Rose Bowl – Penn State (11-1) vs. USC (11-1) – January 1 Pasadena, California: Neither team really wants to be playing in this game. The Trojans were secretly hoping Oregon State would beat Oregon and propel them into a higher profile meeting with Texas in the Fiesta. The Nittany Lions had their sights set on the BCS title game before a late field goal by Iowa ruined their perfect season. Here they are though and it’s the Rose Bowl in all its glory. Joe Paterno says he will coach three more years, but we never know what might happen in the future. He is a living legend trying to shock the Trojans in their own backyard. Pete Carroll is trying to motivate his players for yet another Big Ten foe when the perception is that even a win doesn’t mean much. The best defense in the nation is left pondering how they let Jacquizz Rodgers slide by them and spoil their shot at the title game. The toughest part of that to swallow is that Oregon State had gone to Penn State just three weeks prior and gotten hammered 45-14. The other common opponent is Ohio State. It’s almost like everyone has forgotten about that game and I actually read an AP article where Oregon State was cited as the only team both had played. USC of course throttled the Buckeyes 35-3, but “Beanie” Wells was sidelined and Terrelle Pryor had yet to come into his own at that point. When the Nittany Lions beat them 13-6 six weeks later the circumstances were quite different.

If the Outback Bowl gets you in the mood for defense earlier in the day get ready for #1 vs. #5 in this one. The Trojans gave up 93 points this season, and 50 of that came in their loss to Oregon State and win over Stanford. Both of those were on the road. At home USC allowed 19 points in six games. You shouldn’t need a calculator to figure out that is just over a field goal on average. Only two teams scored more than 18 points on Penn State. Illinois and Iowa each scored 24. The offense was really the story though with 57 touchdowns and seven games scoring 45+ points. They even had a catchy nickname for it, the Spread HD. The key was protecting the football. Only Florida had fewer interceptions than Penn State’s 4 and the Nittany Lions passed the ball 28.8 times per game. That’s only one pick every 86 passes.

In this game you can bet USC’s defense will pose an even bigger challenge than Ohio State. It took some late heroics for them to bring home that win after trailing 6-3 into the fourth quarter. The Trojans don’t have Beanie Wells, but they have a group of running backs who as a unit are more dangerous. You really never know what to expect from this offense because they are so well rounded. Who will be the star this week? Three rushers had 600 yards, but none cracked 650. At receiver Williams, Turner and Johnson sound pretty ordinary and as a group accumulated a pedestrian 1,822 yards. Not exactly Big XII South receiver numbers, but the trio also had 24 touchdown receptions. Sanchez was the typical distributor and his modest statistics reflect a quarterback who played with a lead pretty much the entire season. If not for one errant pass in Corvallis with the team heading for a comeback I wonder if this isn’t Oklahoma’s opponent in the BCS title game as I predicted before the season. In the end this game is a bore. USC has a better defense and is basically at home. They are not the type of team to overlook the Rose Bowl and go flat. Penn State is a fine football team and would give plenty of teams trouble, but not the Trojans who can match their defensive stops. Against bowl competition USC was 5-1 plus three wins over 5-7 teams. Penn State was 3-1 and helped knock 5-7 Illinois out of the mix. It’s the best pairing of the day, but not the best game: USC 24, Penn State 13

Orange Bowl – Virginia Tech (9-4) vs. Cincinnati (11-2) – January 1 Miami, Florida: I know a lot of people have complained about these two teams being undeserving of a BCS bowl, but the BCS is not designed to get the best 10 teams into their bowls. It is geared towards trying to pair up the two best teams while slotting the rest of the “Big Six” conference champions against the most appealing at-large entrants. Prior to seeing them get beaten down at Hawaii before a miraculous comeback I was fairly high on the Bearcats actually. Their only blemishes were road losses to Oklahoma and Connecticut. Both were blowouts, but given their unsettled quarterback situation all season it is a miracle this team won 11 games. Three players appeared in at least three games and threw 66+ passes. Pike recovered from a broken forearm while Grutza came back from a broken leg. The scoring offense somehow remained very consistent with 24+ points scored in 10 of their 13 games.

On the other side the Hokies are more about defense. Nine of their opponents failed to score more than 17 points, and three of the teams that did beat Virginia Tech. It started with the eye opening upset loss at East Carolina when they were “out Beamer’ed” for lack of a better term. Usually the Hokies are the team coming up with scoring plays on special teams and defense, but a blocked punt turned a lead into a 27-22 loss. In the topsy-turvy ACC they had to survive losing three out of four games, all on the road, before recovering to claim the Coastal division. Next up was a rematch with Boston College and after two losses in the state of Florida the third time was the charm. Their fourth game in the Sunshine State is even more important, and at least they are used to the climate.

Against bowl competition Virginia Tech is 5-4 plus a win over rival Virginia to knock them out of it. Cincinnati is 5-2 and helped keep 5-7 Louisville out. The Big East has generally been considered the weakest of the six AQ conferences this season. The term AQ means “automatic qualifier” for the BCS in case everyone is not up on the latest cool lingo. The ACC was battered early in the season until they spent a weekend beating up on the SEC and wound up with 10 of their 12 teams in bowl games. This game is really about Cincinnati’s passing attack trying to get it done against a stingy Virginia Tech secondary. We know the Bearcats will struggle to run the ball, and I am looking for Victor “Macho” Harris to stand tall with a few big plays in pass defense, possibly even a pick six. The Bearcats have their own hot corner Mike Mickens, but he is hurt and his status is in doubt. I don’t believe Cincinnati will be dominant on offense and while Virginia Tech is clearly no offensive power they will be put in a position to succeed by their defense. This team is sneaky. When you play them you enter believing you can’t lose and exit wondering how you did: Virginia Tech 24, Cincinnati 21

Cotton Bowl – Texas Tech (11-1) vs. Mississippi (8-4) – January 2 Dallas, Texas: The Red Raiders are going to see the other side of the coin in this game. A few years ago they were an up and coming team playing a highly ranked opponent who had just been jilted by the BCS. Cal was left wondering what happened after missing out on the Rose Bowl and lost 45-31. Hopefully Mike Leach will remind his team about this game and redshirt seniors will if he doesn’t because they were on the team in 2004. In this case the focus will be easier because the Cotton Bowl still means something to teams from Texas. If there is any question about the quality of their opponent just tune back to their September 27 upset win at Florida. Houston Nutt came over from Arkansas and coached this team to within a few plays of the SEC title game really. A home loss to Vanderbilt (23-17) was very costly and at Alabama the Rebels were very much in a 24-20 loss. Turn around those two results and it would have been a rematch in the Georgia Dome. Their other loss, 30-28 at Wake Forest, came on a field goal in the waning moments.

It doesn’t take as long to discuss Texas Tech’s losses because they only lost once. It was a big one though. Oklahoma took them apart and in the process might have shaken some of their confidence. The following week the Red Raiders had to survive Baylor 35-28. The Bears finished 2-6 in Big XII play and 4-8 overall. Texas Tech’s schedule is also very much in question. Nevada ended up in a bowl game, somewhat justifying their only non-conference road game. At home they lined up Eastern Washington, SMU and Massachusetts. Why not just schedule a few scrimmages against the local high school all-stars? The win over Texas seemed to prove they belonged in the national elite, but it hard to ignore Nebraska taking them to OT at home and Texas A&M hanging with them for a half. Once the patsies were gone this defense never held an opponent under 20 points. Mississippi closed the season with two shutouts in their final three games and allowed only 20 points the entire month of November.

Texas Tech managed to go 5-1 against bowl competition plus a win over 5-7 Kansas State. Playing in such a strong conference you would expect a higher number of big games, but they didn’t face Missouri. Ole Miss as it turns out opened the season against a bowl team, beating Memphis 41-24. They finished 3-4 against teams who are bowling plus late wins over Arkansas and Auburn who finished 5-7. Behind developing quarterback Jevan Snead this was widely considered one of the strongest teams in the country down the stretch. Thanks in part to top NFL prospect Michael Oher at left tackle Snead was sacked only 13 times. Graham Harrell can relate. He was taken out 11 times. The other factor here is the Heisman snub. Harrell and his top receiver Michael Crabtree were left out in the cold in favor of two other Big XII quarterbacks and defending winner Tim Tebow of Florida. It was one of those situations where if he was in another conference, like say the Pac-10, I believe he is at the ceremony. He had his third season in a row with over 4,500 yards passing and 38 touchdowns. His average over that span was 394.9 yards passing per game with 127 touchdowns against 32 interceptions in 38 games. He threw the ball 1,898 times and was intercepted only 1.7% of the time which is amazing. I know it is supposed to be only based on one season, but the body of work can’t be ignored. Crabtree was actually down this season as defenses started to key on him. His 1,962 yards receiving and 22 touchdowns as a freshman might have earned the award under different circumstances. Like if he was a senior on an undefeated team. This year he had only 93 receptions for 1,135 yards and 18 touchdowns including the dramatic game winner against Texas.

Obviously I think this game is very intriguing. Texas Tech’s offensive line can be very dominant, but 6 of the aforementioned 11 sacks came in the final two games. Here comes Jeria Perry up the middle and Greg Hardy on the outside to test them again. Ole Miss is more of a balanced attack on offense and very capable of slowing this game down. It’s a guessing game until the teams hit the field. At least Texas Tech has a measure of peace knowing their head coach for now is staying put. Adding a little extra flare this will be the final game played at the Cotton Bowl. After seven decades the game will move to Arlington next season at the new Dallas Cowboys stadium. I think the Red Raiders use that as motivation and in many ways have a lot to play for: Texas Tech 34, Mississippi 24

Liberty Bowl – East Carolina (9-4) vs. Kentucky (6-6) – January 2 Memphis, Tennessee: Thanks to the big advertising dollars we get a triple header in the SEC on the second day of the year. The venue favors the Wildcats in a game I’m not sure many people will be watching. The Pirates opened the season big knocking off eventual ACC champion Virginia Tech and Big East contender West Virginia. The pressure of carrying a national ranking was too much and their 3-0 start became 3-3 in a hurry. In the soft Conference USA even a 21-3 loss at Southern Miss didn’t keep them from the conference title game where they upended high powered Tulsa 27-24. They actually finished 4-3 against teams in the postseason and kept 5-7 UTEP from eligibility with a 53-21 win in the regular season finale. The Wildcats were a woeful 0-5 against bowl competition although four of the losses were by 7 points or less and they did beat three 5-7 teams to help keep them home for the holidays.

Defense is the foundation for both teams. Early on it became obvious when the Pirates stifled Pat White’s Mountaineers and the Wildcats allowed a total of 22 points in their first four games. If you don’t like defense make plans for the middle of your day. Kentucky’s leading rusher had 341 yards and leading receiver had 264 yards. The stats were slightly better for East Carolina, but the weaker conference more than accounts for the difference. The Wildcats are going to be without starting quarterback Randall Cobb. His replacement Hartline needs to be wary of throwing any killer interceptions. This has the makings of a very even game. When another top Conference USA team, Tulsa, played at Arkansas they lost 30-23. I do wonder if Kentucky’s offense can do what Tulsa’s did not in the CUSA title game though. I am seeing a brawl really. The SEC is more talented and deep. When these games get into the fourth quarter it makes a big difference so I look for a slight upset here: Kentucky 20, East Carolina 17

Sugar Bowl – Utah (12-0) vs. Alabama (12-1) – January 2 New Orleans, Louisiana: I have doubted the Crimson Tide all season and unfortunately this game will probably not change my mind. I would love to see this team against a USC or Ohio State. Once again the SEC plays “host” to a BCS buster ill prepared for their style of football. I like the Utes and I am always looking for a great underdog story, but I can’t see it here. This team escaped defeat five times this season. Three of those were against quality opponents. The other two were on the road against teams who did not finish well. Michigan’s “Big House” might have been a tough opener, but the Wolverines finished 3-9 and nearly came back to beat the Utes. New Mexico was 4-8 and nearly caught this team looking ahead in a 13-10 defeat. Their biggest road win to date is 30-23 at Air Force. I would say this is a tougher draw than that one by a country mile. This team deserves a BCS bid for going 5-0 against bowl teams plus a win over 5-7 UNLV to help knock them out. However, let’s be realistic about this. Do they really have the athletes on offense to keep up with Alabama?

The Tide bounced back from a 7-6 season in 2007 by infusing a ton of freshman talent and capitalizing on a down SEC. Their opening 34-10 win over Clemson was supposed to be huge. Turns out it was only a decent win over an eventual 7-5 team. They finished 5-1 against teams who are in the postseason plus three routs of Arkansas, Tennessee and Auburn to help keep them ineligible at 5-7. Most impressively their defense dominates. It even took Florida into the fourth quarter before they opened up on them in the SEC title game. I still contend if that game is outdoors in the elements the Tide might be playing Oklahoma for all the BCS marbles, but that’s another story. Speaking of which this will be Alabama’s third dome game this season, yet another advantage for a team that does not need any.

On offense the Tide are fairly simple. Their line is fantastic. Glen Coffee runs the ball and Julio Jones catches it when needed. John Parker Wilson protects it. Utah can stay in this game if they continue to play solid defense. Their season high in points allowed was 28 in their comeback win over Oregon State. Prior to the 48-24 season ending rout of BYU they had given up just 57 points in their previous five games. Nine teams failed to score more than 14 on Alabama this season and Utah will be hard pressed to join Georgia, Mississippi, LSU and Florida as teams who did. They are stout against the run and just as nasty defending the pass. On the plus side at least Utah’s offense will be coordinated by someone who knows what he is doing. Andy Ludwig is heading for Kansas State after this game. His best weapon might be his kicker Louie Sakoda who also punts. If he can design enough plays to get him into range and put points on the board Utah might avoid an onslaught. I doubt it. I look for the physically more powerful Tide to overwhelm them: Alabama 31, Utah 10

International Bowl – Connecticut (7-5) vs. Buffalo (8-5) – January 3 Toronto, Canada: This is kind of a fun game and certainly has some storylines to it. First the Bulls make a short trip past Lake Ontario and over the border. Their fans only need to drive about 100 miles. The last trip to a bowl game never happened because officials from the Tangerine Bowl refused to allow integrated games. In other words they didn’t want Buffalo’s two black players to participate. This not only did not sit well with the rest of the team, they simply refused to play. As it turns out fifty years later the team will not be playing in their first bowl game. Obviously emotion is on their side. The team went a dismal 3-20 from 2005-2006, but has turned things around under Turner Gill who just received an extension to remain with the team. It was all made possible when the Bulls shook off a 24-21 home loss to then 3-8 Kent State and shocked the MAC world (I couldn’t resist) by upsetting previously undefeated Ball State 42-24 in the championship game. It was an improbable win fueled by two long fumble return touchdowns and truth be told they were not the better team, but somehow they did it.

Connecticut is similarly a bit of an underdog. They finished a solid 9-4 last year without much fanfare, and opened up 5-0 this season. Then the calendar turned to October and as the competition stiffened they fell apart. Only a stunning 40-16 win over eventual Big East champion Cincinnati and rout of cellar dwelling Syracuse kept them from possibly being shut out of a bowl. They were torched by North Carolina, West Virginia and Pittsburgh by an average of 36-12 during their late season swoon. The Huskies finished just 1-5 against bowl competition although they did help keep Virginia and Louisville home as both finished 5-7. Similarly Buffalo went 1-4 against teams in the postseason plus contributing to Temple (5-7) Bowling Green (6-6) and Akron (5-7) not qualifying. They are a great story, but let’s talk a little bit about Donald Brown. He has decided to stay at Connecticut after leading the FBS in rushing with 1,822 yards. Only two teams held him under 100 yards and not by much (82, 96). I don’t know how Buffalo comes close to stopping them. They have fan support and emotion on their side, but it only carries them so far. The Huskies can shut down their offense and run right at them with Brown for an easy win: Connecticut 27, Buffalo 17

Fiesta Bowl – Texas (11-1) vs. Ohio State (10-2) – January 5 Glendale, Arizona: Just like their rival Texas Tech in the Cotton Bowl now the Longhorns will get a sense of what Cal dealt with after losing out on the Rose Bowl. Texas players feel jilted and they should. It must have been tough watching two teams they had beaten, Oklahoma and Missouri, meet for the Big XII title. Those were the rules though, and the correct decision was made given the guidelines which are certain to be modified. Now the question is whether or not they can focus in on the opponent in front of them instead of worrying about what might have been. The Buckeyes know all about that. They played for the past two BCS titles and came up well short. This season their hopes for another chance were dashed early with a loss at USC. To their credit Ohio State scheduled an elite opponent just like they had when hooking up with the Longhorns for two memorable tilts. The road team won both of those games and this will be the rubber match of sorts.

I believe Ohio State enters this game with a huge chip on their shoulders. The SEC teams were too much for them obviously, but this is a different team. Texas does not possess the strong, stifling defense. During their four game “gauntlet” the Longhorns allowed 35, 31, 24 and 39 points. This time the Buckeyes will be the team looking to clamp down. Only three teams have topped 17 points against them, but in reality I only count USC. Illinois scored a meaningless touchdown in the final minutes when down 30-13 and Minnesota put up scores against the backups to make a 34-6 game 34-21. This unit is good and it starts with linebacker James Laurinaitis and cornerback Malcolm Jenkins. Both guys returned to college even with first round NFL grades if they had exited early. The hope was a national title, but now it is more about big game pride. They have lost a series of big games in a row and desperately want to end their college careers with a win.

On the other side Colt McCoy leads a deadly offensive attack. If they have a weakness it is the lack of an impact rusher. McCoy led the team with 576 yards rushing. No other player cracked 400. Ohio State can turn their attention to blitzes hoping to disrupt his rhythm and big hits over the middle by their strong linebackers. Jenkins won’t be able to take away the passing game entirely because Jordan Shipley and Quan Cosby form a solid duo. One of them is going to get open on most plays if there is no pressure on McCoy. I can definitely see the Buckeyes turning in a stellar defensive effort in this game relatively speaking. Ohio State’s offense is a ton of running from Chris Wells and the occasional big play turned in either passing or scrambling from true freshman quarterback Terrelle Pryor. I am not often impressed by hyped players, but he has turned in some spectacular plays. His biggest problem is defensive end Brian Orakpo. I would not want to be in a steel cage match with that guy. However, while Pryor’s receivers Brian Hartline and Brian Robiskie have only 898 yards receiving between them both are capable of making plays down the field in key spots.

For the season Texas went 6-1 against bowl competition plus three wins over teams who finished at 5-7. Nine of their wins came by 24+ points. Ohio State was 5-2 and helped knock Illinois out. Eight of their wins came by 12+ points. I am seeing a game with title fight atmosphere. Don’t tell these teams this is not the national title. They are mad for different reasons and it will show. Eventually the Texas offense will get into gear, but Ohio State is going to make some plays and stay in this game for the duration: Texas 27, Ohio State 20

GMAC Bowl – Tulsa (10-3) vs. Ball State (12-1) – January 6 Mobile, Alabama: On Halloween these teams were both 8-0 and fighting to bust into the BCS. Neither made it obviously. For the Golden Hurricane the end came in dramatic fashion at Arkansas when they failed to score in the fourth quarter for the first time all season in a 30-23 setback. Two weeks later Houston treated their defense like it wasn’t there in a 70-30 rout and two weeks after that their failure was complete when East Carolina beat them in the Conference USA title game. The Cardinals stayed perfect until their title game only to get stunned by Buffalo 42-24 in a bizarre turnover riddled effort. Honestly I believe the team lost a measure of confidence when it was widely reported they did not want to play “at” Boise State in the Humanitarian Bowl when bowl bids were still up in the air. It was their opportunity to pump their chest and accept a challenge, but instead they backed down. In the MAC title game I could see in their eyes the confidence was lost.

The question I have is which Tulsa offense will be showing up? They scored a crazy 81 touchdowns this season including nine games with 45+ points. However, throwing out their 56-7 drubbing of Tulane the offense averaged a very ordinary 28.8 points in their final four games. Ball State can score a bit too with 58 touchdowns and 31+ points in eleven games. The exceptions were both 24. Against bowl competition the Cardinals were 4-1 with the only win outside the MAC coming over Navy (35-23). The Golden Hurricane went just 1-3. The one victory was a 63-28 thumping of Rice that eventually broke a tie for the Conference USA West division title. I have to question a team with such little success in their biggest games.

Nate Davis is a good quarterback and has to shake off his disastrous MAC title game for Ball State to compete in this game. He has running back MiQuale Lewis to lean on and help control the clock. David Johnson can relate to a turnover filled title game. He threw 5 interceptions. Then there is the matter of last year when Tulsa routed MAC entrant Bowling Green 63-7 in this very bowl game. The familiarity and confidence will be high for them. However, I believe Ball State can keep them off the field for long stretches and grind out this win. Davis is more likely to rebound than Johnson because the offense isn’t as reliant on him. I also don’t think it will be as high scoring as most expect: Ball State 38, Tulsa 34

BCS National Championship – Oklahoma (13-0) vs. Florida (12-1) – January 8 Miami, FL: Be careful what you wish for. Everyone seemed determined to put the winner of the Big XII against the winner of the SEC to the point where teams like USC and Penn State were not even involved in the conversation despite going 11-1. They say not having a conference title game helps the Pac-10 and Big Ten. In this case I’m not so sure. It’s tough to project how things would have come out because there are currently no divisions, but what if USC routs Oregon State in a rematch to avenge their only loss? Or Penn State does the same? Again, we have no idea how these conferences might realign to even make this games possible, but I believe more thought might have been put into which teams played for the title. Instead we are left with the most productive offense possibly in college football history against one of the best college football players to walk the planet if you believe the hype. I’m okay with that unless USC wins the Rose Bowl by four touchdowns and Ohio State wins the Fiesta. Then I will be disappointed again at the lack of a playoff or “plus one” system.

Two Heisman trophy winning quarterbacks square off, but the most attention is being paid to a player who will not participate. Oklahoma is without running back DeMarco Murray who was injured in the Big XII title game. That’s a loss of 1,397 yards of total offense and 18 touchdowns not to mention his team leading 28 kickoff returns. His exit was not felt during the rout of Missouri, but while they still have Mossis Madu to team up with Chris Brown in the backfield he will be missed. Just ask Florida who had Percy Harvin out of action in the SEC title game. He will be back in action and another off the field win is newly hired Mississippi coach Dan Mullen staying on to call plays as offensive coordinator. Breaking continuity for such a crucial game would have made a negative impact even with God, I mean Tim Tebow playing quarterback. Tebow threw only two interceptions all season. The speed of his playmakers is underlined by true freshman Jeffery Demps who ran a high school record 10.01 in the 100 meters during the U.S. Olympic Trials. When guys say someone is “track fast” often times they are full of it. In this case they are right.

Florida destroyed a down SEC this season. In all they finished 9-1 against bowl competition plus two wins that helped keep 5-7 Tennessee and Arkansas out of it. The only real dog on their schedule was The Citadel, a puzzling game scheduled on November 22. Even with more dogs on their slate I still favor what Oklahoma did in going 7-1 against teams in the postseason plus a win over 5-7 Kansas State. When you can score 58+ points for the final half of the season and the worst team in that bunch is 4-8 with an average record of 7.7-3.5 when throwing out the losses to the Sooners it is pretty impressive. I know the defense has been dogged, but when your offense scores 94 touchdowns it can be tough to stay focused. It is a lack of urgency. When you are out shopping in the mall wandering around you don’t walk as fast as you might with a homicidal maniac chasing you in the dark. I guess in this case the Gators are that maniac.

We are going to be entertained in this game any way you slice it. If Florida comes out strong and builds a lead there is very little chance Oklahoma simply folds up their tent and gets hammered similar to their 55-19 showing the last time they played for all the marbles against USC. Similarly even if the Sooners get the jump don’t count on Tebow quitting. This is going to be a 60 minute game with no early Gatorade showers. Florida gets the home field, but off the artificial turf their speed will not be as deadly. Oklahoma has the weight of playing small in big games. If their offensive line is unable to hold off the Gator defense Bradford will face real pressure for the first time this season. Their line is so strong on the left side that I’m not sure Florida can really do it. I need to see something to believe it and in their biggest game of the season Oklahoma lost on a neutral field to Texas. The Gators have already won two big ones on a neutral field. In the most unpredictable of all the bowl games I have to buck my season trend and play it safe: Florida 40, Oklahoma 34