College Football Predictions - Week 6
by Gregory Cox
College Football Director
10/8/09


I had a pretty hard luck week in the picks department. The ledger shows 5-3 (36-28 overall) but how I got there was quite painful. I had Minnesota 35-31, and they lost to Minnesota 28-31. I had Oklahoma 26-20, and they lost to Miami FL 20-21. If both teams had just scored one more touchdown I look brilliant right? My other miss was going with Tennessee 17-14. Auburn won 26-22 as a little more points went up than I expected. On the plus side I was pretty close on my scores for Stanford over UCLA (22-17 pick, 24-16 actual) LSU over Georgia (19-17, 20-13) and Ohio State over Indiana (24-10, 33-14) so it was not all bad.

Nebraska (3-1) @ Missouri (4-0): The Tigers have unexpectedly inserted themselves into the Big XII North race. Everyone, including me, had them taking a step back after winning the division because much of their offense left. It seems like the ‘Huskers have taken a step forward this year, but do we really know yet? Sure, they almost beat Virginia Tech. Their offense hinges a little too much on Helu’s running now that Lucky has graduated and Castille has been suspended. If Missouri can shut him down the visitors are in trouble. Maybe it won’t be 52-17 loss trouble like last year in Lincoln, but trouble nonetheless. Their focus will be on stopping the run. Nebraska will be trying to keep Gabbert’s passing in check. Thus far their defense has held quarterbacks to a very low completion percentage (50.4%) and only 1 touchdown pass. Unfortunately those stats were piled up against three Sun Belt teams. I’m looking for the surprise team to keep rolling: Missouri 27, Nebraska 20

Boston College (4-1) @ Virginia Tech (4-1): No one and I mean no one expected this game to be meaningful yet again in the ACC. For the past two years the Eagles have beaten the Hokies only to lose out on a BCS bid by losing to them in the conference title game. Inspiration seems to have carried Boston College. Virginia Tech gets by on sheer guts at times, but has the better talent here. They are also more prepared, having already dealt with much better opposition. The dream season takes a detour: Virginia Tech 28, Boston College 13

Connecticut (3-1) @ Pittsburgh (4-1): It’s almost as if Big East teams winning make as much sound as a tree falling in the forest. Then again, collectively these teams have not beaten a single opponent of note. The Panthers biggest win is over Navy, who is coming off a bowl appearance but is certainly no power. The Huskies own a win over Baylor. Because the Big East has just eight teams almost all of the conference action is upcoming. I’m not seeing either of these teams having much to say about the title. I like UConn’s ability to control the advantage in rushing yards and squeeze out the upset win: Connecticut 19, Pittsburgh 17

Oregon (4-1) @ UCLA (3-1): Both teams have an issue at the quarterback position. The Ducks will turn to Costa which removes the rushing threat of Masoli who has an injured knee. The Bruins are clearly much better off with Prince, trying to play while recovering from a broken jaw, compared to Craft. The slight defensive advantage goes to UCLA, and could be accentuated with the home crowd behind them. However, I think it is offset by the offensive creativity Oregon brings to the table. It seems like every play they have tried in two Pac-10 routs has worked. This is going to be a tough one, but I look for the Ducks to keep their resurgence going: Oregon 26, UCLA 17

Wisconsin (5-0) @ Ohio State (4-1): The visiting Badgers have been shunned by the AP voters who decided 13 teams who have already lost, one with two losses, are worth ranking while Wisconsin is not. This is their chance to prove them wrong. Another hot is one thing. Winning at the Horseshoe is quite another. Ohio State’s defense is leaps and bounds better than anything Wisconsin has faced this season. The last time they met in this stadium Chris “Beanie” Wells paced a 38-17 rout. I’m not looking for that much of a blowout this time, but it will be convincing and put the Badgers in their place: Ohio State 31, Wisconsin 16

Alabama (5-0) @ Mississippi (3-1): If only the Rebels had beaten South Carolina we would have been treated to even more SEC hype this Saturday. This would have been the second game in the conference featuring two top 5 teams squaring off. Instead it is still being given a heavy dose of attention as Ole Miss tries to turn away the Tide for the first time since Eli Manning was their quarterback a half dozen years ago. Now they have another potential NFL signal caller at the helm, but let’s just say Jevan Snead’s last effort in the spotlight was less than inspiring. I expect the ‘Bama defense to make his life just as difficult as South Carolina’s did. Even with opponents like Memphis, Southeastern Louisiana and Vanderbilt on the schedule Mississippi’s offense has been lackluster. They can turn it around here, but I’m not in the business of predicting the unlikely: Alabama 24, Mississippi 13

Stanford (4-1) @ Oregon State (3-2): The Beavers have been overlooked despite consistently solid showings the past two seasons, finishing a combined 19-8. Now the Cardinal are finding it tough to get attention in the Pac-10 with everyone’s focus on USC, Oregon and California. This season, other than Washington State, every team in the conference is competitive and has a chance to win against just about anyone else. Usually parity like this wreaks havoc in the “respect” department when teams beat each other up. This is probably going to be the case here. Oregon State has enough defense to contain Gerhart and actually enough offense with the Rodgers brothers to keep him off the field. It’s tough for me to imagine the Beavers losing three straight at home: Oregon State 30, Stanford 24

TCU (4-0) @ Air Force (3-2): With each passing week the pressure mounts on the undefeated Horned Frogs. This is a particularly dicey challenge on the road against the option offense. Confidence will not be a problem. TCU routed Air Force 44-10 last year. The Falcons are also probably a bit weary having spent three of the past four weeks on the road, capped off by a disappointing overtime loss at Navy. I think they are worn out and expect the visitors to jump on them early: TCU 33, Air Force 14

Florida (4-0) @ LSU (5-0): I fully expect Tim Tebow to arrive in a UFO. He obviously needs to make a more dramatic entry right? His concussion issues appear to be serious, but generally two weeks is enough to at least give it a go. His legend will only grow if the team leaves a little bit of doubt as to whether or not he will play. Death Valley is intimidating for 99% of the teams. UF is the 1%, even if they came up short in their last visit here. There is also the matter of 32 straight home wins in night games. All of this is fine except for something rather important. The Gators have more talent. Their defense is better. Neither offense is very scary. Obviously Tebow, assuming he plays, gives Florida a shot against even the toughest defense. It was refreshing to see the Tigers run the ball a little bit against Georgia. I’m not sold on them yet and this defense will challenge them. Just because anything can happen doesn’t mean it will so Gator haters should not get too excited if this one is close late: Florida 20, LSU 17

Michigan (4-1) @ Iowa (5-0): The Hawkeyes couldn’t blow out a candle these days. They do the Al Davis “just win baby” thing. The Wolverines had already exceeded their 2008 win total before finally dropping a game last week to rival Michigan State. It was also their first road game and not a good sign considering the Spartans have struggled. This is really Michigan’s young, exciting offense against Iowa’s stout defense. I’ll call it right now. The Hawkeyes win that battle. Turnovers are going to spark them and while this might not impress BCS voters it is another “W” in the ledger: Iowa 21, Michigan 16

Upset Alert:
Last week I was one up, one down. Syracuse didn’t threaten South Florida, but Washington did give Notre Dame all they could handle before (as I predicted exactly) losing by a touchdown. I’m not going to force any extra picks considering I already have Connecticut over Pittsburgh above.

Arizona State (2-2) @ Washington State (1-4): The Cougars are still the only walkover in the Pac-10, but despite getting overwhelmed a combined 79-12 on the road against conference heavyweights USC and Oregon they are much improved. I think they keep this one close despite being 3 touchdown underdogs.