NFL Predictions - Week 16
by Gregory Cox
Director of NFL Analysis
12/18/08

Indianapolis (10-4) @ Jacksonville (5-9): Executives at the NFL Network must have been downright giddy to get this game figuring it would decide the AFC South. Instead Tennessee has long since clinched it. Even worse the Jaguars are totally out of the wild card race and relegated to a spoiler role. If this was a college football game the Colts would be worried. Thursday night, on the road, you know what I’m talking about if you watched Oregon State upset USC among other midweek shockers. In the first meeting Jacksonville took a then big road win. At the time it saved their season because few teams are able to recover from 0-3. It turned out to be just a stay of execution. The team clawed to 3-3 at the bye week, but exited with losses to the Ohio teams and until last week’s win over the Packers had yet to beat a team other than the still winless Lions since the week off. It has been a miserable, demoralizing stretch.

The Colts came out of their bye week and won two games, but promptly lost two on the road to drop their record to 3-4. I started discussing the possibility of them failing to win 12 games for a sixth consecutive season, but now the streak has a chance to stay intact. If Tennessee beats Pittsburgh the Titans will surely rest their starters in the final game or at the very least be disinterested in beating the Colts. Historically Indianapolis struggles to play outdoors, but most of that is in cold weather. They got a break from the league with two warm weather cities (San Diego, Jacksonville) on their post-Halloween slate. It hasn’t been easy, but they are 5-2 on the road with their biggest margin of victory 4 points. The Jags are an awful 2-5 at home although only two of the losses were by more than a touchdown.

On the injury front, Jacksonville will be losing free agent bust Jerry Porter at wide receiver. I just don’t know what David Garrard will do. Of actual importance veteran running back Fred Taylor is out. He will turn 33 next month and I have to wonder if the player not so affectionately labeled “Fragile Fred” early in his career is done. If so it has been a great career with 11,271 yards rushing. He has been a great tutor for Maurice Jones-Drew who has seen his average rush drop this season behind a weakened offensive line. The Colts will give up some rushing yards. On the flip side Jacksonville’s run defense has been better of late and it remains to be seen what kind of factor Joseph Addai can make returning from injury. I put this on Peyton Manning. The Jaguar secondary has allowed 22 touchdown passes, fourth most in the NFL. The Colts lead the NFL allowing 5 so don’t expect Garrard putting up silly numbers to save you in your FFL championship game. I don’t expect a blowout by any stretch, but the better team will find a way to get this done: Indianapolis 24, Jacksonville 21

Baltimore (9-5) @ Dallas (9-5): The Ravens feel robbed by a very close call. I can understand their frustration, but were they really counting on stopping the hypothetical fourth and inches? Believe me Mike Tomlin would not have kicked a field goal in that spot. However it happened, the 92 yard scoring drive has put their playoff future very much in doubt. There are three AFC East teams sitting on 9-5 with them plus the Colts at 10-4, possibly 11-4 by the time this game kicks off Saturday night for NFL Network subscribers to see. It might very well be three teams fighting for a spot behind Indy. Dallas knows all about struggling for a wild card. They are in a similar scramble with two NFC South teams at 9-5 plus Philadelphia (8-5-1) and Chicago (8-6) lurking.

The stakes are huge for both teams. Baltimore did not open the season with expectations considering they started a rookie quarterback, but Dallas was the Super Bowl favorite of many. Now those factors come into focus. Joe Flacco has been terrific. Let’s just not get carried away. He is nowhere close to an elite quarterback with just 180 yards passing per game and a turnover for every touchdown pass he has thrown, roughly one per game. The three times he passed for 200 yards came against the Colts, during a 31-3 loss with 3 interceptions, and both Ohio teams. To his credit all of those came on the road. This is a little different environment. He has been protected by the running game. Baltimore has run the ball 522 times, or 61 more than any team not also starting a rookie quarterback. The Dallas defense is going to be up for this game and will make him look bad.

If Baltimore wants to win it has to be a dominating performance from their defense and they can certainly pull that off at home, but on the road? They are only 4-3 and have already allowed 23, 31, 27, and 30 points in various games. As I have said many times it is harder to really shut a team down with smash mouth football on turf. The Dallas skill players will use their speed and get free for some big plays. Witten is tough enough to take a hit over the middle and while the Ravens are likely to hold a grudge against Owens, who spurned a trade to them a few years back, he will get his catches. Choice proved he can be productive against the stingy Pittsburgh and New York Giants defenses the past two weeks with 179 yards rushing and 130 yards receiving. Once the early slugging ends, it will be the Cowboys making plays on defense to set up their offense: Dallas 23, Baltimore 10

Cincinnati (2-11-1) @ Cleveland (4-10): It might be hard for teams out of the race to get motivated for a game late in the season. These teams are rivals and will be battling to the bitter end. The Browns won the first meeting 20-12 when both teams entered 0-3. The Bengals continued their losing ways and finished the first half 0-8. The Browns used that game as a bit of a springboard and for a while got back into the race at 3-4. In their last game of the first half it looked like they would level their record with a win over Baltimore, but fell apart. Since that meltdown the Browns have just one win, the infamous MNF victory over Buffalo where their GM let his fingers do the texting in a colorful manner.

The Bengals are 0-7 on the road and the Browns are 1-6 at home. Throw it all out. Third string Ken Dorsey has been totally unable to get Cleveland’s offense moving and without tight end Kellen Winslow it won’t get any easier. Jamal Lewis is still looking for his first game with 90 yards rushing on the season. The Bengals might have found their new running back. Cedric Benson has already given them three games with 20+ rushes even if his average is low (3.1). It’s not easy running when the opposing team is looking at Ryan Fitzpatrick at quarterback. Cleveland has scored 31 points in their past four games total while Cincinnati’s 20 points last week was an outburst after scoring 29 in their previous four. Even if both offenses have struggled this is one of those games where I wonder if either defense will show up. Cleveland has allowed 27+ points in five of their past seven. Cincinnati has given up 26+ eight times. Good fun for the viewer, not so much for those looking for top flight football: Cincinnati 27, Cleveland 23

New Orleans (7-7) @ Detroit (0-14): Is this finally the one? If you just look at the road and home records this very well could be. The Saints are 1-6 on the road and of course the Lions are 0-7 at home. No team has ever lost their first 15 games of the season. The stars are aligning though. Dan Orlovsky returned at quarterback as they tested Indianapolis and had his fourth consecutive pretty good game. He has thrown for 220+ and a touchdown in all of those games. On the downside can he really keep up with Drew Brees? There is still a slim chance for Brees to finish with the magical 5,084 yards passing if he goes off here. He is 752 yards short, but opponents complete a ridiculous 67.7% of their passes against this defense with 20 touchdowns against 4 interceptions. Their run defense is tied for dead last allowing 4.9 yards per carry. This is bad news considering Pierre Thomas has stepped nicely into the lead running back role with 189 yards rushing and 60 yards receiving over the past two weeks. Reggie Bush is out, but so what?

Can Detroit really win this game? Absolutely, but it has to start on defense. These guys have given up 25+ points to every team without a purple uniform this season. Nine teams have put up 31, which is a problem considering they have not scored over 25 yet. Rookie Kevin Smith can help keep the New Orleans offense on the sideline. He has 20+ carries in four of their past six games. I can make a case for them springing the upset, but it’s hard to keep a straight face while I’m doing it. The Saints might come out and struggle on the road as they have most of the season. I am going against that because it is a dome game. They are 6-2 indoors this year for a reason, and will add to the misery. I think we are heading for history: New Orleans 30, Detroit 24

Miami (9-5) @ Kansas City (2-12): If the Dolphins win the AFC East, they can thank teams from the West. Miami lost at Arizona 31-10 in week 2 before reeling off six wins against teams from the AFC and NFC West divisions. Perhaps the irony is that while the perception is warm weather when dealing with those divisions, instead the warm weather Fish play in their first cold weather game of the season. Previous road games at St. Louis and Buffalo (at Toronto) were in domes, much to the delight of the players who also drew sometimes cold weather New England and Denver in the first half. I guess the logic is to give a 1-15 team a few breaks in the schedule, but no one expected them to use those advantages to steal a division title. They closed out their home season last week with a 14-9 win over San Francisco marking their third consecutive game not allowing a touchdown. When it’s roughly 15 degrees can their defense be just as dominating?

The Chiefs come into this game without a win against a team outside of the AFC West since beating Cincinnati in week 6 of the 2007 season. Those are the kind of streaks that cost people their jobs and Carl Peterson fell on the sword. He will resign as GM at the end of the season, much to the delight of many fans of the Chiefs. I know because a lot of them email me frequently. This team is fighting to avoid losing 13 games for the first time in their rich history. Another 13 they would like to avoid is the record low in sacks since the season extended to 16 games. They have 9. When Chad Pennington is not bothered he will pick apart most defenses, and especially this one. He of course played in cold weather for the Jets under current KC head coach Herman Edwards. This is going to be a tough one on the players. On television viewers fail to realize how it feels to take a hit or throw a block in frozen conditions. Desire tends to play a big part in which team gets the edge.

Miami can’t score a lot of points, but their defense is brimming with confidence. Tyler Thigpen continues to dip back towards mediocrity although he has run for a solid 325 yards this season, most in the NFL at the quarterback position. A few meetings with Joey Porter might cause him to think twice about trying to scramble for a first down. I can’t see this inept Kansas City defense showing up. They gave it a go last week and almost upset San Diego before a colossal choke job at the end. It might have been their last stand. I think they quit once the Dolphins run left, right and up the middle for the first three quarters of a hard game to watch: Miami 20, Kansas City 9

Arizona (8-6) @ New England (9-5): How weird will it be for Matt Leinart to sit and watch his backup at USC Matt Cassel leading the Patriots toward a playoff berth? If there is a better example of how imperfect the draft prognostications can be I don’t know what it is. Cassel, as we have heard about a million times, never started a game at USC behind two Heisman Trophy winners. Leinart was one of them and was selected #10 overall in the 2006 draft. In the previous draft, dangerously close to Mr. Irrelevent was a certain Matt Cassel with the sixteenth pick of the seventh round. Famously Tom Brady went #199 overall in the sixth round and this was another stroke of genius. No one is ready to compare those two just yet, but in terms of value they were both great finds. Perhaps the hardest statistic for Leinart to stomach is that in his career (19 appearances) he has 3,237 yards with 13 touchdowns against 16 interceptions. This season in 14 games Cassel has 3,270 yards, 18 touchdowns and 11 interceptions. Never mind his two games with 400+ yards passing, something Brady has yet to do.

Kurt Warner is another huge story. He has won a pair of MVP trophies and just came off the bench to make the Pro Bowl at age 37. Never mind chasing the single season yardage record, a quest realistically over now considering he needs to average 397 yards in his final two games. Still, with 541 yards he will set a new career high. He is familiar with the Patriots who started their dynasty by upsetting his Rams in Super Bowl XXXVI. This time there is no Marshall Faulk in his backfield to keep the defense guessing. Arizona simply lines up and passes the football an NFL leading 40.0 times per game. Impressively, however, they also lead the NFL completing 68.2% of their passes as a team. Good luck with that holding up in blustery weather. Snow might fall and the temperatures will hover around freezing. Those are conditions for a team that can run the football. Last week the Patriots were incredibly efficient passing the ball at Oakland despite playing in a downpour. The only down side to that win was left tackle Matt Light getting hurt. There is no way to know if he will play, but his loss would be a blow.

I see no reason to believe the Cardinals can throw the ball all over the frozen field. There is always a chance rookie running back Tim Hightower has a huge game out of nowhere, but I prefer to deal in reality. New England’s offense is really amazing. They basically only utilized three running backs and two wide receivers the entire last week, but still put up 6 touchdowns and 487 total yards. Five players is all they really needed and the same might be true in this game. Their running backs are healthier than they have been as evidenced by Morris, Jordan and Faulk rushing 34 times for 269 yards last week. They are going to dominate this game. Arizona has really no motivation. There is a chance they can pass the NFC North winner for the #3 seed, but if they decided not to show up for their remaining games they are still #4. The Patriots are desperate and it will show: New England 34, Arizona 13

San Francisco (5-9) @ St. Louis (2-12): Both teams are led by an interim coach, but while the Rams have stayed in a funk under Haslett the 49ers are heading in the right direction under Singletary. San Francisco is 3-4 since he took over and quick frankly could easily be 5-2 with a better play call at Arizona and better red zone play at Miami. This is looking very much like a 7-9 team destined to be on the radar for a surprise playoff push in 2009. The only pushing St. Louis wants to do is against the door to leave the stadium. To their credit they have battled in their past two home games, losing 16-12 to Miami and blew a lead last week against Seattle. The 49ers are only 2-5 on the road, but have been competitive.

The first key is at running back. St. Louis is much better with Steven Jackson in the fold and San Francisco is more limited with Frank Gore out as I expect him to be. Shaun Hill has taken hold of the quarterback position for the 49ers who have been unsettled at the position really since Jeff Garcia was in uniform. Suddenly the Rams might be in a similar situation if Marc Bulger continues to struggle. He has only 20 touchdown passes against 34 turnovers since the start of the 2007 season, a span of 25 games. At 31 I would not consider him washed up, but it’s becoming obvious he misses the Mike Martz offense. Maybe he should walk across the sideline and convince his former offensive coordinator to come back.

In the last meeting San Francisco went on a wild second quarter spurt scoring four touchdowns and opened up a 35-3 lead before coasting home. Bulger had some numbers completing 34/53 passes for 295 yards and a touchdown, but threw two interceptions and was sacked 3 times. Steven Jackson did not appear in that game and will help the Rams avoid digging a big hole again. This is more of a feel pick. The 49er defense can contain the run, and their offense obviously knows how to beat this defense. I am seeing a different path to the same result even with Gore out and Jackson in this time: San Francisco 27, St. Louis 20

Pittsburgh (11-3) @ Tennessee (12-2): No one really expected the Titans to be having to fight for the #1 seed, but here come the Steelers ready to take it away. One of these teams will get the spot and it will be the fourth between them this decade. None of the previous three produced a Super Bowl title. Pittsburgh is trying to avoid a return trip by taking care of their business when Tennessee is down. Stud defensive tackle Albert Haynesworth is out. His absence weakens their defense tremendously. Teams just don’t run on them when he is in the lineup, but last year was a clear indication of his importance. He missed three games in November and they lost all the games by an average of 32-13. This season only one team has scored more than 21 points against them.

Pittsburgh’s weakness has been their offensive line, but their sheer toughness has compensated for it. Well, that and their stifling defense. It is not hard to reel off five wins in a row when other teams score a total of just 52 points. The Steelers are 8-0 when they allow no more than 13 points and 3-3 otherwise. The Titans are now 9-1 when teams fail to score more than 14 against them after last week’s 13-12 loss at Houston. Points are going to be at a premium. I like the running back tandem for Tennessee most of the time, but not in this situation. LenDale White is not going to do a lot of damage here and Chris Johnson’s speed will rarely come into play against the awesome Pittsburgh linebackers. If this game falls on the shoulders of quarterback Kerry Collins forget it. He has done a great job not screwing up, but three of his seven interceptions have come in the past two weeks. He has also been sacked just 7 times. The Steelers will get to him.

It is fitting to see the Steelers again in the way of the ex-Oilers as they try to win their first ever Super Bowl. If they want to get that ring I suggest playing this week like it’s Tampa Bay and the NFC winners are on the other sideline. This is it for them. Losing will mean an eventual trip to Pittsburgh where the Terrible Towels will be flying. They prefer the Music City, but it is not going to happen. The Steelers have the more poised quarterback, better defense and most importantly the momentum. The Titans are shaken up and primed to suffer another loss. They might lose next week too: Pittsburgh 20, Tennessee 13

San Diego (6-8) @ Tampa Bay (9-5): The Chargers were flat out jobbed by a bad call in week 2. I am going to bring it up every week and I am certain the NFL officials will be thrilled to either see them lose or Denver win this week to prevent next week’s Broncos at Chargers game from being meaningful. Instead of the teams being tied right now at 7-7 with this week’s game carrying no meaning San Diego is up against the wall and scoreboard watching in the afternoon to boot. It’s unfortunate, but mistakes are made. The Bucs could care less about the situation. They are focused on their own playoff chase. It was made official that defensive coordinator Monte Kiffin is leaving to join his son in the college ranks at Tennessee. I don’t think it was a coincidence that their defense has been shaken since rumors about his departure began. However, they are back at home where like every NFC South team they dominate. They are 6-0 and with Oakland next can smell a perfect home mark.

An interesting element is Phillip Rivers taking on this tough pass defense. He was stiffed for the Pro Bowl which in my mind is a complete farce these days anyway. Still, he might be trying to prove he deserved a spot. The Bucs are third in passing yards allowed (183.7) and interceptions (21) so it will not be easy. Rivers has already set career highs in passing yards (3,515) and touchdowns (28). Conversely San Diego’s pass defense is the second most generous in yards per game (243.6). They have given up the third most touchdown passes (23) and second highest completion percentage (68.5%). It would help the Bucs to get Jeff Garcia back in the lineup to take advantage of that although Brian Griese is capable too. Whoever gets the start will be getting the ball to Antonio Bryant who is white hot with 17 receptions for 308 yards and 3 touchdowns the past two weeks. If he is not the comeback player of the year I am grossly overlooking someone.

As much as San Diego has their back against the wall they have yet to come up big against a good team. Coming close is not enough and I expect the Bucs to take control of this game early and never let up. Rivers will struggle against this defense and probably turn it over in a key spot. This has the makings of an ugly game because Tampa Bay wants to run the ball and coast as much as possible. They need to get a comfortable lead though as Kansas City found out last week. This time the comeback falls short: Tampa Bay 23, San Diego 17

Buffalo (6-8) @ Denver (8-6): The Bills have fallen to pieces after their 5-1 start. Their only win since then has been at Kansas City, a 2-12 team. Last week they had a win in their sights until an ill-advised play led to a fumble the Jets brought to the house for the winning touchdown. Now Trent Edwards returns at quarterback. He was injured three weeks ago during a 10-3 home loss to San Francisco. If Buffalo wants to show up they can definitely compete in the spoiler role. Marshawn Lynch has rushed for 119+ yards in three of their last five games and the Broncos allow an NFL high 4.9 yards per carry. It will be cold at Invesco Field and both teams will be looking to run. Denver is back to Tatum Bell as their main man. He is one of five running backs to carry the ball at least 31 times this season because of injuries. Rookie fullback Peyton Hillis, currently on IR, is in line to lead the team with 343 yards unless Bell can catch him by rushing for 200 yards the next two weeks.

Having Jay Cutler around to throw the ball to Brandon Marshall and rookie Eddie Royal is a nice fallback if the running game stalls. He is on the verge of surpassing 4,000 yards passing and has already set a career high with 24 touchdown passes. The Bills are fifth in the NFL allowing just 14 touchdown passes and have a lot of talent in the secondary so the Broncos are best served keeping the ball on the ground as much as possible. Home field is actually not much of a factor. The Bills are 3-4 on the road and the Broncos are just 4-3 at home. However, while the records may not reflect it Denver is going to be fired up. This is not going to be another Oakland debacle. They do not want to be playing at San Diego in the finale for the AFC West title. Their urgency could be taken away if Tampa Bay wins, but still see them wanting to “win” the division: Denver 27, Buffalo 16

Houston (7-7) @ Oakland (3-11): The Texans want to finish with a winning record. The Raiders just want to be finished. Things are so bad in Oakland an assistant left the team to join fired head coach Lane Kiffin with the Tennessee Volunteeers. Interim head coach Tom Cable blasted the assistant for abandoning the offensive line, but who wants to stick around for this? The Raider offense has been hard to watch and the struggling line shoulders much of the blame. The visiting Texans have no such problems moving the football. Their issue is turnovers, 25 of them from their two quarterbacks. While they rank third in total yards (381.0) the team is only #18 in scoring. In the past four weeks it seems like Houston has figured it out. Three wins over losing teams was one thing, but last week’s 13-12 upset of Tennessee was huge.

Houston’s key is keeping their offense under control. There is no reason to force throws. Andre Johnson, Kevin Walter and Owen Daniels will tear up this defense much the same way New England’s Wes Welker and Randy Moss did last week. Rookie running back Steve Slaton is also likely to go over 100 yards for the fourth straight game. Oakland’s only shot is scoring on defense or special teams. They have two punt and two kickoff return touchdowns this season and those have helped them stay in a few games. Their offense is simply inept. By far their biggest threat in the passing game, tight end Zach Miller, is banged up. So is quarterback JaMarcus Russell, but the team has no other option. At times the running game has found a rhythm and Houston is vulnerable in run defense. I have to think the Raiders will come out with a run heavy game plan, but nothing they do seems to make sense. If they do score some points Schaub will have an answer: Houston 26, Oakland 15

NY Jets (9-5) @ Seattle (3-11): Two weeks ago I ignored New York’s struggles in California. They lost again and now stand 3-4 against teams from the West divisions, but 0-3 on the road. The big storyline is former Green Bay head coach Mike Holmgren and ex-Packer quarterback Brett Favre. The pair helped return that team to greatness in the 90’s and will forever be linked. This is almost assuredly the final time they will both be involved in the same game because Holmgren is taking next season off and Favre playing two more seasons is highly unlikely. Can Holmgren really ruin Favre’s playoff hopes? I know these guys are supposed to be professionals, but is he going to have the same killer instinct?

Perhaps totally overlooked is the Jones brothers lining up at running back for the respective teams. Younger brother Julius was signed by the Seahawks to help replace former MVP Shaun Alexander, but after opening the season with two big rushing games in September has gone over 61 yards just once since. He is now the backup to Maurice Morris. Older brother Thomas definitely has bragging rights. He needs only 114 yards to set a new career high and has already scored 15 touchdowns, by far his highest total. New York has a better run defense which slants the ledger even more towards Thomas. If Favre has to come to the rescue the Seahawks have allowed the sixth most touchdown passes (21) against the second fewest interceptions (6). They are by far the worst pass defense in the NFL allowing 260.9 yards per game although New York is the fourth worst (241.7). Seattle has gotten healthy at wide receiver and while Matt Hasselbeck is unlikely to play Seneca Wallace has been pretty good. He was especially sharp against New England with three touchdown passes and has only 1 interception over 174 pass attempts this season.

I am looking for this game to be touch and go for the Jets. They need it badly and a victory coupled with a Miami win would shut New England out of the division title race. Their home meeting with the Dolphins next week would decide the AFC East crown. Seattle can do some things. Deion Branch is back and rookie tight end John Carlson has been great all season. Even Bobby Engram is catching a few passes. New York fans should be very worried about this game. However, let’s not forget Seattle has not beaten a team outside the NFC West this season. When it comes down to it Favre will make the plays to get it done: NY Jets 26, Seattle 23

Atlanta (9-5) @ Minnesota (9-5): This is going to be an exciting game. The Falcons are battling for a playoff spot with rookie quarterback Matt Ryan. The Vikings are trying to clinch the NFC North behind a quarterback they benched earlier in the season Tarvaris Jackson. In the case of Jackson I think it’s a matter of overreacting to one outstanding performance. He was definitely in the zone at Arizona completing 11/17 passes for 163 yards and 4 touchdowns, but is that enough to put your season one the line with him at the helm? In reality the win was fueled by turnovers and a punt return touchdown to stake Minnesota to a 21-0 first quarter lead. Adrian Peterson did the rest. “All Day” will try to do the same this week against a defense allowing an NFL high 4.9 yards per carry.

I anticipate Atlanta countering with a lot of running as well. Pat Williams is out and his absence hampers a defense ranked first in the NFL allowing just 3.2 yards per carry. When both teams are able to run a little bit the respective quarterbacks will loosen up. I am more inclined to believe the Vikings will have success though, especially with the home crowd behind them. They are 5-1 on the road this season. Atlanta is just 3-4 on the road. “Matty Ice” drops 18 points on his QB rating when he is away from home. I can see Turner helping him with some hard running, but with 332 carries already under his belt I have to believe fatigue is setting in. he had only 228 heading into this season in four years of work for the Chargers. The pass defenses are similarly below average. Again, home field will favor Minnesota and a rookie quarterback is always vulnerable to crowd noise. Even without Pat Williams to stop Turner I like Peterson to win the rushing battle and help the Vikings sail to the North title. Very quietly this defense has not allowed more than 19 points since November 9: Minnesota 26, Atlanta 19

Philadelphia (8-5-1) @ Washington (7-7): The records are deceiving in this game. The Redskins are completely washed up while the Eagles are hot. Philly has won three in a row and while they need help can still get a wild card. Washington has won just once since Halloween, over 2-12 Seattle, and has fallen out of the picture. It is hard for me to see the home team competing here even if they come out fired up to ruin a rival’s playoff hopes. Washington’s offensive line is banged up and Philadelphia’s defense will take full advantage. As it is the Eagles are third in the NFL allowing just 3.4 yards per carry. Clinton Portis will not find much running room to work with. Maybe he should save his strength for the Pro Bowl.

Donovan McNabb faces a tough secondary, but injuries to star rookie Chris Horton and Shawn Springs weaken them considerably. Having players hurt late in the season is always a factor. It is much worse to combine those subtractions with a meaningless game against a motivated, hot opponent. The Eagles mustered just 254 yards in the first meeting and the Redskins won 23-17 thanks to Portis’ 145 yards rushing. Revenge is definitely in the air. It might be too late for the Eagles even if they are able to get by Dallas next week, but I certainly would not want to be looking at this team on the opposite sideline on Wild Card Weekend: Philadelphia 23, Washington 13

Carolina (11-3) @ NY Giants (11-3): This is not only the game of the week it is more than likely a preview of the NFC Championship Game. The winner will be hosting that rematch if it materializes. It is almost as if the media forgot the Panthers were rolling up wins. Then two weeks ago they ran over Tampa Bay on MNF and are now being called the possible class of the conference. New York would love to get that title back, but they are not at full strength. Losing wide receiver Plaxico Burress was a huge blow. Anyone who understands football realizes he changes the defensive outlook by stretching the field. His statistics are not as important as the actual impact on the field. Running back Brandon Jacobs is the best part of “Earth, Wind & Fire” by far. He is the player punishing an opposing defense, but obviously it took a toll on his body. There is a chance he plays in this game although I would not count on it.

For Carolina they are getting healthy at the right time. Their offensive line is dominating. DeAngelo Williams and rookie Jonathan Stewart have combined for 1,980 yards rushing and 23 touchdowns. Jake Delhomme is nowhere close to an elite quarterback at the moment, but because of the great running game has taken just 19 sacks. He also has big play receiver Steve Smith at his disposal. The Giants also have Steve Smith at receiver, but their guy is quite a bit less explosive. Eli Manning needs to take over and in the past two games has not done it. He is a combined 31/62, also known as 50%, for 314 yards in a pair of losses. He threw a touchdown pass in the loss to Philly and had two interceptions in the loss at Dallas.

At night under the lights New York is bound to be at their absolute best. Carolina has to realize this is their best chance because a return trip in the playoffs is even more daunting. It will be cold. The defenses will be forcing a lot of punts. When the dust settles on another NBC Sunday Night gem I am taking the healthier team on a roll: Carolina 23, NY Giants 20

Green Bay (5-9) @ Chicago (8-6): It is somewhat mystifying to watch the Packers fall so hard in the second half of the season. They entered their bye week 4-3 and have won only one game since. Of course, that win was a 37-3 blowout of these Bears. Chicago has surged back into the race by winning three of their past four games, but lost the biggest one of that set at Minnesota. It is now the difference between being a win away from locking down the NFC North and needing help to make the playoffs. Both of these teams have played their share of close games this season with very different results. In games decided by a touchdown or less Green Bay is 1-6 while Chicago is 5-4. Turning around three of those games for the Packers would have them in the mix, especially if one was a painful 28-27 loss to division leading Minnesota.

In that first meeting Green Bay had an easy go of it. This time Chicago will control the action by winning the rushing battle. Their run defense is better and rookie Matt Forte will do a lot of damage against a defense struggling against the run and ready to end the season. Rodgers has been a great quarterback on paper, but has not delivered in the clutch. Until he does I have a hard time backing him even if I believe he can flat out torch this Chicago pass defense. I also realize the playoffs might be out of reach if four favored teams win their games prior to this game on Monday Night. If that is the case Chicago loses a bit of their edge, but against a long time, bitter rival I think they have enough. They would love to hang loss #10 on the Packers: Chicago 24, Green Bay 21