NFL Predictions - Week 15
by Gregory Cox
Director of NFL Analysis
12/11/08

THURSDAY - New Orleans (7-6) @ Chicago (7-6): The Saints are on a bit of a downturn. In 2006 they ended their season in the NFC Championship at Chicago and lost 39-14. In 2007 they needed help to make the playoffs, but didn’t help their own cause by again losing at Chicago 33-25. Now in 2008 the schedule makers did them no favor by putting them in Soldier Field late in the season again. This isn’t the final game of their season either way, but it might as well be. Without drawing up the possibilities suffice it to say this is an elimination game at least where the wild card is concerned. The Bears are still just a game behind the Vikings in the North while the Saints are in last place in the South. If New Orleans is going to bow out it is fitting for them to do so on the road. To put their 1-5 road record in perspective, other teams with no more than one road win include Cincinnati, San Diego, Kansas City, Detroit, Seattle and St. Louis. Other than perhaps the Chargers I would not want my team on that list and their lone win was over the Chiefs. The Bears are 4-2 at home having lost to Tampa Bay (9-4) and Tennessee (12-1) in close games. When the weather turns it favors them.

Drew Brees wants to set the single season passing record. This is his toughest hurdle because of the elements. He needs to average 328 now, but in the past four weeks has averaged a much more mortal 279. Weather ruined Rich Gannon’s run when it rained in Oakland a few years back. It looks like it will just be very, very cold for this primetime NFL Network game. Chicago’s pass defense has been roughed up for the fifth most yards per game (234.2) but they have a respectable 15 touchdown passes allowed, 27 sacks and the second most interceptions (19) in the NFL. The Saints have thrived on protecting Brees. Only two teams have given up fewer than their 10 sacks and only once, a week 2 loss to Washington, has Brees gone down more than one time in a game. He has turned it over in bunches. Out of his 15 turnovers 11 of them came in four games, all losses, and three of those were on the road. Can the Bears get physical with the MVP candidate?

I think they can. Pierre Thomas has done a good job running the ball and now leads the team in rushing. He also went to college at Illinois and will be looking to impress friends and family. Reggie Bush is healthy and this offense can do some damage. They have done a better job running the ball of late, but the Bears are fourth in the NFL allowing just 3.5 yards per carry. A lot of my emphasis has been on New Orleans being able to move the ball against Chicago. The bigger factor is the other side of the equation. Kyle Orton has hung tough even while his team was blown out twice and last week had his best outing since October 19. Their rookie runner has his own motivation. He went to college at Tulane and was born in Lake Charles, Louisiana – Saints country. His strength has been a stable presence in the running game. Only Michael Turner and Adrian Peterson have more carries than him this season in the NFL. It’s tough for me to overlook the venue. The Saints can make some big plays even if their bones are frozen. The Bears will make the bigger plays and create the turnovers. They will also tighten up in the red zone, which I think will be the difference in an exciting game: Chicago 31, New Orleans 26

Tampa Bay (9-4) @ Atlanta (8-5): Last week was a great illustration of how big home field has been in the NFC South this season. The Bucs were locked in a low scoring struggle at Carolina, but in the second half as the points started flowing they were overwhelmed. The Falcons forged a 25-22 lead at New Orleans midway through the fourth quarter, but couldn’t hold it. Obviously Atlanta has an edge because they are the team returning home and unlike Tampa Bay do not have a short week. It will be hard for the Bucs to recover from the Panthers flat out running them over. It was borderline embarrassing. I am starting to wonder if the defense might have lost some swagger in the wake of widespread rumors longtime coordinator Monte Kiffin will be joining his son in the college ranks at Tennessee. This week is a similar challenge. After dealing with Williams/Stewart (1,840 yards rushing combined) they draw Turner/Norwood with their combined 1,699. Moving indoors helps. It is tougher to physically overcome a team on turf and is often more about speed.

We know the Falcons will be able to run the ball successfully. They were not able to do it in the first meeting when their backfield duo had 20 carries for 60 yards. Ryan had a pair of interceptions and Tampa Bay won 24-9. The rookie has only turned it over multiple times once more since that week 2 setback, that being a 27-14 loss at Philadelphia. In six home games he has only one turnover and hasn’t even fumbled much less lost one while taking a measly 2 sacks. Now we know why he is called “Matty Ice”. Perhaps it is fitting to see him take on Jeff Garcia in this spot. We’ll find out what he is really made of under pressure. Garcia has already put three teams into playoffs. Since taking over as the starting quarterback in week 6 he has only one interception and the two fumbles he lost came in a 38-20 win at Detroit. It is hard to believe he will turn 39 in two months. At 23 Ryan could almost be his son.

I am seeing a repeat performance. Atlanta runs the ball even more than Carolina. They average 34.8 rushes, second most in the NFL. If Tampa Bay’s defensive confidence is rattled, nothing will happen in this game for them to regain it. They can still defend the pass with the best of them, but keeping it close and winning are two different things. Home field is huge and in this division rules the day. The Falcons have given up their share of yardage in the passing game, but hold opponents to low completion percentage (58.1%) and touchdown passes (16). Their run defense is porous in average rush (4.9) but opponents only run the ball 24.7 times per game against them. Tampa Bay is also without their best rushers to take advantage. Cadillac Williams is a great story, but he’s not ready to take over a game. Warrick Dunn will be excited for his triumphant return after spending the past six seasons as a Falcon. He thrives indoors too. Can they shut down a dream season for the Falcons? It will be fun to find out. I can’t bring myself to go against so much home field advantage considering how beaten up the Bucs must feel right now. The Falcons are too giddy to realize the importance of this upset win, and it is a big upset: Atlanta 27, Tampa Bay 23

Washington (7-6) @ Cincinnati (1-11-1): I usually look for similarities in teams when deciding who will win a game. It might seem hard in this case, but actually not. The Bengals have been in a season long funk. However, since Halloween they are 1-3-1. The Redskins are actually worse (1-4) over that span. Dropping out of the playoff race has turned their biggest star, running back Clinton Portis, into a distraction similar to what Cincinnati wide receiver Chad Johnson has been. The differences start with motivation. Washington has four teams ahead of them for two available wild cards, but is still very much in the race. Cincinnati is only battling to hold the #2 overall draft position. Why win now? The Redskins come in with a 4-2 road record even after getting beaten up at Baltimore last week. The Bengals have already lost 24-7, 38-10 and 34-3 on their home field this season. In other words I don’t expect the venue to weigh heavily on this result.

Which offensive line will struggle more in this game? The Redskins are battered with injuries and have already allowed 34 sacks, tenth most in the NFL, so without Samuels and Jansen it could be difficult. The Bengals have allowed an NFL high 48 sacks and don’t have Levi Jones at their disposal. Then again, can either defense sack the quarterback? Cincinnati (13) and Washington (19) are second and fourth from the bottom in the NFL. Eight teams have at least their combined total all by themselves. When there is doubt the running game always will tell the story. Washington should stick with it. Cincinnati probably can’t even start it up. The Bengals will be reliant on Fitzpatrick trying to pass for over 170 yards for the second time this season. He hasn’t been terrible in relief of Carson Palmer, but Jason Campbell is going to outshine him here. This is a trap game for the Redskins, but when an opponent has lost by a total of 96-16 the past three weeks it is tough to pick against them: Washington 24, Cincinnati 13

Tennessee (12-1) @ Houston (6-7): The first meeting in week 3 really helped shape the remainder of the season for both teams. The Titans came in 2-0 yet still unsure of how good they were. The Texans were 0-1 coming off an unexpected by week. Tennessee won 31-12 and the rest is history. They have only lost once while Houston has sputtered to another disappointing campaign, needing to win this game to keep alive slim hopes of their first ever winning season. In that game the stats were even yet deceiving. Schaub had 188 yards passing to Collins’ 189, but a 3-1 edge in the interception line. The Titans had a 154-146 advantage rushing the football, but while their backfield duo took hold of the game with a combined 32 rushes the Texans got 50 of their yards on one long Slaton run. I am very intrigued with the rematch I must say. With very little fanfare the #3 offense in total yards will be taking on the #3 defense. In the city where the current Titans were once the old Oilers it would be sweet for the Texans to score an upset and if nothing else make them sweat for the #1 seed down the stretch.

If an upset is in the works it will start with the passing game. Schaub returned from a month off to torch the Packers at Lambeau Field. He was 28/42 for 414 yards to snuff out the playoff dreams of a team that had been pretty good in the pass defense department. Tennessee is really good. They rank behind only Pittsburgh and Baltimore with 181.4 yards per game allowed. They are second in touchdown passes given up (8) and fifth in interceptions (18). Against the run the Titans are seventh in yards per carry (3.7) allowed. Rookie Steve Slaton has been great for Houston and has for the moment made any fan of the team still upset about them not drafting Reggie Bush put those thoughts out of their mind. His past four games have been electric with 82 rushes for 479 yards. Amazingly his 1,024 rushing yards still have him third among rookies and this game won’t help his standing.

Turnovers were the story of the first meeting and probably will be this time around. Houston can’t stop the run and Tennessee will “Smash and Dash” their way to controlling the clock. Schaub will have a tough time getting into a rhythm. I have concerns about the Titans, but not against mediocre opponents. Coming off pummeling Detroit and Cleveland by a combined 75-19 their swagger has returned. This will be a tussle. Houston has momentum of their own with three straight wins, but none of those teams were in it. This is a chance for the Titans to lock down the #1 seed with a win and Baltimore taking out Pittsburgh. If both results go the other way the Steelers could wrestle it away next week. Make no mistake this is a crucial game for them: Tennessee 23, Houston 19

Detroit (0-13) @ Indianapolis (9-4): Everyone knows the Lions have the longest losing streak in the NFL at 14. It might be a surprise that the Colts have the longest winning streak at 6. Indy has been overlooked since their 3-4 start and while they will not win the South they are very much in the wild card race. How likely are they to blow it against a team chasing infamy as the first to ever finish 0-16? Let’s be realistic. Their offense is down this season, but has posted 30+ points three times at home. The Lions have not exactly been a scoring machine with a season high of 25 points.

Maybe the only interesting aspect of this game is Daunte Culpepper vs. Peyton Manning. The quarterbacks were nothing short of spectacular in the 2004 season when the rulebook turned in the favor of passing. Culpepper had 4,717 yards and 39 touchdowns passing with another 406 rushing. He didn’t win the MVP because Manning had 4,557 yards passing and then-record 49 touchdowns with only 11 turnovers. Maybe he’s still mad and ready to explode on the Colts. Well, the first part might apply. I’m sorry if I can’t focus on more of a breakdown here. Indianapolis is starting to build towards a possible playoff push. Detroit is looking like a team more suited for the upcoming UFL. How are the Lions going to score against a team that has allowed 4 touchdown passes all season? Detroit has 7 rushing touchdowns so either way they are in trouble. Warm up the kicker. On the other side forget it. The Colts will score at will. They are too experienced to lose focus at home in a game like this: Indianapolis 31, Detroit 6

Green Bay (5-8) @ Jacksonville (4-9): This is without a doubt the Disappointment Bowl. The Packers were 13-3 last year and fell a play or two short of the Super Bowl. The Jaguars were 11-5 and scored a road playoff win. Both had high hopes and neither can finish with a winning record. The only question here is which team has more pride. Jacksonville’s problems are many, but how about a 1-5 mark at home? The lone victory wasn’t even impressive. It was 30-27 in overtime over Houston. Even if Green Bay has lost five of their past six games their defeats were almost all excruciating. Four of them were by a total of 11 points. Since winning the opener 24-19 over Minnesota the Packers are 0-5 in games decided by one score. Aaron Rodgers has stood up on the stat sheet ranking sixth in yards passing (3,192) fifth in touchdown passes (22) and eighth in QB rating (92.1) in the NFL. Obviously he has yet to master the art of clutch close wins.

The biggest issue for the Packers is stopping the run. Jacksonville probably will not have veteran Fred Taylor, but that might not be such bad news. Jones-Drew has twice carried a decent load with 19 and 22 carries this season and wound up with 107 and 125 yards respectively. The Jags won both games over Indianapolis and Denver. If the home team starts to run the ball they might hold the momentum throughout. Rodgers should be able to do some damage though. Only two teams have allowed more passing touchdowns than Jacksonville and 23 sacks wasn’t exactly what they had in mind after taking two pass rushers in the first round of the draft.

If Green Bay can pass and Jacksonville can run who wins out? I think the offenses do. Garrard hasn’t lived up to his contract yet, but if he can avoid taking 3+ sacks like he has suffered in six of the past seven games there is a chance he throws for 250+ to keep his team in a high scoring game. I did say high scoring. Ryan Grant has been a disappointment, but so has the Jacksonville defensive line. Late in the season with very little on the line defenses tend to give up a bit. The Packers are still in it and the Jaguars are at home. It’s not a ton of motivation. Offense should rule and I’m more comfortable with the better one: Green Bay 34, Jacksonville 27

San Diego (5-8) @ Kansas City (2-11): I have run out of words to describe the disappointment with the Chargers this season. I expected the Chiefs to struggle and the only surprise has been a surge starting the weekend before Halloween. Even though they are 1-6 over that span only two of those losses were by more than 7 points. Remember, San Diego was on a 1-5 skid before beating up Oakland last week. Then there is the matter of the teams meeting a few weeks ago during this stretch. San Diego won 20-19 after stopping a two-point conversion in the final minute. Arguably Thigpen outplayed Rivers with a 3/0 touchdown/interception performance to 2/2, but of course winning is the ultimate measuring stick for quarterbacks.

As poorly as things have gone for the Chargers they are still 3-1 against AFC West competition and should be 4-0 if not for a blown call against Denver. Their 1-5 road record is a red flag, but one win was taken from them and all were close. One was of course in London against New Orleans. The Chiefs have been erratic at home. They lost by double digits to Oakland, Tennessee, Buffalo and New Orleans while beating Denver and nearly upsetting Tampa Bay. As teams have gotten film on Thigpen his success has waned. In his past four games he has thrown for an average of 206 yards with 6 touchdowns against 5 turnovers and 9 sacks. I just wonder how much fight the Chargers have in them. Do they believe the division can be stolen at 8-8? They had a few extra days to get motivated. The Chiefs did put up a fight at Denver after beating Oakland in consecutive road games, but in their last home game were hammered 54-31 by a Buffalo team that has fallen off the map in the past two months.

There was a time fantasy owners would be glued to this game watching LT and LJ. Tomlinson has 1,256 total yards while Johnson has 749 with a few games missed. Both have had multiple seasons with 2,000 total yards and touchdowns galore. They are both 29 and on the brink of the age most backs decline. This might be the last time we see them suit up against each other with a chance to shine. I favor Tomlinson because his team has no other options. The Chiefs might try to involve rookie Jamaal Charles. One big stat jumps out at me and it’s sacks. Kansas City has an NFL low 6. If they doubled it, they would still be dead last. If Rivers isn’t harassed he will tear them up, even if it means a dump pass to Tomlinson. Gates won’t stay asleep forever. Speaking of which, with Gonzalez possibly on the move this is also likely the final great showdown of two elite tight ends. Rivalry games are tough to call, but the better offense wins this shootout: San Diego 31, Kansas City 24

San Francisco (5-8) @ Miami (8-5): If the 49ers aren’t careful they will be picking outside of the top 10 in the draft. I know the West divisions in both conferences have taken some heat for being weak, but San Francisco has just beaten two AFC East opponents and is trying for three in a row here. Their only loss in the past four weeks was at Dallas and they were competitive in the first half in that one. The Dolphins are on an even bigger role. Things are going so well they even win in Canada. Their current 6-1 run started and ended with wins over Buffalo which is the difference between being a last place team and tied for the division lead. A lot of people are dismissing the 49ers and next week’s trip to Kansas City by prematurely giving Miami a big edge in the AFC East race. Mike Singletary has his team ready to play.

I still have to rub my eyes when I see the Dolphins where they are after going 1-15 last year. Quarterback play under Pennington and defense have carried them. The defense has held eight opponents under 20 points this season. Miami is 8-0 in those games. They are 6-1 when Pennington has zero turnovers. San Francisco is trying to get that going having held three of their past four opponents to a total of 33 points. They also have won all three starts under Hill dating back to last season when he hasn’t turned it over. This actually should be a tight game between fairly evenly matched teams. I know, it’s blasphemy to say that unless you have watched some AFC East football this season. The Dolphins are only 4-3 at home including getting their helmets handed to them in their last home tilt against New England. The 49ers are now 2-4 on the road after winning at chilly Buffalo. Call it a defensive struggle and the team that needs it more pulls it out. Porter should create some havoc while Pennington keeps his cool which shifts the turnover edge to the home team: Miami 20, San Francisco 13

Buffalo (6-7) @ NY Jets (8-5): The wheels have really come off for the Bills. They can blame the schedule makers I guess. Early in the season they were loaded up against opponents from the West divisions. As the season has progressed those divisions really struggled. Buffalo opened the year 5-1 but they were 2-1 against the NFC West, 2-0 against the AFC West and had not played a divisional opponent. Their slide began when those foes came knocking. Losses to all three in a row began their current 1-6 funk. Other than hanging a 54 at Kansas City and 27 against Cleveland the offense has been lost. The other five games have produced an average of 9.8 points and their last touchdown was before Thanksgiving. New York knows about falling from grace too. They were staring at a walk to the division title, but instead were humbled at home by Denver and then at San Francisco. However, since losing in week 2 to New England they have not lost to any team outside of either West division. I guess that makes them the anti-Bills. They won the first meeting in Buffalo when the Bills pretty much gave the game away with mistakes.

Any team interested in J.P. Losman will be tuning in to watch this game. His price tag will probably drop if the past two outings are any indication. He wasn’t able to drive for the tying touchdown despite multiple chances against San Francisco. Last week against Miami in Toronto he was 13/27 for 123 yards and a pair of turnovers in a 16-3 loss. The notorious wind in this stadium won’t help. Lynch has been erratic in his second season and with a stout run defense keying on him forget it. Teams are rarely held without a touchdown for long in the NFL, but this could be three games in a row. Favre is back to his poor touchdown/turnover ratio with a 20/17 margin this season and his yardage is on pace to be his lowest since 2003. However, the team is leading the division even if Laveranues Coles is unhappy with his role. I might be too after catching 3 passes for 7 yards in the past two games. Coles has 620 yards receiving in 13 games after picking up a similar 646 in 12 games last year while the team was playing musical quarterback. He’ll get over it and New York will ride their defense and running game to an easy win: NY Jets 23, Buffalo 6

Seattle (2-11) @ St. Louis (2-11): I’m all for canceling this game. Call it a 0-0 tie and spare the fans of both teams. How bad are the Rams? They have been outscored by 17.3 points. The winless Lions have been outscored by 14.9. As poorly as the Seahawks were playing during their 1-5 start they managed to rout St. Louis 37-13. Despite also losing their past six games at least four of those were by a combined 14 points including last week’s heartbreaker when a lead against New England slipped away. The Rams have lost nine times by 17+ points this season. Four of those were at home. The road has been tough on the ‘Hawks at 1-5 including dismal showings in the east.

This is an emotional game. Mike Holmgren will be imploring his team to play hard in his final season at the helm. They have been through a lot together. Jim Haslett has a similar speech in mind as he hopes his team can help him secure the head coaching position next season. Seattle has their offense going now. Branch woke up last week and Hasselbeck passed for over 190 yards for the first time since Christmas 2007. If the running game can pick it up they should win this game easily. St. Louis counters with Steven Jackson and he can single handedly keep them in it. For a while he does, but the pride kicks in for the visitors: Seattle 27, St. Louis 17

Minnesota (8-5) @ Arizona (8-5): The Vikings have a dark cloud following over their head. If the suspensions for Kevin and Pat Williams ever do come down their defense is in trouble. For now it is just a bizarre distraction. They were able to survive at winless Detroit last week, but had to do so behind backup quarterback Tarvaris Jackson. During their 0-2 start Jackson was the man. He was benched for going 30/59 for 308 yards with a touchdown pass and two turnovers. Last week he was 8/10 for 105 yards and a touchdown. This is their road finale and pivotal in their quest to win the NFC North depending on if the Falcons or Giants are motivated to play hard depending on their own playoff situation. The Cardinals are in it. They have locked up the West. This could ostensibly be a battle for the #3 seed as it turns out. By winning they can take a big step towards earning that spot and possibly avoiding the Giants in the divisional round.

I am pretty sure the Williams duo is going to play and if they do forget about the Cardinals bothering to run. They have done very little of it this season and why test a team allowing an NFL low 3.2 yards per carry? Kurt Warner is trying to challenge Dan Marino’s single season passing record. If he gets it there is a good chance he will get into the Hall of Fame because it’s the kind of thing people remember along with two MVP trophies and a Super Bowl ring. Jared Allen has the Vikings fourth in sacks (37) but on the road it is always tougher to get at the opposing passer. Arizona is 5-1 in their new stadium having lost only to the Giants 37-29. Even with teams passing on them a lot Minnesota is fourth in the NFL with just 12 touchdown passes allowed. They have held four straight opponents under 20 points and only five teams have scored more than 21 on them this season. Arizona’s defense has been touched up for 56, 37 and 48 although two of those were on the road.

I like Warner to ride his home field advantage. The Cardinals should get three receivers over 1,000 yards if Breaston can pick up 137 yards in the final three games. As mostly a third receiver he has 6+ receptions in eight of their past ten games. Without Frerotte at quarterback Arizona can load up to stop Adrian Peterson. They already have a decent run defense as it is. Jackson turns it over and Warner cashes in: Arizona 23, Minnesota 17

Pittsburgh (10-3) @ Baltimore (9-4): I am sore just thinking about the hits in this game. The first meeting in Pittsburgh went to overtime. The Steelers won 23-20 despite finishing with only 11 first downs in a game with 480 total yards between the teams. Forget any sort of statistical analysis. These defenses are nearly identically nasty across the board. The Ravens are 5-1 at home having lost only a tough 13-10 decision to currently 12-1 Tennessee in week 5. The Steelers are 5-1 on the road. Their loss was 15-6 at Philadelphia way back in week 3. This is going to be good. Who hits harder? Which team can stay healthier during the game?

Roethlisberger has survived 38 sacks including eight in the aforementioned loss to the Eagles and five last week. Pittsburgh’s offensive line has been a definite weakness. Willie Parker missed the first meeting and watched his replacement, rookie Rashard Mendenhall, suffer a season ending injury against the Ravens. Speaking of rookies, quarterback Joe Flacco has been carried by this dominant defense and running game. He has done an excellent job of protecting the football. When he has 2+ turnovers the team is 1-3. The magic number for him is 26 passes. When he stays at that number or below the team is 6-0, and when he goes over they are 3-4. Their running game has an advantage being at home and because three players get involved. McClain, McGahee and Rice have no fancy nickname, but all have 450+ yards rushing. It’s a big factor in a game like this where the last team standing wins. I think the Ravens need another kicker with a longer range to replace the reliable short kicker Matt Stover. It might cost them here: Baltimore 14, Pittsburgh 12

Denver (8-5) @ Carolina (10-3): Sometimes I look at a game and immediately have a strong opinion. This definitely falls into that category. The Broncos have won four of five and are on the brink of wrapping up the AFC West, but are hoping cell phone salesman and bag thief Tatum Bell can again lead them in rushing as he did in 2006. He only needs 244 yards to surpass rookie fullback Peyton Hillis for that honor. Hillis is one of several rushers out of the mix due to injury. This is particularly bad news because the Panthers just showed a national television audience their running game is in high gear. The Broncos allow 4.9 yards per carry, third most in the NFL. It is hard to imagine them holding down Stewart and Williams. Meanwhile the Panthers should be able to focus on the passing game because while Bell has sneaky speed while holding someone else’s bag it is doubtful he can break loose here.

Cutler does give Denver a chance passing the football. Star rookies Ryan and Flacco, record chasing veterans Brees and Warner, and headline stealing Favre, Pennington and Rodgers have dominated the quarterback talk. Quietly Cutler is third in the NFL with 3,679 yards and fourth in touchdown passes (23). Turnovers are naturally his weakness as is the case with most quarterbacks. The team is 0-5 when he has at least two and of course 8-0 when he does not. Delhomme on the other hand has been able to pretty much sit back and watch the team run to victory. Since the bye he has thrown for over 180 yards only once in five games, but it was the team’s only loss. This is probably a good time to mention the Broncos have only 5 interceptions on the season, worst in the NFL if you don’t count Detroit. Carolina has earned respect after smashing past Tampa Bay on MNF. This is a team to be reckoned with.

I think this is a straight replay of last week for the Panthers offensively. They are going to run the ball early and often. Garcia had 321 yards passing against them and it mattered little. The Panthers should force turnovers because their attention can shift to Marshall and Royal when the front line contains Bell. It is worth noting that while going 4-2 on the road Denver has one of just two wins on the field of an NFC South team this season. The Panthers are trying to close out a perfect home season and still have a shot to earn home field throughout the playoffs. They have more at stake and will slug this out: Carolina 27, Denver 20

New England (8-5) @ Oakland (3-10): This game is overshadowed by the passing of Matt Cassel’s father. It is hard to break down a game when a key player’s status is uncertain. It is even harder because my goal is to decide who wins a football game when in the grand scheme of things he should be with his family instead of playing. This clearly brings back memories of when Favre showed up at this very stadium to play the Raiders days after his father passed. He lit up the sky with 399 yards and his Packers won 41-7. I don’t expect any heroics like that here. Oakland is a tough team to figure out lately. They have given fits to the AFC East though. The Bills and Dolphins beat them on late field goals in their stadiums. The Jets were not as lucky and lost in overtime. As feisty as this team can be, when last seen they were thumped 34-7 in San Diego. The extra few days might have stirred up some memories of the “tuck” game, but those players are long gone.

The Patriots have done an excellent job running the football and it has been overlooked because Cassel has thrown for 3,052 yards replacing Brady. The other ignored stat is that he has only 14 touchdown passes against 14 turnovers. Nine of those touchdown strikes came in three games, his only multiple touchdown pass outings. They have the extra advantage this week of having Moss and Jordan explaining how this defense operates. Both were Raiders in 2006. Oakland has a lot of trouble moving the ball. New England’s defense isn’t what it used to be. Or maybe it is now that Colvin and Seau are back at linebacker. They have been giving up points in bunches, notably 29.0 over the past four games. It might be shocking to learn New England has given up 24 touchdown passes, second most in the NFL. The Raider offense has an NFL low 7. I’ll choose the weak defense because Russell’s confidence is shaken. Rookie Kevin O’Connell would struggle mightily and the Patriots probably lose if he plays. Asomugha against Moss will be interesting, but Welker should do plenty of damage. More than any analysis I believe the Patriots really don’t like the Raiders. It will play a big part in the margin of victory: New England 23, Oakland 9

NY Giants (11-2) @ Dallas (8-5): This is just a hunch, but I don’t think either team spent too much time watching tape from the meeting on November 2. The Giants won 35-14 when the Cowboys were forced to use Brad Johnson and Brooks Bollinger at quarterback. The duo went 14/27 for 134 yards and three interceptions. Their leading rusher that day and this season Brandon Jacobs probably will not appear in the rematch either. These are huge differences. New York still has two good running backs as Ward and Bradshaw have combined for 988 yards. How many teams can say that for their second and third rushers? The change is in how much the opposing defense is punished which is Jacobs’ specialty.

As for Romo, he is 7-3 as a starter this season and while he probably wouldn’t have led them past the Giants certainly his presence would have overturned a rout loss at St. Louis. If they miss out on the playoffs that loss might be the reason. Or his three interceptions last week at Pittsburgh which hurt a bit too. Then there is the matter of their leading rusher Marion Barber. His toughness was questioned by the team owner after missing the game against the Steelers. Rookie Tashard Choice came up huge with 166 total yards on 28 touches against an elite defense. The Giants are vulnerable on defense a bit because of the distraction caused by the shooting incident. Last week Philly went right at linebacker Antonio Pierce with success. Can the Cowboys repeat the process?

This is an emotional rivalry game. Dallas is 5-1 at home. New York is 5-1 on the road and last year of course ruled the road. It will be strength against strength, but the Cowboys are the team with everything at stake. Their fans will push them over the top in primetime. The Giants miss Burress even if some writers want to gloss over his absence from the offense. Owens is the big player on this stage and unless he has an accident with a firearm prior to kickoff should be the difference: Dallas 26, NY Giants 22

Cleveland (4-9) @ Philadelphia (7-5-1): Will this be another dud on MNF? Can the Browns pull off another upset to rock the NFC playoff picture? These are questions only a few lonely people have. The rest of us will probably be asleep by halftime. Residents of Hawaii might even be among them. Cleveland is not doing much to save Romeo Crennel’s job having lost five of their last six games. The past three have featured a whopping six field goals and no touchdowns on offense. Philly has been on a different path. Two wins over division leaders have kept their wild card hopes alive.

The Eagles can shut down the run and the Browns really can’t run the ball. Who is their quarterback these days? Oh yeah, Ken Dorsey. The third stringer was 22/43 for 150 yards with an interception last week at Tennessee. It will seem like a picnic compared to what Philadelphia’s defense will do to him. This is not a fair fight on any front and will be very hard to watch. McNabb has his team ready for a playoff push: Philadelphia 34, Cleveland 10