College
Football Predictions - Week 7
by Gregory
Cox
College
Football Director
10/8/08
I was 13-3
last week and came pretty close on the scores for nine of those correct
picks.
Considering I stick to mostly competitive games between good teams as
opposed
to selecting all the Top 25 games including huge favorites I can live
with
that. Not too many picks this week because I’m staying away from ones I
see as
shooting fish in a barrel.
Clemson
(3-2) @ Wake Forest (3-1) – THURSDAY:
I’ll be
completely honest I thought this was going to be the
game in the ACC Atlantic division before the season started.
Now four teams are 1-1 in conference play, N.C. State
is 0-2 and the Demon Deacons at 1-0 are the only one yet to lose an ACC
game.
Throw in the Coastal and only Virginia Tech is spotless despite five of
those
six having played just twice in conference. Parity is one thing, but
this is
ridiculous. Soon a team or two has to stand up. The Tigers have already
been
embarrassed on national television against a very good Alabama team. Wake
Forest has a
win in the books over Mississippi out
of the SEC, a team who later won at Florida. They were also
last seen getting embarrassed by Navy. One statistic really stands out
for me
and it is differential in rushing yards. Wake Forest
is -60.0 and Clemson is +50.2. If they can get their running backs
going this
is a game they should win. The Demon Deacons have been the better team
thus far
and this is an upset. Clemson 23, Wake Forest
20
Minnesota (5-1) @ Illinois (3-2):
These teams
are thus far known for slightly different things. The visiting Gophers
have
beaten only bad teams while the Illini have lost to both good teams. Of
course,
Minnesota just lost
to a good team last week,
getting blasted at Ohio
State
before two garbage
time scores made it look close. Illinois
meanwhile turned the corner a bit by turning in a road blowout of a
decent Michigan
team. Juice
Williams set a yardage record in the Big House which is saying
something given
the list of players who have entered that stadium. These Gophers are
better
than most think and bear in mind their lone road win came 42-17 at Bowling Green, a team coming off a 27-17 spanking
of Pittsburgh.
They can’t
keep Juice contained and it won’t be too close. Illinois
41, Minnesota 23
Texas (5-0)
vs. Oklahoma (5-0) – Dallas, TX: This one I hear is pretty big. Not
long ago it
was the only game that really mattered in this conference. Now
Missouri, Texas
Tech and Oklahoma State are all also sitting on 5-0 records while
Kansas is
ranked #16 and coming off a 12-1 season. This will be the fourth time
this
decade both teams came in with top 5 rankings. Oklahoma was ranked
higher on
all three occasions and won 14-3 (2001) 35-24 (2002) and 12-0 (2004). I
think
all Longhorn fans remember the last meeting when the Sooners were #1.
It was a
65-13 spanking in 2003. The last time Texas won when they came in
ranked lower
was 1992 and that was the fourth year in a row they entered unranked
and took
out a Sooner team ranked #15, #4, #6 and #16. I love the way McCoy has
made
Texas his team, but the fact remains if they can’t run the ball
consistently it
won’t be a game. All Oklahoma really has to do is run left and it sets
everything else up. Bear in mind this result doesn’t mean the ‘Horns
are
overrated. Oklahoma 33, Texas 16
South
Carolina (4-2) @ Kentucky (4-1): It is rather easy to be overlooked in
the SEC
East when the teams you are starting up at are ranked #10, #11 and #13.
The
Gamecocks come in rather desperate having lost twice in conference
already, but
have a bit of momentum after Smelley’s best game at quarterback. If
they lose
this one it could be a struggle to reach 6-6 for bowl eligibility. The
Wildcats
have allowed just three touchdowns all season and last week held
Alabama to 10
offensive points. Their SEC destiny is still very much undecided
because that
was their first conference game. With lightweight Arkansas on deck they
can
smell bowl eligibility. Even if South Carolina got their offense going
last
week at Mississippi I think it’s a different story against this
defense. They
don’t give an inch. The same can be said on the other side, but I
believe the
home team will win the field position battle with a better running
game. Kentucky 13, South Carolina 9
Colorado
(3-2) @ Kansas (4-1): If this game was in Boulder last week it probably
would
have been won by the Buffs. Now the Jayhawks have successfully shaken
off the
upset bug and face a team reeling a bit from giving up 39 and 38 points
in
consecutive losses. My confidence couldn’t be much lower in Kansas at
the
moment, but Colorado is allowing 171.4 yards rushing per game. If ever
the
Jayhawks were going to get their running game in order this would be
the week,
and if not Reesing has the ability to bail them out again. Kansas
33, Colorado 1
Notre Dame
(4-1) @ North Carolina (4-1): Yes, the Irish are back. If they win this
game
expect a return to the top 25 as well considering this was the first
time ever
being denied a spot after winning four of their first five. Jimmy
Clausen is
the butt of a lot of jokes when his hair became a bigger story than his
completion percentage. These past two weeks, however, he has delivered
275 and
347 yards passing respectively with 3 touchdowns and no interceptions
in each
victory. For a guy who only passed for over 200 yards once last year he
already
has four games with at least 237 including 12 touchdown strikes. Haters
can
relax because all of this team’s success has come with Touchdown Jesus
looking
down on them. Butch Davis will have his Tar Heels ready for the kill.
The Tar
Heels showed no mercy on a Connecticut team one quarterback down last
week and
seem to be on a bit of a roll. North
Carolina 30, Notre Dame 17
Michigan
State (5-1) @ Northwestern (5-0): It’s still early in the Big Ten race,
but at
0-2 Wisconsin has probably been eliminated despite coming in as one of
the
favorites. The winner of this game will remain in contention despite
entering
the season well off the radar. Every season we get a “doomsday”
scenario that
never plays out, but can you imagine Northwestern and Penn State both
finishing
12-0? Would they meet for the national title if no SEC or Big XII teams
finished perfect? The Spartans can be counted on to eliminate this
possibility.
The Wildcats don’t have a lot of offense and their defense should be
worn down
by the human wrecking ball Javon Ringer. Michigan
State 20, Northwestern 16
Penn State
(6-0) @ Wisconsin (3-2): I almost didn’t include this game considering
the
Badgers have lost their last two. However, it seems like the Nittany
Lions are
under a microscope trying to justify their ranking. Wisconsin is still
a very
tough opponent and it’s their shot at redemption. Their only shot is to
ride
the running game, but this defense will not allow it. There is always a
chance
emotion enters the equation and an upset occurs. P.J. Hill might get
hot and
leave the Big Ten without a realistic contender for the national title
game.
This is the first of three viable threats this month to ruin PSU, but
in my
opinion the least likely. Penn State 21,
Wisconsin 13
Oklahoma
State (5-0) @ Missouri (5-0): It has been a wild ride for the Cowboys
this
season. Since opening the season with a 39-13 win at Washington State
they have
scored 55+ points in every subsequent victory. In the process Oklahoma
State
has rushed for 315.2 yards per game. The Tigers are vulnerable on
defense, but
not on the ground. There is also no way a shootout goes against a
Missouri team
that has absolutely scored at will this season. I see no way they lose
to any
team without a top flight defense. The Cowboys are still looking at 7
or 8 wins
and a bowl game which is a nice reward for their great start. Here they
are
totally out of their league. Missouri just needs to focus at home
instead of
looking ahead to Texas next week. Missouri
51, Oklahoma State 22
LSU (4-0) @
Florida (4-1): Every battle in the SEC is important, but the Gators
really need
this one even if it’s not a divisional opponent. They still control
their
destiny in the East and a loss would put them in a situation where
sweeping
Georgia/Vanderbilt on the road is a must if they want to reach the
title game.
The Tigers on the other hand have a loss to “give” because running the
table
after this game would still mean a repeat West title. Defense is the
order of
the day. Florida has actually given up only 4.2 more yards per game
than LSU
and the teams have combined to allow 13 touchdowns in 9 games. I liked
what I
saw with the Gators using different players in the running game last
week. It
will take some creativity to get anything done against a unit allowing
69 yards
per game on the ground. Harvin and Demps have the speed to do it. There
is very
little chance Urban Meyer allows his team to lose consecutive home
games. Florida 19, LSU 13
