College Football Predictions - Week 5
by Gregory Cox
College Football Director
9/23/08

More interesting games so more picks.

#1 USC (2-0) @ Oregon State (1-2): THURSDAY - The annual "this is the best USC team ever!" talk is already in full swing. Who starts this ? A lot of people are bringing their last trip here (33-31 loss). Forget it, that game was a fluke. It took a 4-0 turnover deficit and giving up a punt return TD for them to lose on a failed 2 point play against a team who won 19 games during 2006-2007 with a solid front 7 defensively. They're gone. It's USC by a ton.

Connecticut (4-0) @ Louisville (2-1): FRIDAY - I have the Huskies #18. For some reason going 13-4 since the start of last year isn't a good enough reputation for the defending Big East co-champs. Their defense was shaky last week and now faces a Cardinals team gaining confidence offensively. This is a tough one and I'll stick with my ranked team Connecticut in one of their trademark close wins.

North Carolina (2-1) @ Miami, FL (2-1): Both have designs on challenging Virginia Tech for the Coastal division. The Tar Heels need help after losing to the Hokies last week at home. The Hurricanes gained confidence dumping Texas A&M and have lost only to #4 Florida. There is still much to learn about both teams. I take Miami, FL because they can limit the run and put a lot of pressure on Sexton/Paulus who are taking over at quarterback for Yates.

Minnesota (4-0) @ #14 Ohio State (3-1): The Buckeyes are favored by 17 1/2 points based on their talent - on paper. Their play on the field might not warrant being ranked (I have them cautiously #21) while the Gophers have posted 31+ points in each of their wins. Then again these teams were 11-2/1-11 last season which means if this was the opener the line might be 35. Neither has impressed. It is time for Ohio State to strut and it's overdue.

Pittsburgh (2-1) @ Syracuse (1-3): Have we forgotten about the Panthers? Such is the way, you're ranked this week and that poll is lining a bird cage the next. This could build some confidence towards their upset bid next Thursday at South Florida. Pitt in a walk.

Maryland (3-1) @ #20 Clemson (3-1): I'm not sure how good the Tigers are (iffy #26 for me). I know the Terps are better than advertised. Their win over Cal showed the talent of a team with 31 seniors and a future NFL wide receiver Heyward-Bey who is averaging 20.8 yards per reception. Clemson's hyped offense including their own NFL prospect wide receiver (Aaron Kelly) hasn't done it yet against a good team. I expect Clemson to win because they are playing at home, but it will be a fight.

Northwestern (4-0) @ Iowa (3-1): It's time to find out what the Wildcats learned by beating lightweights. Five total touchdowns allowed and under 100 yards/game rushing is impressive until you look at Iowa right there in run defense with just 3 TD allowed. Defensive battle? Looks like it might be and I'm going with Iowa who has played better teams plus has home field. They blew their shot at a ranking last week at Pitt. I had Northwestern as the next team to be added to my Watch List, they just missed.

Mississippi (2-2) @ #4 Florida (4-0): I'm not as mesmerized with the Gators (my #11) as others even with a paltry 2 TD allowed and 72.3 yards/game rushing. Tebow has lost his cape (199.3 total yards/game, 5 TD) and the lack of a power running game bothers me. They rely too much on big plays and overwhelming an opponent. What if the Rebels show some offensive spunk? Can a Gator offense that has been very flat at times keep up? I think so. If Snead plays well it's close otherwise Florida big.

#9 Wisconsin (3-0) @ Michigan (1-2): The Wolverines are in trouble and with Illinois coming to the Big House next week might be staring at a 1-4 start. They might need to upset Ohio State if they want to be bowl eligible. The Badgers are fully rested following a solid if boring win at Fresno State two weeks ago. I don't see how Wisconsin can't win because their defense should totally control this game.

Arkansas (2-1) @ #7 Texas (3-0): I've already picked this game (makeup from Ike) and it's a real shame the renewal of a great rivalry comes with the 'Hogs in absolute shambles. They might go 0-8 in the SEC and in fact I expect them to. Texas huge.

Fresno State (2-1) @ UCLA (1-2): This one interests me because the Bulldogs will be trying to prove they are in the same class as BYU who mutilated these Bruins 59-0. The Cougars got them at home, this is on the road but after last week's 31-10 shelling at the hands of Arizona on this field I like Fresno State to deal the Pac-10 another OOC loss.

Marshall (3-1) @ West Virginia (1-2): Are the Mountaineers this bad or can they snap out of their funk? The Thundering Herd have nothing to lose here and can be a pesky opponent. I have to take West Virginia who should follow this up with wins over Rutgers and Syracuse. That would put them 4-2 with a shot at season redemption if they can upset Auburn at home.

Colorado (3-0) @ Florida State (2-1): The Buffs are my #30 and certainly deserve an AP ranking if they can beat the 'Noles on their turf. FSU was a hot mess in their first game against an FBS team last week (Wake Forest) but somehow hung around by forcing Swank to kick field goals and miss a few. Very quietly Colorado could do some damage this season. They don't play Texas Tech or Oklahoma and will be in excellent shape for a bowl bid with this win. I'm going the other way though with Florida State in a rebound. Bowden won't be catching JoePa this season for sure if they lose this one.

Tennessee (1-2) @ Auburn (3-1): Are the Vols another loss away from being totally irrelevant? I think so and it is looking like the SEC has no real middle this season. Really good teams at the top, very mediocre teams at the bottom. Auburn lays it to them unless they're sluggish off the emotional loss to LSU in which case it's a close win.

Purdue (2-1) @ Notre Dame (2-1): The Irish are in the conversation even after getting run over by Ringer and Michigan State. They get an even split with 6 games at home and honestly could win them all. Then again, they could lose just as easily. Which way their season goes depends on the effort here. I like Painter passing Purdue to victory over the guy with funny hair coached by a guy hobbling around.

Colorado State (2-1) @ Cal (2-1): No real contest here, but the Pac-10 weight is firmly on the shoulders of the Bears who try to register a "W" after five losses by the conference to MWC teams. Cal in a blowout and when Utah destroys Oregon State it will mean a 6-1 mark heading into bowl season where other Pac-10/MWC games loom.

Central Arkansas (4-0) @ Tulsa (3-0): The visiting Bears have beaten teams you have never heard of and play in the FCS. Tulsa is on an offensive role and trying to win style points and work their way into the rankings. I have them on my watch list and they could break into the top 30 if other teams fall this week. Tulsa wins big and should win their next few easily.

#24 TCU (4-0) @ #2 Oklahoma (3-0): I have the Horned Frogs higher (#19) and if you don't know already they're one of just two teams to win at Norman since 1999 (56-2 record). TCU's only hope is a defense that has allowed a ridiculous 30.5 rushing yards/game, but against not much competition. Bradford has this offense in high gear and should get some big plays in a comfortable Oklahoma win.

Troy (2-1) @ Oklahoma State (3-0): I ranked the Cowboys #24 and their offense has certainly overwhelmed the opposition to this point. The Trojans were troublesome at Ohio State last week and would love to score another win for the Sun Belt after Arkansas State won at Texas A&M. I think they can make it interesting, but Oklahoma State pulls off a fairly close win.

#13 South Florida (4-0) @ N.C. State (2-2): The Bulls staggered twice against lesser teams from Florida and will be making their first trip outside the state. The Wolf Pack just ended East Carolina's potential BCS busting run out of nowhere. If USF comes out flat on the road can Grothe rally them? I think he will and South Florida is due to justify their high ranking, even higher for me at #9.

#22 Illinois (2-1) @ #12 Penn State (4-0): Finally we get to see the Nittany Lions against a capable opponent although I have the Illini lower (#27) and them higher (#5). I don't think this is much of a test. Illinois should not be giving up 163 yards per game on the ground after playing the likes of Eastern Illinois and Louisiana-Lafeyette. Stop now if you're emailing me about it coming against backups. Their backups should beat the starters on those teams. I love Juice Williams and he gives them a chance, but Penn State is on a huge roll right now.

#8 Alabama (4-0) @ #3 Georgia (4-0): It's our weekly meeting of top 10 teams in the SEC although I have the Tide lower (#13) based on Clemson not showing very much since they hammered them. Will the Bulldogs be tired after their first trip out west in 50 years? I don't think so, but being without their left tackle is a bigger problem in this one than it has been so far. I think both teams take to the air and it turns into a higher scoring game than we've come to expect from the SEC. I like Alabama's chances, but will stick with the experience of Georgia .

Virginia Tech (3-1) @ Nebraska (3-0): Both are on my Watch List. The Cornhuskers are making everyone forget what a disaster last season was. They are still giving up too many yards passing, but can the Hokies (99 yards passing/game) make them pay? Losing Morgan and Royal has literally grounded them. Their defense has stiffened since the opening loss to East Carolina and they have two FBS wins under their belt. I want to believe things are better for the 'Huskers, but for now Virginia Tech wins.

Discuss these predictions and the rest of Week 5 of the College Football season.