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1) Miami – OT Jake Long (Michigan) 
He made a smart move taking the deal to be the top pick in the draft. I certainly understand the logic of Parcells hoping he can be the new version of Jumbo Elliott on his offensive line. Their head coach Tony Sparano most recently coached the line in Dallas as well which is why I had Jake here in the first week of March. I should have stuck to my guns. 

2) St. Louis – DE Chris Long (Virginia)
Now that Jake has signed on the Rams have a few ways they can go with this pick. Clearly defense is on their mind and three guys up front are the options. They have steadily fallen down the defensive rankings since last going to the Super Bowl following the 2001 season. Particularly run defense has been an issue where they haven’t been ranked higher than #20 since 2002. This one has given me some problems, so much that some of the same reasons I went with Dorsey I will now use for them not taking him. They have a poor record of taking defensive tackles early including Jimmy Kennedy (#12 in 2003) and Damione Lewis (#12 in 2001). They also have a handful of recent draft picks on hand. One of them is last year’s first rounder Adam Carriker who they pushed inside from his natural end position. It would be tough to send him back outside. Their situation at end is of course also not good. James Hall was cut, but no one wanted him and he’s back. Leonard Little is just about retired. Chris Long is one of premier defenders and can make an immediate impact. He might not have a lot of upside, that’s his only real knock.

3) Atlanta – DT Glenn Dorsey (LSU)
Remember the television show Change of Heart? Couples went on the show, dated other people and at the end decided if they wanted to stick together of had a change of heart. Well, I’ve had a few at the top. Atlanta was gouged for 4.2 yards per rush last year and run on more frequently than all but 5 other NFL teams. Amidst their disarray aging veteran Grady Jackson was cut which is fine, but they have little talent in the middle of their defensive line now that veteran Rod Coleman has also been set free. The issue really becomes the total value of a defensive tackle and quarterback depending on the order selected. I think there is a bigger drop off after Dorsey considering Ellis and Balmer should be gone by their next selection. At quarterback Brohm, Henne and Flacco are in play anywhere from the late first to middle second where they have several selections they can work with.

4) Oakland – RB Darren McFadden (Arkansas)
I couldn’t be more in the dark about who the Raiders are picking. The thing that perhaps confuses me the most is that typically they are a team known for allowing little or no information out about which player they want in the draft. Now we’re hearing Al Davis is ready to adopt Darren McFadden and is printing up jerseys with his name on it. Well, not really but just about. In McFadden he hopes he has another Marcus Allen to help revive the franchise and stimulate ticket sales. There is some maneuvering they can do to make this move a success which starts with cutting LaMont Jordan who was totally misused although he couldn’t stay healthy. He never carried the load like he was brought in to do. Recently locked up Justin Fargas has also been injured often, but with McFadden around would only be counted on for 150-200 carries. Dominic Rhodes becomes a veteran insurance policy for one season while Michael Bush, last year’s fourth round pick from Louisville waits in the wings a season or two for Fargas (29 when the season is over) to fade. Looking at the numbers it is clearly wiser to grab LSU defensive tackle Glenn Dorsey. The team had a much tougher time stopping the run (#31) than running it (#6) last year. However, no one really knows what goes on in their draft room.

5) Kansas City – DE/OLB Vernon Gholston (Ohio State)
Here is another “old” pick I am going back to. The Chiefs traded away Jared Allen. In this almost dream scenario they have their pick of two pass rushers to take his place. They choose upside although it would be an extreme kick in the face to the rival Raiders if they put Howie’s son Chris Long in a Kansas City uniform. Oakland fans would be having Marcus Allen flashbacks and I wouldn’t rule out Al Davis dealing from #4 to #6 if the Jets want to be certain they lock down Chris Long. Both of these guys are possibly better suited for a 3-4, but in terms of value and need the Chiefs are better off taking one of them instead of reaching on the offensive line for Albert or Clady.

6) NY Jets – CB Leodis McKelvin (Troy)
Beating Kansas City in the finale costs them a little draft position, and if things break like this they will be quite bummed to miss out on both pass rushers. It is going to be very interesting to see how they react to having Matt Ryan on the board when they pick. Without projecting trades I am halfway projecting one here with them switching spots with Baltimore. New York drafted Darrelle Revis to start on one side, but just cut Andre Dyson and starter Hank Poteat will be 31 when the season starts. They had one of those years where the pass defense ranking (#9) looks good because teams ran over them to the tune of 134.8 yards per game. It was really only an average year for them in the secondary. The Jets need another corner or they wouldn’t be signing Andre Woolfork off the street. McKelvin is a playmaker and can also return punts. In the FBS last year he was nearly three yards better on average (17.4) of anyone with 20+ punt returns. Leon Washington has a great year returning kickoffs with 3 for touchdowns, but wasn’t as successful on punts meaning the Jets can try out McKelvin.

7) New England (via San Francisco) – OLB Keith Rivers (USC)   
If there is a team that has me more puzzled than the Raiders, it’s the Patriots. Their trend has been not to draft a cornerback or linebacker early even though those are their two biggest needs. At offensive tackle I just can’t see them reaching. Defensive line is usually their call early yet my gut tells me Ellis isn’t their cup of chowder. I’m back to a pick I have waffled in and out of. Junior Seau gave them a nice lift and now another Trojan linebacker takes his spot on the roster. Their addition of Victor Hobson makes me leery of this move, and they also brought in T.J. Slaughter. However, they cut Roosevelt Colvin and a few of their guys are into their 30’s. Ultimately they need a young star at linebacker to groom. I think he’s good enough to work into their system where they prefer grizzled veterans. By that I mean old guys who almost need walkers to get around.

8) Baltimore – QB Matt Ryan (Boston College)
There will be a lot of happy Raven fans if they can find the top quarterback without trading up. It is likely they will, to #6 but even at that they’d be getting the top signal caller later than nine of the past ten drafts. This gives them a replacement for Kyle Boller who in the wake of Steve McNair’s retirement is their starter this season. New head coach John Harbaugh gets his own guy to move forward with at the most important position. Former Heisman Trophy winner Troy Smith (Ohio State) displayed some ability as a rookie and his value is probably capped off at backup. Their defense simply isn’t good enough these days to win games without consistent play from the quarterback position.

9) Cincinnati – DT Sedrick Ellis (USC)
Despite winning their finale at Miami the Bengals finished at the top of a seven way tie at 7-9 for this selection. Lucky break to say the least. The Bengals lost out trying to trade for Shaun Rogers, Dewayne Robertson, Jabba the Hutt and a couple of Sumo wrestlers. Cincinnati has finished on average #22 in run defense over the past six seasons. Enough is enough. The last time they drafted a defensive tackle earlier than the fourth round was Dan “Big Daddy” Wilkinson when they took him #1 overall. I wonder why they haven’t been stopping the run.

10) New Orleans – CB Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie (Tennessee State)
These are the breaks as they say and truth be told they want one of the Trojans, either Ellis (defensive tackle) or Rivers (outside linebacker). They might trade up to get one. If they don’t this is not a bad play. The Saints were a disaster at cornerback last year. The Jason David trade blew up in their face. I’m torn on how they will gauge the addition of Randall Gay (Patriots) versus their lack of depth and the fact that Mike McKenzie turns 32 on draft day. This is a solid class of corners and they should be looking for McKenzie’s successor. When Antonio Cromartie entered the league San Diego was thought to be taking a huge risk on a player who had barely played at Florida State. In his second season he intercepted 10 passes. Now his cousin comes along and while he lacks the bulk many believe he can have a similar impact. The Saints are taking a chance because “DRC” has only one kidney since the other had to be removed. I’ll be sure to ask Dr. House exactly what this means in terms of an ongoing risk to his playing health, but in the meantime it could see him slip 5-10 spots depending on which teams are worried about it. If they are concerned they can just as easily take Jenkins.

11) Buffalo – CB Mike Jenkins (South Florida)
The Bills have youth in the secondary with Youboty at cornerback while Whitner and Simpson man the safety spots. They also added cornerback William James and retained Bryan Scott at free safety, but lost two corners in Kiwaukee Thomas (cut) and Jason Webster (Patriots). However, in the 14 seasons since the Bills ended their four year reign as AFC Champions the team has only one season with more than 18 interceptions, averaging a pedestrian 15.07 over that stretch. In four of the past seven years they haven’t topped 13. I realize Jenkins had only 6 interceptions in his last three seasons, but he brings a ton of experience and teams will be throwing his way more in the NFL.

12) Denver – OG/OT Branden Albert (Virginia)
It has been a long time since the Broncos have been slated to pick this high. They chose quarterback Jay Cutler at #11 in 2006, but traded up four spots to do so. Otherwise they haven’t picked higher than #15 since 1993 (#11). Matt Lepsis surprised them by retiring. They have to pursue another tackle to join last year’s pick Ryan Harris and Erik Pears because they are thin at the position. Their bargain hunting at wide receiver (Samie Parker, Darrell Jackson) and trade interest at defensive tackle (Dewayne Robertson) certainly slants them in this direction. They get the best offensive line prospect remaining and it’s Albert who became a guard for the Cavaliers because of the presence of D’Brickashaw Ferguson, now with the Jets. He is expected to kick outside to tackle in the pros and has been rising as high as #5 on some boards after being seemingly burned into the #23 slot for a while. An interesting move for the Broncos, who are without a third round pick, would be to trade down a few spots and select Chris Williams who protected their current starting quarterback Jay Cutler at Vanderbilt.

13) Carolina – DE Derrick Harvey (Florida)
They seem bent on adding the best tackle with their first pick, but everyone seems to believe Harvey will be gone by the time Detroit (who really wants him) gets on the clock. It will be hard to pass on Clady. Also, it might be too early for them to know if Charles Johnson, last year’s third round pick, is a future starter, but something has to give after their sorry sack total (23, second worst) this season. Former first round pick Tyler Brayton (Raiders) was added after being totaled misused in the Black Hole. Julius Peppers needs someone to help him elevate his play back to his dominant past. Mike Rucker’s announcement that he is in fact retiring makes this a little more pressing. Last year’s late pick Stanley McClover has promise. Harvey is one of the top pass rushers in the draft having logged 19.5 sacks over his final 27 games. He also has the defensive MVP from the national title game on his mantle.

14) Chicago – OT Ryan Clady (Boise State)
This is not where the Bears expected to pick after losing in Super Bowl XLI. Beating the Packers in week 16 eventually dropped them from #9 so I hope it was worth sticking their rival in a meaningless game. Their offensive line features a pair of old tackles, one of which (Fred Miller) was just cut. Upgrading that unit is a must after taking 42 quarterback sacks and running for three yards and a cloud of dust most of the season. The line struggled to open holes for Cedric Benson who finished with 3.4 yards per carry, most of which probably falls on his shoulders. They have to be thrilled to land Clady in this spot.

15) Detroit – OT Chris Williams (Vanderbilt)
Does anyone really know what the Lions are up to on any given draft day? It probably wasn’t a great idea to count on George Foster saving their offensive line and now Damien Woody is gone too. Over the past two seasons they have given up 3.65 sacks per game. Now that offensive coordinator Mike Martz is gone their new balanced offense could use another addition to the line. Brown moved up the draft board very quietly at the end and might not last this long.

16) Arizona – RB Rashard Mendenhall (Illinois)
Ken Whisenhunt wants to run the ball a lot, but Edgerrin James can’t carry a huge load at this point in his career. Most teams have two rushers anyway and neither Shipp nor Arrington is capable of sharing carries with Edge. Mendenhall is considered by some the best overall player at the position in this class even over McFadden. He had his sixth game over 170 total yards (214) against USC in the Rose Bowl while his team was getting thumped 49-17.

17) Kansas City (via Minnesota) – OT Jeff Otah (Pittsburgh)
Things couldn’t shape up any better for the Chiefs in this draft. Without long time stalwarts Roaf and Shields (who retired over the past two years) holding down the line this offense fell flat. They must draft a tackle early after losing two more veterans in Chris Terry (cut) and reclamation project Kyle Turley (retired) while cutting another lineman in John Welbourn. Rumors were flying that they might take Otah at #5 and it is said coach Herm Edwards likes his toughness. The last time this many tackles went this early was 1992 when four went in the top 15. I’m not sure the names Ray Roberts (Seattle) or Eugene Chung (New England) ring the same bells as Bob Whitfield (Atlanta) and Leon Searcy (Pittsburgh). This is a good group and it could easily happen.

18) Houston –RB Jonathan Stewart (Oregon)
The way the draft has transpired I think this is an easy choice for the Texans unless they trade down to #22 because Dallas could want Stewart and considering they have no second round pick any compensation would be nice. Barring that, they really can’t go cornerback with Talib who is a big risk with his multiple failed marijuana tests. At tackle they are down to Cherlius and Baker, neither is the kind of stud they really need so it makes more sense for them to continue mining for gold in the middle rounds. Let’s not forget that Stewart is a very good player. They signed Ahman Green to stabilize their running game, but he spent most of the year hurt. I don’t think 70 carries for 260 yards was what they had in mind. He has just turned 31. Ron Dayne is 30 in March. Now that Chris Brown, 27 in April, has joined the team he might be gone anyway. They need some young legs. Stewart is every bit as talented as Mendenhall and slipped behind him only because of surgery for turf toe. Now word is out that teams in this range really aren’t very concerned about his recovery. The Cardinals certainly wouldn’t be dependent on him carrying the ball 20-25 times starting in week 1 and now have their new feature back. Watching Stewart run for 253 yards against a South Florida defense who knew he was coming cemented his first round status for me.

19) Philadelphia – WR Limas Sweed (Texas)
Consider the pleas of McNabb and Westbrook answered. They already moved the ball well (#6 in total yards). The idea is to improve the scoring (#17). Their passing offense finished tenth with 4,005 yards yet 23% of that went to running backs, mostly Brian Westbrook. This is another late change of heart from DeSean Jackson. The feeling might be that there is a little less risk with Sweed. Both were hurt last year and when healthy both can really score. In 2006 Sweed caught just 46 passes, but 12 were for touchdowns and he averaged 17.4 yards per reception. His size makes him a threat regardless of field position.

20) Tampa Bay – WR Devin Thomas (Michigan State)
At receiver Galloway can’t go on forever and Hilliard’s 2006 aberration won’t be repeated. Bringing Antonio Bryant back into the NFL and signing tight end Ben Troupe could prove to be good moves or might blow up in their face. After considering quarterback Brian Brohm (Louisville) the Bucs just don’t have enough picks relative to their needs to make that kind of a move. Thomas has rocketed up the board because of his fast 40, great final collegiate season (1,260 yards) and God given size. The other top receivers in this class have flaws which has helped him. As an added bonus Thomas was also among the FBS leaders in kickoff return average (29.1) landing in the top 10 for players with at least one per game. We all know Tampa Bay finally got their first kickoff return for a touchdown in franchise history this past season. Thomas can be their future #1.

21) Washington – DE Philip Merling (Clemson)
It will be interesting to see the Redskins actually draft some players this year after safety LaRon Landry was their only pick in the first four rounds of the 2006 draft. For once the Redskins really weren’t a big player in free agency. Andre Carter has been a rare solid free agent signing under Daniel Snyder’s previously wild spending ownership, but the rest of their defensive ends are weak. Phillip Daniels turns 35 in May, is in the last year of his contract and has only 5.5 sacks the past two years combined. A better pass rusher is definitely needed. Merling underwent hernia surgery. However, his production on the field improved each season with the Tigers. He also worked out for teams this week and I believe that puts him back in this spot. If the rival Eagles hadn’t scooped up Sweed I think that would have been the choice. They don’t need another small receiver like DeSean Jackson (Califorina) and it is probably too soon to pick up James Hardy (Indiana).

22) Dallas (via Cleveland) – WR DeSean Jackson (California)
Even though the Cowboy offense was explosive someone to hurt opponents taking away Terrell Owens is a priority. At 34 Glenn is just about done as their speed threat and T.O. actually turns 35 during the season although he appears to have a little more left in his tank. Crayton is merely average. Several times this year Owens was limited to less than 50 yards receiving. They were 4-2 in those games with two of the wins by 1 point and 9-0 otherwise. Jackson is a legitimate home run threat and dynamite on punt returns. His stock fell when nearly every team punted away from him last year. Cal had just 16 punt returns, 12 by Jackson in 13 games. A minor injury while the team struggled in the second half of the season also soured those who once had him in the top 10. Still, he is a better prospect than Ted Ginn Jr. who went #9 last year. For the Cowboys he gives them touchdown potential on punt returns and if you check the records they are horrible in that department.

23) Pittsburgh – OT Gosder Cherilus (Boston College)
The Steelers traditionally do two things, let free agents walk and draft lots of linemen and linebackers. They took two linebackers early last year. Meanwhile Tackle Max Starks has been given the transition tag, not a guarantee he’ll be on the team this year. Next year tackle Willie Colon hits free agency and Trai Essex signed only a one year deal. Right now I think any additional body would be welcome considering Roethlisberger was sacked 47 times. Now I know what you’re thinking. When is the last time five tackles went this high in the draft. That would be three decades ago in 1977 when the fifth was selected at #15. This is actually the sixth if you count Albert as a tackle where he is expected to play. BC has had an impressive 10 offensive linemen drafted into the NFL since 1999 and Cherilus is creeping up draft boards.

24) Tennessee – ILB/OLB Jerod Mayo (Tennessee)
The Titans want to add a pass rusher here, but the heart situation with Groves and pro day/combine of Campbell might turn them away. Their next best option will be adding a linebacker. Keith Bulluck just turned 31 and is coming off by far his least productive season since 2001 in terms of sacks/tackles although he intercepted 5 passes after coming into the year with 11 in 111 career games. This is really a matter of value and Mayo can either be used in the middle or outside. It doesn’t hurt that he is a hometown favorite.

25) Seattle – DT Kentwan Balmer (North Carolina)
Brandon Mebane did a nice job as a rookie, but this is the “win now” final year for Mike Holmgren. He has addressed his team’s problem running the ball with the additions of Julius Jones and T.J. Duckett. Now he needs to make sure they can stop the run. After losing Ellis Wyms and Chuck Darby they must respond with a high pick. Balmer’s reaction time and lack of speed were issues at the combine. He was also a little bit uncooperative with scouts at UNC’s pro day, but he’s still the third best at his position in this draft after two really good players. I am not sold on the Seahawks going in this direction. They could go after a receiver like Malcolm Kelly (Oklahoma) or James Hardy (Indiana) and might even take offensive tackle Sam Baker (USC). It’s possible Balmer slides out of the first round completely.

26) Jacksonville – DE/OLB Quentin Groves (Auburn)
The Jaguars are always on the lookout for another star defender. It would go a little against their history given that only once in their 12 drafts have they taken a defensive end in the opening three rounds, Tony Brackens in the second round back in 1996 being the other. He turned out pretty well for them in eight seasons of work. Bobby McCray is gone in free agency and that’s okay with them. His heart ailment is an issue, but apparently it has been “fixed” as if we’re talking about replacing a carburetor. Groves had 26 sacks in 49 games for the Tigers and ran the 40 in the 4.5 range at the combine so it appears the issue won’t keep him out of the first round.

27) San Diego – OT Sam Baker (USC)
They won’t be picking next until #160 due to trades and their supplemental draft selection so expect them to work the phones for a possible trade out of round 1. The run on offensive tackles puts them in even worse position. They really need to replace Shane Olivea (cut) and Baker is the best available lineman. He isn’t their first choice, especially after he “ran” a terrible 40 which I hear was slower than the turtles from the Comcast commercial. It has dipped his grade to the point where many will call this a reach. However,  I’m not certain of the last time I ever saw a lineman run more than five yards before stopping to block someone. Also, while many won’t believe this many OL go this early I can’t believe it costs me fifty bucks to fill up my gas tank. What are their options? Even if he doesn’t pan out at tackle most believe he can a solid guard which makes this a relatively safe addition to their needy line. Baker did anchor a solid line for the Trojans and gets to remain in sunny SoCal.

28) Dallas – RB Felix Jones (Arkansas)
Even without trading up they wind up with a Razorback runner. What? Darren who? Yeah, he wanted McFadden and will have to settle. As sticky as the negotiations are going with Marion Barber he wouldn’t be able to afford McFadden in the same backfield anyway. I have waffled on him falling as far as #42 because he’s fast yet at the combine nearly 40% of the backs who weigh at least 195 (Jones is 207) had a better 40 time. Of the 14 who are at least 205 nine of them ran 4.52 or better, not far off his 4.47 clocking. If you’re going to be rated on speed that’s a big factor. Also, for the Razorbacks life was good coming into games when defenders had been tired out chasing his teammate. However, his big play ability is undeniable. How does 9.1 yards per rush as a senior strike you? Even with McFadden around he still had 78.7 yards per game and scored 20 touchdowns in 37 outings. He was great on kickoff returns too. In the entire FBS only two players who returned more kickoffs than his 22 had a better average (29.6). They have added to dynamic offensive threats who can help on special teams.

29) San Francisco (via Indianapolis) – WR James Hardy (Indiana)
The 49ers almost made seeking their team needs a little like shopping for a rich relative. What do you get for a team throwing millions at free agent? Seriously, is there a free agent the 49ers didn’t sign? Including last year’s trade for the recently dumped Darrell Jackson (Seahawks) they have now raided every division rival for a wide receiver with the additions of Bryant Johnson (Cardinals) and veteran Isaac Bruce (Rams). There might not be a star or true #1 on the roster. Can Hardy be that guy? I guess we’ll find out. The truth is, if you’re going to bring in Mike Martz at coordinator it does make sense to give him one rookie receiver to mold. Bruce is a two year roster filler and it’s not like Hardy would be taking a spot on the 53 from someone worth sweating over. Right now I see Battle, Johnson and Bruce as guys capable of catching 40-60 passes each this season. Hardy’s size (6’5”) has people calling him a clone of Plaxico Burress (Giants). He ran a reasonable 40 at the combine (4.51) and was incredibly productive for the Hoosiers with 26 touchdowns over 33 games. They would love to have gotten an addition to the front seven or offensive line in this spot, but the value with Hardy is better. It wouldn’t shock me to see one of the top cornerbacks left going to them here either.

30) Green Bay – CB Aqib Talib (Kansas)
Al Harris and Charles Woodson can still get it done as starting corners, but depth is a big concern. This is a really deep draft at the cornerback position and the Packers could find a good one in multiple spots. However, this a rather easy choice. Talib was once considered as high as the #7 overall pick, but now failed marijuana tests have dropped him into the lap of a team unlikely to care. He had 11 interceptions in his final 23 games for the Jayhawks. Behind the starters he will be free to pick off some passes.

31) NY Giants – FS Kenny Phillips (Miami, FL)
For a team that was 8-8 just two seasons ago New York doesn’t have a lot of needs. Sammy Knight is only a temporary solution to the departure of Gibril Wilson (Raiders). They need to consider other options and it almost isn’t fair for the draft’s top safety to fall into their laps here. Phillips ran a slow 40 at the combine, but a handful of teams will definitely regret not taking him. I know at least a few teams starting around Philadelphia (#19) will be interested in his services.