College Football Predictions - Week 12
by Gregory Cox
College Football Director
11/21/09


I guess you could call these the dog weeks of November. Yes, there are still BCS spots at stake. Certainly a few upset minded teams are looking to make their mark, but where are the huge games? Not this week that’s for sure. So coming off a decent week of picks at 14-5, pushing my season mark to 101-50, I am going to take a bit more of a humorous look at the action.

Minnesota (6-5) @ Iowa (9-2): The Gophers have a sweet new stadium. It’s a good thing they used that home field advantage last week to outlast South Dakota State or the Hawkeyes would be looking to send them reeling to a losing season and no bowl game. I don’t care who Iowa is starting at quarterback, their second string defense is better than what Minnesota faced last week. Drink a lot of caffeine if you plan on watching this game: Iowa 20, Minnesota 6

North Carolina (7-3) @ Boston College (7-3): I hope you like defense with breakfast, or lunch if you’re on the other side of the country from me. Both teams have given up just 16 touchdowns all season. The Tar Heels are a little nastier on defense, and peaking. They are also offensively challenged having punched it across the line a mere 21 times. I’m certain BC is going to be amped up for their home finale. Emotion can be a great boost. However, my lofty preseason ranking of UNC means I hope to heck they pull this out: North Carolina 17, Boston College 15

Oklahoma (6-4) @ Texas Tech (6-4): Um, yeah. This one is going to be a little less exciting than last year. All I really remember about that one was that going in the Red Raiders were talking a big game. Then the Sooners kept scoring touchdowns, much like they did against just about every opponent on their schedule. You could say a lot has changed on both sides. This is suddenly a battle for probably the fourth spot in the bowl selection order in the conference. I’m still feeling OU and last week’s 65-10 whipping of A&M showed their offense can do some things when there is no resistance. The Red Raiders are about as interested in defense as Marilyn Manson is in watching  football. Very, very quietly the Sooners have given up only 13 touchdowns this season and 15.0 points per game on the road. Defense in the Big XII? Yeah, just enough: Oklahoma 27, Texas Tech 20

Northern Illinois (7-3) @ Ohio (7-3): Since a few of the better teams are visiting the bakery this week, I have to dip into the MAC for a game pairing up teams with winning records. Actually, there is a ton at stake here. Both teams want to have a chance to win their division, but only the winner will have a chance. The Huskies have to do it on the road and next week at Central Michigan is no picnic if they want to win the West. The Bobcats have home field advantage here and next week against Temple trying to take the East. Honestly, I don’t think it matters because it’s going to be Owls and Chips playing for the MAC title. In a game like this I really only care about what the teams have done against the big boys, as in BCS conference foes. NIU split two games against the Big Ten, losing close at Wisconsin to open the season and beating Purdue, also on the road. Ohio was pretty competitive in losses to Connecticut (23-16) and at Tennessee (34-23). They’ve also lived on the edge way too much. Four of their wins are by 7 points or less, so they lose close this time: Northern Illinois 31, Ohio 27

Iowa State (6-5) @ Missouri (6-4): This time last year everyone was falling over about how great the Big XII was. Now it is a pile of mediocrity other than Texas. The Cyclones managed to qualify for a bowl game by beating Colorado, on the heels of losing consecutive games by a combined 69-18. I’m sure a handful of people will be excited to see them play in a bowl, what with them having allowed 41 touchdowns and over 400 yards per game. The Tigers are in the money again, and can work their way up the ladder a bit with a win here and against Kansas next week. Their offense has found a groove lately and should be able to score more than enough to win this one: Missouri 31, Iowa State 17

Air Force (7-4) @ BYU (8-2): I don’t think anyone knows how close the Falcons are to being much more highly regarded in the national picture. They were up 10-3 into the fourth quarter at Minnesota, who was opening their new stadium and rallied to win by 7. Close road losses to Navy (16-13) and Utah (23-16) and a home setback to TCU (20-17) are the only other games they dropped. All of those teams are bowl eligible. The flip side is having zero wins against teams with a winning record. They will get some respect with a win here. The Cougars never seem to get any respect even as the wins pile up. Sure, they get ranked. Does anyone really fear them though? When they almost lost at pitiful New Mexico last week everyone scoffed. Every time people doubt this team it seems like they roll. I don’t see the Falcons getting worked over though. They want their respect and will almost get it: BYU 28, Air Force 21

Wisconsin (8-2) @ Northwestern (7-4): The Wildcats have been getting done of late, winning 5 of 7 including the huge upset of Iowa. Just don’t pay too much attention to how they have managed to win those games and you will still be impressed as they try stealing fourth place in the Big Ten. The Badgers have snuck by a few teams as well, and even if the conference title is out of reach because Ohio State beat them last month it says a lot that they go into this game with a shot to share the conference crown. As long as they are not playing elite teams Wisconsin is just fine. They run for 202 yards a game and pass for 208. This could be a nice statement game for them. I’m not saying a win here and in the finale at Hawaii puts them in the BCS as an at-large, but 10-2 leaves them a bowl victory away from possibly finishing in the top 10. They can’t blow it here: Wisconsin 34, Northwestern 24

Penn State (9-2) @ Michigan State (6-5): The Spartans are like the little train that almost could. Three of their losses are by a total of 8 points, and the two others are by 8 points each. Eight is the magic number because the Nittany Lions have won 8 times by at least 18 points. Last week’s 31-20 win over Indiana was their closest victory of the season. Just don’t put a big game in front of them right? Or in East Lansing where their defense acts like the green in the Spartan uniforms is kryptonite. It’s kind of a amazing PSU is still in the running for an at-large BCS bid. Even if this win does put them at 10-2 and possibly in the top 10 what exactly have they done? I mean other than losing to the best two teams on their schedule and playing a quartet of crash test dummies in non-conference play. They will find a way to win, but the BCS is better off with Boise State getting their bid: Penn State 31, Michigan State 21

LSU (8-2) @ Mississippi (7-3): The Tigers are in a strange spot. Even if they go 10-2 and finish comfortably in the top 10 there is no shot at the BCS because only two teams from one conference can get the suitcase full of money. Vying for third place is just so exciting! My point is, it’s not. LSU needs to be up for this game and I’m not convinced they will be. The Rebels, on the other hand, can wipe out a very disappointing season thus far and stay on track for a 10-win season if they win their bowl game. McCluster is in the mix, Jefferson might not be. Is there anything else to discuss? It’s an upset. A big one because as much as I jab at LSU for being so sluggish I think they’re a really good team. Ole Miss seems just good enough to tease me into thinking they are going to win a game like this. I’m dumb enough to buy it apparently: Mississippi 19, LSU 17

California (7-3) @ Stanford (7-3): The Big Game is, well, big again. Usually it’s just about an axe passed back and forth by a bunch of nerds. This year it should have been against one of the top bruising running backs and one of the top explosive running backs in the country. Instead Best is out with a concussion, no doubt talking to smart people who are telling him how much he can make in the NFL instead of banging around with idiot college kids who throw his body into the air. That leaves Gerhart pounding away at a Cal defense that has been a huge disappointment. The glaring comparison here is that Stanford has just put up 50+ on Oregon and USC, the two teams that held Cal’s offense to exactly 3 points each. I would like this one to be close. It’s fun to imagine a dramatic finish, even if it doesn’t involve the marching band. Forget it, there is too much at stake for the Cardinal to come out flat at home: Stanford 34, California 20

Kansas State (6-5) @ Nebraska (7-3): This game is like two turkeys fighting for a spot in line on Thanksgiving Day. No one really cares who wins the Big XII North do they? These are the only two teams in the division without a losing record in conference play. K-State has a loss to Louisiana-Lafayette on their resume, a team known as “La laugher” in that region by LSU fans. The return of Snyder to the sidelines has been a success considering they are bowl eligible, but let’s not get too excited yet about them winning this game and pulling another Big XII title game stunner as they did over Oklahoma not too long ago. The Wildcats did just get hammered at home by Missouri after all. Then there are the Cornhuskers who have the most dominant defensive lineman in the country – Mr. Suh. With a little more offense they are 10-1 thinking BCS. Good grief they have only given up 10 touchdowns on the season and 280 yards per game. I would love to see them put it all together here and I’m picking them to do it: Nebraska 28, Kansas State 9

Kentucky (6-4) @ Georgia (6-4): How do the Wildcats always manage to get bowl eligible? Oh yeah, they play teams like Louisiana-Monroe and Eastern Kentucky. They did play Miami though. Oh, sorry, it’s the one from Ohio. Never mind. By comparison the Bulldogs are crestfallen to have lost 4 times. They usually coast to 9-3. If they don’t win this game, next week at Georgia Tech could leave them 6-6 and trying to avoid a losing record in their bowl game. I guess maybe Stafford and Moreno were pretty important to this team, eh? This is actually a tough one because Kentucky has been capable on the road at 3-1. The loss was close, 28-26 at South Carolina. Georgia is 4-1 at home, having only lost to LSU 20-13. The difference is playing for Uga VII. Their beloved mascot passed away and in his place will be a memorial. I know I’m trying to keep this picks piece light, but everyone knows I love dogs. They aren’t losing this one: Georgia 28, Kentucky 17

Oregon (8-2) @ Arizona (6-3): There is a lot on the line in this one. I know because it’s going to be at night under the primetime lights. Thank you ABC for telling me which games to watch. This is very helpful. There truly is a lot on the line. The Wildcats can keep winning and get to the Rose Bowl, but it would include road wins against rival Arizona State and USC who by then will be thinking “enough is enough”. I don’t think anyone outside of their inner circle really believes they can win the Pac-10. The Ducks are more like a pigeon perched on a post waiting to get shot at. They are two wins from the conference title, but either game could cost them. As impressive as their scoring assault has been, Oregon is 0-1 against the three teams directly behind them in the conference at 2 losses and the other two are next up. Everyone considers this a “trap” game in the desert. It’s true, the Wildcats are capable of pulling off the upset. They did it two years ago when Dennis Dixon’s knee couldn’t hold up and Oregon’s national title hopes were dashed. I’m taking the better offense. Grigsby might play and Foles might play well. They just don’t have enough offensive weapons to keep up: Oregon 38, Arizona 27