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These might
not be the bowl games everyone wanted, but
hopefully some of them will provide us with exciting, unexpected
results. The
second half of our preview features just one team who finished 6-6 so
the level
of play should increase dramatically. We’ll see four of the year’s top
four
passers in total yardage and the top six in passing touchdowns. Top
running
backs are also on display with three of the top four leading rushers
and the
top 4 touchdown producers on the ground. Not to be left out seven of
the top
nine yardage leaders at wide receiver will hit the field. Let the real
games
begin.
Humanitarian
Bowl:
Georgia Tech (7-5) vs. Fresno State (8-4): This is a meeting between teams
who were terrible against bowl competition. The Yellow Jackets were 1-5
plus a
win that kept Miami, FL
from eligibility. The Bulldogs went 0-4 while dusting off two 5-7 teams
in Kansas State
and San Jose State.
The
venue in Boise, Idaho
favors Fresno State
and Georgia Tech will be led by an interim coach. Neither team had any
bad
losses over the course of the season. The Yellow Jackets lost 28-26 to Maryland
who slipped into a bowl as a result. The Bulldogs lost in the WAC only
to
Hawaii and Boise State, were blown out at Oregon when Dennis Dixon was
rolling,
and took Texas A&M to multiple overtimes before losing 47-45 on the
road.
Georgia Tech has a slightly stiffer defense, but they also played in
the ACC
where points don’t fly as furiously. Tashard Choice has been mostly
dominant on
the ground for Georgia Tech as a one man gang while Fresno
State
has gotten 400+ yards out of
four different players. That quartet has combined for 2,313 rushing
yards and
28 touchdowns, a pretty scary total. Their quarterback Tom Brandstater
has only
been sacked 17 times and threw just 5 interceptions. Georgia Tech’s
Taylor
Bennett has thrown only 6 touchdown passes. I think this FSU has a lot
of
success offensively because in bowl games scoring often times is pretty
easy to
do. The Yellow Jackets can’t keep up: Fresno State 31, Georgia
Tech 21
| Sun
Bowl: South Florida (9-3) vs. Oregon (8-4): It was a season filled with
quarterback injuries in the Pac-10, but none hit harder than Dennis
Dixon’s
season ending re-injury at Arizona.
They lost that game and the next two. Now the question is how well they
can
recover. With the Heisman contender in the mix they played all bowl
teams in
their out of conference schedule, beating all three. Overall they were
5-3
against bowl competition plus a win over 5-7 Washington
State
who otherwise would be in the
Armed Forces Bowl. The Bulls had similar success with a 4-3 record
while also
beating Louisville (6-6)
and Pittsburgh
(5-7). Both teams also had signature big wins. Oregon
went to Michigan and
blew them
out 39-7 while also ending the national title hopes of USC and Arizona
State
prior to Dixon’s
injury. South Florida had a memorable overtime win at Auburn then beat
West
Virginia two weeks later. They suffered a bit of a swoon losing three
in a row,
but closed the season scoring 48.0 points per game while winning their
last
three. The El Paso, Texas
venue is about as neutral as it gets in bowl season. There is just one
question
left. Which team of these two that suffered from the “curse of #2” will
end the
season on a high note? I don’t think Oregon’s
defense can shut down South Florida enough to
compensate
for their own offensive deficiency. Jonathan Stewart is a solid running
back,
but with an extensive game plan designed to stop him I’m not sure he
can carry
them: South Florida
30, Oregon 15 |
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Music City Bowl: Kentucky (7-5) vs. Florida State (7-5): The
Seminoles will be a shadow of their former selves with
three dozen players not making the trip for various reasons. Their
finish was
disappointing by their standards, but the season wasn’t without
highlights. They
were 4-4 against bowl teams and also beat N.C.
State
(5-7) who might have replaced
them in this bowl if not for that 27-10 victory. The big win was 27-17
at Boston College
who was then #2, but they
were later blown out on the road at Virginia Tech (40-21) and Florida
(45-12). Speaking of the Gators they also beat the Wildcats (45-37). Florida
State
did have another win over the
SEC, downing Alabama
21-14.
Despite playing in a tough conference Kentucky
actually played fewer bowl teams, finishing 3-4. They also beat Louisville
(6-6) and Vanderbilt (5-7) to keep them out of bowls. The game will be
played
in SEC country (Nashville)
and the
Wildcats have an NFL ready quarterback in Andre’ Woodson. Their only
challenge
is not assuming the outmanned ‘Noles will simply roll over. I want to
see the Kentucky
offense that rang up 37+ points eight times as opposed to the one that
scored
13 and 14 points over their last four. Defensively Florida
State
gave up 37, 40 and 45 points
over their final six games and scored 30 only once. That was way back
on
September 8 against UAB. Too much offense taking on not enough defense
is the
story here: Kentucky 38, Florida State 13
Insight
Bowl: Indiana (7-5) vs. Oklahoma State (6-6): The Hoosiers are very happy to be here. On the
plus side
they were on the brink of a really big finish without close losses to Penn
State
(36-31) or at Northwestern
(31-28). On the down side they didn’t have to play Ohio
State
or Michigan
due to the quirky Big Ten scheduling. As it was they were 2-4 against
bowl
teams plus wins that left Iowa
(6-6) and Western Michigan (5-7) home for the
holidays.
The Cowboys had a much tougher schedule facing only two teams who
finished
worse than 5-7. They were 2-5 against bowl teams while knocking Kansas
State
and Nebraska
out of the mix. Their schedule helped them a little too as they avoided
Missouri
(11-2) and Colorado
(6-6). This
game will not be decided on defense unless it is a lack thereof. Oklahoma
State
has scored 49 touchdowns
while allowing 45. Indiana
has a
42-39 edge. That’s a combined average of 7.3 touchdowns. The Cowboys
have
allowed 35+ points seven times while the Hoosiers have given up 31+ in
four of
their last six. Often times bowl games between teams who can’t play
defense
comes down to which team has an offensive star. Indiana
quarterback Kellen Lewis quietly had a solid season with 26 touchdowns
against
10 interceptions. He had five games with at least 263 yards passing and
six
with 3+ touchdowns. One issue was sacks. Against better teams in Illinois,
Michigan
State,
Penn State,
Wisconsin
and even Northwestern he went down a combined 24 times and they lost
them all. Oklahoma State
has a playmaking quarterback
in Zac Robinson who has 2,522 yards passing, 777 rushing yards and 27
total
touchdowns. He was sacked only 5 times and threw 8 interceptions. I
think he is
a bigger threat and has a better running back in Dantrell Savage to
help them
outscore the Hoosiers on a very neutral field at Sun Devil Stadium: Oklahoma State 40, Indiana 31
Chick-fil-A
Bowl:
Clemson (9-3) vs. Auburn (8-4): What I’d really like to see
here is the winning team being able to keep the mascot “Tigers” while
the loser
has to switch to something original. Even without that this is a bit of
a
grudge match with Clemson led by a Bowden after Auburn
was said to have treated his brother poorly when he departed. This is
yet
another bowl game with an SEC team playing in “SEC country” at the
Georgia Dome
which favors Auburn. The
nation has
really forgotten how good they can be. Losing to Mississippi
State
dropped them to 1-2, but
since then they lost on a late touchdown at LSU (30-24) while being
drubbed at Georgia
(45-20). This trip to the Peach
State
should be much different. Auburn
was 3-4 against bowl teams plus wins over 5-7 teams Kansas
State
and Vanderbilt. Clemson
played more competitive teams in a less top heavy schedule. They were
4-3
against bowl teams plus wins over Louisiana-Monroe (6-6) N.C.
State
(5-7) and South Carolina
(6-6). Unlike most bowl games this should be
a defensive struggle. Auburn
has
held five of their last seven opponents to no more than 10 points and
four of
those were SEC teams. Clemson has given up no more than 18 points seven
times
this season and only twice have teams topped 21 against them, a 49-26
blowout
over Louisiana-Monroe and a 41-23 loss to Virginia Tech. Both teams
gave up 22
touchdowns this season. I really like Cullen Harper who had at least
225 yards
passing for Clemson eight times. Davis and Spiller give them a 1-2
punch in the
backfield as well. Auburn’s
offense
is less reliable and that should be the difference: Clemson
20, Auburn 17
Outback
Bowl: Tennessee (9-4) vs. Wisconsin (9-3): If Erik Ainge had kept his cool
in the SEC title game the Volunteers would be in the Sugar Bowl. If the
Badgers
had been able to stop Juice Williams and Rashard Mendenhall they would
be in
the Rose Bowl. There is a level of disappointment on both sides, but
for Tennessee
the feeling is very fresh while Wisconsin
has had a chance to absorb falling from a #5 ranking with the
aforementioned
loss to Illinois. Tampa,
Florida
is a fairly neutral site although Tennessee
has played in Gainesville
already
and their fans will have a shorter trip. Then again, Wisconsin is
making their
fourth straight trip to the Sunshine State for a bowl game having
played in the
last two Capital One bowls (Orlando) and right here in 2005. An SEC
team has
been the opponent each time with wins the last two years over Arkansas
and Auburn while losing to
Georgia.
History seems to be on their side, but Wisconsin
played a softer schedule. They were only 3-3 against bowl teams while
also
beating Washington State
(5-7) and Iowa (6-6).
Two of
their losses were of the blowout variety on the road at Penn
State
(38-7) and Ohio State
(38-17). Tennessee
was 5-4 against bowl competition having also knocked off South
Carolina (6-6) and Vanderbilt (5-7). The only
duck on
their schedule was Arkansas State
although they also had their share of road blowouts at Cal
(45-31) Florida (59-20)
and Alabama
(41-17). However, down the stretch they were playing very well. This
should be
another high scoring game with Wisconsin having given up 31+ six times
while
Tennessee scored 31+ eight times. Ainge has the senior experience and
the only
times he failed to throw for at least 216 yards were three games when
they won
by at least three touchdowns. The Badgers wanted to counter with
running back
P.J. Hill, but he is hurt. Without him they sputtered past Minnesota
41-34 in their finale. The Gophers went 1-11. I like the Vols to
rebound
nicely: Tennessee 28, Wisconsin 18
Cotton
Bowl: Missouri (11-2) vs. Arkansas (8-4): Two of the Heisman finalists
will be on display in Dallas
and
should play pivotal roles in the outcome. Chase Daniel is a bit of a
Drew Brees
clone at six feet tall, but coming off 3,527 yards of passing last year
with 28
touchdowns he had 4,170/33 this season. He also has just 20
interceptions in 26
games. He had at least 294 yards passing every time out in their 5-1
start, a
streak broken when he threw only 19 passes in a 41-10 win over Texas
Tech.
Overall he topped 284 yards 10 times. His only black mark was losing
twice to Oklahoma,
but the Tigers were still good against bowl teams with a 5-2 record
plus wins
over three teams who went 5-7 in Kansas State,
Nebraska
and Western Michigan. The Razorbacks went 2-4
and didn’t
play Georgia
or Florida.
Their star Darren
McFadden has two second place finishes in the Heisman voting, piling up
over
1,600 yards in those seasons with 4,485 for his three year career. He
wasn’t perfect
this season, but nine times he topped 110 yards rushing and with 304
carries
proved he is NFL ready. There is also the matter of his sidekick Felix
Jones
who has 1,100+ yards in each of the past two seasons. Jones had six
games with
100+ yards. Auburn was the
only
team to contain them both. Stop me if you’ve heard this before. There
will be
offensive firepower. They have combined to score 115 touchdowns this
season or
4.6 per game. Arkansas
came on
strong down the stretch winning five of their final six. They have 10
games
with 29+ points scored, but gave up 37.3 over their final four
including the
multiple overtime win over LSU. Missouri
scored at least 31 points in every regular season game before losing
38-17 to Oklahoma
in the Big XII title game. Their defense also faltered in their last
four,
allowing 31.0 points over that stretch. Get your scorecards ready. Las
Vegas might be interested to know that Arkansas
leads the nation allowing opposing quarterbacks to complete 45.7% of
their
passes. They could force Daniel into some mistakes. Missouri
counters with a pretty good run defense, but I’m not sure they can
contain both
Jones and McFadden. The statistics could bear that out though because
their
numbers are quite similar to the one aforementioned team who did (Auburn).
When push comes to shove, I’ll take the running backs in an upset: Arkansas 27, Missouri 24
Capital
One Bowl: Michigan (8-4) vs. Florida (9-3): The Gators won’t travel far to
watch their team in Orlando.
Tim
Tebow will try to avoid the jinx haunting Heisman winners in bowl
games. Troy
Smith’s Ohio State
team was blown out in last year’s title game while Reggie Bush had a
key fumble
in a losing effort the previous season. This won’t be for all the
marbles
though, and the Wolverines started 0-2 primarily because of running
quarterbacks. Superman is their worst nightmare. Florida
has faced a very competitive schedule with only one opponent finishing
worse
than 5-7. They were 4-3 against bowl teams and beat four others who
were on the
cusp of qualifying. Obviously the Big Ten wasn’t nearly as hard to
navigate
this season as the SEC. Michigan’s opening loss to Appalachian State
might be
lessened after the Mountaineers won the FCS title, but it’s still a
lower level
team. They were also 4-3 against bowl competition plus a win over
Northwestern
(6-6) but three of their losses were by at least 11 points. Florida
lost heartbreakers to Auburn
(20-17) and LSU (28-24) with Georgia
(42-30) the only team to really handle them. They can stop the running
of Mike
Hart and even if Tim Tebow isn’t right as rain physically he will
destroy this
defense. If you believe the hype he will also cure cancer and end world
hunger
in the process: Florida 34, Michigan 15
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