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If
the
exciting 2007 college football season has you wanting
more, here is a look at the early projections for next season. I have
compiled
top 25 polls from The Sporting News (Matt Hayes) Rivals.com, ESPN (Mark
Schlabach) CNN/SI (Stewart Mandel) and College Football News. Once a
team is
mentioned they are in. If they are not included in someone else’s
poll I give them a rank of 30 and then average out the results.
LSU,
Tennessee,
Missouri,
Michigan,
Texas Tech, USC, Georgia,
West Virginia,
Kansas,
RutgersTulsa
have all technically posted wins in 2008 already. It is no surprise
then to see
the nine of those teams who are in BCS conferences ranked in the top
25. and
Perhaps
also
proving how much analysts are creatures of
habit, 19 teams were listed by all five sources. I have included their
high,
low and average score with a piece of my own analysis. The term “OOC”
reflects opponents the teams play “outside of conference” and
I have indicated a key game for most teams. At the bottom are 12 OOC
games
which will shake up the rankings.
The
34 team
field is led by the SEC (7) and Big Ten (6)
although the Big XII’s
5 entrants are all in the top 15. The other conferences in
order of teams included are the ACC (5) Big East (4) Pac-10 (4)
Mountain West
(1) and WAC (1).
#1
Georgia: High (1) Low
(2)
Average (1.60): This year they will have no excuses for not making the
BCS
title game with a lofty ranking to start out the season.
#2
Oklahoma:
High (1) Low (7)
Average (3.40):
A ton of offensive talent returns, but the Big XII will be a minefield.
At
least this year they avoid Missouri
in the regular season, but instead get Kansas.
#3
USC:
High (1)
Low (5) Average (3.60): I’m
not sure a team with a new starting quarterback should carry
a high preseason ranking, but with their reputation it is to be
expected as
Mustain battles Sanchez for the job.
#4
Ohio State:
High (1) Low (7) Average (3.80): If there is such a term as an “almost
dynasty”
the Buckeyes fit into that category. Their season hinges on an early
meeting at
USC. Winning could set them up to be the college version of the Buffalo
Bills
if they lose another BCS title game.
#5
Missouri:
High (3) Low (8)
Average (5.00):
Chase Daniel is back to go after a Heisman and national title. If they
can win
their opener against Illinois
in St. Louis then look
out. Texas Tech and Oklahoma are off
the regular season schedule while the finale against Kansas will again
be
played in Kansas City meaning with a potential Big XII title game three
neutral
field tilts determine their fate.
| #6 Florida:
High (3) Low (10)
Average (5.40):
Tim Tebow tries to join the Archie Griffn club with another Heisman,
but don’t
expect too much from this team in the competitive SEC. Their OOC should
be a
walkover with post-Brennan Hawaii,
slumping Miami, FL
and The Citadel visiting them plus a “road” game at mediocre Florida
State.
#7 LSU:
High (6)
Low (8) Average (6.80): Obviously expectations are not quite as high
for the
defending champions who this panel picks as the third best team in
their own
conference.
#8 West
Virginia: High (7) Low (14)
Average
(10.60): Rich Rodriguez and his files are gone. So is Steve Slaton.
Still, they
are the class of the Big East until proven otherwise. With a loss to Auburn
to open the Mountaineers likely won’t be national title
contenders.
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#9
Texas:
High (5) Low (15) Average
(11.20):
There are at least five very good teams in the Big XII which isn’t
just them meeting Oklahoma
for
the conference title any longer. If hosting Arkansas
early wasn’t
enough they also draw Missouri,
Oklahoma
(in Dallas)
and road games at Texas Tech and Kansas.
#10
Wisconsin:
High (7) Low (15)
Average (11.60):
All the Badgers do is pile up wins, but at some point I’d love to see
them
take
the next step for a national title run. Their notoriously weak OOC
contains
only one minor hurdle, a trip to dangerous Fresno
State.
#11
Clemson: High
(8) Low (20) Average (12.00): The ACC needs a dominant team after an
awful bowl
season. With Cullen Harper at quarterback this might be their best shot
in 2008,
but it hinges on winning at Alabama
in a high profile early season opener.
#12
Auburn:
High (8) Low (16) Average
(12.40):
Somehow the Tigers never really live up to the hype, but here they are
again
with a high ranking to begin the season. Their opener at West
Virginia will define their year.
#13
Kansas:
High (11) Low (17)
Average (13.40):
Was 2007 a fluke? Now that Texas,
Oklahoma
and Texas Tech are on
the schedule we’ll
find out. They also visit South Florida
which won’t
be an easy trip.
#14
Virginia Tech:
High (11) Low (17) Average (14.00): The defense and special
teams have carried this team a long way. With Wisconsin
bailing on their meeting the Hokies don’t have much to worry
about outside of the
ACC.
#15
Texas
Tech: High (10) Low (23) Average (14.40): Graham Harrell and
Michael
Crabtree will be hooking up for a lot of touchdowns, but how good can
they be
in the deep Big XII? Their early OOC should prepare them as they host Tulsa
and visit Nevada, a pair
of bowl
teams, to start.
#16
Penn State:
High (11) Low (20) Average (15.80): JoePa has them going well again.
Their OOC
is ridiculously easy with three of four at home. The only decent
opponent is Oregon State
who won’t be
as good as they have been the past two seasons.
#17
BYU: High
(12) Low (22) Average (17.40): This is your BCS buster out of the
Mountain
West. If they can handle a pair of Pac-10 teams (at Washington. vs.
UCLA) in
their OOC they might go undefeated.
#18
Arizona State:
High (10) Low (NR) Average (17.60): Rudy Carpenter is back and as long
as he
doesn’t
bad mouth any defenses they should make noise in the Pac-10. However,
beating Georgia
is probably too much to ask in September, even if it is at home.
#19
Oregon:
High (16) Low (19)
Average (17.80):
I don’t
know if I can go along with this given that Dennis Dixon and Jonathan
Stewart
are gone from the backfield. Their OOC isn’t as tough as it was
last year, but they
do travel to Purdue and host Boise
State.
#20
Illinois:
High (16) Low (23)
Average (19.40):
I guess getting crushed by USC and losing Mendenhall to the NFL hasn’t
turned anyone off of the Illini. The neutral site opener in St.
Louis against Missouri
should do the trick.
#21
Tennessee:
High (12) Low (NR
twice)
Average (21.00): Obviously opinions vary on the Volunteers who like
many teams
on this list lose their starting quarterback in Erik Ainge. An early
visit to
UCLA shouldn’t
trip them up, but they open SEC play against Florida
(home) and Auburn (road)
while
later traveling to Georgia.
Those three games take place inside of 22 days.
#22
Virginia:
High (20) Low (NR
twice)
Average (25.00): The Cavaliers are building something in the ACC and
taking
advantage of slumping Miami, FL
and Florida State’s
demise. In an early bird opener against USC we’ll see how far they
have come.
#24
Michigan:
High (21) Low (NR
twice)
Average (26.20): There is more uncertainty for the Wolverines than any
time in
recent memory. They have huge holes to fill on offense where several
players
have taken their game to the NFL. After losing to Appalachian State I
don’t
think they can take their OOC lightly, even if it is Utah,
Miami
OH,
Toledo
and Notre Dame.
#25
South
Carolina: High (23) Low (NR
twice)
Average (26.40): Is time running out for Steve Spurrier to get this
team into
an SEC title game or at least close? The schedule is fairly back
loaded, but
the opener against N.C. State
is a game they can’t
overlook.
#26
Pittsburgh:
High (22) Low (NR
twice)
Average (27.00): This seems to be the surprise darling pick for the Big
East
that produced Rutgers in 2006 and Connecticut
in 2007. Perhaps it was kick-started by the upset of West
Virginia. There is a chance this team will
start 6-0
with home games against Bowling Green,
Iowa
and Buffalo while
traveling to
Navy, Notre Dame and Syracuse.
#27
Fresno State:
High (20) Low (NR three times) Average (27.20): Now that Hawaii
has lost Brennan and head coach June Jones the WAC has an opening for a
BCS
buster. The Bulldogs are capable of filling that role, but it boils
down to
beating Wisconsin when
the
Badgers visit them early.
#28
Alabama:
High (22) Low (NR three
times)
Average (27.80): Nick Saban can’t feel great about a
7-6 season in which
his team struggled in a bowl over an ordinary Colorado
team and lost to Louisiana-Monroe.
#29
Boston College:
High (19) Low (NR four times) Average (28.00): Most of the panel feels
the loss
of quarterback Matt Ryan will doom the Eagles even in a weak ACC.
However,
other than a post-Kevin Smith Central Florida and Notre Dame, both at
home,
their OOC should get them off to a good start.
#30
Wake Forest:
High (25) Low (NR three times) Average (28.20): Another totally
disrespected
team that has quietly won 20 games over the past two seasons.
#31
South Florida:
High (21) Low (NR four times) Average (28.40): Getting bombed by Oregon
without
Dennis Dixon likely turned most of the voters away from them, but they
will get
another opportunity to knock off a highly ranked team when Kansas
visits.
#32
Oregon State:
High (22) Low (NR four times) Average (28.60): I’m surprised to see
them mentioned even
once considering their front 7 is gone. An early season trip to Happy
Valley
(Penn State)
should put them out of the
rankings to stay.
#33
Cincinnati:
High (23) Low (NR four
times)
Average (28.80): It is amazing how overlooked the Bearcats are
considering
their recent success. Oklahoma
is
fantastic at home, but early next year the Sooners better be ready for
this
team.
#34
Michigan State:
High (24) Low (NR four times) Average (28.80): The Big Ten should be
improved
next year and the Spartans will be one of the reasons why. They can get
off on
the right foot before the calendar even hits September by winning at California.
A
few other
teams to watch out for:
Purdue:
Coming
off an 8-5 season buoyed by a 4-0 record against the MAC this could be
a
dangerous team with Curtis Painter entering his senior year at
quarterback.
Arizona:
Last
year’s
schedule featured 8 bowl teams and a 2-6 record in those games doomed
them, but
they lost three times by a field goal or less and 20-13 at USC. Tuitama
was
ninth in the nation with 3,683 yards passing.
California:
Their OOC features Michigan State
(home) and Maryland
(road) so we
will find out quickly how the Bears respond to losing their top three
wide
receivers, starting tight end and leading rusher. Talent remains
including
speedy tailback Jahvid Best and Kevin Riley might beat out senior Nate
Longshore at quarterback.
A
dozen games
outside of conference play which could shape
the bowl season:
8/30 USC @ Virginia
8/30 Illinois
vs. Missouri (St.
Louis)
8/30 Clemson @ Alabama
8/30 Michigan
State
@ California
9/6 Cincinnati
@ Oklahoma
9/6 Auburn
@ West Virginia
9/6 Oregon
State
@ Penn State
9/13 Ohio
State
@ USC
9/13 Arkansas
@ Texas
9/13 Wisconsin
@ Fresno State
9/13 Kansas
@ South Florida
9/20 Georgia
@ Arizona State
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