College Football Predictions - Week 13
by Gregory Cox
College Football Director
11/18/08

It was a tough 5-5 week on the prediction front when several close games went the other direction. I had Virginia Tech 21-19, they lost 16-14. I had North Carolina 23-20, they lost 17-15. Air Force didn’t pull off my predicted upset of BYU. Cal’s projected 24-17 win at Oregon State became a 34-21 loss when the Beavers put up 21 points on 2 yards of total offense. Finally, when the predictions were out I wasn’t aware Florida State would have every available wide receiver suspended. Nevertheless, I start this week fresh.

Ball State (10-0) @ Central Michigan (8-2) – WEDNESDAY: I’m not sure how many people will watch this game even if it is on television during the week. As Thanksgiving nears most football fans will turn on any available contest and those who tune this one in are guaranteed a thriller. Each team has a capable quarterback leading the way, and the MAC West title is on the line. Ball State might be ranked in the BCS, but Central Michigan is actually the team looking to clinch the division. It would be their third in a row. The team will be fired up to be at home for the first time since October 18, a key 38-28 win over Western Michigan. Since then they have escaped three road games by a total of 7 points. Last week it took OT to get by Northern Illinois who these Cardinals had just beaten 45-14. Right now Ball State’s Nate Davis is getting most of the attention and for good reason. His team is undefeated and coming off a season with 3,667 passing yards and 30 touchdowns he is getting close to those numbers again. The yards per attempt (9.6) are actually up from 2007 when he had stud receiver Dante Love whose football career tragically ended two months ago. Only once has he failed to throw for 239 yards and he has six games with multiple TD passes. Then there is Dan LeFevour for Central Michigan. He had 3,652 passing yards and 27 touchdowns last year. This season his yardage is down as the team has thrown less, but he has just 3 interceptions. He also missed two games due to injury yet has six games with 2+ TD passes and four with 242+ yards passing in eight starts. Momentum is very much in favor of Ball State. They also have the defensive edge having allowed just 17 touchdowns all season. I’m not sure home field can offset that, and Davis finally gets over on the Chippewas in a thriller: Ball State 38, Central Michigan 34

Miami, FL (7-3) @ Georgia Tech (7-3) - THURSDAY: The Hurricanes just won a big game on last Thursday night at home over Virginia Tech. The Hokies had just won at home the previous week and were on the road. So can we expect a stumble from the Hurricanes because they leave the Sunshine State? I think so. This team has mostly stumbled along against the closer to mediocre ACC teams before turning in the big victory over Virginia Tech. They’ve been a play or two away from losing four games already that they wound up winning. The Yellow Jackets lost to both Virginia schools by a field goal and spent the week off preparing for a comeback following a 28-7 loss at North Carolina. I’m not sure anyone knows how the tiebreakers will work out if Georgia Tech wins this one, but they are very much prepared to do so. I can appreciate that the Hurricanes are 3-1 on the road. The Yellow Jackets are 5-1 at home and their run-heavy offense will wear down Miami in a typical low scoring ACC tilt: Georgia Tech 19, Miami FL 16

Mississippi (6-4) @ LSU (7-3): I sure wouldn’t want to be the Tigers in practice this week after falling behind Troy 31-3 late in the third quarter. Now their task is to build off of their miraculous comeback and secure a bowl bid appropriate for a team that just won the BCS title. I don’t know if their defense is up to the task right now. Ironically, before last week the biggest deficit overcome by the Tigers was 21-0 against these Rebels. If they get behind this week, however, it won’t end the same way unless we’re talking about fans leaving the stadium early. Ole Miss just rolled up a decidedly less threatening Sun Belt opponent Louisiana-Monroe 59-0 for their third straight win. They have a passer in Jevan Snead. He has only 4 interceptions in his last 6 games. They can cut him loose on this defense and build a lead. Their defense is also capable of containing Charles Scott and the LSU running game. Can they really lose a third game in Death Valley? I think last week proved it is possible and this week it happens: Mississippi 24, LSU 20

Boston College (7-3) @ Wake Forest (6-4): Based on computer rankings the Demon Deacons were actually #24 in the BCS before last week’s 21-17 upset loss at N.C. State. Kind of makes you wonder about these computers doesn’t it? After starting 3-0 this team has really had some problems although most of them have come on the road (0-3 since 2-0 start). The Eagles are now 3-1 on the road, but a painfully weak non-ACC portion of the schedule is the only reason we’re even discussing them right now. The only win worth noting was 17-0 over still rather weak Notre Dame. In conference play they caught breaks in beating Virginia Tech and Florida State. Their biggest strength is on defense. Honestly I don’t think much of either team right now. If Wake loses they could miss out on a bowl at 6-6 because Vanderbilt is their next opponent. If BC wins suddenly they are a home victory over Maryland from locking up the Atlantic division again out of nowhere. I just flipped a coin. It came up heads. I forgot what that meant my prediction would be. Okay, take the result which makes the least sense because the ACC is so unpredictable: Wake Forest 20, Boston College 17

Air Force (8-3) @ TCU (9-2): The Falcons didn’t come through for me last week so I’m getting one back by putting them on my list of picks this week. Besides, how often do you get to predict the result between a team allowing 39.5 yards rushing against another averaging 279.7 on offense? A similar meeting just took place in the NFL and the running team won out when the Giants routed the Ravens. That’s pro, this is college. The Horned Frogs won’t know their fate in the MWC because the Utah/BYU game is later, but they’ll be plenty motivated and take care of business: TCU 27, Air Force 13

Michigan State (9-2) @ Penn State (10-1): Rose Bowl implications will be a little clearer by kickoff. The visiting Spartans might be a little deflated if Ohio State beats Michigan, demoting them to the role of spoiler. They could still clinch a share of the Big Ten and potentially a BCS at-large bid though. Realistically I’m not sure the BCS is interested in them over Joe Paterno’s squad in possibly his final season. First they need to worry about springing the upset. This game will be decided in the running game. Penn State has the talent to contain Ringer, but the Spartans won’t be able to stop the Nittany Lions. PSU is recovered from a devastating loss to Iowa and should win this in relatively easy fashion: Penn State 29, Michigan State 15

Boise State (10-0) @ Nevada (6-4): Everyone has been assuming the final hurdle for the Broncos would be Fresno State in the finale. Instead this is looking like a bigger challenge. The Wolfpack lost just 35-19 to Texas Tech on this field early in the season. Only three times have they failed to score 41+ points this season. Two of them were against Big XII teams (they also lost 69-17 at Missouri) and the other was on an island during a 38-31 loss to Hawaii. When a team scores this much it puts a lot of pressure on the opposition. They have stopped the run and been susceptible to the pass, which unfortunately for them leads right into the hands of Boise State behind confident quarterback Kellen Moore. The Broncos can play defense having allowed just 13 touchdowns all season, and have shown an ability to score with seven games of 32+ points. They key will be responding to the early emotional charge put on by Nevada. They want to spoil perfection even if their hopes for a WAC title ride on Fresno State also beating these guys next week on the blue turf. I am seeing a great game and typical high scoring affair. I’m sure the BCS prefers to see them falter, but the Broncos are better than most are giving them credit and pull it out: Boise State 41, Nevada 37

BYU (10-1) @ Utah (11-0): Can the Utes become the first team outside of the BCS to play in a second BCS bowl game? It’s all in front of them now. Win this game and the automatic bid is theirs barring a major change of heart from the human voters and a weird quirk in the computer rankings. They will have earned it. The Cougars bring in an amazing WR/TE combo with Collie (1,315 yards) and Pitta (992 yards) who have combined for 21 touchdowns. By position they are #1 and #2 respectively in the nation for receiving yardage. Max Hall is fourth in passing yards (3,424) and fifth in touchdown passes (34). Among the highly rated Big XII passers only Heisman front-runner Harrell ranks ahead of him in both categories. Utah doesn’t match their offensive firepower. They have been doing it with defense. Over the past five weeks the Utes have allowed a total of just 57 points. The Cougars are not as good on the road, but this is a rivalry game. I know this goes totally against my just completed bowl projections, but suddenly I’m feeling the upset. I like the offensive weapons for the visitors: BYU 23, Utah 20

Oregon State (7-3) @ Arizona (6-4): The Beavers are rolling towards the Rose Bowl. Two seasons ago Cal had an opportunity to beat out USC only to falter in the desert when DeSean Jackson stepped out of bounds. The lost cost them their spot. Now everyone believes a similar fate will befall the Beavers, well, just because. Yes, the Wildcats are very tough in the desert and even better at night. They are 4-1 this season. The only loss was a 17-10 fight with USC, their last home game way back on October 25. I expect a fired up team, but while they’ve been great in pass defense they can’t really stop the run. Oregon State has playmakers in the two Rodgers brothers and Stroughter. Arizona counters with Tuitama at quarterback, but the Beavers play solid defense. You might be surprised to see them #15 in the FBS for yards allowed per game even after getting swamped by Stanford and Penn State early while their front 7 was getting broken in. I don’t think they escape the Civil War against Oregon next week, but do expect them to survive this one: Oregon State 27, Arizona 23

Iowa (7-4) @ Minnesota (7-4): The Hawkeyes are a few plays away from having a much better season. They did pull off the upset of Penn State and survived Purdue 22-17 last week, but prior to that were 0-4 in games decided by a total of 12 points. The Gophers have fallen back into the mindset of last year’s 1-11 team with three straight losses. It all started with a deflected pass against Northwestern that was returned for a touchdown. Instead of heading to OT they lost. The next week Michigan humbled them and last week Wisconsin beat them with an 18-0 run fueled by a pair of safeties in the fourth quarter. Greene is leading the nation in rushing and Minnesota can’t stop it. Iowa’s defense, on the other hand is stout. Hopefully the Hawkeyes will get a solid bowl pairing because they are better than most people think: Iowa 24, Minnesota 13

Pittsburgh (7-2) @ Cincinnati (8-2): I don’t think anyone expected this to be a game to decide the Big East title even if the Bearcats were strong last year and the Panthers came into the season with high expectations. October 25 was a pretty bad day for both teams as well. Pittsburgh lost 54-34 to Rutgers at home and Cincinnati was hammered 40-16 at Connecticut. In other words, just a few short weeks ago these teams were looking for answers as opposed to clearing out space for a trophy. Cincinnati has made survived by winning close games. Last week’s 28-20 win at Louisville was their fourth by no more than 8 points. Pittsburgh has three close wins this season, but also just dumped the Cardinals 41-7. It was a sharp contrast to having allowed 87 points in their previous two games. Pitt is now 4-0 on the road this season while Cincinnati is 4-0 at home. Something has to give because unlike the NFL there are no ties for the Bengals, uh Bearcats. Coming off two big road wins I think Pike leads this team to a win that unfortunately renders next week’s Backyard Brawl meaningless: Cincinnati 27, Pittsburgh 24

Florida State (7-3) @ Maryland (7-3): This time I really don’t care if the Seminoles have their receivers or not. The Terrapins are now 6-0 at home. FSU faces just their fourth road game of the season and third trip outside of Florida. They are coming off an emotionally draining loss and now face a reversal of last week’s emotions. Instead of playing in front of a homecoming crowd they are in a hostile environment. Instead knowing before kickoff Wake Forest had lost to put them in control of their destiny, this time the Demon Deacons will beat Boston College to take them out of it. I favor FSU’s defense, but on the road they will tire against the Scott/Meggett backfield. Heyward-Bey might actually be worked into the game plan for a change too: Maryland 20, Florida State 16

Texas Tech (10-0) @ Oklahoma (9-1): There have been some big games in the Big XII this season, but by far this is now the biggest. It’s even bigger than the Big XII title game in some regards because the winner of the South will be favored to beat Missouri and play for the national title. I don’t know how the Sooner offense can be stopped. The same can be said about the Red Raiders. It would be an upset if either punter comes onto the field. The lingering thought in the back of my mind is that Texas Tech caught Texas on the back end of their four game “gauntlet” and got them at home. This one is in Norman where the Sooners are 60-2 under Stoops. I don’t think the Red Raider defense can turn in a big performance on the road at the tail end of what has been essentially their “gauntlet”. It’s like déjà vu all over again really: Oklahoma 45, Texas Tech 42

Upset Alert: These aren’t necessarily teams I think will lose. In fact I expect both the home teams to pull out these wins. However, both are big favorites and of course anything can happen in rivalry week.

Michigan (3-8) @ Ohio State (9-2): The obvious reason for this one is the rivalry. The Wolverines are going to show up and give whatever they’ve got. Beyond that I think this team has played much better in November than their awful record indicates. The Buckeyes will win because they’re more talented and still motivated by hopes of Michigan State pulling an upset over Penn State later in the day to propel them into the Rose Bowl. However, don’t be surprised to see a close first half and possibly exciting finish if the Wolverines generate some offense or unexpected big plays on special teams/defense.

Stanford (5-6) @ California (6-4): It goes without saying that the Big Game has produced some unbelievable results over the years. This should be one of the better ones because the teams are evenly matched. The Cardinal can run the ball and play a little defense. The Bears have a struggling offensive line and erratic quarterback play. It should make for a very close finish even though the current spread is hovering around 9 points.