Cox Rants on the BCS, Plus His College Football Rankings
by Gregory Cox
College Football Director
11/2/09

I guess it is time to talk a little BCS. Like most people I hate this system and discussing the projected pairings simply put gives me heartburn. There are things I want to say this week and points I want to make. It seems like we are zeroing in on a showdown between the winners of the two best conferences in the BCS. So get ready for Iowa vs. Oregon right? Oh, you think I’m kidding. This is my point. Everyone seems to be stuck in 2008 when it felt like the navigating the Big XII or SEC was more difficult than an asteroid field in a Star Wars movie. Has anyone stopped to notice that this season neither conference seems nearly as dangerous?

Let’s look at the BCS standings for a moment. There are 4 teams in the top 21 from the Pac-10 and Big Ten. Yes, the Big Ten. I don’t program those computers and my vote doesn’t count. I’m just reporting the facts. The SEC has 3 teams and in fairness they are 1-3-9. The Big XII goes 2-19-24. So remind me again which conference is tougher to get through unscathed as everyone assumes it should be the Florida/Alabama winner against Texas?

First let’s talk about Oregon. They did not have to schedule two non-BCS powers in the form of Boise State and Utah, but they did just that. Their third game outside of Pac-10 play was Purdue, a team that has beaten current BCS #16 Ohio State. In addition to loading up the schedule they control, they have to deal with every team in the conference and other than Washington State all of them (remember, UCLA beat Tennessee on the road and Washington lost a 31-23 struggle to LSU) are capable of delivering a knockout. The argument against a team like Boise State, who beat the Ducks to open the season, is that going 12-0 versus lesser competition is not as impressive as going 11-1 in a BCS conference. Well, I present this argument to the public. Is going 11-1 in a tougher Pac-10 including having to deal with Boise State, Utah and Purdue not more impressive than Texas going 13-0 in the Big XII this season? I emphasize I am talking about this season, not 2008 when ESPN was pretending the Big XII was the NFC South.

I’m here to say I would take 11-1 Oregon over 13-0 Texas if given that choice. It is not a bias against Texas, and certainly not their fault Oklahoma lost Sam Bradford and Oklahoma State lost Dez Bryant. It is their fault they scheduled the sisters of the poor outside of conference play. Given 4 chances to line up someone who can play, they chose Louisiana-Monroe, Wyoming, UTEP and UCF. Only Wyoming came on the road. Purdue, Oregon’s worst scheduled foe, would wipe those teams out. So tell me, is sweeping the Oklahoma schools more impressive than beating USC and Utah? Not according to the BCS standings where both the teams the Ducks beat are ranked higher. They are punished for a loss they suffered at Boise State, which is a setback Texas can’t have suffered because they scheduled a bunch of lightweights. If I’m voting right now, Oregon is more worthy.

The next part of my argument centers on Iowa also facing a tougher string of opponents compared to, for argument’s sake, current BCS #1 Florida. Obviously I’m not here to suggest the Hawkeyes are better than the Gators. It’s just not true based on what I have seen out of both teams. However, we are discussing a resume and the perception that going through the SEC is more difficult than the Big Ten. As I mentioned, more teams from the Big Ten are in the BCS standings. Add a fifth to the resume of Iowa because they beat current BCS #18 Arizona. Florida, who similar to Texas schedules like a scared teenage girl, never leaves their home state in their non-conference slate. Charleston Southern and FIU are a complete joke for starters. Troy rules the Sun Belt which is not saying much. Florida State is mediocre at best and the only thing close to a respectable opponent. Unlike the Pac-10 there is no round robin in the SEC with 12 teams. This year the Gators don’t have to get through Auburn or Mississippi, who both having winning records to date. For those who suggest they would steamroll them if the games happened, uh, Ole Miss beat them last year in the Swamp. Iowa also avoids teams in their conference play, but in their case it is Illinois (2-6) and Purdue (3-6). They draw all of the best teams and running out unscathed would entail road wins at Penn State, Wisconsin and Ohio State who are all currently in the top 21 of the BCS. Florida, by contrast, won at LSU. It was a great win at Death Valley under the lights I’m not arguing that part, but it’s one big road victory compared to a potential 3 for Iowa.

Again, I point all these things out not to shout from the rooftops that Oregon should be on a collision course to face Iowa in the BCS title game instead of the Rose Bowl. Instead, the aim is to shake a few of my readers out of the opinion brainwashed ESPN or CBS viewers seem to be afflicted by. The Big XII and SEC are not clearly dominant conferences in 2009. Their winners should not be automatically given a spot in the title game. I haven’t even mentioned poor Cincinnati, who scheduled a visit to Oregon State and plays in a conference with four other teams sitting on 6-2 or better records. That’s not tough to get through undefeated? There is zero discussion about them getting into the BCS unless Texas loses, which is an absolute shame.

If you are ready to send me an email with the subject “WTF” to greg@thefootballexpert.com bear in mind I still believe the SEC champion and Texas are the best teams in the country. However, what Oregon and Iowa will have gone through (assuming all teams continue winning) might be tougher. Finally, I should mention that Boise State at 12-0 carrying a win over the Ducks would make a compelling argument for inclusion in some sort of disaster scenario if Oregon finishes 11-1 while several other contenders lose. On that count I would defer to the body of work again. Boise State might in fact sweep through the Pac-10 schedule unscathed, but I seriously doubt it. Now that I have ranted a bit let’s get to this week’s rankings. This time only I’m leaving off the other poll rankings because there is not much disparity.

#1 (1) Florida (8-0): I felt like the Cocktail Party against Georgia was an opportunity for them to make a statement. Mission accomplished with a 41-17 demolition of the Bulldogs. Aside from a little eye poking attempt from linebacker Brandon Spikes this team is right on course for a title defense.

#2 (2) Alabama (8-0): It was a perfect time for a week off. They were able to shake off any remnants of escaping against Tennessee and rest up for LSU. It is effectively the SEC West title game and the first team to 10 wins.

#3 (3) Texas (8-0): I feel like the Longhorns are the school bully calling out younger kids to the quad so they can beat them up in public. Did anyone expect Oklahoma State to match scores with them sans Hunter and Bryant? Color me unaffected – again. The irony is having them on course to walk into a possibly undeserved bid this year after getting passed over last year.

#4 (4) Boise State (8-0): I’m actually tempted to launch the Broncos up a slot. Some say they don’t beat anyone. Others scoff at their blue turf advantage. They have now won games played in California, Ohio, Oklahoma and Hawaii with a Friday Night special at Louisiana Tech on tap. If the big boys wanted a piece of that blue turf they would oblige. Believe me, they don’t.

#5 (5) Cincinnati (8-0): Another rout with their backup quarterback has the Bearcats hoping for a stumble ahead of them paves the way for an unexpected trip to the BCS title game. Their schedule is very favorable as Tony Pike returns to practice. All three games this month are at home sandwiched around a bye week. Everything points to a December 5 game at Pittsburgh.

#6 (6) TCU (8-0): I kind of laugh when everyone (this means you Desmond Howard) suddenly buys into this team as if they had been high on them all along. The defense is nasty and the offense is potent. Revenge against Utah looms in two weeks and at 12-0 the BCS can’t deny them.

#7 (7) Iowa (9-0): Those of you following us on Twitter know I watched just about every minute of their improbable comeback against Indiana. It is forgivable from the standpoint that wind was a major issue and they lost their top running back, but when I put them on upset alert I expected more like an ugly 20-17 win as opposed to falling behind so far God himself had to step in. If Penn State beats Ohio State this week the Big Ten title and Rose Bowl bid is theirs even without a win at the Horseshoe, but obviously they want more.

#8 (8) Oregon (7-1): Putting the Ducks higher in my rankings last week was more of a reaction to a common opponent (Washington) than believing they were better than USC. I did pick them to beat the Trojans, but no one thought 613 yards of offense and 47 points were possible. Two dangerous conference road games loom, this week at Stanford and Arizona later in the month so don’t book them at 11-1 just yet.

#9 (9) LSU (7-1): Against an opponent like Tulane I really expected a more impressive stat line from Charles Scott. He mustered up 112 rushing yards on 18 carries and scored twice with a long run of 16. I’m pretty sure this offense is not ready for a trip to Alabama. The defense obviously is up for anyone in the country. We’ll see what happens. The SEC West and another shot at Florida are on the line.

#10 (11) Georgia Tech (8-1): After putting up 98 points in two trips to SEC country I get the feeling the Yellow Jackets are wondering what all the hype is about. Isn’t this conference built on defense? Well, yeah, at the top as they found out in the bowl game against LSU. I feel compelled to put them this high based on results. They don’t feel like a top 10 team to me.

#11 (12) Penn State (8-1): Blowout after blowout can’t erase their loss to Iowa. Now they are in a position to actually help the Hawkeyes by knocking off Ohio State. Their ceiling seems to be an at-large bid at 11-1. The BCS would be a mess (surprise, surprise) if they win this game and Ohio State beats Iowa. Do the Nittany Lions get an at-large if two non-BCS teams finish 12-0?

#12 (19) Utah (7-1): Having lost just once, 31-24 at Oregon, looks better every week doesn’t it? Sure, navigating the MWC is not as difficult as any BCS conference, but you see my point after witnessing the Ducks destroying USC. All they can do is handle their own business which has been close wins and now a quarterback controversy. This week against doormat New Mexico gives them a chance to figure it out because indecision is a recipe for a beat down at TCU in two weeks.

#13 (13) Houston (7-1): I would love to see this offense against BCS opponents week after week. They pretty much lost a tennis match to UTEP. If that game had a fifth quarter I’m sure Keenum would have pulled it out as he did this past week against Southern Miss. Even with wins over three BCS teams it is hard to figure out where they stand. Can they beat every team below them? Probably not, but these aren’t predictions.

#14 (18) Pittsburgh (7-1): If the Panthers let the Big East get away from them fatigue will not be the reason. After an open week they face Syracuse. Then they step out of conference play for Notre Dame followed by another break. Very smart scheduling and it sets them up nicely for the 1-2 punch of West Virginia (road) and Cincinnati to close for all the BCS marbles.

#15 (17) Miami, FL (6-2): A little luck never hurts. If Riley Skinner was able to finish what he started they probably lose at Wake Forest. He had 349 yards passing, but was sidelined for their final two drives in a 28-27 loss. It was a typical letdown effort on the road for the ‘Canes who are young and learning.

#16 (10) USC (6-2): Where do they go from here? I’m being serious. Even their win at Ohio State isn’t such a big deal unless the Buckeyes get by Penn State this week. There is no Pac-10 title at the end of the rainbow this time even at 7-2. I full expect them to win out with ease. After going to Arizona State next they are home the rest of the way. Plenty of time for everyone to forget the Ducks hammered them.

#17 (20) Arizona (5-2): In their off week the Wildcats I’m sure watched the Oregon-USC game and dreamed of it not being the unofficial Pac-10 title game most, including me, said it was. Whipping Washington State this week shouldn’t be a problem. Then things get interesting starting at Cal. If they win that one I will reassess their chances at a stunning conference title. Don’t count on it.

#18 (21) Ohio State (7-2): The Buckeyes have gotten by on their defense all season. This week at Penn State, and next week against Iowa if the offense fails to show up this could be a disastrous season. Well, for them that is. A lot of teams would love to be 8-4. Mind you, I’m not predicting that finish. I think the Bucks can stand up and be counted in a still to be determined Big Ten race.

#19 (26) California (6-2): At this point in the season it is almost just as much about quality losses as it is quality wins. Even though they were blown away by Oregon and USC, those are the only two blemishes. This week’s gritty win at Arizona State seems to be an indicator the Bears will not crumble late in the season. Three quality conference opponents in a row loom, but all the games will be played in the Bay Area.

#20 (14) Oklahoma State (6-2): I feel as if I should be knocking the Cowboys down more, but I can’t find teams worthy of putting above them. They clearly are not in the same class as Texas, but few teams are. Their only wins over teams with winning records are at Texas A&M (36-31) and against Missouri (33-17). We’re left to wonder “what if?” when it comes to the suspension of Dez Bryant.