Cox's BCS Bowl Predictions and College Football Rankings
by Gregory Cox
College Football Director
11/11/09

Is it safe to say I jinxed both Oregon and Iowa? Maybe it seems like my argument last week was hogwash after they each suffered losses to unranked teams. I consider it proving my argument. Their paths were tough to navigate and it finally caught up to them. For Iowa obviously losing their starting quarterback, while he turned it over for the game deciding touchdown, was the determining factor. For Oregon it was really about the rigorous Pac-10 schedule and my assessment of them at a mythical 11-1 included potential wins. I’m not even sure they can win at Arizona or against Oregon State, but my point was that had they run out it would have meant more than navigating the Big XII for sure and possibly the SEC.

Where are we now? Well, for all of those people saying how exciting the regular season is as a basis for defending the BCS we are exactly where we have been since September. I find it not very exciting to wait for the SEC winner to take on Texas. Rooting for teams to lose is all fans can do at this point and how stupid is that? If I’m a Cincinnati fan, my team is doing everything in its power to reach 12-0. Not only does that not seem good enough to play for a title it might land them #4 in the standings or even #5 if the SEC title game between presumably unbeaten Florida and Alabama is close.

Last year I did BCS bowl projections and to be completely honest the ridiculous nature of this system has taken a lot of the fun out of it. I’ll give it a whirl with just a few weeks left just to let everyone know what I think we have coming, for better or worse. I’m going to ignore most of the “proper” selection process other than honoring the champions appearing in their host bowls. These are the best teams as I see them at the end of the regular season and the best pairings.

TITLE GAME: Alabama vs. Texas – On one side the Longhorns just need to battle complacency and perhaps deal with a nasty Nebraska defense, hello Mr. Suh, and they are in. If it gets close Mack Brown will whine enough to get them in and cry about last season’s injustice right? The other end is the SEC champion, and I like them over Florida in dramatic fashion.

ROSE BOWL: Oregon vs. Ohio State – This game is lacking the sizzle of USC at 11-1 facing off against Iowa at 12-0 as many expected it to be a couple weeks ago. Now, even with their stumble at Stanford the Ducks should have enough offense to get them to Pasadena. The Buckeyes have it all in front of them and with their defense it is hard to see them losing to Iowa without the season opening backfield of Stanzi and Robinson.

FIESTA BOWL: USC vs. Boise State – Familiar territory for the Broncos, and perhaps a glimpse at what this team would be facing if they joined the closest available “Big Six” conference. For all the Trojans have gone through this season, they can still finish 10-2 and comfortably in the top 8 of the final BCS standings. Maybe, say #7, which is where I ranked them to start the season? As for Boise State it appears that perception is holding them down from the #3 perch I opened them at, but a win in this game would make them this season’s Utah and certainly give them the unofficial Pac-10 “title”.

SUGAR BOWL: Florida vs. TCU – Here’s hoping the selections reflect a bit of a revenge factor. Last year this was also the SEC title game loser against an undefeated team from the Mountain West right? Trust me, even if the Gators lose they will not pull an Alabama and fall flat on their face. The Horned Frogs are poised to finish #3 in the BCS which legitimizes them as a high profile opponent for the defending champs.

ORANGE BOWL: Georgia Tech vs. Cincinnati – This bowl seems to have totally lost its “wow” factor, and matching up the ACC against the Big East has a lot to do with that. If both of these teams run out and finish a combined 24-1 will the perception change? The bigger problem, hopefully, will be what to do with the Bearcats at 13-0 if they win this game. A split title seems out of the question, but what if they win and (in my scenario) TCU beats Florida to also finish 13-0? Three undefeated teams would have to put this system into tilt right? Don’t count on it happening, or mattering if it does.

#1 (2) Alabama (9-0): At some point I need to make a stand and choose between the Tide and Gators. Obviously I believe the SEC title game will go the other way this time. It’s more than that though. Alabama just looks a little better right now. I wish both teams had an offense. Then we might be seeing one of the greatest games in college history.

#2 (1) Florida (9-0): Oh Brandon Spikes. You are so selfless after trying to blind an opposing player. Cheers for that. Has anyone noticed the only currently ranked team they have beaten is LSU? The defense has dominated, but does anyone fear any of the offenses they worked over? I’m just calling it like I see it.  

#3 (3) Texas (9-0): Eventually, a team as deep as the Longhorns will wear down a team like UCF. They did struggle quite a bit trying to score on the Knights, an average Conference USA member. I’m starting to wonder if a fired up Nebraska defense, assuming the ‘Huskers win the North, might spoil their BCS title plans.  

#4 (4) Boise State (9-0): It kills me when people act like they almost lost on the road to Louisiana Tech. Yes, the Broncos were clinging to a 30-28 lead when the Bulldogs scored. However, Boise State went up and down the field on these guys and doubled them up in total yardage. Even if it’s on ESPN no one bothers to watch. They were never going to lose, and are a step closer to 13-0.

#5 (5) Cincinnati (9-0): After giving up 47 points in the month of October the Bearcats gave up almost as much in their more exciting than it had to be 47-45 win over Connecticut. This is no way to impress BCS voters, but with two Friday night games and a potential “Big East Championship” game at Pittsburgh left there might be enough time for that.  

#6 (6) TCU (9-0): They are starting to open eyes with rout after rout. Since escaping Air Force 20-17 their past four wins have been by 31+ points. This week’s showdown against Utah is for all the marbles in the MWC and a win likely cements their spot in the BCS assuming two more wins over lightweights.

#7 (10) Georgia Tech (9-1): I said last week the Yellow Jackets didn’t “feel like a top 10 team”. Then they went out and pretty much proved me right, sweating past Wake Forest 30-27 in OT on their home field. A win is a win as the saying goes, and in the wide open ACC it is an accomplishment to keep piling them up.  

#8 (14) Pittsburgh (8-1): Rankings are difficult because I am compelled to list teams based on results as opposed to potential. They have lost just once, 38-31 on the road to mediocre N.C. State. As the season wears on the Panthers are getting stronger, but the weight of their schedule is yet to come.

#9 (7) Iowa (9-1): There will be plenty of time to dump the Hawkeyes when they lose this week at Ohio State, and possibly against Minnesota after that. For now the fair thing to do is keeping them in the top 10. It was a really rough way to lose and I can literally feel Stanzi’s pain having turned my foot in a similar manner last week. Without him, even with his horrific play during the first three quarters of games, it is going to be tough.

#10 (9) LSU (7-2): I’m still not sure how tough the Tigers are. They did play two of the consensus best teams in the country very well. If anyone is worried about a bad call supposedly costing them the game forget it. LSU was not going to score another touchdown on ‘Bama.

#11 (13) Houston (8-1): I called their game against Tulsa over on Twitter, and was not alone in doing so. As maddening as it is to see them need a miracle to beat a team like this, how scary are they? No one would want to play this team in a bowl game. Could this week’s trip to UCF be a trap? The Knights can bring it on defense as Texas just found out.

#12 (8) Oregon (7-2): Although I lacked the courage to predict it their loss to Stanford was about as surprising to me as the mailman arriving late when I’m waiting on a great movie from Netflix. The Pac-10 is a very balanced conference and the emotional letdown combined with the travel took a toll on them.

#13 (12) Utah (8-1): Are they really 8-1? I keep waiting for them to stumble against and it has not happened. Two of the toughest three games on their schedule remain, both on the road. This week it is TCU and the finale is at similarly revenge minded BYU. I can’t see them hanging with the Horned Frogs and that ends their outside shot at returning to the BCS.

#14 (16) USC (7-2): The Trojans are really reeling. At least their defense got on track, holding Arizona State to 9 points after giving up 110 the previous three games. Now the offense is in question with Barkley’s 7/22 passing performance. They were 2/13 converting third downs and even with a 4-1 edge in turnovers had to sweat this one out until the end.

#15 (18) Ohio State (8-2): Their season took a serious swing for the better with a 24-7 win at Penn State. Things only got better when Iowa lost starting quarterback Ricky Stanzi. Now the Bucks are a win over a team playing without their signal caller and best running back away from locking down the Big Ten.

#16 (15) Miami, FL (7-2): Unfortunately for the ‘Canes, no matter how points they put up on Virginia the ACC Coastal division title is probably out of reach. Their OT loss, at home, to Clemson will haunt them. I’m wondering if this team can retain focus and win this week at North Carolina. It’s no lock.

#17 (17) Arizona (6-2): Although the Wildcats have beaten a few good teams there is no doubt the toughest challenges are ahead. Carrying a national ranking is a burden, and so is being in an unlikely chase for the Pac-10 title. After dispatching the two bottom feeders at home they’re off to California sans Jahvid Best.

#18 (20) Oklahoma State (7-2): The Cowboys were called “this year’s Texas Tech” before the season started. Losing to Houston and getting routed by Texas are certainly black eyes, but they have an opportunity to finish 11-2 just like the Red Raiders. Incidentally, that’s their opponent this week.

#19 (11) Penn State (8-2): They save their worst performances for the biggest games. Or are they just not very good? With games against Indiana (4-6) and at Michigan State (5-5) left can we call them a horribly soft 10-2? It’s a good bet.

#20 (21) Wisconsin (7-2): Things got interesting at Indiana, but the Hoosiers have been a tough out in the Big Ten. This week’s home finale against Michigan will be intriguing because the Wolverines are scratching for bowl eligibility. Because they don’t play Penn State the Badgers could be a similarly soft 10-2 heading into their bowl.