Justin, Obama, Paris, Clinton, Britney, bin Laden, and the Halo Idols of the NFL
By Bill Chuang
Head Columnist
10/16/07
Archive

In a cheap attempt to increase web hits, I’m going to try to include members of the neobrat pack, political figures, and popular wastes of time in all my future titles.

Believe it or not, I’m on a rickety old school bus heading from Duluth to Minneapolis.  My flight to Minneapolis was fogged in from Duluth, so they gave us the option of taking this bus to Minneapolis in order to make our connections.  That’s Duluth for ya’.  Anyway, since it’s a 2 ½ hour trip, I indulged in a little fantasizing while dodging the chickens and pigs brought on board by the locals.  Besides the fantasy where there’s a terrorist on the bus and I save everyone by tying my shoe laces together and using my shoes as nun chucks , thus earning the adoration of Sandra Bulluck who happens to be sitting 5 rows back, there’s the one about the Steelers winning the Super Bowl.. Since I’m married and wouldn’t know what to do with an appreciative Sandra Bulluck, I of course began to wonder what happens after the Super Bowl.   Let me see…

(Cue the Wavy Lines)

The Steelers are running victoriously off the field in Arizona.  Willie Parker is proclaiming he’s going to Disney Land.  To get here, the Steelers had won a hard fought battle against the Patriots in the AFC championship game in which Tom Brady tore both ACL’s and rotator cuffs, and sustained several 3rd degree turf burns on his face, becoming so disfigured that Giselle dumped him (hey it’s my fantasy).  The refs tried to give the Patriots the game by invoking the tuck rule after every one of the Patriots seven turnovers and even after two Steelers field goals. The Steelers then win the Super Bowl in a laugher against Seattle, 51-0.    Holmgren of course complained that they would have won if they weren’t playing against the Steelers and the refs.  Now the real fun begins (and I’m not talking about the pro bowl).  There are some intriguing issues that will come up this offseason.

Will the Patriots be able to resign Randy Moss?  This preseason, there was a debate among the media as to whether or not Randy Moss would fit in as a Patriot.  6 weeks into the season, I think we can put that argument to rest.  While Moss may have cooled down after his sizzling start, he is still having one of the greatest starts to a season ever experienced by an NFL receiver.  Through 6 games, he has 8 touchdowns and over 600 yards.  This projects to 21 touchdowns and over 1600 yards over a full season.  The Patriots got him for a 4th round pick and are paying him a paltry 2 million dollars this season.  Because he was signed for only one year, he will be a free agent at the end of the season.  Assuming he finishes with the above numbers, he will be one of the hottest commodities ever to hit free agency.  When he joined the Patriots, he took a huge pay cut, from around 9 million per year to 2 million.  He did this to revive his career and to possibly win a championship with the Patriots.  From what I’ve read, he loves playing with Tom Brady, but does he love playing with him enough to forgo potentially 30-40 million dollars.  With such a monster year, and the upcoming increase in the salary cap, some team will surely offer him 10 million per year over 5 years, with a guaranteed 30 million. 

After all, the Dolphins paid an aging and ineffective Joey Porter a guaranteed 20 million last year.  Would the Patriots be willing to part with that kind of cash in order to keep him?  I doubt it.  After splurging in free agency to get Adalius Thomas and Donte Stallworth, then resigning Ty Warren, the Patriots will not have much cap space, especially with the looming free agency of Ben Watson, Vince Wilfork, and Asante Samuel again.  The Patriots cannot afford to lose all those players to keep Moss.  The bigger question right now is whether or not the Patriots need Moss.  Donte Stallworth is good enough to be a number one receiver and Wes Welker could be a great number 2.  They drafted Chad Jackson in the second round last year to be an impact receiver, but he has been hurt.  They also have Jabar Gaffney and Troy Brown when he comes back from the PUP.  They this could be a very good group of receivers, but the presence of Moss makes them much better.  When they played the Patriots, the Browns decided that they would not let Moss beat them, so they assigned extra defenders to guard Moss.  The extra attention paid to Moss of course allowed Brady to take advantage of Watson, Welker, and Stallworth who all benefited from Moss’ presence.  This however may not be enough to convince Pioli and Belichick that they need Moss, especially at the price he will likely command.

Moss may give the Patriots a hometown discount to stay with Brady, but I doubt he’d sign for less than 7 million a season which the Patriots still could not afford.  Brady could decide to restructure his contract in order to resign his new favorite receiver, but I doubt that the Patriots could free up enough to resign him simply by restructuring contracts.

The Patriots may decide to franchise him.  The going rate for a franchise wide receiver will probably be around 6 million per year, which the Patriots probably could absorb for one year.  The problem with franchising Moss is how he would feel about having his freedom restricted.  He is on record as saying he plays hard only when he wants to.  If he is not happy with his contract situation, he may not want to play hard.  Moss may take the Deion Sanders route and rent himself out as kind of a hired gun to any Super Bowl contenders. That way, he’d get the money and the championships.  He could be the final piece to the puzzle in San Diego.

What will the Patriots do with the first pick in the draft?  As I watched the Patriots dismantle the Cowboys last night, I began to think I have never seen a better football team.  The scary thing for the rest of the NFL is that they will get better when Richard Seymour returns from the PUP and Lawrence Maroney gets healthy.  The really scary thing is that this team could have the top pick in the draft next year.  San Francisco traded their first round pick next year to the Patriots for the rights to draft Joe Staley.  The way they are playing this year, and with Alex Smith still injured, there is a possibility they could have the worst record in the league giving New England the first pick in the draft.  Think about that.  The probable Super Bowl champion could have the top pick in the draft.  This is unprecedented.  The nearest similar situation I can think of is the Dallas Cowboys.  They went 11-3 in 1976, then lost their only playoff game that year to the Rams.  They then traded up for the second pick in the 1977 draft to get Tony Dorsett.  The Patriots are so loaded, they wouldn’t even have a spot for another franchise type player, and they certainly couldn’t afford to pay JaMarcus Russell type money for a top pick.  The chances are that they’d trade down for two first rounders, and thumb their nose at Roger Goodell who attempted to hurt them by taking away their own first rounder.  With these picks, they could draft the eventual replacements for Bruschi, Vrabel.

To make this even more bizarre, the Patriots’ probable opponent in the Super Bowl could get the number two pick.  The Browns traded their pick next year to the Cowboys in order to draft Brady Quinn.  Their pathetic start to this season had Cowboy fans dreaming of Darren McFadden with a star on his helmet.  The Browns seem to have turned it around, though, while teams like the Rams and Dolphins are still looking for their first wins, so a top five pick is not likely.

Who will win the Bill Cowher sweepstakes?  I heard Bill Cowher interviewed the other night on Sirius NFL radio.  He swore that he would not be coaching in 2008.  Steeler fans had heard this before.  He swore he would not retire after last season, but of course he did, so I’m betting he coaches somewhere in 2008.  I’ve read rumors that he may eventually end up in Washington where Snyder could pay him the money he feels he deserves, Carolina near his new home, Cleveland where he began his NFL career as both a player and a coach, and  Buffalo for some reason.  The idea that Pittsburgh’s native son who brought the Lombardi trophy home could end up in Cleveland would have been  abhorrent to most Steeler fans prior to this season, but Cowher has burned his bridges in Pittsburgh by picking them, on national TV,  to finish third in the division behind Cincinnati and Baltimore.  I think he will end up in San Diego.  Even though the Chargers have played better the past two weeks, they have yet to beat a team with a winning record this season.  They will probably win the weak AFC west division, but Norv Turner was not hired to get them to the playoffs.  Schottenheimer did that.  Turner needs to get them to the Super Bowl, and I don’t think he’s capable of getting that from this team.  Cowher would be a great fit in San Diego.  They play the aggressive type of

3-4 defense he played in Pittsburgh.  He would have the best running back and tight end in the game, and, in Philip Rivers, he would have the quarterback he really wanted in the 2004 draft.  Unlike his mentor, Schottenheimer, he has shown he can take a team to the big game and win it.  If Cowher shows any interest in the San Diego job, the Spanos’ should jump at the opportunity.

While on the subject of coaches, I wonder if Marvin Lewis will be coaching the Bengals next year.  He was hailed as the savior when he arrived in Cincinnati and brought them to an 8-8 record his first year.  Since then, he has had only one winning season, amid much higher expectations.  This year, the team seems to be imploding.  They’ve lost games they should be winning.  While it’s not too late to turn it around, they probably need to get to the playoffs to save his job.  With the strong play of Pittsburgh, Baltimore, and even Cleveland within the division, the Bengals’ best hope is for a wildcard spot, but with the surprising strength of teams in the AFC south this year as well as in their own division, a wildcard spot is unlikely.