College
Football Predictions - Week 1
by Gregory
Cox
College
Football Director
9/3/09
I could
easily be more excited about the impending college football season
starting. As
cool as it is to have games going on for the first time in eight
months, the
end result still bothers me. When all of this is over what is it for?
The
winner of the Big XII and SEC are likely going to meet for the
“national title”
because of the perceived strength of those conferences. Other teams
have a
chance of getting into the action with an undefeated record. Assuming
of course
said team is in a BCS conference.
Don’t get
me wrong. I’m not necessarily on board with a team like Boise State from the WAC playing for
the
national title if they go 12-0. In fact I really question why any team
outside
the BCS is considered “tested” just because they take on 1-3 opponents
from
within the BCS. If the Broncos are able to beat Oregon, which is basically
their Super
Bowl, why is that so special? Every team in the Pac-10 has to face the
Ducks
every season – along with the eight other teams in the conference. Even
the up
and coming MWC is still measurably much easier to navigate than any
schedule a
“Big Six” team faces.
This being
said, there is a really easy way to fix all of this. Just put all of
the FBS
conference champions into a tournament when the season is over. Rank them 1-11, leave the at-large bids at
home and get it on. Maybe even keep Notre Dame on the sideline until
they join
a conference. I see no problem with adding a game or two to the
schedule of a
handful of teams. More games should mean more revenue for college
football yet
somehow the NCAA fails to see it that way. So my excitement is
measured, but
I’m still excited. Without further ado here are the picks for the first
week. I
select games of interest, mostly matching up good teams. I avoid
obvious
blowout picks which other prognosticators use to pad their record.
THURSDAY
South Carolina @ N.C.
State:
This is a nice way to open the season for both conferences. Last season
the ACC
got the better of the SEC only to have the tables turned in bowl games.
There
are certainly bigger games on the slate, and neither team is currently
ranked.
However, both have gotten votes in the preseason polls and the winner
here is
likely to earn a spot in the top 25. In my expanded rankings I opened
the
Gamecocks at #34. They have yet to endure a losing season under Steve
Spurrier
so I felt pretty good about it. There is definitely more at stake for
them
because of the future schedules. N.C. State has patsies Murray State and Gardner Webb up next
while South Carolina deals with a rugged SEC
road slate
this season starting with Georgia.
On defense
the edge goes to the visitors, but the home team sports much better
quarterback
play with Russell Wilson. The Gamecocks had an unruly 27 interceptions
in 2008.
When Chris Smelley failed to get it done Stephen Garcia came in and had
a pick
himself in nearly every appearance. In the Outback Bowl he tossed a
trio
despite throwing just 18 passes. He should be better this season with
experience and is the clear starter this time around. It will not be
enough in
a road opener against a team looking to surprise. I see this as an
ugly, low
scoring game: N.C. State 22, South Carolina 14
Oregon @ Boise
State:
When these teams met early last season at Autzen the Broncos pulled off
a
stunning upset. The bad blood from that meeting will spill over onto
the famous
Blue Turf. Few saw the late hits and furious Oregon rally from a huge
deficit because
let’s face it if you are in the Pacific time zone eyeballs are
generally not on
your team. Knowing this problem the brainiacs in charge of this epic
meeting
made the start time 10:15 on the east coast.
Voters east of
the Mississippi will probably watch the
first half, hit the sack and catch
the highlights on the morning SportsCenter.
Revenge is
definitely the motivation for the Ducks, but do they have the talent to
get it
done? The offensive line is rebuilt and that is a problem, especially
when
playing their first game together on the road in a hostile environment.
False
starts could be an issue and they might struggle to hear calls at the
line as
well. Oregon also lost NFL talent in
their secondary and defensive line.
This is troublesome considering last year, in his first collegiate road
start
as a redshirt frosh, Kellen Moore carved them up for 386 yards and 3
touchdowns.
Even without a dominating line the Broncos seem poised to put up some
points
again.
When Oregon is on offense Chip Kelly
will be
trying to start his era off with a big win. Ironically their biggest
strength
is at quarterback. Jeremiah Masoli emerged as a star by the end of the
2008
season and will need to be at his best to keep up with Moore in what should be a high
scoring
game. For Oregon to win Masoli must make
quick
decisions with the football, either by handing it off, throwing it or
running
with it. On the plus side Boise State is also dealing with
turnover on
their defensive line, but their secondary is solid. The Broncos should
be able
to avoid big plays. I can talk myself into either team winning this
game
really, but the biggest question is how my eyes will react to the wacky
Oregon jerseys on one side and Boise State’s jerseys blending into
the turf.
If you are unable to see your opponent defending them becomes
difficult. It
will also be strange not seeing Ian Johnson suit up for the Broncos,
but the
offense moves on and so does the team – towards a possible BCS berth:
Boise
State 32, Oregon 29
SATURDAY
Navy @ Ohio State: I generally avoid these
“gimme”
picks, but the Midshipmen did win 8 games last year before losing in
the inaugural
EagleBank Bowl. It was a solid first season under Ken Niumatolo, but
this will
be a humbling way to start his second campaign. On offense their run
heavy
attack lost way too much talent to do anything against this Buckeye
defense. Ohio State saw several of their
back seven
defenders exit for the NFL. Most units would take a serious step back.
They
just fill holes with talented players and will lean on a ridiculously
deep line
until those players settle in. I see no way Navy can break through
against that
group. Defensively Navy stands a better chance to compete because Ohio State lost most of their
offensive
production to the NFL. However, with Terrelle Pryor at the controls
getting set
up in solid field position consistently this will not be a problem:
Ohio State
34, Navy 6
San Jose State @
USC:
The Spartans were well on their way to a bowl bid before falling flat
in the
final month to finish 6-6. Dick Tomey seems to have them in good
position to
compete in the WAC, but dealing with the Trojans is another
stratosphere. USC
will have freshman quarterback Matt Barkley on display and it is going
to be a
clinic. Their offense returns everyone around him although two injured
starters
are missing for the moment. Is there a better situation for a young
player to
assume than this? A lot of the focus has been on USC’s defense losing
seemingly
every starter to the NFL. Blue chip recruits are waiting to assume
those spots
and become heroes in their own right. A new defense and a Doogie Howser
starting
quarterback are only issues when a viable opponent is on the other
side. This
is a dress rehearsal for their trip to the ‘Shoe next week. The
Spartans saw
two corners and a tackle scooped up in the NFL draft. Their defense is
left
with no chance to stop this offense. The Trojans like to make
statements
early: USC 49, San Jose State 6
Nevada @ Notre Dame: Their lengthy bowl
drought ended
with a beat down of Hawaii. Now the Irish open against another WAC
opponent.
The Wolf Pack lost a high scoring Humanitarian Bowl to Maryland and
this season
they are considered by some to be a legitimate contended to dethrone
Boise
State. There are medications available to treat such conditions. Nevada
has a
good quarterback in Colin Kaepernick who is coming off a season with 39
touchdowns
and nearly 4,000 yards when combining his rushing and passing efforts.
He will
not outshine Jimmy Clausen in this one though because Notre Dame has
far
superior targets outside.
This is
perhaps an overused stance, but I believe it holds true. Like them or
not
college football is more interesting when the Irish are competitive.
They are
going to do it this season. It might not be a 10-2 ride to a BCS bowl,
but
anything short of 8-4 will be surprising. Their schedule has been
called soft.
Personally, unless my counting is off I see 7 bowl teams from last year
on the
slate. This does not count trips to Michigan, Purdue and Stanford who
at the
very least play in BCS conferences and pose a threat. It is not a top
heavy,
murderer’s row of opponents, but people need to quit calling this a
cakewalk.
This game on the other hand is going to get out of hand before some
late
scoring by the visitors makes it respectable. I have visions of
Nevada’s last
big road game, a 69-17 thrashing at Missouri, in my head: Notre Dame
37, Nevada
20
Western Michigan @
Michigan:
I am taking liberty by including
this pick. The Wolverines are not the team coming off a bowl bid. In
fact, the visiting
Broncos went 9-4 last season with all of their setbacks coming against
teams
who went bowling. Senior quarterback Tim Hiller threw 522 passes and
wound up
with 3,725 yards and 36 touchdowns against only 10 interceptions. Any
time only
1.9% of your passes are picked off it is a good thing. He will break
the MAC
record for touchdown passes this season, and considering the handful of
NFL
signal callers from the conference in recent seasons it will be a mark
he can
be very proud of. On the other side of the field there is a true
freshman (as
opposed to the always dangerous false freshman) in Tate Forcier trying
to help
Rich Rodriguez recover from a shameful offensive showing.
Experience
and skill at quarterback gives the visitors a fighting chance. Last
year they
opened at Nebraska, another proud former power trying to regain their
swagger.
The Cornhuskers opened up a 34-10 halftime lead and cruised home.
Hiller’s 342 passing
yards were hardly a factor. Michigan needs to have a fast start and get
the
crowd at the Big House involved. They have suffered enough stunning
home losses
in recent seasons and for the sake of their fans I will not list them.
Another
will be added to the list if their defense is unable to rattle Hiller
and the
offense struggles. This is going to be an interesting game to watch
unfold and
I see history repeating itself. Welcome back Wolverines, at least for
this
week: Michigan 31, Western Michigan 17
Baylor @ Wake Forest: The Bears are
considered a sleeper
in the Big XII. The better term is spoiler in the loaded South
division. Robert
Griffin is an athlete I have kept an eye on since high school when he
was a
standout 300 meter hurdler and challenged the national record in the
event. He
loses the protection of #2 overall NFL pick Jason Smith at left tackle.
Having
his blindside taken care of helped him start his college career with 8
games
without an interception. Even with superior scrambling ability he was
still
sacked 28 times. Four of his five big games rushing the ball came
against solid
Big XII opponents, but last year’s early opener against the Demon
Deacons was
forgettable. Wake Forest won 41-13, limiting Griffin to 125 yards
passing and
29 yards rushing. Their defense is not as good this time around,
starting with
linebacker Aaron Curry who was taken shortly after Smith at #4 overall,
and
cornerback Alphonso Smith.
Riley
Skinner is at the controls for a team dying to gain some respect
despite
consistently fielding competitive teams in the ACC since he showed up.
His
final season sets up quite well considering there is only one road game
prior
to mid-October. The offense should be better at finishing this time
around even
if there is no clear #1 receiver at the moment. When two quality
quarterbacks
are paired up excitement is bound to follow. Griffin is just not good
enough to
carry the Bears on the road at this point though, so while it will not
be
another rout their hopes of a surprise bowl bid take an early hit: Wake
Forest
30, Baylor 20
Georgia @ Oklahoma State: Games like this are too
few and
far between in college football. Most people perceive the SEC and Big
XII to be
the best conferences and while neither team is a favorite to finish
atop the
dozen teams in their respective conference both will be a factor. The
star
power is gone from the Bulldog offense with backfield mates Matthew
Stafford
and Knowshon Moreno off to the pros at #1 and #12 overall, plus
receiver
Mohamed Massaquoi who finished fourth in the SEC with 920 yards. The
leader was
A.J. Green who as a freshman often wowed and is now the star of this
offense.
This is a lot of change to overcome even if last year’s stumbling
block,
offensive line issues, should be removed if players stay healthy.
Having a
senior quarterback like Joe Cox also helps.
Where the
Cowboys are concerned they get most of the offensive fireworks back.
Tight end
Brandon Pettigrew was a first round pick. His play against Texas
matched up
with fellow first rounder Brian Orakpo put a spotlight on his influence
blocking opposing impact rushers. Of course he also caught passes and
other
than standout Dez Bryant, who is looking like a first round pick
himself, there
are no proven receiving options. Kendall Hunter is an established
rusher though
and Zac Robinson is a capable quarterback in his own right, lost in a
loaded
conference of stars at the position. Also of note, left tackle Russell
Okung is
a top NFL prospect. The big question is how this group will perform
against a
defense from the SEC. Later in the season I think I would pick Georgia
because
their offense should get progressively better. Their defense, notably
the line,
gives them a chance to spring the upset. Eventually the Cowboys wear
them down.
Oklahoma State 27, Georgia 20
Missouri vs. Illinois
(St. Louis): The last meeting definitely carried more
hype, but any time two teams from BCS conferences hook up there will be
interest.
The Tigers had significant offensive losses. Leading rusher Derrick
Washington is
going to feel a little lonely without quarterback Chase Daniel, wide
receiver
Jeremy Maclin and tight end Chase Coffman in the huddle. Those players
will be
difficult to replace and without the ability to put up a lot of points
their
already average defense is going to be under pressure. Two levels of
that unit
lost significant talent as well with safety William Moore and tackle
Evander
“Ziggy” Hood going to the NFL. The defensive leader will be linebacker
Sean
Weatherspoon by a mile, but he will be worn out in many games trying to
cover
too much ground left open by inferior teammates.
The first
player to tire him out will be Juice Williams. His fourth and final
season at
quarterback could be special. He was a better passer in 2008, nearly
matching
his total yardage from the previous two seasons combined and is a
threat to
rush for 1,000 yards. Despite getting blown out when these teams last
hooked up
he did drop 452 yards passing. He will be looking to open his senior
campaign
in style and I look for him to do it: Illinois 34, Missouri 21
Louisiana Tech @ Auburn: Think fast. Which team
ended the
season in a bowl game? That would be the Bulldogs who won the
Independence Bowl
over Northern Illinois. This is a dangerous game for the Tigers as they
begin
the Gene Chizik era. Louisiana Tech is loaded with upperclassmen on
offense and
will not come into this game intimidated. Auburn still has more talent
because,
well, they play in the SEC not the WAC. I am looking for a spirited
effort from
the visitors in what could wind up a defensive struggle: Auburn 19,
Louisiana
Tech 10
BYU vs. Oklahoma
(Arlington):
Technically this is a neutral site
game and will be the first football event that counts in the standings
played
in the house that Jerry Jones built. There are certain to be some
travelling
fans of the Cougars, but the home field advantage is heavily in favor
of the
Sooners. By now everyone knows the big game failures for Oklahoma in
recent
seasons. They lost to the best two teams they played last year and are
in need
of a BCS bowl win to quiet their detractors. It is going to be
difficult with a
rebuilt line, albeit one with possibly the nation’s best anchor in
Trent Williams.
Wide receivers have exited, but tight end Jermaine Gresham returns to
give
reigning Heisman Trophy winning QB Sam Bradford a much needed reliable
threat.
The defense is going to be better after taking a lot of heat, as most
of the
conference did, in 2008. No one seemed to have noticed Florida’s high
powered
attack was held mostly in check by this unit.
The Cougars
are trying to spoil the party. It will not be easy. Their offense has
name
recognition with quarterback Max Hall, running back Harvey Unga and
tight end
Dennis Pitta. However, only one other offensive starter returns, tackle
Matt
Reynolds. Obviously that means their offensive line, like Oklahoma’s,
will go
with four new starters. Their two-deep features just one senior and
inexperience should hurt them in enemy territory. Defensively the
secondary
loses three of four starters and wasn’t very good anyway. If Bradford
is given
any time to throw his campaign to join the Archie Griffin club will get
off to
a good start. I am looking for the Sooners to simply run them over on
offense
and terrorize Hall, who tends to shrink in big games, on defense:
Oklahoma 41,
BYU 17
Alabama vs. Virginia Tech
(Atlanta):
This is without question the
biggest game of the opening week. I am not as high as most on either
team this
season, and ready to jump off the Hokie bandwagon in the wake of
running back
Darren Evans being lost for the season. Still, there are cases to be
made on
both sides for a conference championship. Alabama had everything in
sight when
at 12-0 they were leading Florida in the SEC title game. After losing
they
suffered a humiliating Sugar Bowl blowout to Utah. The Tide lost the
heart of
the offense with left tackle, center, quarterback and running back
starters
gone. Without those players their attack becomes very average although
by
season’s end the difference will not be as glaring. Early on, however,
young
star receiver Julio Jones might be taken away with double teams because
Alabama
has little else going on.
The Hokies
are dependent on mobile quarterback Tyrod Taylor and the running of
redshirt
freshman Ryan Williams to carry their offense. I’m not sure that plays
against
a nasty defense. In fact, I’m sure it does not. Virginia Tech, as I say
often,
wins a lot with smoke and mirrors. Against a team from the SEC magic
tricks go
poof: Alabama 17, Virginia Tech 6
Central Michigan @ Arizona: This would have been a
much better
game last year when the Wildcats had record breaking Willie Tuitama at
quarterback to duel with Dan LeFevour. Now it becomes a dangerous game
for
Arizona to open their season with. LeFevour is a legit NFL prospect
opening his
senior season. He is tall enough (listed at 6’3” – we’ll see at the
combine)
and more importantly very mobile. All he does is pile up yardage
rushing and passing.
The Wildcats just faced another solid passer outside of the “Big Six”
in their
bowl game, upsetting Max Hall and BYU. They also are used to dealing
with
quality play at the position in the Pac-10. Their biggest issue is
overlooking
the Chippewas because they play in the MAC. Under Mike Stoops this team
has
been regularly stung by lesser opponents and considering I ranked
Central
Michigan #35 to open the season I’m not even sure they qualify.
The biggest
issue for Arizona is of course replacing Tuitama and his #1 threat Mike
Thomas,
not to mention outspoken first round draft pick Eben Britton at left
tackle.
However, there is enough surrounding talent to work with and the
defense is led
by a dynamic secondary. Central Michigan is the Midwest version of
Fresno State
who under Pat Hill declared basically they would play anyone, anywhere.
Their
road schedule is brutal for a MAC team and interceptions by LeFevour
will turn
the tide in a closer game than most expect: Arizona 27, Central
Michigan 24
Maryland @ California: Revenge will be on the
mind of the
Golden Bears who have high hopes coming into the 2009 season. It is
almost Rose
Bowl or bust for them at this point. The Terrapins were maddeningly
inconsistent last year, but were able to catch the perfect storm
against Cal. A
combination of the weather, early start and smash mouth football helped
them
spring the upset. Last year Cal needed time to wake up. In an
interesting twist
with the venue switching coasts the visitors might be ready for bed by
the
second half considering the game starts at 10 p.m. “their time”.
Their
strategy of run, run and run again will not be as effective. There are
those
who look at a trio of talented linebackers exiting Cal’s program as a
possible
weakness. Jeff Tedford is known for bringing in JC talent and has a
pair of
players already in line to step in, not to mention Mychal Kendricks and
Mike
Mohamed who are both bona fide stars. By the end of this night no one
will be
talking about losing Follett, Felder and Williams. Instead most of the
talk
will be about a lock down Cal defense. The secondary and line return an
abundance of talent which should make the turnover at linebacker
easier.
Maryland
loses their deep threat Darrius Heyward-Bey who was the #7 overall pick
by the
nearby Oakland Raiders. Hopefully he will stay away from Strawberry
Canyon
because this one is going to be hard to watch. Cal’s offense is not
intimidating, but when their defense puts them in position to do good
things
running backs Jahvid Best and Shane Vereen are going to close the deal.
Kevin
Riley is the quarterback for now, but the most important factor is a
great
tradition of excellent offensive line play continuing. There is a new
line
coach and his former team, the Cleveland Browns, took center Alex Mack
in the
first round. Even with minor issues to work out the home team is going
to roll.
I wonder if anyone will stay up late enough to see it: California 37,
Maryland
10
LSU @ Washington: I love seeing SEC teams
travel
long distances to play games for a lot of reasons. First of all, a lot
of areas
would love to see an LSU (or Florida, Auburn, etc) play in their neck
of the
woods. This is perceived as the best conference in the country so why
limit the
games to only a small portion of the map? In addition, the SEC needs to
show on
the field what they talk about in the media. Les Miles bad mouthed the
Pac-10
when trying to justify his team getting more votes than USC a couple
seasons
ago. It worked, but now that he has to play the worst team in the bunch
he has
suddenly gone into “coachspeak” mode. Miles has never struck me as
someone who
backs down from anything so I am a little disappointed.
The story here is the
return of the Tigers and the rise of
the Huskies from the ashes of going 0-12. Clearly LSU is going to win
this
game. Their defense has answers for anything new head coach Steve
Sarkisian can
throw at them, even with quarterback Jake Locker back in the mix. LSU
can win
games like this and should schedule more of them as an example to the
rest of
the conference. This means you Florida. Washington scared BYU early
last season
before Locker was injured. For some reason people think that means they
can
compete here. Let me clear it up. The only thing these two visitors
have in
common is the “U” in their three letter team abbreviation. The visitors
want to
make a statement for their conference and are equipped to do it. I’m
not
certain if LSU is recovered to the point of national title contention,
but they
will look the part here: LSU 38, Washington 17
SUNDAY
Mississippi @ Memphis: Let the hype begin for
Ole Miss.
Often an eye opening bowl win can unreasonably bolster expectations for
the
following season. In this case I see arguments on both sides. Jevan
Snead will
pass for a ton of yards because he has his targets back right? He
should,
unless the offensive line falters. First round NFL pick Michael Oher is
out at
left tackle and two other starters departed with him. The two things I
look at
on offense are the line and the quarterback. Snead might be a good
enough
quarterback to overcome growing pains on the line.
The Tigers
are fighting for respect on behalf of Conference USA having missed a
bowl game
just once in the past six seasons. They have some interesting offensive
talent
and of course home field advantage. Might they catch the Rebels napping
under a
blanket of their press clippings? Considering this is still SEC
territory I do
not believe so and in a rare Sunday game the nation gets to see the
team most
likely to derail Florida: Mississippi 31, Memphis 13
Colorado State @ Colorado:
I can’t put my finger on the reason why, but I really
like this rivalry. It seems like the games are always heated which is
to be
expected when in-state teams get together. The Buffaloes are mostly
focused on
trying to get back into a bowl game and possibly compete for a surprise
Big XII
North title. The division is certainly there for the taking although
Kansas and
Nebraska are favored. If they are serious about competing Dan Hawkins
needs to
figure out if his son Cody gives them the best chance to win at
quarterback or
not. Their issues pale in comparison to the Rams who had several
players vying
to start and finally have Grant Stucker ready to give it his best.
Making
matters worse their top two rushers exit including Gartrell Johnson who
simply
ran over Fresno State in the New Mexico Bowl win. On the plus side the
offensive
line looks good. This get together moves to Invesco Field next year and
it’s
too bad this game will not be there. I don’t think fans in that stadium
have
had enough quarterback controversy to deal with. Oh, I kid, I kid.
Regardless
of quarterback issues on both sides the Buffs are better than last year
when
they rolled the Rams, and get them on their field one last time:
Colorado 33,
Colorado State 12
Monday 9/7
Cincinnati @ Rutgers: College football four
days in a
row? I am in, although does Tulsa/Tulane on Friday night count? Anyway,
the Big
East gets an early start with the champs taking on a former Cinderella.
The
Bearcats are not getting much respect since only one starter returns on
defense. If you have yet to figure this out I am more concerned with
who their
quarterback is. Last season injuries plagued the position. Now Tony
Pike is
ready to impress NFL scouts with his senior season. He has a trio of
returning
line starters and legit #1 in senior receiver Mardy Gilyard. Their
offense
might need to score more to compensate for a weaker defense, but I can
see that
happening.
Speaking of
quarterback to receiver hookups, the Scarlet Knights lost theirs with
Mike Teel
and Kenny Britt exiting. Their offensive hopes now rest on holding onto
their
offensive line starters and key running backs. They should be able to
run the
ball effectively while waiting for the passing game to develop. Is it
strange
for me to pick against teams I have ranked who are playing unranked
opponents?
Not really, especially when they are on the road. The talent difference
is not
much. Pike might be trying to do too much in this opener and later in
the
season it might be a game they look back on as one that got away:
Rutgers 28,
Cincinnati 24
Miami, FL @ Florida State: This rivalry regularly
had
national title implications in the 90’s. Now it is mostly a nostalgic
event
(not even sold out as I type this) although both teams are showing
signs of
returning to the AP rankings on a regular basis. FSU opens the season
ranked
and if not for some wide receiver shenanigans off the field might be
coming off
an even better season. Their team is well rounded and more than
anything needs
consistency while avoiding suspensions for bad behavior. Miami slipped
into a
bowl game last year, but was nowhere close to the intimidating force
regularly
sending talent into the NFL they had been. Quarterback Jacory Harris
will be
the face of the Hurricanes for the near future. He saw time as a
freshman and
could be a three-year starter. The backfield of Cooper and James should
make
his life easier as the season wears on. Not in the opener though. The
Seminoles
have too much on defense for the youngster. This is definitely not
going to be
an electric 41-39 thriller like FSU won last year and a rousing win
could set
the stage for a conference championship run: Florida State 26, Miami FL
14
