20 degrees) like this?

The one area the venue does help San Diego is that it’s a playoff game. They are 0-13 in Pittsburgh during the regular season including this year’s ugly, tough (to say the least) 11-10 loss. However, they have won both playoffs games in the city although neither came at Heinz Field. This field is really unique. It is hard to kick field goals here and in that regard it almost makes it like a “pitcher’s park” in baseball. What I mean by that is do you really need to help this Pittsburgh defense by having a field where long field goals are rare? These guys allowed 223 points on the season and 14% of those came in their loss at Tennessee – 34% in three of their four losses actually.

San Diego’s defense came up very big last week against Peyton Manning and the Indianapolis Colts, but without pass rusher Shawne Merriman this is not a unit capable of outshining an elite defense in their stadium. While it can not be overlooked that this team held Pittsburgh without a touchdown in the first meeting (3 field goals and a safety) Big Ben did pass for 308 yards and complete 76% of his throws. A lot of that went to Hines Ward (11 receptions, 124 yards) who always seem to play better in big games. On the other side Philip Rivers has been playing with a chip on his shoulder leading a once 4-8 team into the divisional round and wondering how he was left off the Pro Bowl team. He was 15/26 (58%) for 159 yards and two interceptions in the first game including being sacked for the safety.

The improvement in the surface compared to the first meeting favors San Diego’s passing game. Vincent Jackson disappeared last week until he made news off the field with a DUI arrest. He had a breakthrough season with 59 receptions for 1,098 yards and 7 touchdowns which were all career highs. After finishing with a staggering 18 receptions for 300 yards (2 touchdowns) in three playoffs games last year it was obvious Indianapolis was dead set on keeping him contained. He did not have a single reception. The injured tight end Antonio Gates turned in 8 receptions for 87 yards to help win the defensive struggle. I think it is fair to say this will make last week look like an offensive explosion. More than any other game this week being tired will impact the Chargers. They have been in sudden death since the calendar turned to December. The Steelers are rested and ready. By the fourth quarter I think the difference in how hard each team has had to play in the past few weeks will show: Pittsburgh 17, San Diego 13