College Football Predictions - Week 7
by Gregory Cox
College Football Director
10/14/09


I saved myself last week by going 8-2, upping my season mark to a decent 44-30. It was a grind for me to find any sort of upset alert, and settled on the ugliest game matching “Big Six” opponents. The result was positive, because 3 score ‘dog Wazzu was at least respectable losing 27-14 to Arizona State.

The theme for the pre-Saturday slate is “no respect”. Out of the six teams playing all are 4-1 or 5-0, but only half are included in the Top 25. It’s easy to see why Tulsa is out, having lost 45-0 to Oklahoma and being an outsider in Conference USA. Four of the teams hail from the Big East and let’s be honest most of the conference has played a pretty weak slate which explains two of them not making the grade. However, the winner of these three games will take a big step forward this season not only because of sporting a 6-0 or 5-1 record, but because ESPN creates hype.

Boise State (5-0) @ Tulsa (4-1): The Broncos are under fire for not scheduling more difficult opponents outside of the WAC. This might be their only challenge left considering every conference foe has already lost 3 times. The Golden Hurricane will be hyped up to ruin Boise State’s season and earn a little respect in the process. Their only loss was an embarrassing 45-0 shutout at Oklahoma, who was going with Landry Jones at quarterback. In their defense, this is just the second home game Tulsa has played all season. Going on the road is tough in college football. I’m looking for a balanced Broncos offense to carry them here though and stave off the upset bid. Defensively they are going to make Tulsa one-dimensional in a hurry: Boise State 30, Tulsa 20

Cincinnati (5-0) @ South Florida (5-0): This game reminds me a bit of the huge Big East showdowns from recent seasons. Remember Rutgers-Louisville from 2006? That was a month later in the season, but this could have a similar feel. This is a pretty basic breakdown because it comes down to the quarterbacks. The Bearcats have an established star. Pike is on fire this season. He also faces a brutal USF pass defense. The Bulls counter with young B.J. Daniels who was thrust into the starting role when Matt Grothe was lost to injury. He plays a solid overall defense. So many close games come down to the turnover battle. Which guy is more likely to force a throw? I would say Daniels, who is also more likely to fumble on a scramble. How could I pick another higher ranked team to avoid an upset on the road in the middle of the week? I’m just dumb that way: Cincinnati 23, South Florida 20

Pittsburgh (4-1) @ Rutgers (4-1): The story here is that the Panthers under Wannstedt have failed to top the Scarlet Knights in four previous attempts. Early in Big East play Pitt leads the way at 2-0. They also have the edge of facing South Florida and Cincinnati at home. In fact, their only road game after this is at West Virginia. I’m not sure this team has the talent to take advantage though. If they are going to get on a roll it has to start here. Offensively Pitt has the balance to keep the chains in motion. Thus far Rutgers is not exactly lighting up the stat sheet despite playing the likes of Howard, FIU and Texas Southern. Their defense has given up just 35 total points since opening with a 47-15 loss to Cincinnati, but add Maryland (34-13 win) to the other three weaklings above and you can see why. The bottom line is that the visitors are much more prepared. They are also, well, better. Unless it’s one of those emotional efforts by the home team in the spotlight this will not be close: Pittsburgh 28, Rutgers 20

Oklahoma (3-2) vs. Texas (5-0): As usual this one is played at the Cotton Bowl and serves as one of the most anticipated games every season. Last year the loser played for the BCS title. You might have heard a little bit about the ensuing mess after Texas beat Oklahoma 45-35. Let’s not dig it all up in this small space, but suffice it to say the Longhorns have even more motivation to beat their rivals. A BCS title game appearance would be possible if they lose this game again, but it takes their fate out of their hands again. Everyone knows both teams have tremendous talent. Texas has a highly accurate quarterback in McCoy, but he has thrown 6 interceptions already. Oklahoma counters with reigning Heisman winner Bradford who got healthy last week against Baylor. The Sooners had the ball so much it was actually more than a game. Still, the problems for OU are the same. The offensive line is not dominant. Their star tight end Gresham is out. Combine those two factors and the running game is not where it should be. What was a high scoring attack has become, well, just like most other good offenses. On emotional alone I would take Texas. They feel they were wronged and if there are really football “gods” any break is sure to go their way. The Big XII probably hopes it does as well because what good comes out of Oklahoma winning? It virtually guarantees no team from the conference plays for it all. I shouldn’t go conspiracy theory, but if it gets tight let’s see which way the calls go. It won’t be: Texas 31, Oklahoma 21

Iowa (6-0) @ Wisconsin (5-1): If lack of respect was the theme for the three primetime games earlier in the week, it is also the theme here. The Badgers just gave Ohio State all they wanted yet still lost the game on three return touchdowns. The Hawkeyes carry a #11 national ranking which is fine except that five teams are ahead of them who, you know, have already lost a game. Hello? Is anyone with a brain voting? It almost feels like the Alabama lovers are doing it. The Tide beat Virginia Tech, the highest ranked team with 1 loss. Then the Hokies beat Miami FL right? Well, the Hurricanes are #11 and #12 in the BCS polls despite the loss. If Iowa keeps winning they can crash the party, but the wins need to get more impressive starting right here. I’m not sure it happens for them. Stanzi leads a sputtering offense. He has thrown 8 interceptions and taken a dozen sacks already. Their defense has been carrying all the weight. Unlike last year, however, they are winning all of the close games. How long can it last? One game in 2008 that was not close was this one. Iowa wiped out Wisconsin 38-16. The change of venue and increased pressure of staying undefeated adds a level of difficulty. Defensively the edge goes to the visitors, but not by as much as most think. I’m looking for a low scoring game because neither quarterback is going to do much. Low scoring and close screams one thing: Iowa 20, Wisconsin 16

Marshall (4-2) @ West Virginia (4-1): Despite playing in the same state you can’t really call this a rivalry until the Thundering Herd come up with their first victory. The ninth time might be the charm. Since getting hammered 52-10 at Virginia Tech in their last meeting with a “Big Six” opponent Marshall has allowed just 57 points total in four games. The Mountaineers have managed to score 30+ in every game, but their offense has yet to fully click. Devine destroyed Colorado with 220 yards rushing yet like most small, explosive backs can be contained. Brown single handedly, literally, lost the Auburn game with 4 interceptions. If they get Devine going early and get the lead, as I expect them to do, Brown can go into conservative mode. I’m previewing this game because it is technically a rivalry and you should not be surprised to see an upset occur. Marshall can make their season with a win. I still like the Mountaineers more than most and believe they put the hammer down yet again: West Virginia 30, Marshall 14

USC (4-1) @ Notre Dame (4-1): Two pretty boy, blonde haired SoCal quarterbacks going head to head? Unleash the hype! Clausen has been out of Oaks Christian for a few years now and everyone knows that this time last year Barkley was quarterbacking Mater Dei. The schools are separated by about 80 miles and both field elite teams season after season in different division of the Southern Section. Clausen came to Notre Dame with high expectations and is finally living up to them. Barkley is barely old enough to grow facial hair and has already been cited as the reason for USC losing a game. An injury kept him out of the 16-13 setback at Washington. Speaking of the Huskies, the Irish just outlasted them in an OT thriller. Exciting finishes are the norm for Notre Dame as their last four games have come down to the final possession. It feels like this one will too. Both teams can put up yards in bunches down the field with these quarterbacks and talented receivers. The defensive edge goes to the Trojans by a lot though. For all their “problems” this team has still allowed a total of 43 points. Technically it is 41 because Ohio State scored a safety while the defense was on the sidelines. They have allowed just two touchdowns, both of them short runs. This game marks a big step up in the level of competition for Notre Dame. They are at home, but could they choke up a bit? I know USC will not. They are always loose, sometimes to a fault. One thing this team does not do is lose games outside of Pac-10 play. Part of the reason for that is the opposition not being familiar with them though and obviously it does apply here. Regardless, I’m taking them in another instant classic: USC 28, Notre Dame 21

Texas Tech (4-2) @ Nebraska (4-1): The ‘Huskers more or less saved their season with a dominating fourth quarter at Missouri last Thursday night. At the very least it changed the expectations from getting to a bowl game to winning the Big XII North. Losing to a team from the South division would not be catastrophic, but it will hurt them in a tiebreaker situation should Missouri beat them and also Kansas. For the Red Raiders this is about telling everyone “hey, remember us?” and regaining a little swagger. All of their wins have been blowouts against lesser teams. Both loses were close against ranked teams – Texas and Houston. Where do they really stand at this point? This is a good time to find out. If Texas Tech loses it might be difficult for them to finish 6-6 considering three more of their opponents are ranked (Kansas, at Oklahoma State, Oklahoma) sandwiched around Texas A&M and a season finale at Baylor. Can you imagine them going into that game 5-6? It could happen. Their offense is going to be put to the test by a defense sparked by “Mr. Suh”. He is a game changer. Something happened to this team in that fourth quarter at Missouri. They can do just enough on offense to get by and win it with defense: Nebraska 26, Texas Tech 20

Minnesota (4-2) @ Penn State (5-1): The Golden Gophers lost their chance to turn this into a potentially special season when they lost to Wisconsin two weeks ago. They will not return home to their new stadium, and potentially awesome home field advantage in chilly conditions, until Halloween. Going to the Horseshoe next week I would say being 4-3 for that meeting with Michigan State is a safe bet. They also visit Iowa in the season finale so even getting bowl eligible is no lock at this point. Their challenge here is to beat a stout defense with only one offensive weapon. I’m pretty sure the Nittany Lions are going to mark Eric Decker. When he is taken away what do they do? Weber is not very accurate and already has 8 interceptions. This is going to be a problem. Clark also has 7 interceptions, but playing with a lead changes the equation. PSU has beaten two teams with a winning record. Those teams play in the MAC (Temple) and Ohio Valley (Eastern Illinois). This would be their biggest win to date. Still, they are going to do what they always do and look good against a team they should beat: Penn State 31, Minnesota 10

California (3-2) @ UCLA (3-2): This is a battle for survival for two teams who were 3-0 just a few weeks ago. With four wins over “Big Six” wins in non-conference play between them the Bruins and Bears were looking forward to competing for a Pac-10 title. The loser of this game will be 0-3 in conference and really out of it. This is familiar territory for Cal. High expectations early in the season have quickly dissolved after early losses. UCLA feels much less pressure. A bowl game for them is a victory this season. Both teams have quarterback issues. Cal’s Riley is, upon further review, still very bad. Tedford has stood by him though. UCLA goes with Prince this week, having bounced between him and Craft this year partially due to injury. One thing the Bears know how to do is make bad quarterbacks look bad. Their secondary is solid, as is the defensive line. The main problem has been a one-dimensional offense. If Jahvid Best does not look like a Heisman Trophy winner they are sunk. It has been that was for two straight games now. Two games where a field goal was all that saved them from being shut out. Now they face a solid UCLA defense. This should be a game where points are at a serious premium. The top playmaker is the difference and one long Best run is enough: Cal 16, UCLA 13

Arkansas (3-2) @ Florida (5-0): This could be fun. Ryan Mallett, all eight feet tall (or something like that) will get a chance to impress NFL scouts against an elite defense. It’s a second chance really. The first one didn’t go so well. At Alabama he was 12/35 (34%) for 160 yards and took 3 sacks. He had 1 touchdown and 1 interception. In terms of NFL prospects this is an even tougher defense by most accounts. So while he has lit up the other defense he has faced this year, now is the time to do it and in “The Swamp” no less. I wouldn’t bet on it, but the possibility of a stunner is out there. That’s because Florida’s offense has been, by their standards, anemic. Tim Tebow is more Batman than Superman these days. The concussion proved he has no superpowers and simply gets by on sheer will and desire. His running backs are lightning fast. His tight end might be the nation’s best. His receivers, well, not so much. Only Riley Cooper has caught more than 7 passes and he is the only one with 100 yards on the season. One would think games against Charleston Southern and Troy, when the Gators put up 118 points, might produce a little passing. Nope. They just run teams over. If you can’t stop it, they’ll keep doing it. The ‘Hogs can’t stop it. When they get behind Mallett will be forced to air it out every play. You can see where this going: Florida 31, Arkansas 13

Virginia Tech (5-1) @ Georgia Tech (5-1): As I mentioning in my weekly rankings, the outcome of this game dramatically changes the outlook for the ACC Coastal division. If the Hokies win, they move to 4-0 with wins over both of their closest competitors having already beaten Miami. As unpredictable as things get in this conference they would have to lose twice to be denied a trip to the championship game. With home games against North Carolina and N.C. State, both 0-2 in ACC play, and road trips to Maryland (2-4 overall) and Virginia (2-3 overall) that seems unlikely. Now on the other hand, the Yellow Jackets can tighten this race in a hurry by scoring the upset. The Hurricanes would love them for it too. Suddenly it becomes a three-way race to see which team blinks first. The really weird stat here is that Georgia Tech has not beaten Virginia Tech at home since 1990. What? Last year’s battle of dual threat quarterbacks went the Hokies 20-17. Nesbitt and Taylor combined to complete 14 of 22 passes for 157 yards. Actually both players might pass a little more this week, as unlikely as it might sound for Nesbitt directing the option. Last time around he ran 28 times for 151 yards while Taylor was almost exactly half as productive (15 for 74) but of course won the game. The difference was Georgia Tech committing the game’s only turnovers (3). That’s “Beamer Ball” though. When you think you have this team beat, one mistake turns the tide. I love what the Yellow Jackets can do on offense. As long as they can get going early and stay within striking distance on the scoreboard this team is a threat to win every game. This is their only home game in the month of October and comes on the heels of two explosive wins at Mississippi State and Florida State where they scored a combined 91 points. Call me crazy, but the two times Virginia Tech left their home stadium they were clocked by Alabama and nearly upset by Duke. I’m going with the upset: Georgia Tech 24, Virginia Tech 23

Stanford (4-1) @ Arizona (3-2): The Cardinal fell out of first place in the Pac-10 by losing at Oregon State. The Wildcats suffered a much more bitter loss at Washington, blowing a 33-21 lead when a fluke deflection (since disputed as possibly a bad call) ended up in a “pick six”. In the process they found out Foles is their quarterback this season. Historically the conference is built on quarterback play and after a sluggish start to 2009 it is shaping up that way again. Stanford has a winner in young Andrew Luck. Foles, who also played his high school ball in Texas, is more of a game changer at this point having completed 71.7% of his throws. His ability to make plays down the field is the difference. Stanford’s Gerhart leads the nation with 746 rushing yards, but Arizona’s Grigsby averages 7.6 yards per carry. No one with more carries than his 55 has a better average. Both run defenses are pretty good, which is why I put it on the quarterbacks. Back at home after three straight on the road and piping hot over the controversial loss I expect the Wildcats to rebound behind their defense: Arizona 29, Stanford 20

South Carolina (5-1) @ Alabama (6-0): Years back, looking at the head coaches this would be Florida-LSU right? Both coaches left for the NFL, Spurrier failing with the Redskins and Saban doing the same with the Dolphins. The difference is that Saban is quickly back directing a national power while Spurrier just scratches his head with his visor after another disappointing season. With all due respect to their “big” upset win over Mississippi, this is USC’s chance to change their national perception. Right now they are just a great defense and bowl contender. Alabama has an overpowering defense and are probably the best team in the country. Beating them on their field is going to take a perfect effort. Garcia has played much better this season with an improvement in his accuracy and only 3 interceptions. He has also taken 15 sacks and will be under duress all game in hostile territory. It is likely to turn him into the 2008 version of himself. The Tide can move the ball on offense, despite criticisms of their “poor” showing against a Mississippi defense playing as if their lives depended on preventing touchdowns. It’s going to be a typical SEC grind. First team to 10 points wins? How about first team to score? I might not be joking: Alabama 16, South Carolina 6

Missouri (4-1) @ Oklahoma State (4-1): In 2008 the Tigers were national title contenders until they lost a 28-23 thriller to these Cowboys. This year OSU had their hopes dashed before the hype had a chance to build, falling 45-35 to Houston at home. Now their problems include trying to get offensive stars on the field. It looks like injured running back Kendall Hunter will be back. Stud receiver Dez Bryant will not as he continues to be ineligible after lying to the NCAA about going to the house of Deion Sanders in what has to be most ridiculous suspension I have ever heard of. Without him, the offense becomes more predictable. I do feel like the tough part, getting their first win with Bryant out, is behind them. They also did it on the road, slugging past a bad Texas A&M team 36-31. Conversely the Tigers are travelling on the heels of a nightmare fourth quarter effort at Nebraska. They went from dominating, up 12-0 to losing by 15 points. In the process their confidence waned. On the road I think it becomes a factor here. Mizzou has gotten by thus far against teams who are not very good. As vulnerable as the home team might seem, they are still better: Oklahoma State 31, Missouri 20


Upset Alert: This is where I list teams in danger of losing despite being a big favorite.

Kansas (5-0) @ Colorado (1-4): I must be crazy putting a team in my Top 10 on upset alert, but I’ve got the Jayhawks there for piling up wins. They have yet to play a team of note. In their past two games (both at home) they skated by Southern Miss 35-28 and Iowa State 41-36. For all their offensive star power they sure look vulnerable for a road shocker to drop them off the list of undefeated teams. The Buffs might have one big game in them now that the difficult decision for their coach to bench his own son at quarterback is behind them. This is also just the second road game for the Jayhawks, who I expect to win by just a little bit shy of the 10 points they’re favored by.

Colorado State (3-3) @ TCU (5-0): Maybe the college teams from the Centennial State will be able to siphon off whatever is fueling the professional team nearby. Or maybe it’s just a coincidence my first two picks are from the same state. The Rams have lost three in a row against two solid MWC teams (BYU, Utah) and a surprising WAC team (Idaho) by an average score of 32-23. In other words they have competed and two of those were on the road. TCU is being given 3 touchdowns in this game and probably for good reason because they are at home where they have won 56-21 and 39-14, but both of those teams are terrible (Texas State, SMU). Other than getting on Virginia in the season opener they have yet to rout a good team. I think it’s another win that has voters reluctant to move them up.

Troy (3-2) @ Florida International (1-4): Yes, I’m going Sun Belt. The Trojans come in as double digit favorites. Even if they are the standout team in this dismal conference I don’t think they have earned it. FIU is playing just their second home game of the season. The first was a high scoring loss to Toledo. I think the Golden Panthers will be up for this one and keep it close, maybe even win.