College Football Predictions and Bowl Predictions - Week 10
by Gregory Cox
College Football Director
10/28/08

I was 9-4 last week and more impressively two of the five teams I put on upset alert lost. Considering four of them (the exception was Michigan State who won) were favored by 8 ½ to 12 points I’ll take it. Before I get to the picks I have to offer a comment on what I think is a hysterical story. Apparently 15 players from North Texas failed drug tests. You mean these guys are 0-8 when they’re on drugs. Their coach is so fired.

Only nine picks this week because some teams are stepping out of conference to play weak opponents and others are playing teams with losing records. No upset alert this week because I don’t see games that warrant it. Instead I’m offering up what I think is a gutsy set of BCS bowl game projections.

South Florida (6-2) @ Cincinnati (5-2) – THURSDAY: This is a crucial game in the Big East. It’s hard to imagine the Bulls seventh in this conference ahead of only Syracuse yet are somehow the only team ranked in the Top 25. There’s a reason I dumped them from my rankings. USF has not performed up to expectations and until they do shouldn’t be ranked. This is a big opportunity for them on the road where they were 3-0 before last week’s upset loss at Louisville. Their other loss came on a Thursday so the combination of the two might not be such a good thing. The Bearcats had Pike back under center for the first half, but he completed only 10/27 passes before leaving. I doubt he will be available on a short week. Grothe helped the Bulls recover from a poor stretch last season and can do it again: South Florida 29, Cincinnati 17

Northwestern (6-2) @ Minnesota (7-1): I don’t think anyone had this one circled before the season as an important clash in the Big Ten season. However, the winner stands a good chance at a fourth place finish ahead of the likes of Illinois, Wisconsin and Michigan. The Gophers are the better story coming off a 1-11 season. Somehow they have given up more yards (362.8) than they have gained (356.1) but have a 27-14 edge over their opponents in touchdowns. I call that getting it done on both ends in the red zone. The Wildcats lost much more than a game last week. Leading rusher Tyrell Sutton is out for the season with a wrist injury. With their defense faltering in the past three outings I don’t think they can pull this one out on the road over a hot opponent on a roll: Minnesota 24, Northwestern 13

Miami FL (5-3) @ Virginia (5-3): At some point the ACC Coastal division race will be decided, but right now it’s a mess. The Cavaliers, who opened the season getting hammered 52-7 by USC, are suddenly the leaders and only team without 2 conference losses. The Hurricanes are one of three teams at 2-2 hoping to make a move and a win in this game would be huge. They have won three in a row, but UCF, Duke and Wake Forest aren’t exactly playing great football of late. Virginia has won four straight and their opponents have been much better. The past two were ranked when the teams met (North Carolina, Georgia Tech) and the third (Maryland) is now ranked. Somehow the mentally challenged voters who fill out ballots manage not to rank Virginia though. Let’s see, they beat three teams who think should be ranked inside a calendar month, but they’re not worthy of a ranking? Some smoke and mirrors might be involved because they allow 148 yards rushing per game. The defense has definitely stepped up of late and I’m not sure how the ‘Canes will react to just their second road game since September 20: Virginia 17, Miami FL 14

West Virginia (5-2) @ Connecticut (6-2): This is the other important clash in the Big East and if Cincinnati falls on Thursday night as I expect them to suddenly the Mountaineers can really settle in as the favorite with a victory. They regained a lot of confidence rolling over Auburn which was their most significant win of the season by far. The Huskies are also coming off a big win having struggled while losing the final two of three straight road games, scoring just 12 and 10 points in the process. They exploded for a 40-16 win over Cincinnati with a huge fourth quarter. I like their running game with Donald Brown quite a bit. He has 165.5 yards per game and 14 touchdowns. Noel Devine showed last week what a threat he is and averages 7.4 yards per carry, but has scored only 3 times total. Last year West Virginia laid the wood to Connecticut 66-21. White only threw 13 passes and ran for 186 yards. It was essentially the Big East title game because it came late in the season with both teams at the top of the standings. I’m not sure a result like that can be turned around so dramatically, but I’ll take a chance on it: Connecticut 28, West Virginia 27

Pittsburgh (5-2) @ Notre Dame (5-2): One of these teams will exit this game as one of the worst 6-2 teams in the country. The Panthers had regained a lot of people’s confidence, including mine by beating Iowa and South Florida during a five game winning streak. Then they were bombed 54-34 at home by offensively challenged Rutgers. The Irish are 4-0 at home and finally won a road game, taking out winless Washington 33-7. As much as I like McCoy running the football clearly it isn’t enough for Pitt this season. If ND wins this they will be a win over Syracuse (1-6) away from a perfect home season. They have found a way to score 24+ in four straight games. I am seeing a lot of points on both sides and while on one side we have home perfection the Panthers are 3-0 on the road having won them in consecutive games: Pittsburgh 34, Notre Dame 27

Oregon (6-2) @ California (5-2): Four teams have only one loss in Pac-10 play, but the Bears have a lot more to play for because the Ducks have already lost to USC. Cal and Oregon State are the teams who control their own destiny whereas the Trojans and Oregon need help. The Bears are really struggling on offense. Last week’s 41-20 win over UCLA might have seemed like an offensive outpour, but most of the game it was painful watching them trying to move the chains. The Ducks come in having scored 43 touchdowns this season including seven games with 32+ points and four games with 44+ points. Cal has gotten help from their defense and special teams to score 38+ four times. Their defense will be called on to win this one. They have won the past two meetings and controlled the action when Oregon last visited despite facing a backfield of Dennis Dixon and Jonathan Stewart. In what should be a great one I favor Cal who is 4-0 at home to find a way: California 24, Oregon 23

Florida State (6-1) @ Georgia Tech (6-2): Before the Yellow Jackets lost to Virginia last week this was looking like a possible ACC title game preview. It still might be, but only if Georgia Tech wins this one. As one of only three teams in the conference with a single loss in conference play the Seminoles have to be feeling good. A defeat in this game can put them right back into the muck though. I think Florida State has demonstrated an ability to stop the run which of course is Georgia Tech’s whole offense. FSU’s scoring has been solid since an embarrassing 12-3 home loss to Wake Forest. Since then they have put up 39, 41, 26 and 30 in wins. It’s a tossup, but they’ve already won twice on the road and the Yellow Jackets just lost at home: Florida State 20, Georgia Tech 17

Florida (6-1) vs. Georgia (7-1): This one will be held at Jacksonville, Florida and pretty much decide the SEC East. The Bulldogs have done a good job against the run, but the Gators aren’t interested in running right at them. Their offense is based on speed and exploiting mismatches. Other than their inexplicable loss to Mississippi Florida has been solid on defense. It’s maddening to think their season could be ruined by a missed extra point. Both teams just mugged overrated LSU, but what the Gators just did to Kentucky shows how intent they are on making a run. Mix in a little motivation from a certain celebration last year and this is what you get: Florida 31, Georgia 17

Texas (8-0) @ Texas Tech (8-0): I get a little bit tired of voters filling out their ballots on reputation. Oklahoma sits at #4 yet Oklahoma State at #9 has the same record and in my opinion gave Texas a better game on the road than the Sooners did at a neutral site. Then there’s the Red Raiders undefeated yet ranked #6 behind teams who have lost. Their rout of Kansas opened a lot of eyes because it was their first real opponent of the season. They might be peaking whereas I think the Longhorns are running out of gas. Texas has been sprinting for nearly a month now. How much more can they take? Unlike the previous three showdowns this is a true road game. Is that enough to undo them? In two games against the Red Raiders Colt McCoy put up almost identical numbers in 59-43 (home) and 35-31 (road) wins. The average boils down to 21/30 for 262 yards 4 touchdowns and an interception. Harrell’s averages are 39/55 for 473 yards 4 touchdowns and 1 interception. Pretty gaudy numbers, but not enough: Texas 38, Texas Tech 33

Here are the bowl projections as I see them. This is more of a gut instinct than anything else, and I’ll give it another look in a week or two.

BCS CHAMPIONSHIP: USC vs. Florida – Chaos reigns at the end of the season. Everyone knows it so why not predict it? The Big XII is this year’s SEC and ironically the product is an SEC team benefiting. The pollsters and computers already love USC and all the Trojans need to do is finish up five games against the down Pac-10 and hope Oregon State stumbles once. Florida is in an even better spot because while their schedule is more daunting it also provides a huge opportunity including the current top ranked team in the SEC (Alabama, barring something unforeseen) and Florida State. The Big XII has two undefeated teams at #1 and #7 plus Oklahoma at #4 and Oklahoma State at #9 in the BCS rankings. Too many games between them remain for any team to stand out plus an upset or two can be expected.

ORANGE BOWL: North Carolina vs. Louisville – I’m on a bit of a limb with the Tar Heels who have lost to both Virginia schools already. However, both are inconsistent and subject to losses which can open the door. Once in the title game they can deal with anyone from the Atlantic. Speaking of limbs, I can’t even see the tree with the Cardinals on the other side. However, if you can figure out either the ACC or Big East please let me know. Hunter Cantwell seems to be turning into a leader and could have Louisville on a roll. The Orange has the last choice and while I could see Connecticut, West Virginia or Pittsburgh winning to get here as well right now I’ll go with the unexpected.

ROSE BOWL: Penn State vs. Texas Tech – This is another risky prediction, but I don’t buy the Nittany Lions winning out. We never expected West Virginia losing to Pittsburgh last year and I see a shocking loss in their future. Perhaps even at Iowa if Greene carries the Hawkeyes like McCoy did for the Panthers. The Red Raiders will finish 11-1 and in a repeat of last year with Kansas go into the BCS without winning their division but this time will be the next highest ranked team. I’ll be honest it is very difficult projecting how exactly the Big XII finishes including a potential shocker if Missouri upsets the South winner.

FIESTA BOWL: Texas vs. Boise State – The Longhorns are on a serious roll, but showed signs of wear against Oklahoma State. Their offense can overwhelm any defense left on the schedule. However, every team is subject to an off day and they play two road games plus rival Texas A&M. Don’t laugh, rivalry games have produced shockers in the past. It’s unconventional to expect two non-BCS teams to get into the mix, but I believe two could run the table. I’m fairly confident Boise State can get there and it would be appealing to revisit their glorious 2007 victory over Oklahoma by matching them up with another Big XII foe.

SUGAR BOWL: Alabama vs. Utah – Since Florida was snatched up in the title game they take the next best thing. I think the Tide are too overconfident for a win in the SEC title game and will finish 11-1. I’m not convinced anyone wants to touch Ohio State given their performance in the championship games the past two seasons, especially a bowl featuring an SEC team. Instead it’s the highest ranked undefeated team. If the Utes aren’t able to beat TCU and BYU, and I believe it’s very possible they won’t, the Sugar might have to take the Buckeyes. I don’t think they want another WAC team after last year’s Florida rout of Hawaii.