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The
Patriots: This Year's
Most Overrated Team
by Bill
Chuang
Head
Columnist
This year, there is
no clearcut most overrated team. Before all the preseason
rankings started coming out, I thought I would be writing this article
about the Baltimore Ravens as the most overrated team. After all
they had the most overrated rookie quarterback last year in Joe Flacco,
but calmer heads have prevailed and most preseason rankings put the
Ravens around ninth best which I think is about right.
 Just for the record, I got to say I'm pretty good at
this. 3
years ago, for my inaugural most overrated team, I picked the
Dolphins. In most rankings, they were in the top 5. Peter
King even had them in the Super Bowl. They finished 6-10 in
2006. In 2007, I picked the Broncos who were also in the top 5 of
just about every ranking. They finished 7-9 that
year. Last year, I picked the Browns, who were in the top
10 in every ranking. They finished 4-12. This year, most
rankings have some combination of the Patriots, Steelers, Giants,
Colts, and Eagles in the top. I can't argue with any of
those. The thing that stands out the most to me is that the
Patriots are ranked at the top of almost every major ranking
system:
Yahoo sports #1, “ ...should be much scarier with a healthy Tom
Brady back.” CBSsportsline #1, “Tom Brady back, ...deepest
team,...best coach.” CNNSI #1 “...don't see much
downside.” Fox/whatifsports #1. Athlon #1, The Sporting
news #1, “...premier 3-4 defense in the league (I think I just threw up
in my mouth. The Steelers and Ravens may have something to say
about that)”, ESPN has them #2. Vegas has them 3-1 to win
the Super Bowl. The next closest team, the Colts, are 6-1.
If you've read any of my past articles, you know that I'm not a
Patriots fan, but I do have great respect for them, or at least for
their quarterback, who by all accounts is returning on a mission this
year. Brady, though, cannot do it all by himself. The
Giants showed how to beat the Patriots in the Super Bowls. By
putting constant pressure on Brady, the offense becomes only very good,
not incredible as it was for much of the 2007 season. I'm sure
every team who was scheduled to play the Patriots last year were going
to try to copy the Giants playbook, and apply maximum pressure on
Brady. Unfortunately, Brady went down for the season in the first
game last year, so we did not have an opportunity to see if that plan
would have been successful. However, the Patriots' offensive line
played significantly worse in 2008 compared to 2007. They gave up
48 sacks last year compared to 21 in 2007. Was that regression
due to the fact that Matt Cassel lacked Tom Brady's recognition skills
and quick release, selling out by opposing defenses to get to the
quarterback, or maybe the fact that defenses for the first time had
radios in their helmets so the Patriots could not steal their
signals? We may never know, but this unit is probably more
important to the Patriots' offense than Welker and Moss, because if
Brady can't throw the ball, those guys can't catch it. Whether the line
plays like it did in 2007 or 2008 is unclear, but it does return the
same 5 starters who have been playing together for 4 years. That
in itself is a strength.
The running game was also a strength last year, ranking a surprising
4th in the league. The addition of Fred Taylor, and the return of
Laurence Maroney should keep it strong. Tom Brady's return should
also keep the safety out of the box, which should help the yards per
carry average, but with Brady back, they probably won't be running as
much.
The Patriots have a plethora of riches at receiver. Starting of
course with Randy Moss and Wes Welker. They also signed Joey
Galloway and traded for Greg Lewis. How much Galloway has left is
a mystery, but he apparently is still very fast. At tight end,
Chris Baker and Alex Smith came from the Jets and Buccaneers.
Both are good receiving tight ends to go along with Ben Watson.
Those are a whole lot of good receivers for Tom Brady, and IF the
offensive line can hold up its end, the offense could once again be
frightening.
New England's weakness is its defense. Can we please put to rest
the myth that Bill Belichick is a defensive genius. Since
becoming the Patriots' head coach in 2000, his defenses have been
ranked: 20th, 24th, 23rd, 7th, 9th, 26th, 6th, 4th, and 10th in
total yards for an average ranking of 13.3. Consider that is with
an offense that not only holds the ball, but also scores in bunches and
usually gains the early lead so the defense can concentrate on the
pass. Compare that to the Steelers who had an average ranking of
4.4, and the Ravens with an average of 4.9 over that same period.
Neither of those teams has an offense which helps the defense like the
Patriots.
The Patriot's strength on defense is their defensive line. Made
up of first round picks Ty Warren, Vince Wilfork, and Richard Seymour,
this line is good against the run and the pass. Unfortunately, in
a 3-4 defense, the main role of the defensive line is there to occupy
the blockers to allow the linebackers to make the plays. That key
area is where the Patriots are lacking. Even with defensive
rookie of the year, Jerod Mayo, this is a very average unit. Tedy
Bruschi may be smart, but he is ancient. They traded away, their
best pass rusher, and heart of their defense, Mike Vrabel to Kansas
City. He will be replaced by either Shawn Crable, Tully Banta
Cain, or Pierre Woods, none of whom have shown that they can
consistently apply pressure on the QB. Their other starting OLB,
Adalius Thomas is also past his prime. As a middle linebacker,
Mayo may be a tackling machine, but he is a liability in coverage, and
does not get many opportunities to pressure the QB. Last year,
this defense ranked only 14th in sacks with only 31.
On paper, their secondary is improved with the additions of veterans
Shawn Springs, and Leigh Bodden as well as highly touted rookie Darius
Butler. At safety, Brandon Meriweather has not proven to be the
impact player befitting his first round status. Even though
Rodney Harrison has retired, he missed most of last season anyway, so
he will not be particularly missed. Rookie Patrick Chung is
expected to take his place. While this secondary may be better
than last year's, unless the front 7 can find a way to get more
pressure on the QB, it will still be exposed.
On special teams, kicker Stephen Gostkowski is a pro bowler, and
punter, Chris Hanson, is adequate. The returners are also only
average, though they expect big things from rookie Brandon Tate,
however, probably in year 2 as he probably will start this season on
injured reserver.
Lost in the accolades for Matt Cassel last year was the fact that the
Patriots played the easiest schedule in recent memory. They
played the laughable AFC and NFC west as well as the weaklings in their
own division. The 2009 schedule gets much tougher with the AFC and NFC
south. The teams in their own division have also improved though
the Jets are probably still lacking at QB.
One further point about the NFL's “model franchise”. Belichick
and his former sidekick, Scott Pioli, are always mentioned as draft
geniuses, but this is not reflected in their starting lineup. Of
the 11 projected starters on offense, only 6, the entire offensive line
and Brady were originally drafted by the Patriots. Two more may
start, Maroney and Watson, but with new acquisitions Fred Taylor, Chris
Baker, and Alex Smith, those two will probably be in a rotation.
None of their starting receivers were originally drafted or signed by
the Patriots.
On defense, three starters, Adalius Thomas, Leigh Bodden, and Shawn
Springs were not drafted by the Patriots. That is 8 of 22
starters who were not originally drafted or signed by the
Patriots. Again, compare this to the Steelers where only
starters Justin Hartwig, James Farrior, and Ryan Clark were not
originally drafted or signed by the Steelers.
Even with the improvement of Miami and Buffalo, the AFC East is still a
relatively weak division so the Patriots should have no problem making
the playoffs, but with their tougher out of division schedule, I doubt
that they will be able to gain the top seed in the playoffs. I
see a divisional round playoff loss. New England fans will be
crying in their chowda come February.
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