College
Football Predictions - Week 6
by Gregory
Cox
College
Football Director
9/30/08
Louisiana
Tech (2-1) @ Boise State (3-0): WEDNESDAY - Suddenly the visiting
Bulldogs are
an interesting opponent as the Broncos attempt to earn national
respect. They
have already played teams from the best two conferences with a 22-14
home win
over Mississippi State
and 29-0 loss at Kansas
so comparisons will be drawn after this one. Louisiana Tech has been
torn up
through the air (349 yards per game) and Kellen Moore just dropped 386
yards on
a very talented Oregon
secondary in their stadium. Boise State
31-13
Pittsburgh (3-1) @ South Florida
(5-0): THURSDAY – Remember when Marshall QB Byron Leftwich was being
carried by
his teammates up the field because he was so injured during a game? It
was like
a scene out of Weekend at Bernie’s. I
feel like Pitt is staggering through this season the same way. After
going over
100 yards seven times last year LeSean McCoy finally went over that
mark
carrying 28 times for 149 yards in a comeback win over Syracuse. I know
sometimes a game played
prior to Saturday can produce a weird result (ask USC) but this is a
home game
for the Bulls who finally flexed their muscles blasting N.C. State
on the road. I don’t see a lazy effort here. USF 30-14
Oregon
State (2-2) @ Utah (5-0): THURSDAY – In upsetting USC the Beavers
became
temporarily relevant. Now they have to repeat their effort on the road
against
an opponent preparing to tackle shifty running back Jacquizz Rodgers.
Their
element of surprise is gone, and so is their emotional crowd. Oregon
State has
already been destroyed 45-14 at Penn State and while this won’t be that
ugly I
don’t anticipate another upset. Perhaps the Pac-10 will reconsider
scheduling
the MWC in the future. Utah 26-17
Duke (3-1)
@ Georgia Tech (3-1): The Yellow Jackets scored one for the ACC when
they pummeled
Mississippi State 38-7. In SEC play the Bulldogs have been a feisty
opponent
twice to powers LSU and Auburn. Then there is Duke, a team I never
thought I
would even mention this season. However, their only loss came to now
5-0
Northwestern by a narrow margin (24-20). They also have a win over Navy
and the
Midshipmen just stunned Wake Forest. The dream ends here. The Yellow
Jackets
can run the ball and the Blue Devils can’t stop them. GT 27-10
Iowa (3-2)
@ Michigan State (4-1): After two heartbreaking losses the Hawkeyes are
reeling. The Spartans put their opening loss at Cal behind them. Javon
Ringer
is running like a serious Heisman candidate with nearly 900 yards
already. The
defense gave up big plays at Indiana last week, but they have given up
a total
of 17 points in three home wins. Iowa’s defense has been touched for 43
points
in their two losses after allowing a total of 8 during their 3-0 start.
This is
going to be another Big Ten slugfest and don’t sleep on Hawkeye running
back
Shonn Greene with his 665 yards rushing. It should be close and higher
scoring
than most expect. MSU 30-20
South
Carolina (3-2) @ Mississippi (3-2): This is an interesting pairing of
middling
SEC teams. The common thread is both teams struggling at quarterback.
Stephen
Garcia is the latest Gamecock QB and made a splash last week going
13/20 for
131 yards plus 86 yards rushing in a win over UAB. Jevan Snead
completed only
45% of his passes, but two of those went for touchdowns in a monster
upset at
Florida. In total these teams have thrown 20 interceptions so turnovers
should
play a part in the result. Ole Miss has a better running game, but SC
is better
on defense especially in the secondary. You can almost flip a coin and
I think
a letdown might be coming for the Rebels. Ole Miss 19-17
Illinois
(2-2) @ Michigan (2-2): Are the Wolverines for real? It will take more
than one
good half of football to tell. Can the Illini do more than lose to good
teams?
Their early season losses both came away from home (one neutral) and
suddenly
the Big House has a little magic again. Illinois can’t keep giving up
182.5
yards rushing per game and I don’t think any Wolverine can run over
them in
this one. Michigan needs to contain Juice Williams who accounts for
almost 300
yards passing and rushing combined. The second half against Wisconsin
isn’t
enough to convince me this team is ready for another solid effort.
Illinois
24-19
Arizona
State (2-2) @ California (3-1): Both teams suffered upsets two weeks
ago to
fall out of the top 25. It is still an important game in the Pac-10 as
teams
scramble to take advantage of USC’s conference loss. ASU has had a week
off to
recover from their sound 27-10 thumping against Georgia and has serious
issues
on their offensive line. Their leading rusher Nance averages a paltry
3.5 yards
per rush with 209 yards in four games, and Herring is hurt. Cal’s top
threat
Best also might miss the game with a bad elbow, but his backup Vereen
averages
8.0 yards per rush and has 279 yards on the season. There is a
quarterback
controversy going on between Riley and Longshore after last week’s poor
offensive output against Colorado State. In this one a big advantage
running
the ball is the difference and the Bears have a better defense than
most think.
Cal 26-20
Kentucky (4-0)
@ Alabama (5-0): Can anyone stop the Tide? This is the latest
challenge, but
unlike their opening win over Clemson and huge victory at Georgia there
is no
time to prepare for what the Wildcats bring. Kentucky has enough
defense to
keep this interesting, but do they have the offense? Considering this
isn’t
Norfolk State or Western Kentucky no they don’t. This is the Tide’s
first big
game at home and there is no chance they will disappoint the home fans.
‘Bama
35-6
Texas Tech
(4-0) @ Kansas State (3-1): The Red Raiders had a week off to bask in
the glory
of having beaten up four helpless opponents and continue their
undeserved
ascent up the rankings. This is their second of four trips outside the
state of
Texas with one being a visit to neighboring Oklahoma. If they aren’t
prepared
for the Wildcats this will be an upset waiting to happen. Kansas State
has
given up a lot of rushing (206.5 yards/game) but not much passing
(164.0) this
season. Obviously Texas Tech will be attacking through the air as they
average
over 50 passes per game. The Wildcats have done their share of scoring
with
outputs of 45, 69, 29 and 45 this season but certainly won’t be trying
to mach
touchdowns. Their goal should be keeping plays in front of them,
working the
clock and winning the turnover battle. This could be an even closer
game. Texas
Tech 40-27
Auburn
(4-1) @ Vanderbilt (4-0): I don’t think we really know how good the
Tigers are
yet. Their offense has been terrible. They have scored just eight
touchdowns in
five games including two against Louisiana-Monroe and Southern
Mississippi. The
Commodores have put their hat in the ring based on close conference
wins over
fellow middle of the pack teams South Carolina and Mississippi. They
also had
an extra week to prepare while Auburn was tussling with Tennessee.
Vandy relies
heavily on their running game, but it’s not going to work here.
Quarterback
Chris Nickson has 292 yards passing for the season
and that includes wins over Miami, OH and Rice. Chris Todd has
completed 58% of
his throws during a very erratic five games. The difference is that the
Commodores don’t have the defense to keep up in a battle of field
position.
This one could get ugly. Auburn 12-6
Connecticut
(5-0) @ North Carolina (3-1): I have taken up for the Huskies quite a
bit, and
unfortunately they are in over their head in this game. Zach Frazer
takes over
at quarterback on the road against a Tar Heel defense ready to take him
apart.
Their only chance is to ride Donald Brown and while I see him getting
his yards
I also see North Carolina doing plenty of damage on offense. Yet
another close
game, but this time Connecticut is on the short end. UNC 24-17
Oregon
(4-1) @ USC (2-1): Early season upset losses have taken the luster out
of quite
a few games this week and perhaps none more than this one. The Ducks
are trying
to survive a much talked about “curse” at their QB position. The
Trojans don’t
have any excuses to blame their loss on, but somehow I think a bit of
their
anger might be directed to the other team from the state. Coming into
the
season this was considered the first of three potential home pitfalls,
and it
is looking more like a speed bump. If Boise State can pass all over
this
defense I’m pretty sure USC can figure out on tape how to duplicate
that effort.
They want to make a statement and their opponent isn’t in a position to
do
anything about it. USC 38-10
Ohio State
(4-1) @ Wisconsin (3-1): You won’t hear the Badgers admit it, but up
19-0 at
Michigan I have to wonder if their thoughts started wandering towards
this
game. It always surprises me when a team with a quality running back
like P.J.
Hill can’t grind out victories with big leads. I have really bad news
for the
Big Ten after the Buckeyes opened conference play stomping Minnesota
last week.
They are back and really, really angry. This is only their second road
game of
the season and we all know how the first one turned out. However, now
Pryor and
Wells are in the mix full time. It’s a huge difference and if Wisconsin
can’t
put away the Wolverines I can’t back them here. OSU 24-16
Texas (4-0)
@ Colorado (3-1): Things are going so well for the Longhorns every game
is the
same old story. Colt McCoy makes plays passing and running, and they
win 52-10.
That has been the score in three of their four wins (42-13 was the
other) but
it will be a challenge to duplicate the effort in their first trip
outside
Texas. This is one of only two such games all regular season with the
other
coming November 15 at Kansas. The Buffs are coming back from their
first road
trip and it didn’t go well. Florida State pushed them around in every
facet for
a 39-21 win. The biggest disparity on the stat sheet is run defense.
Colorado
allows more than triple the yards per game rushing (172.0) than Texas
(52.5).
McCoy gets lost in a conference loaded at quarterback, but he has 14
touchdowns
against 1 interception plus 69.5 yards per game rushing with another 4
scores.
He will do to them what Pat White couldn’t. Texas 42-20
Missouri
(4-0) @ Nebraska (3-1): The Cornhuskers have almost made last season a
distant
memory, and pulling this upset would certainly erase any lingering
effects.
Unfortunately their defense hasn’t made enough strides. Against their
first
real opponent last week, a stuttering Virginia Tech offense scored 35
points.
Chase Daniel’s Tigers might have that by the end of the first quarter.
I know
this is a road game in conference and a rivalry, but there is nothing
to
indicate anyone is able to stop Missouri’s offense. I can only wonder
how
Nebraska’s fans will be feeling after this one knowing they have to
turn around
and travel to Texas Tech. Missouri 48-17
