Motor City Bowl – Central Michigan (8-4) vs. Florida Atlantic (6-6) – December 26 Detroit, Michigan: The Chippewas probably deserved a better opponent than this, but are culpable as part of a puzzling late season turnabout in the MAC. Their 56-52 loss at Eastern Michigan coupled with Kent State, then 3-8, beating Buffalo who proceeded to win the conference by taking out Ball State left everyone scratching their heads. Instead of having a few teams from the MAC West perceived as pretty good in a bad conference now it’s the same old MAC. No one believes the Sun Belt is any good. In fact it is a miracle the Owls made it as a second bowl team from the conference. Then even beat out Louisiana-Lafayette, also 6-6, despite finishing tied for third behind them in the Sun Belt standings. It was deserved though because while digging out of a 1-5 hole to start the season they beat the Ragin’ Cajuns 40-29. A big reason for the struggle was going 0-4 against bowl teams. Three of those were on the road at Texas, Michigan State and Minnesota before a home loss to Troy, but all were by 13+ points. Once the good teams went away they started winning.

Central Michigan was blasted early at Georgia, but because their conference sent five teams to bowl games managed a 3-2 overall record against bowl competition. All of those games against MAC teams were close with wins by 2, 10 and 3 (overtime) and a loss by 7 to then undefeated Ball State. Their offense has been good with 45 touchdowns and 427.1 yards per game. Their defense has been almost identically bad allowing 46 touchdowns and 424.3 yards per game. Florida Atlantic gives up rushing yardage in big chunks. Quarterback Dan LeFevour had by his standards a down season after passing for 3,652 yards and rushing for 1,122 yards last season as a bit of a non-BCS Tebow with 46 total touchdowns in 2007. On the plus side he threw just 5 interceptions and in late season games against Northern Illinois and Ball State showed flashes of the player he can be when he is on. By himself he is too much for the Owls. I know sometimes a team that does not belong can sometimes step up, but in basically a home game for the Chips I don’t see it happening here. FAU’s defense will have no answer for him: Central Michigan 42, Florida Atlantic 28

Meineke Car Care Bowl – North Carolina (8-4) vs. West Virginia (8-4) – December 27 Charlotte, North Carolina: I really believe this can be one of the better bowl games because neither team really met their potential during the season. Obviously expectations were high for the “visiting” Mountaineers. They seemed to be past losing head coach Rich Rodriguez by thumping Oklahoma in the Fiesta Bowl. The win proved costly in the eyes of some because it led to Bill Stewart being handed the head coaching position full time. Unfortunately the team’s offense sputtered this season with the departure of receiver Darius Reynaud who in 2007 had double the receiving yards of any other player with 733 and 12 of the team’s 16 touchdown receptions. Mix in the loss of current NFL rookie star Steve Slaton (1,051 yards and 17 touchdowns rushing) and the Pat White/Noel Devine backfield fooled less teams. When there are only two players to account for on the field even if they are great it is not difficult to defend. No one on the team had even 400 yards receiving. The good news is the rushing of Devine (1,228 yards) and the mobile quarterback White (919 yards) but the duo had only 11 touchdowns with their legs. Is it any wonder then why this team went just 2-3 in games decided by no more than a touchdown?

The flip side is just that for the Tar Heels. They came in with no expectations and for a time took the unpredictable ACC by the throat knocking eventual Atlantic division champion Boston College (45-24) and currently highest ranked Georgia Tech (28-7) around in consecutive games. They bread to that sandwich was three losses to mediocre Virginia, Maryland and N.C. State though. The end of that was the most puzzling when the hated Wolfpack destroyed them 41-10 in their stadium. Have they shaken off a late season swoon? UNC earlier punished Rutgers (44-12) and Connecticut (38-12) – both bowl bound in the Big East. In all they finished an impressive 6-3 against teams going to a bowl game. West Virginia was just 3-3 although they did also beat the Scarlet Knights and Huskies. Even playing at home I don’t like how North Carolina finished the season. Hakeem Nicks is the big draw for their offense with 1,005 yards receiving, but the Mountaineer defense is tough and UNC has not gotten consistent quarterback play. Pat White will not go quietly into the night in his final bowl game. The defense will set him up and he will knock the Heels down: West Virginia 26, North Carolina 17

Champs Sports Bowl – Florida State (8-4) vs. Wisconsin (7-5) – December 27 Orlando, Florida: If you need the make an argument that there are too many bowl games this season just bring up the Badgers. Any team that needs three missed extra points to beat a team from the FCS (Cal Poly) 36-35 in extra time should be automatically disqualified from consideration. It was their home finale no less. Wisconsin finished 2-4 against teams heading to a bowl game with an early 13-10 win at Fresno State and 35-32 victory over by then free falling Minnesota late. The Seminoles were ridiculed for opening against two FCS teams, and bad ones at that, but at least they blasted them a combined 115-7. They also finished 5-3 versus bowl competition plus a 39-21 win over Colorado who if not for that setback might have gone somewhere. Included in that was a 30-20 win over ACC champion Virginia Tech, but their season was blown when seemingly all of their wide receivers were suspended for a 27-17 loss to Boston College late in the year.

Fans of Wisconsin are used to heading to Florida for bowl games, this is their fifth straight, but FSU will still have a distinct home field advantage in this game. Their defense will swarm an offense heavily dependent on the running of P.J. Hill and John Clay who combined for an impressive 1,866 yards rushing and 22 touchdowns behind an experienced line. The running game will produce some yards and turn this into a game with limited possessions. I like the ‘Noles to do their share of running as well. If a team is going to take this game over it will be FSU for obvious reasons playing in front of their fans. I am looking for a dreary game that will be watched on television only because there is on alternative at the time. Lots of running and defense should be the order of the evening. I like how Florida State has grown this season while Wisconsin really faded which is sort of how this game will go: Florida State 29, Wisconsin 19

Emerald Bowl – California (8-4) vs. Miami, FL (7-5) – December 27 San Francisco, CA: The economy is in such a funk that many bowl games were forced to adjust their schedules in order to accommodate having at least one “home” team. All fans of the Bears will need to do here is drive across a bridge. The downside is that instead of playing ranked BYU with a chance to prove something California draws the once proud, now flagging a bit Hurricanes. If this can really be considered a home game then forget it. Cal was 7-0 in Berkeley this season including wins over currently ranked Michigan State and Oregon. They also throttled bowl bound Colorado State 42-7 while preventing Arizona State and Stanford, both 5-7 from gaining eligibility. The road was their problem with a 1-4 record. All of those losses were against teams heading to a bowl starting with the nightmare at Maryland, then horrific third quarter at Arizona, snoozer at USC and finally a return fueled disaster at Oregon State.

Miami fared a little worse against bowl competition at 2-5 plus a 24-17 overtime win over Virginia which kept them from eligibility. Their confidence peaked for a brief return to the rankings prior to getting run over by Georgia Tech. There is no common opponent because Maryland, from the Atlantic division, was off their schedule this season. This is really a battle of defense. Both teams allow 315 total yards per game. Digging deeper though the issue is run defense because Miami struggled in that department late, notably letting the Yellow Jackets run for nearly four bills through three quarters. They will be introduced to Jahvid Best early and often. Best was robbed of a spot on the all-conference team because the voting took place before he ran for 311 yards against Washington despite being pulled five minutes into the second half. Never mind that his backup Shane Vereen had 679 yards, or just shy of Miami’s leading rusher Graig Cooper (778).

If the Hurricanes want to win this game it has to be through the air, but their quarterbacks have 19 interceptions. Cal is third in the FBS with 23 interceptions. Against the run their linebackers are athletic and ready to improve their NFL draft stock with a dominant performance. It starts with Zack Follett and Worrell Williams, brother to D.J. of the Denver Broncos, who are both departing seniors. Miami does not have a player with more than 321 yards receiving, but their most dangerous player will be shadowed by Syd’Quan Thompson. I see this game as a total mismatch. Cal has struggled at the quarterback position and with injuries to the offensive line that has been glued together by Draddy winner Alex Mack at center. However, it is a huge advantage given both of those factors to be playing in a friendly environment. They will turn in a trick play or two, play better special teams and dominate this game: California 31, Miami, FL 13

Independence Bowl – Louisiana Tech (7-5) vs. Northern Illinois (6-6) – December 28 Shreveport, Louisiana: It’s the MAC “at” the WAC in this one. Both teams are happy to be here filling spots from what could have been another considerably less hyped Big XII vs. SEC game. The Bulldogs were 8-17 the past two seasons and making their fourth appearance in the Independence, second only to Mississippi’s five. The Huskies face a bit of a backlash from local fans disappointed nearby Louisiana-Lafayette or even Arkansas State were not invited. Now instead of a balanced stadium of fans the support shifts heavily the Louisiana Tech. NIU’s season started strong at 5-3, but faded with three losses in the final month. The trouble is not hard to trace. They struggle against good teams having gone 0-5 against bowl competition. They were punished 45-14 at Ball State and shut out 16-0 against Navy, but the other three losses were by a total of 10 points in their defense. The Huskies did keep Bowling Green (6-6) out of a bowl game by beating them 16-13 and lost a tough 13-9 decision at Tennessee who despite their struggles still plays in the SEC.

For Louisiana Tech the season started with a big 22-14 win over Mississippi State. The other Bulldogs also struggled, but again to beat a team from the SEC is huge for a WAC member. Road blowouts at Kansas and Boise State by a combined 67-3 put them in the place leading to a 3-4 start. Then came a key 38-35 win over Fresno State and 21-0 shutout of San Jose State who finished 6-6 as part of a four game winning streak. It ended against Nevada to close the season, but overall to be 1-3 plus a win over the otherwise eligible Spartans and of course Mississippi State is not bad. They really struggle on defense though. I don’t know what got into them with that shutout, but in four of their final five games they allowed 31+ points and for the season half of their opponents scored at least 29. Northern Illinois turned in some good defensive performances holding eight of their twelve opponents to no more than 16. Their offensive strength, rushing the ball, takes on Louisiana Tech’s defense strength. The Bulldogs give up almost 280 yards per game through the air, but NIU does not throw the ball. The Huskies do defend the pass well and their defensive line is anchored by end Larry English. In games like this you look for that one player who can take over and he is the guy to tilt this one: Northern Illinois 27, Louisiana Tech 19

Papajohns Bowl – Rutgers (7-5) vs. N.C. State (6-6) – December 29 Birmingham, Alabama: In mid-October I would have checked my temperature for saying this, but this is a great pairing of two of the hottest teams in football. If we ever did get a basketball-style 64 team tournament I can promise you no highly ranked team would want any part of these teams in an early round game. The Wolfpack started the season 2-6 and Rutgers began 1-5. They have since run off four and six wins in a row respectively. The Scarlet Knights turned on the defense. Six of their final seven opponents scored no more than 17 points. Entering conference play they were 1-3 having beaten only FCS lightweight Morgan State, but close road losses to West Virginia (24-17) and Cincinnati (13-10) foretold of their run. They never lost again and right now probably would like another crack at the Mountaineers and Bearcats. About that 0-3 start, it came at the hands of Fresno State, North Carolina and Navy who are all going bowling which leaves them 3-5 against teams in the postseason.

The Wolfpack can also blame strong competition for their poor start. They were blown away on the road by South Carolina and Clemson while South Florida crushed them on their field. The average score in those games was 34-6 and only upsetting East Carolina 30-24 in the midst of that kept up their spirits. The team went 0-3 in October against all bowl bound teams, but made it close losing by 7, 9 and 3. Their momentum was growing and after a breakthrough win at Duke they closed the year beating three bowl teams in a row. This team is only in a bowl game because they beat the clearly worst ACC team, the Blue Devils were 1-7 in conference play, and William & Mary of the FCS. However, it is hard to ignore their 4-6 record against bowl competition. This team has had to face a good team almost every week.

Now the task for N.C. State is to prove their late season surge was no fluke. It is going to be tough. Rutgers was an offensive machine starting with their 54-34 dismantling of Pittsburgh and ending with their 63-14 thumping of Louisville. Over their final five games this offense posted an average of 46 points. N.C. State does not have a shutdown defense and is not particularly strong against either the run or the pass. Mike Teel shook off a horrible first half of the season in which he failed to pass for 200 yards in five consecutive weeks by passing for 276+ in his final five with a gaudy 20 touchdown passes. Yes, 13 of those came in the two routs over the Panthers and Cardinals, but he was tremendous. Kenny Britt was a big part of that success and over a five game stretch had a ridiculous 727 yards receiving capped off with 10 catches for 197 yards against Army. On the other side Russell Wilson has only one interception all season, way back on September 13, and has thrown for 2 touchdowns in each of the team’s past six games. He will be forced to do too much trying to keep up with Teel in this one: Rutgers 33, N.C. State 17

Alamo Bowl – Northwestern (9-3) vs. Missouri (9-4) – December 29 San Antonio, Texas: There is not technically a home field advantage for either team in this game, but a few factors help the Tigers. First it is Big XII country obviously and quarterback Chase Daniel is from Texas. He fell flat in his last big game here when the Longhorns dusted his Tigers 56-31. Finally, this is their fourth game of the season on a neutral field including the past two played at Arrowhead Stadium, losses to Kansas in messy weather and of course Oklahoma in the Big XII title game. They opened the season beating Illinois in St. Louis. At the time it was considered a big win with Missouri coming off a 12-2 season and the Illini fresh off a Rose Bowl, but it didn’t turn out that way when Illinois finished 5-7. This team’s struggles really started by looking past Oklahoma and getting stung on their home field. Prior to that they had destroyed bowl bound Nevada, Buffalo and Nebraska by an average of 54-18, but those would be their only wins over bowl teams all season. They lost their next four against teams heading to the postseason to finish 3-4 although in fairness they did beat three teams who finished 5-7 and none of those games were close.

The Wildcats had a drastically different season. Certainly no one picked them to compete for a national title and finishing fourth in the Big Ten was a huge accomplishment. However, their 6-1 start featured only one win over a bowl team. In their biggest tests against Michigan State and Ohio State they were blown off the field, and because the Big Ten schedule rotates did not have to face Penn State. They were a mere 2-2 against bowl teams this season because Wisconsin was also off the schedule, and got stung 21-19 by Indiana who failed to beat any other Big Ten opponents. Illinois faced both teams with Missouri beating the Illini 52-42 to open the season and Northwestern closing their campaign with a 27-10 drubbing. Perhaps that is the only bit of evidence this game will be close. I feel like Missouri is steaming from getting routed by Texas and Oklahoma. Both times they seemed to lose focus by losing the previous game as well. It would help Northwestern if star running back Tyrell Sutton returns in what promises to be a high scoring game, but it will be impossible for them to match scores with Daniel, Maclin, Coffman and Washington. The star power is tough to ignore. All they really need to do is force two punts and this is their game to lose. Playing with the lead I expect them to turn it into a rout which is unfortunate considering this will be the only bowl game of the evening. Northwestern has scored over 27 points just three times this season and once since September 13. Mizzou has 31+ in eleven of their thirteen games: Missouri 45, Northwestern 27

Humanitarian Bowl – Maryland (7-5) vs. Nevada (7-5) – December 30 Boise, Idaho: The Terrapins certainly had their chances to get a better bowl draw. Instead they will play on the blue turf against a WAC opponent familiar with the surroundings if not totally supported by fans that would have preferred seeing their beloved Broncos stay home for this one. Maryland was in position to capture the ACC Atlantic division with two games remaining, but was blown out by Florida State 37-3 and eliminated from the race. They were known for playing up, or down, to their competition all season. The Terps began 4-0 against teams who made the postseason, but finished 5-3. They also lost at Sun Belt lightweight Middle Tennessee and were shut out 31-0 at Virginia along the way. Anyone who says they can predict how this team will play is lying. We are all just giving our best guess. Nevada started the season with two losses against Big XII heavyweights Texas Tech and Missouri, but digging deeper they held the Red Raiders in check during that 35-19 setback. Other than Oklahoma no team held them below that point total all season. They split four WAC games against teams heading to a bowl and finished 2-4 plus a win over one of the teams left standing – 6-6 San Jose State.

Clearly the competition was heavy in the ACC although Maryland avoided the best team (Georgia Tech) and went 0-3 against the top teams from the conference. In retrospect their season was saved on close wins starting with the season opening 14-7 win over FCS cupcake Delaware. The Terps were 4-4 in ACC play, but three of those were by a combined 8 points. This could easily have been a team sitting home at 4-8 or even worse. On the other side Nevada was just 1-3 in games decided by a touchdown or less. They suffered their own embarrassing setback to New Mexico State who failed to beat any other WAC opponents.

It is really a battle of Nevada’s offense being able to thrive against a major conference defense. The Wolf Pack piled up 56 touchdowns and averaged 510.6 total yards with 291.4 coming on the ground. They are led by WAC offensive player of the year Colin Kaepernick who passed for 2,479 yards and ran for 1,115 yards with 34 total touchdowns. I don’t expect them to move the ball up and down the field, but they will score some points. On the other side I have to wonder what will be going through Heyward-Bey’s mind in likely his final collegiate game. Many times a player will disappear in his situation playing a minor bowl game against a lesser team for fear of injury. If not he can be the difference maker to lead a high scoring win. At times quarterback Chris Turner has excelled including games with 321 and 360 yards passing, but he needs his #1 target here because the running game is much less likely to succeed against Nevada. In the end flip a coin really. Maryland has more talent and should win. Nevada probably has the fan support and ability to turn in one of those eye opening bowl results. For some reason I think the big boys show up against a team they have never met: Maryland 30, Nevada 27

Texas Bowl – Rice (9-3) vs. Western Michigan (9-3) – December 30 Houston, Texas: Both teams have good records, but for some reason I’m not very excited about this one. The Owls quietly knocked down most of the teams they were expected to and finished 3-3 against bowl competition. Their losses were all on the road in the span of four games against bowl bound Vanderbilt, Texas and Tulsa by an average of 51-20. It was the 63-28 loss to the Golden Hurricane that hurt because it cost them a shot to play for the Conference USA title against East Carolina. They would have entered the game on a serious roll having won six in a row while scoring 35+ in all of them. Momentum is not really with the Broncos on the other side. They closed the season getting handled 45-22 at Ball State who granted was undefeated at the time. Their season was highlighted by a win over Illinois from their “big brother” conference the Big Ten and a road win over eventual MAC champion Buffalo. In all they were 2-3 against bowl teams plus a pair of wins over teams who finished 5-7.

The venue favors Rice in their quest to win 10 games for the first time since before most of the people reading this were born. They were 3-9 last year. This game is all about the quarterbacks. Rice has Chase Clement and WMU has Tim Hiller. Both finished in the top 10 for passing yards in the company of better known Big XII passers named Harrell, Bradford, Daniel and Reesing. On a side note Western Michigan is to be commended by accepting this bid instead of a more favorable pairing with Louisiana Tech in the Independence Bowl and therefore helping another MAC team (Northern Illinois) into the mix. It came at the expense of a better payout although that will be adjusted. They will find the Texas crowd raucous I am sure, but Hiller is taking on a weaker pass defense. Clement though should be fueled by the atmosphere. Neither guy has thrown many interceptions. Of the 23 sacks suffered by Clement 6 of them came against Texas while 4 of Hiller’s 14 came in the season opener at Nebraska. It’s a dead heat really. While I want to pick the guy playing in his home state I can’t ignore Rice allowing 32 touchdown passes, fourth most in the FBS so Hiller spoils it for the home fans in dramatic fashion. This game will only be available on the NFL Network and most fans probably don’t care considering the Holiday Bowl is available in the same time slot, but they’ll miss a good one that could go either way: Western Michigan 41, Rice 38

Holiday Bowl – Oregon (9-3) vs. Oklahoma State (9-3) – December 30 San Diego, California: This is one of the most intriguing bowl games on tap. Both teams are in the top 15 with vastly different perceptions nationally. The Cowboys finished fourth in the hotly contested Big XII South and could have prevented the biggest BCS controversy in history had they been able to upset Texas, Texas Tech or Oklahoma but only came close against the Longhorns. The Ducks were second in the Pac-10, but the conference has been ripped as mediocre leading to champion USC being totally shut out of the discussion for a shot at the national title game. There is actually a common opponent in this meeting and it is very interesting. Both teams went to Washington State, a team ridiculed as one of the worst in the FBS. Oklahoma was there for an early opener in August and won 39-13. However, their lead was just 25-13 with ten minutes to play in the game. Oregon won 63-14 and led 56-7 heading into the final quarter. It was very interesting to me that while the top seven Pac-10 teams beat Washington State by an average of 59-8 including three shutouts and six teams scoring 58+ the Cowboys seemed to have quite a bit more trouble with them. Maybe I’m the only one who noticed.

Offense is certainly going to the story of this game as is often the case for the Holiday Bowl historically. This decade there have been eight games and five of them produced 61+ points with the losing team contributing 27+. Oklahoma State is making their first appearance since 1988 when they turned in a 62-14 thrashing of Wyoming behind the running of Barry Sanders, one of the NFL’s greatest running backs even if he did call it a career too soon. Oregon is making their third appearance in nine years having beat Texas and lost to Oklahoma previously. On paper this looks like a game where the defensive coordinators simply shrug their shoulders and hope their offense can bail them out. Oklahoma State is a respectable 3-3 against bowl competition, but two of those wins were against Houston and Troy. Oregon is 2-3 plus wins over 5-7 Stanford and Arizona State. They also have momentum because their last five opponents were at least 5-7 and since getting drubbed 44-10 at USC on October 4 their only loss was in a rainstorm at Cal.

When two offenses in the top 10 for total yards and scoring square off it is only natural to look at the best defense turning the tide, but neither stands out. Perhaps the biggest showdown will be Oklahoma State’s absolute stud wide receiver getting down the field only to find Patrick Chung waiting to lay him out. If Chung gets the better of that action this could be a rout for Oregon because while both teams run the ball well solid backs and mobile quarterbacks Bryant is by far the biggest impact player on either side catching passes. When Oregon runs it will be heavy does of Jeremiah Johnson and LaGarrette Blount who combined for an impressive 2,110 yards and 28 touchdowns. Oklahoma State is more reliant on Kendall Hunter, but when his numbers are added to Keith Toston the result is a similar 2,176 yards and 23 touchdowns. Do teams really play shootouts while running the ball? We’ll find out. Zac Robinson is the better, more experienced passer. It is easy to forget that Jeremiah Masoli was buried on the depth chart and Oregon’s quarterback situation was the butt of jokes after several injuries at the position. However, he passed for 298 and 274 yards in their final two games with 5 touchdowns and no interceptions plus 142 yards rushing. I feel like he isn’t ready for this big stage. As important as the Civil War was, rivalry games are a different atmosphere. The Cowboys will have respect for the Ducks when this one is over, but they will also get the win. The scoring is held “down” because the clock will keep running most of the game: Oklahoma State 41, Oregon 35

College Football Bowl Predictions - Part 2