NFL Predictions and Analysis

Director of NFL Analysis

February 2, 2010

I have never proclaimed to be great picking against the spread or over/under, but generally speaking I tend to be close when it comes to prognosticating. The championship games were a perfect example of why that sometimes has nothing to do with winning imaginary bets. With 9 minutes remaining in the AFC affair, the Colts were leading 20-17. I picked them to win 21-16. With 5 minutes left later on in the NFC tilt, the Saints led 28-21. I had them winning 28-24. Now obviously there was plenty of time for both teams to score more points, but it is also not unheard of for games to go scoreless for long stretches as well. I went from 4-0 against Vegas to 0-4 over those painful final minutes. It was particularly frustrating because it cemented my status as a loser for the season. Against the spread I am now 135-139-3 and on the over/under I stand at 129-132-5. The best I can do is finish up -5. It was sweet to sweep straight up because I rarely pull that off in the title games. I upped my mark to 181-85 (68%).

Peyton Manning/Drew Brees

New Orleans (16-3) vs. Indianapolis (17-2): Let’s stick to the stuff ESPN has yet to beat us to death with. Strangely enough, if someone had said to us on December 15 this would be the Super Bowl pairing impartial fans had to feel downright giddy about it. Two teams sitting on 13-0 records hooking up for all the marbles in a league where #1 seeds always get knocked off in the playoffs? Self-inflicted losses by the Colts and a slump from the Saints left most people thinking we might see Dallas or Minnesota take on San Diego. Momentum took a backseat when the playoff lights were turned on though, and rust proved to be irrelevant.

One thing that has me a little concerned about Indy taking home another title is not having faced anywhere close to an elite quarterback in these playoffs. Tanking against the Jets really set things in motion for them because New York went on to knock out their nemesis, the Chargers, and the man who replaced Drew Brees – Philip Rivers. Maybe they win anyway, but their defense proved very little stopping teams led by rookie Mark Sanchez and second year man Joe Flacco. Those guys might have neat nicknames (Sanchise, Joe Cool) but neither could match punches with Manning. If you look back on their season, the last quality quarterback they faced was Houston’s Pro Bowl MVP (thanks to a few guys bowing out) Matt Schaub way back on November 29. Other than those meetings with the Texans the only standout quarterbacks were Arizona’s Kurt Warner (31-10 win) and New England’s Tom Brady (35-34 win). Warner had 332 yards, but 2 interceptions. One of them helped keep the Cards in a 21-3 halftime hole. Brady passed for 375 yards and 3 touchdowns. His Pats lost when the head coach decided their defense would not hold up by calling for a now famous fourth down attempt that failed. Those are big numbers and while the Colts have held up in the secondary even playing with rookie cornerbacks a lot of it came against guys incapable of burning them.

For as much credit as the Colts get for their defense, and it has held up pretty well, they finished the regular season giving up a healthy 126.5 yards per game and 4.3 a carry. The Saints were right with them (122.2, 4.5) and people expecting a 42-38 shootout better be prepared for both teams coming into this game intent on running their way to the Lombardi. It is going to be easier for Indianapolis to keep the ball in Manning’s hands against a defense that gave up bunches of passing yards all season (235.6 per game). New Orleans was able to keep winning because opposing quarterbacks had the fourth lowest completion percentage (57.5) so sustaining drives was tough, and a 15/26 touchdown to interception ratio. They thrived on turnovers and it was never more evident than their win over the Vikings. I don’t think anyone believes the better team won that game. The Saints scored a touchdown every time their offense moved the ball more than 9 yards in a drive. It was three times (76, 64, 37). Their opponent came up empty on drives of 33 (punt) 64 (fumble) 56 (interception) 70 (fumble) and 41 (interception). That’s 254 yards of marching for zero points. Never mind another fumble leading to the go ahead touchdown from 7 yards out. So much went right for them to win and I have to wonder if their luck has run out. Indy is not going to fumble 6 times and commit 5 turnovers.

Here is how I am looking at this. Peyton knows his legacy is at stake. We will never know the true impact of Spygate, but has a team ever flustered him as much his entire career as those guys did in the 00’s? I think not. It is no coincidence. Tracing the seasons when those teams were directly responsible for their demise it certainly took away from championship opportunities. Would the Colts have gone into Pittsburgh and won the AFC Championship game a year before their shocking loss to those same Steelers at home? It is likewise impossible to know how they might have fared against the Eagles. However, the previous season a win over the Pats would have put them in the Super Bowl where the Panthers waited. Perhaps they might have won that one and the experience might have catapulted them to another title the following year and even another after that (XL) for an unprecedented three-peat. Am I saying they were robbed of two or three more titles? Robbed is too strong of a word, but deprived of a legitimate chance.

Back to the field, no one stops Peyton now. If his running backs show up their offense can only be stopped by turnovers. The Jets were a force on defense. Long forgotten in all the hoopla, their unit held these Saints to 17 offensive points back in October. Brees was 20/32 for 190 yards and no touchdowns in that game. Manning just went 26/39 for 377 yards and 3 scores with everything on the line. Half of his team has been through this before and will not fold under the pressure. The only guys I am worried about are his young receivers Garcon and Collie holding onto the ball. They were fantastic when last seen, and needed to be because of the “Revis Island” factor. Now, the emphasis should shift back to Wayne and Clark getting more receptions and turning in the big plays. This is awful news for Saints fans.

The Dwight Freeney factor has been a blessing for the favorites. Everyone is talking about his injury and focusing on it as opposed to other possible distractions. In a way he sucked all of the pressure onto himself and away from his teammates. When it comes to his impact, or lack thereof, on the field it is hard to say. Maybe he has a tougher time applying pressure on Brees and the young corners have a long night trying to cover. Maybe he does was Dallas’ DeMarcus Ware did, playing huge in a big win. The crowd noise is gone on both sides, a fact I have really not heard anyone discuss. These dome teams are different outdoors. The offensive lines should hold up a little better as a result. New Orleans wants to batter Manning like they did Favre. I talked about the Colts beating young quarterbacks in the playoffs. Well, the Saints were able to put two veterans into retirement. Warner has already announced it and Favre might soon. Manning possesses all of the football knowledge and ability to get the ball out a little sooner, avoiding the big hits.

Ultimately, this is not going to live up to the press clippings. It is even possible neither team tops 30 points to be honest. Indianapolis will be methodical on offense. When they get close enough to score their kicker is a veteran (Stover) and their quarterback is one of the best finishers ever. New Orleans has done most of their quality running late. I think it is a bit misleading how successful they have been on the ground. Bush made two big plays against the Cards when the defense and special teams respectively parted for him. He is not going to be a factor. Thomas should run hard and possibly even crack 100. Brees is going to force one throw he should not and get his underdogs in a hole. That is not a place you want to be against a team with a killer instinct. This is a powerful AFC team we are talking about. They might not have had to knock off their stiffest competition in the playoffs, only beating a pair of wild cards, but the Colts are dominant. The pressure will be applied and I don’t think there is a rally on this field for the Saints as there was in the regular season against the Dolphins.

Look for the teams to trade long drives out of the gate and wind up tied 7-7 after the first quarter, with a punt on one side mixed in. The Colts will continue scoring, but it will be field goals while the Saints answer with a big play touchdown to get ahead 14-13 into halftime. Out of the break, Brees will force a throw and turn the game around. Indy’s touchdown off the turnover puts them up 20-14. After a punt, another long field goal drive makes it 23-14. Heading into the fourth quarter New Orleans is going to be frustrated on offense, missing a long field goal and punting along the way. Indianapolis cashes in the “dagger” touchdown with about six minutes remaining to go up 30-14. New Orleans goes right down the field for a score of their own and converts for two points making it 30-22. The crowd goes wild, but after a failed onside kick all that is left is running out the clock on another Lombardi for the Manning family: Indianapolis 30, New Orleans 22 (IND -4.5/under 57)

NFL Predictions and Analysis - Super Bowl