NFL Predictions - Week 17
by Gregory Cox
Director of NFL Analysis
12/25/08


Atlanta (11-5) @ Arizona (9-7): The Cardinals must feel totally disrespected by the NFL, the media and most fans. It has been over 60 years since this franchise has hosted a playoff game. They were in Chicago then. Most people reading this are not even aware this team came from St. Louis if that gives you any idea how tortured their diehard fans are. The disrespect is self inflicted and based on their dismal 2-4 finish to the season. Their two wins were at home over NFC West weaklings St. Louis and Seattle. Those teams won a combined 4 games when not playing each other. The four losses were to the champion New York Giants, Philadelphia, Minnesota and New England. They somewhat hung in against the G-Men in a 37-29 loss, but were blown out by an average of 29.7 points in the other three games against winning teams. News flash! Atlanta is a winning team. The Cards went 3-7 when playing outside of their division. Their last win over a team with a winning record was way back on October 12 when they knocked off Dallas 30-24 when Tony Romo suffered an injury during the game. Their lone win over a playoff game was in the second week of the season when they dusted off Miami 31-10. Both games were in this stadium.

Matt Ryan has a cool nickname which I love because too often guys try to coin their own and it winds up sounding stupid. Matty Ice is just that under pressure and it earned him the offensive Rookie of the Year award. The voting was not close, much to the chagrin of Tennessee running back Chris Johnson. Speaking of running backs, Ryan would be nowhere near this award without free agent signing Michael Turner. The credit always goes to the quarterback, but let’s be honest about this. Turner has carried this offense. He opened the season with 220 yards rushing and ended it with 208. His nickname (Burner) is not as strong as “All Day” Adrian Peterson, but he finished just 61 yards behind him for the NFL rushing title with 1,699 yards. He also logged an NFL high 376 carries. I think he answered the questions about him being able to carry the load after backing up Tomlinson in San Diego the past four years.  In their five losses he had 14, 18, 17, 25 and 18 carries for an average of 18.4. His average in their wins was 25.8. Atlanta had the second most rushing attempts this season behind only Baltimore who was also led by a rookie quarterback. They will run the ball early and often. If they are successful this game is over. Arizona has an average run defense. I expect Turner and the now healthier than he has been Jerious Norwood to do plenty of damage. Every positive gain puts less pressure on Ryan in his first playoff start. This isn’t exactly Michael Vick going to Lambeau Field and tearing up the Packers, but considering how fired up Arizona will be playing their first home playoff game in most of the viewing audience’s lifetime it is going to be significant.

The Cardinals are going to show up, much to the surprise of many prognosticators who seem convinced the Falcons will roll their helmets out and sweep away the NFC West champions just because their division was weak. Arizona got a monster season out of veteran quarterback Kurt Warner who has been in the playoffs before. He finished with 4,583 yards passing and 30 touchdowns, but was too generous with turnovers (21) which have plagued him over the course of his career. In his last 30 games Warner has turned it over 44 times. You cannot win in the playoffs giving the other team the ball 1.5 times from the quarterback position. Obviously there is no such thing as half of a turnover, but if it ticks to 2 their odds of winning drop precipitously. The team is 3-3 this season when he gives it away 2+ times and 2-5 in those games in 2007. He has the big game NFL playoff experience to fall back on, and certainly the hardware, but unlike Ryan will not be helped by his running game. The Cards are dead last with 73.6 rushing yards per game with an NFL low 340 rushes, but most importantly their average (3.5) is higher than only one team (Indianapolis). Statistics are only a history, not a prediction of future events. However, who is going to take advantage of an Atlanta defense allowing 4.9 yards per carry, the fourth highest total in the NFL? Rookie Tim Hightower finished the season averaging 2.8 yards on 143 carries despite being a fantasy football star with 10 rushing touchdowns. Can veteran Edgerrin James flip the switch? If last week is any indication the answer is yes. He carried the ball 14 times for 100 yards. His bookend showings are not as impressive as Turner, but the last time he had 100 prior to that was the opener when he had exactly 100. For the record, Turner and James both lit up bad teams in those four games.

As I write these breakdowns I start to form an opinion about which team I believe will come out in front and how it will happen. Atlanta is going to ride Turner and hope Ryan lives up to his nickname by protecting the football. Arizona might turn to James against a soft run defense, and will look for the potent passing attack to pick them up on third down now that Anquan Boldin is back in the lineup. He was rested when the team clinched the division early and finished with 89 receptions despite playing only 12 games. If you are not big on math that translates to 119 for a full season and would have led the NFL assuming his averages held. Atlanta has a pretty average pass defense. The one stat popping out at me is just 10 interceptions, the fifth lowest total in the NFL. Their sack total is a decent 34, the eleventh highest total. If you want to beat Warner the recipe is to sack him and force interceptions. They have not demonstrated the ability to do either of those things this particularly well this season. Arizona has allowed 28 sacks so if you play the numbers it translates to Warner being sacked twice and throwing one interception. I am playing the numbers. It is what I do. My prediction is predicated on Warner’s experience trumping Ryan’s fantastic rookie season. Ryan is a great story, as the Falcons are overall. Their success has overshadowed the Cardinals breaking through after years of being projected as the “sexy” pick to win the division. As underdogs they deliver because while the Falcons can run their way to contend the Cardinals can answer quickly down the field and if they so choose run a little with “Edge”.: Arizona 31, Atlanta 27

Indianapolis (12-4) @ San Diego (8-8): One thing we can immediately dismiss from this equation is momentum. Both teams have it in spades. Perhaps the Colts have more because they won eight games in a row. I would characterize their mood as a little more level for lack of a better word because their playoff clinching victory came a week before Christmas. The Chargers rose from the dead, or at least thought dead at 4-8, to win their final four games. Their clincher came in the final game of the NFL season last Sunday night. It was the second of two “playoff” games where the winner was in and the loser, Denver, was out. Their situation became dire with three consecutive losses after trudging to a disappointing 4-5 start. However, let’s look at those games that put them in the hole. The first was at Pittsburgh, a street fight 11-10 loss to the #2 seed in the AFC. The second was a gut wrenching 23-20 loss against these Colts when Peyton Manning directed one of his classic comeback drives. The last came at the hands of Atlanta 22-16 and the Falcons finished 11-5. On the downside this team is 0-5 against playoff teams. Granted they lost those games by 2, 7, 1, 3 and 6 points but they still lost. This is a bottom line league. If this was a horseshoe competition my money is on San Diego. Their biggest wins came over the New York Jets, New England and Tampa Bay who all finished with winning records and missed the playoffs as a result of the Chargers beating them.

We have already seen this game played out on this field in the regular season on November 23 and in last year’s playoffs at the now torn down RCA Dome, not to mention another November game in 2007 here at Qualcomm Stadium. The Chargers won the playoff game 28-24 and the regular season game 23-21 last year before Vinatieri’s field goal from 51 yards broke the Colts through in the last meeting. In the playoff game San Diego stunned the football world by winning with backups. Rivers was knocked out so Billy Volek finished at quarterback. Tomlinson was banged up and Michael Turner, now with the Falcons, took most of the rushing duties. Star tight end Antonio Gates also was limited. This year the injury bug has hit LT hard. He seemed to be finally recovered when he finished with 90+ rushing yards in three of his final four games. However, a groin injury took him out of their 52-21 thrashing of rival Denver in the finale.

Unlike last year there is no Turner to fall back on. Darren Sproles is a hot change of pace running back. He is not a feature player capable of helping in offense in all phases including the inside run and blocking for pass protection. Tomlinson’s absence will throw a spotlight on a problem I think started in free agency. First they made no effort to lock up Turner, which I cited as a mistake then and now it looks like an even bigger one. I understand the salary cap, but he was younger than team icon Tomlinson who at 29 now is clearly on the downturn. This is not rocket science. Most running backs tail off as they near 30. The mistake was compounded when lead fullback Lorenzo Neal departed for Baltimore. Neal’s streak of blocking for a back gaining at least 1,000 yards was snapped when McClain had “only” 902, but the Ravens finished #4 in rushing and with McGahee (671) and Rice (454) the top three backs finished with 2,027 yards. How is mortgaging the future by drafting Jacob Hester out of LSU working out in the short term?

Now a lot of pressure is placed on the shoulders of Rivers at quarterback. He has played with a swagger not seen in professional sports these days and personally I love it. Many hate his demeanor, trash talk and arrogance. It is impossible to ignore the production. When Tomlinson became less of a factor Rivers picked up the slack this season with monster career highs in passing yards (4,009) and touchdowns (34) against only 15 turnovers. They were even 3-2 when he turned it over multiple times and 4-3 when he had 3+ touchdown passes. You can hardly blame Rivers for this team finishing just 8-8. The truth is, while they were unlucky losing to the Panthers on the final play and in the “Hochuli Bowl” to start 0-2 they also needed plenty of luck to win both games against the lowly Chiefs. If Kansas City had a better quarterback the Chargers might be sitting at home with a 6-10 record.

This game is obviously all about the quarterbacks. Manning is probably going to win the MVP for carrying his Colts from a 3-4 start to their sixth consecutive season with 12+ wins. The streak began with four wins over teams who finished 8-8 or better so while the tail end came against the likes of the Ohio teams, winless Detroit, struggling Jacksonville, and Tennessee’s backups people tend to forget the Colts knocking off 11-5 New England, #2 AFC seed Pittsburgh, Houston and of course San Diego. Their rushing woes put everything on the shoulders of Manning. He had only 3 interceptions in the second half of the season while throwing the ball 290 times and did not lose a fumble period. He fumbled only once while taking a ridiculously low 14 sacks. As a team the Colts had the fourth lowest total in that department. When the Chargers were able to upset this team in last year’s playoff Shawne “Lights Out” Merriman was part of a defense disrupting Manning’s timing. He basically missed the season with a knee injury and the defense struggled mightily without him. Among their failings is pass defense, a brutal #31 ranking thanks to giving up 247.4 yards per game. Addai is probably healthy enough to give Manning his outlet receiver and a little bit of rushing. This is going to be a shootout. Do you take the brash young gunslinger or the savvy veteran? Flip a coin. Mine came up Manning: Indianapolis 38, San Diego 31

Baltimore (11-5) @ Miami (11-5): The AFC games are both rematches, and were even played in the same venue. In this case, however, the first result was not close. The Ravens came to this stadium and blew away the home team 27-13 back in October. Rookie quarterback Joe Flacco and veteran Chad Pennington have been the catalyst for these teams. In that meeting I think both guys had unusual success. Flacco was amazingly accurate completing 74% of his passes and besting Pennington’s 69% which combined with his 295 yards were crazy good totals against Baltimore’s stingy defense. Flacco was sacked 3 times. Pennington went down once and had the game’s only interception. McGahee paced the running game for the Ravens with 105 yards. Their highly productive trio finished the season with 2,027 yards rushing and had 32 carries for 135 yards against the Dolphins. It was clearly the difference in the game. Miami’s “Wildcat” offense was still developing and their backfield duo of Ronnie Brown and Ricky Williams combined for just 43 yards on 17 carries with only 1 reception for a single yard.

In that meeting the story was really finishing drives. Miami had drives of 59, 24, 28, 56 and 27 yards during the first three quarters and out of that wound up with just two field goals. They marched 48 and 60 yards in the fourth quarter while facing a 14 point deficit which I look at as empty yardage because the defense was in “bend don’t break” mode by then. The word “empty” is actually very fitting. Can the Dolphins really crank it up and score on this dominant defense? Including the first meeting this team has had games scoring 14, 10, 17, 13, 17, 16, 16, and 14 points this season. If you count that up it is than half of their games, nine, and the team went 5-3 when their offense struggled. Their team had so much success because of the defense holding 10 teams below 20 points. In those games they were a perfect 10-0. There it is then, can Baltimore reach 20? The Dolphins have only won once when a team did that all season, a 38-31 thriller at hapless Kansas City in week 16.

I have a little secret to share with you. The Baltimore Ravens can score. They have put up 24+ points ten times this season and can you guess what their record is in those games? If you said 10-0 then pat yourself on the back. Their path to success is for their rookie Flacco not to turn it over multiple times. They are just 1-4 when he does. The Dolphins know all about protecting the football. Pennington has only 8 turnovers all season including a fumble lost in their finale, and has yet to turn it over more than once in a game as a Dolphin. Miami finished the season on a 9-1 tear after losing to the Ravens and Pennington passed for more than 235 yards only once in the second half of the campaign. Most teams love it when the quarterback is not forced to throw the ball a lot. He threw more than 30 passes only six times including the first meeting with Baltimore and the team was 3-3 in those games. It goes without saying they want to keep his pass attempts low. The Ravens are #2 in passing yards allowed per game (179.7) with an NFL leading 26 interceptions. Opposing quarterbacks complete an NFL low 52.3% of their passes against them. They are similarly stingy against the run.

Let’s be honest about what this game really is. Both teams struggled badly last year. Miami was worse at 1-15 and their only win came at the expense of Baltimore. There is bad blood because of words exchanged regarding Miami’s lack of talent by their head coach last year, Cam Cameron, who is now with Baltimore. Everything is on the table for a tightly contested, low scoring game. When the stakes are high what is the difference? It is most often defense for me. The Ravens are “only” 9-2 when they hold teams to no more than 13 points, but it will be their punishing running game that carries them. Eventually it will wear down the Dolphins. This is going to be a close low scoring game. It will take a while for Baltimore to take control. When they do I think it will turn into a bit of an avalanche. It might be just field goals they cash in, but it is going to be more than enough to win comfortably. By the way, the Dolphins’ last win over a team with a winning record prior to beating the Jets to clinch the division last week was way back in week 5 when they took out San Diego: Baltimore 22, Miami 12

Philadelphia (9-6-1) @ Minnesota (10-6): It’s funny. A little over a month ago I was sarcastically referring to a certain icon as “poor McNabb” considering he has only led his team to four conference championship games. His team was on the brink of falling off a cliff at 5-5-1, but I was very confident in his ability to lead them past the eventual NFC West champion Arizona who had not yet begun their late season swoon. The Eagles put them into that tailspin. They also put possibly the most talented team in the NFL, Dallas, out of commission with a 44-6 decision last week. The most impressive part of that win is doing it after looking lost on offense while losing 10-3 at Washington. There is the rub. They were on the road, where Baltimore recently thumped them 36-7 in a game where McNabb was famously benched. This is team is only 3-4-1 on the road including the crucial tie at Cincinnati which as it turns out was just as good as a win. Otherwise they are out of the playoffs at 9-7 and Tampa Bay is playing here in their place. Can this team get it done on the road? They won twice on the West Coast, and as a few teams (cough, Jets) found out those trips can be perilous. They also beat the Giants in their stadium late in the season. It’s a mixed bag really.

On the other side the Vikings have protected their home field with a 6-2 record. The first loss was a lifetime ago, or so it seems, when Manning led Indianapolis to a comeback 18-15 win. The second was just two week ago when Atlanta was just a little bit hungrier with a 24-17 win to work into the playoffs. Minnesota was then put into a bad position needing to win or have Chicago lose in order to clinch the NFC North. As it turns out both results went their way and it was an emotional lift to beat the Giants, who rested players, on a last second field goal. They finished the season on a 7-2 roll yet because the media is obsessed with covering the Dallas soap opera received very little attention down the stretch. On the season the Vikings were 3-3 against playoff teams, and 6-4 against teams who finished at least 8-8. In other words their schedule was no cake walk. The Eagles can relate to that in the rugged NFC East. They were 3-2 against playoff teams and 5-6 against teams 8-8 or better. Against strong competition the Vikings and Eagles are pretty even and equally tested despite the perception that the North is down and the East is so tough. Those statements are true, but it’s also true that the schedules just as difficult on each side.

A big factor is the health of Pat Williams on Minnesota’s defensive line. He will try to play and with him in the lineup this run defense is awesome. The truth is Philadelphia is not interested in running the football, particularly up the middle. Their offense is predicated on the short passing game and utilizing Brian Westbrook out of the backfield. Their running backs Westbrook and Correll Buckhalter have combined for just 309 rushes. In six seasons as “the man” Westbrook has averaged 200.2 rushes per season, but has caught 65.3 passes a season over that stretch. If you need more evidence this offense will not be running him a lot take a look at his rushing average at home (4.4) compared to the road (3.5) this season. The turf helps his game, but it will be in the receiving department.

Their other big weapon on offense is rookie receiver DeSean Jackson out of Cal. I have seen Jackson live on many occasions in college. He is an explosive threat and on this surface will be in position to make quite a few plays. However, he is the only player on this offense with 500 yards receiving this season. In fact this offense does not have a player with 1,000 yards rushing or receiving. Westbrook leads in rushing (936) and Jackson in receiving (912). I credit McNabb with holding it all together. He finished with a career high 3,916 yards passing and his most touchdown passes (23) since he had 31 in 2004 when Terrell Owens was on the roster. He did have 16 turnovers which isn’t a terrible number. It says a lot about him as a quarterback when that marks his highest total since his first full season as a starter way back in 2000 which was his second in the NFL. Only twice did he turn it over multiple times in a game this season. It came during the tie against Cincinnati and loss to Baltimore on consecutive weeks. Those games really woke him up. Down the stretch he had 9 touchdown passes against 2 turnovers as the team finished 4-1.

We know McNabb carries Philadelphia’s offense, and similarly one player is the catalyst for Minnesota. If you don’t think rushing success translates to winning just look at the statistics. Six of the top seven teams in rushing yards made the playoffs, and the exception was 11-5 New England. The anomaly would be the two worst (Indianapolis, Arizona) who are carried by their MVP caliber quarterbacks. “All Day” Adrian Peterson led the NFL with 1,760 rushing yards. He was probably underutilized as a receiver with just 21 receptions, but carried the ball at least 17 times in every game and ten times gained 100+ yards. Only one team, New Orleans, held him below 75 yards and the Vikings won that game 30-27 anyway. For Minnesota to be successful Peterson has to dominate. Part of that equation is breaking off a big run. When you look at last week’s line against the Giants you see 21 carries for 103 yards. What you don’t see is that other than scampering 67 yards for a touchdown he had 1.8 yards per rush on 20 attempts. Similarly against Chicago when you take away his big run of 59 yards in the home meeting the average is low (2.7) and throwing away the long gain on the road of 54 once again it is low (3.2). The Bears limited him to 139 yards on 48 carries in a pair of games, but those 113 yards hurt on two runs. Just like Barry Sanders back in the day he usually gets his big run. If the Eagles can take it away by tackling down the field he is not going to be dominant.

It will be tough for the Vikings to open up the field for that big run because the pass offense struggles. Tarvaris Jackson played pretty well in the final four games of the season including relief work at Detroit. He completed 64% of his passes with 8 touchdowns against 3 turnovers, two of which were lost fumbles in a loss to Atlanta. The past two games he passed for 233 and 239 yards. Veteran Gus Frerotte did not reach those totals in his six appearances after the bye week and had 8 turnovers in that span. The key here is that defensive coordinator Jimmy Johnson of Philadelphia will blitz freely in this game. Perhaps Minnesota’s only chance offensively is to catch them in one of those blitzes for a long Peterson run. In passing situations I have to think the Eagles are gong to come after Jackson and create sacks and turnovers. This will be a tight game. I like the experience of McNabb, who suddenly is playing with a chip on his shoulder, over the big running of Peterson. His stat line will again look like Barry Sanders in this one, but without the trademark long touchdown: Philadelphia 24, Minnesota 20