Mocking the mocks: an early 2011 consensus

Research is a big part of mocking the NFL draft. Draftniks are often called "information gatherers" and it is usually meant in a derogatory way. I see it differently. Relying on other sources of information is an important component of the process, and good mock drafts are able to filter this data by dismissing unreliable opinions and taking note of experts with a track record of success.

With this in mind, today I am going to put the reader into some of my very early research for the 2011 draft. There are already 200 players I have my eye on. I have plugged in over three dozen mock drafts from various sources into an Excel spreadsheet and want to pass along some data.

Consensus Top 10:
Only one player, Washington quarterback Jake Locker, appears on every mock draft. The reason is pretty simple. Of the 7 players whose average draft position lands in the top 10 he is the lone senior prospect. Fellow Pac-10 signal caller Andrew Luck (Stanford) and Ryan Mallett (Arkansas) will have a decision to make, but after a down year this quarterback class has promise. Wide receivers Julio Jones (Alabama) and A.J. Green (Georgia) have a lot of people believing Keyshawn Johnson will no longer be the last player at the position taken #1 overall. Rounding out the top 7 are defensive end Robert Quinn (North Carolina) and cornerback Patrick Peterson (LSU).

Contenders for Top 15:
Another 8 players had an average draft position of 16.48 or better while being mentioned in at least 80% of the mock drafts. This is where the defensive line starts to look strong yet again with Adrian Clayborn (Iowa) Cameron Heyward (Ohio State) Marvin Austin (North Carolina) and Greg Romeus (Pittsburgh) represented. Reigning Heisman Trophy winning running back Mark Ingram (Alabama) has earned comparisons to Emmitt Smith and not for his ballroom dancing skills. Offensive tackle Gabe Carimi (Wisconsin) defensive end Marcel Dareus (Alabama) and wide receiver Michael Floyd (Notre Dame) are the others who are consensus choices to compete for spots in the top half of the first round.

Comfortable in the First Round:
At this point it becomes more about the quantity of mentions in mostly one round mocks. There are 14 players listed by over half the mocks with average positions of 16-25. I consider these the final "consensus" first rounders at this point, bringing our total thus far to 29. Defensive tackle Allen Bailey (Miami, FL) leads the way, but a lot of attention is being paid to Jared Crick (Nebraska) who is no longer in the shadow of "Mr. Suh" and a solid prospect in his own right. The offensive tackle position finally gets serious attention with Antony Castonzo (Boston College) Joseph Barksdale (LSU) and Matt Reynolds (BYU). A pair of cornerbacks with names certain to drive analysts wacky also show up in the form of Ras-I Dowling (Virginia) and Prince Amukamara (Nebraska). Joining them in the defensive backfield are safeties DeAndre McDaniel (Clemson) Deunta Williams (North Carolina) and Rahim Moore (UCLA) battling to be the first at their position off the board. Jonathan Baldwin (Pittsburgh) adds to an already loaded wide receiver crop. Three very different linebacker prospects are also in this group. Von Miller (Texas A&M) is the so-called "conversion" type expected to stand up at the pro level. Bruce Carter (North Carolina) plays the outside and Greg Jones (Michigan State) is by far the top man in the middle.

Fighting for Thursday night:
Seven more players have solid averages from 18-27, but are listed here because they failed to earn mentions in at least half the mock drafts. Clearly leading the way is running back Ryan Williams (Virginia Tech) followed by a pair of Texas cornerbacks, Aaron Williams and Curtis Brown. The top center prospect shows up with Mike Pouncey (Florida) and he actually didn't play there in 2009 because his twin brother Maurkice was occupying that spot. He is already saddled with criticisms he is an inferior prospect, but considering Maurkice went #18 overall even if it holds true he could still wind up a first rounder. It looks like the defensive tackle position will be strong again if early projections are any indication as Jerrell Powe (Mississippi) tries to follow in the footsteps of another Rebel, Peria Jerry, a 2009 first round pick of Atlanta. Travis Lewis (Oklahoma) will be more of a traditional outside linebacker while Da'Quan Bowers (Clemson) is another hybrid.

Trying to get noticed:
Ten prospects showed up on at least 25% of the mock drafts, with most earning averages from 25-28. The exceptions are a pair of interior offensive linemen with center Kris O'Dowd (USC) and guard Rodney Hudson (Florida State) landing in the 33 range. Two tackles also appear in the form of Clint Boling (Georgia) and Nate Solder (Colorado). Jurrell Casey (USC) is yet another defensive tackle earning a spot on this list. The consensus top tight end finally shows up with Kyle Rudolph (Notre Dame). Pass rusher Jeremy Beal (Oklahoma) wide receiver Terrance Toliver (LSU) running back Evan Royster (Penn State) and quarterback Christian Ponder (Florida) are the final members of the "consensus" top 46.

Position Analysis - Offense:
Out of the 46 players 22 are on offense. Only three quarterbacks went in the 2010 top 50, and one of those (Tebow) was a polarizing choice. The difference in the 4 being consideration this season is that coming in 3 are being looked at as top 10 prospects. When Notre Dame's Golden Tate went #60 he was the fourth wide receiver off the board, but this group is represented by 6 and a pair of contenders to be the first player period. There often seems to be a clear cut top tight end and after only 3 went in the top 90 it makes sense to see just Kyle Rudolph (Notre Dame) listed. Running back (3) was slighted a bit considering the fourth was off the board early in the second round at #36 and a fifth went #51. The line might not have gotten the top end love, but overall with 6 tackles, 2 centers and a guard this crop is on pace to match the 2010 first round which saw 4 tackles, a guard and center come off the board with another tackle taken #33.

Position Analysis - Defense:
This side of the ball got slightly more attention with 24 of 46 players. Safety (3) was represented by the one short of number taken in the 2010 draft's top 50, and cornerback (5) was two shy. Plus, six corners were gone by pick #34. Expect players in the secondary to find their way up draft boards. I'm not going to split hairs trying to differentiate which guys were actually linebackers, and which defensive linemen can be classified as end or tackle. Instead, a strong showing of 16 players will line up on the front seven in some form which is one short of the number taken in the 2010 top 50.

Conference Affiliation:
I know there are some of you out there who actually care about stuff like this so here it is. Leading the way with 12 players is of course the ACC. Wait, what? Their cause was bolstered by North Carolina's four defenders. The SEC is next with 11 including three members of defending BCS champion Alabama. Next up is the Big XII (8) with two each from conference heavyweights Nebraska, Oklahoma and Texas. Well, until the Cornhuskers and Longhorns move on right? Oh, I kid. The Big Ten has 5, which might explain why they need to expand. Remember when USC dominated the NFL combine? The entire Pac-10 has 4 (two Trojans) which is the same number of linebackers the once dominant program sent to the 2009 NFL combine. The Big East, or should I say Pittsburgh, had 2 which tied with Notre Dame. The lone player not in a "Big Six" conference (or the Irish) was BYU offensive tackle Matt Reynolds out of the Mountain West. I count 8 players from non-AQ teams selected in the top 50 this past draft. The reason is pretty simple. Major conferences get a lot more attention so expect plenty of players from the "outside" to pick up steam. Candidates include offensive tackles Nate Potter (Boise State) and Marcus Cannon (TCU) quarterbacks Pat Devlin (Delaware) and Case Keenum (Houston) and defensive end Christian Anthony (Grambling).

In summary:
What does all of this mean? Not much, other than I find it pretty interesting that in most cases the number of prospects by position holds fairly true relative to the number taken early in the 2010 draft. Some of these players are going to flame out, possibly not even getting drafted. Examples of this are quarterback Jevan Snead (Mississippi) and pass rusher Brandon Lang (Troy). Others will decide to stay in school, as aforementioned defensive tackle Marvin Austin (North Carolina) did. Every mock draft is an exercise in futility to some extent, but this provides the groundwork for the upcoming college football season. A lot is at stake for these young men, to say nothing of the labor unrest waiting for them when/if they make it to the NFL.